Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,317 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  3. Bemused: he is far too relaxed with the media for a man in his position.

    And I don’t think it’s because he’s a good actor. I think it’s because he knows he has not committed any crime. Now, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t sailed close to the wind. But as long as he hasn’t actually committed a crime, not only is he good, but that places others – like Abbott – who have said some things publicly that have crossed the line (phrase of the day!), firmly in the firing line.

    One can but hope 😆

  5. rummel,

    howard spent $200 million on advertising and the only return was to get him re elected.

    The NBN adversing will give a return from ISP’s or when eventually sold.

  7. Howard’s propaganda bill was horrendous.

    And Gillard has tossed a sitting pm under the bus to save Labor. I expect the trapped Labor animal to start thrashing around spraying million and millions on adds to convince labor members to still vote for Labor let alone on the swing voter.

  9. Don
    Something I’ve never understood about PB is that some people here think that what is said on this blog counts…

    While i take your point about relevance it seems to me what happens on this blog represents a small subsection of broader society and is at least as valid as a poll 17 months before an election.

    @Bemused
    I am in Kevin Rudd’s electorate.

    I agree grass roots campaigning is not a panacea. And sometimes it is difficult. However surely the attitude of members and supporters internally is very important in the current circumstance.

  10. guytaur,

    Wish we could transfer Barack to the ALP. You know, like they do with soccer players and stuff.

    Mind you, the Americans do need him at the moment.

  11. my say

    libs just whinge after they have voted for them

    you are too nice, my say
    to me, they’re schmucks. – before or after voting.

    Their philosophy is too individualistic for my liking.

    Take for instance the “nuclear family” phenomenon.
    A Liberal policy
    Totally destroyed the idea of the extended family, including the village, in the responsibility of raising children.
    Drove apart centuries of whole families, and other families, looking after each other.
    Promoted the idea of selfishness,

    And when taken to the extreme,
    forcing both parents to work to survive,
    leaving kids to look after themselves.

    And then they have the gall to blame Labor
    for rising crime, for children being neglected.

    They don’t give a stuff about anyone else
    As long as they’re okay jack.
    And they’ve got enough moolah to buy themselves out of trouble.

    And then when trouble strikes,
    they want the community, the village, to bail them out.

    Hypocrites, one and all.

  12. On the NBN, I don’t know if this article has been linked to here (and if not, now it has)

    http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2012/04/27/3490479.htm

    – a useful article to tuck away somewhere for those times you need to argue with an idiot..

    …there’s nothing cheap about the Coalition’s plans. In fact they could well be monstrously more expensive.

    It’s an oft-mentioned fallacy that the NBN is all about providing fast internet access to people. That’s almost the least important part. Amongst other things, it will form a major backbone of the health service, revolutionizing healthcare for all Australians – especially the elderly and those in rural areas – while at the same time saving the $100bn annual health budget so much money that these benefits alone will pay for the entire rollout.

    And if paying for itself through health benefits wasn’t enough….

    The NBN will also provide Australia with a “smart grid” which allows for wildly superior and more-efficient energy distribution around the country. The NBN’s ability to micromanage energy distribution (by pinpointing more-precisely where and when energy is required) has saved so much money in areas where similar deployments have occurred that it too should pay for the entire rollout on its own.

    Oh, look. It pays for itself twice.

    And then…

    The NBN will also revolutionise education – especially for those in rural areas – with kids being able to access the best lessons in the world and interact with teachers who could be thousands of kilometres away. It will also act as a platform for Australian businesses, small or large, to innovate and reach a much-wider customer base.

    Oh, but any broadband scheme could do these things, you cry…

    Turnbull’s cheaper suggestion does away with virtually all of that. In pecuniary terms alone, the massive, annual multibillion dollar cost savings to health and power won’t be there.

    But wait, there’s still more benefits from the NBN…

    Then there’s the existing copper network. Much of it is old and rotting. The oldest parts may date back to World War II, and if you’re in a suburb that was first developed in the 1960s, the chances are that the copper is the same age. It costs Telstra over one billion dollars every year just to maintain it and that cost is going up.

    Therefore, one of the prime requirements of the NBN is to simply replace the copper with fibre. Fibre costs less than 10 per cent of copper to maintain and operate, offers future-proof signal transmission and is much more robust. It has maxed out accelerated aging tests and should work optimally into the next century. It can also carry a signal hundreds of kilometres as opposed to copper which can carry a broadband signal barely five kilometres from an exchange

    So, having already paid for itself twice over…

    Even if we ignore all of the service and innovation benefits of the NBN, then its arguable that fibre-replacing-old-copper is the only justification that’s needed to build it.

    Turnbull’s vision is far less certain. Sure it will be cheaper in the first place and it will get more people up and running who don’t have any broadband internet access. But the business model seems to fundamentally rely upon obtaining revenue from customers signing up for basic broadband internet access. The Coalition itself has spent the last few years (rightly) questioning the demand for that.

    The techie term for what the Coalition is pushing is Fibre To The Node rather than Fibre To The Premises. The upshot here is that the Coalition does not connect every house (or business) to the NBN unless that house wants to pay for it. As such the business opportunities, infrastructure revolution, social benefits are unlikely to develop because only a fraction of the population would pay to connect if given the opportunity.

    And so..

    …Coalition’s plans are cheaper and faster to implement but that’s an over simplification. The alternative will still cost well over $10bn, but the main beneficiaries will be limited to those currently without broadband and geeks who want faster internet access. It would likely generate minimal additional revenue and there’s little obvious attraction for investors to buy into it should the government sell it off down the line. Virtually all of the medical, power distribution, innovation and social benefits would be done away with and this would deny the Australian economy countless billions of dollars

  13. The ABC News first five minutes was a disgrace!

    I did warn you, BK and BB found it trying as well.

    BB – I would love to do what you suggested on the previous page. Things are so down with the media now that there’s no use holding back. Abbott has discredited this Govt. more than needs be so Labor should go for the Murdoch jugular – not necessarily JG herself but some of the other Ministers could make a start.

    Don’t expect Mar’n to do it tho – he’s tightly wrapped around their fingers but Emmo and Albo and even Crean needs to be asked to stand up and voice the happenings in the UK.

  16. And Gillard has tossed a sitting pm under the bus to save Labor.

    The libs were anxious to do the same thing to howard in 2007 only he showed his teeth and the gutless libs ran away like rats.

    Didn’t have the balls. Willing to injure but afraid to strike.

    Gutless.

  17. I’d be interested for someone with more of an understanding of Australian political history than me to indicate where, if ever, we have had 18 months of political “debate” so devoid of actual nitty gritty policy discussion.

    We have had 18+ months of the government delivering policy and the opposition using various political tactics to oppose it. Not on policy grounds, but using various stunts, talking points, slogans and other politicking.

    I can’t recall any time in our recent history when an opposition has not argued policy differences, but has relied wholely and solely on the media to repeat talking points.

    At this rate, they will STILL go the next election without providing any serious, viable and correctly costed alternative policies and will expect, by osmosis, to replace Labor as Australia’s government.

    If the Liberal shills on here think that’s okay then maybe a dose of Abbott government is exactly what they deserve …

  18. (oizno – thanks. I appreciate those comments. As circumstances change members need to adapt and remain supportive.)

    Are u expecting more changes

  20. Crank @ 2769. It’s a total furphy that Fair Work Act erects a ‘guilty till innocent’ rule.
    Ashby has to prove prejudiced position, caused by humiliating harassment.
    Onus is only reversed on whether the ‘reason’ for alleged actions was discrimination for being gay. Which is an odd concept.

    ahm @ 2771. Why does the Constitution deny a deliberative vote to Speaker if it assumes a partisan Speaker’a vote?
    (That’s not rhetorical, and I dont have a founding father fetish).

  21. i will say this and will be probably be canned but
    labor are fucked and no spin ,media bias, bisons, Abbott wanker ,loose cannon,etc will save them.
    I am sorry most here have not agreed what I have said and have taken it that it my personal view, when I am just repeating what i have heard from many various places.
    I also do have a life and regard twitter / tweets as the domain of people that think it is great to have their lives to be condensed to 40 words or less/ whatever it is.
    I am out talking to people most days from 4 mill. populations to 20 in the local town and again Labor are rooted rightly or wrongly

  24. Ms Mirabella is facing current civil action. As is Mr Slipper. Are there any others?

    Yes, in the life of this current parliament, we have 3 Liberal pollies facing civil action; Ms Mirabella and Mr Abbott (don’t forget that he is being currently sued for defamation) and Senator Sean Edwards.

    We also have 1 Liberal member who has been found GUILTY of a criminal offence, but who has spared a jail sentence and who still sits in the Senate.

    In addition, we have the ex-LNP member that they propped up – and preselected – 9 times. Including as recently as 2010 and with a personal endorsement from Abbott late last year.

    There is 1 Labor pollie who hasn’t been charged with anything, civil or criminal.

    So that score card is 5 Liberals/ex-Liberals with civil/criminal actions vs 0 Labor.

    Guess who’s getting all the media heat?

  25. Got a lot of catching up to do.

    Ian at 2525:

    Ian
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink
    Public opinion polls are rather like children in a garden, digging things up all the time to see how they’re growing.
    J. B. Priestley

    and we all put too much emphasis on them.

    and while we are about it;

    I believe there is something inately reassuring that a Prime Minister can, by herself, no minders, lucidly answer questions, scorn the viscious, respect the rare outbreak of the intelligent and call into question the groupthink and fiction writing abilities of the corrupted, dissolute scum we call the Australian journalist. Good on her!!

    A man after mymown heart.

    Well said. She has shown amazing sterngth and determination in the face of complete contempt from the scum. It’s the mark of character, real character.

    Fifty years fromnow, it’s the Gillards of the world who will be remembered, not lice like Murdoch, Price and fellow travellers.

  26. Without getting into the whole Rudd/Gillard thing (my view is I support whoever beats Abbott), Rudd would’ve been in a far better position had he held of challenging in February.

    Big error of judgement on his part.

    As for Gillard, I suspect the ALP will entrench the policies before considering or making a move (around October when it will be too late for Abbott to keep his promises due to the senate configuration etc). That being said, I’m not sure any of the current lot besides Rudd could turn the polls around. They just don’t cut through the way he does

  28. Joe6pack
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    I am out talking to people most days from 4 mill. populations to 20 in the local town and again Labor are rooted rightly or wrongly

    Talking to 4 Million people a day must make you very tired.

    In truth you probably speak to far less than 100 people a day ?

  31. Joe6pk,

    As twitter/PB etc represents a microcosm, so do the people you and I interact with. None indicate the entire picture and represent a snapshot in time. No one truly knows exactly what the future has in store or the outcome.

  34. Joe6pack
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
    i will say this and will be probably be canned but
    labor are fucked and no spin ,media bias, bisons, Abbott wanker ,loose cannon,etc will save them.
    I am sorry most here have not agreed what I have said and have taken it that it my personal view, when I am just repeating what i have heard from many various places.
    I also do have a life and regard twitter / tweets as the domain of people that think it is great to have their lives to be condensed to 40 words or less/ whatever it is.
    I am out talking to people most days from 4 mill. populations to 20 in the local town and again Labor are rooted rightly or wrongly

    Looks like my jammy’s are safe 😆

    btw, good to see you’re home safe and well.

  37. From Lib HQ

    Nothing’s Changed
    Julia Gillard’s announcements today on Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper has changed nothing.
    It has been very clear to most Australians for some time what Julia Gillard needed to do in relation to both Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper.
    Today Julia Gillard again simply reacted to events further confirming her lack of judgement.
    Julia Gillard and Labor will continue to rely on the tainted vote of Craig Thompson to keep themselves in power at all costs.
    It is an act of a desperate and tricky government to have Craig Thompson suspended from the ALP Caucus but still accept his vote in parliament.
    The Prime Minister, if she is to restore a shred of credibility for herself, the ALP and this dysfunctional parliament, must refuse to accept Craig Thompson’s tainted vote.
    Craig Thomson should do the right thing and let the people of Australia have their say.
    The Peter Slipper saga has descended into even deeper farce, with the Parliament of Australia effectively having no Speaker and no certainty as to when we will have one again.
    Australia is a great country with a great future which is being let down by a very bad government. A government that is being led by a Prime Minister with no vision for Australia – only a vision for her own survival.
    Julia Gillard won’t support Australians who are battling cost of living pressures and dealing with greater job insecurity from her carbon tax, but she will continue to support Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper.
    The only way to clean up the mess of this tainted government and tainted parliament is to let Australians have their say through a fresh election.
    Click here to read Tony Abbott’s press conference transcript.

  38. The NBN just got a boost in the ABC program The Great Divide. They were visiting the Snowy Mountains Scheme, and the vision to build it was compared to the NBN.

  39. Joe6pack,
    Do you think there is any way that people could become aware that there are powerful forces out to do in this government for their own ends and to the detriment of the interests of the people?

  40. @SK/3237

    Sounds like the Libs are calling what Murdoch was saying other night “We want an Election NOW”.

    Poor Libs.

  41. Thank Ghost who Votes.

    Doesn’t anyone think it odd that a poll that started on Friday would have a question that relates to todays events?

  42. Will ask again!
    Do any PBer’s know if Rabbott still facing defamation charges?

    6/March/2012

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is to be sued for defamation for an ”outrageous smear” against a senior Victorian building union official.

    Mr Abbott last month accused John Setka – assistant Victorian secretary of the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union – of turning up at the homes of builders uninvited. The CFMEU said Mr Abbott had implied that Mr Setka was trying to ”stand over” people

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-to-be-sued-over-home-visits-comments-20120305-1uecg.html#ixzz1tQINVvoe

  43. I am surprised that Galaxy is that good.

    BTW when was the last Galaxy ie what is the time frame in comparing = and – figures ?

    Thanks in Advance.

  45. ave
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:09 pm | Permalink
    Joe6pack
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    I am out talking to people most days from 4 mill. populations to 20 in the local town and again Labor are rooted rightly or wrongly

    Talking to 4 Million people a day must make you very tired.

    In truth you probably speak to far less than 100 people a day ?

    That is true . sorry I worded it wrong . I meant to say people from populations that have between 4mil- to 20.

  46. Dee 3242

    I don’t know, mate.
    But hoping like mad it’s going to happen.

    I want to see the prick bankrupt
    And kicked out of parly on his sorry arse.

  47. OzPol Tragic
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink
    http://bit.ly/IAW50F SMH: Abbott to be sued over ‘home visits’ comments. Should he stand down until this matter is resolved #auspol

    So the writs have started flying. It was only a matter of time until Abbott’s far-from-truthful motormouth got him into a whole heap of trouble.

    Beautiful.

    Looks like a classic case of biter bit.

    I always thought this particular Slipper Tar Baby would stick to anyone stupid enough to touch it. And Abbott grabbed-on with bothhands. The plonker.

    So wnahya gonna stand-down Tony? Before or after the Statement of Claim is filed?

  48. So Ms Mirabella, Mr Abbott, and Mr Edwards should suspend themselves from the Liberal Party and stop casting their tainted votes upon the troubled waters of the House. I do hope that Mr Abbott does not accept his own tainted vote.

    BTW, I guided my House Guests through the House on the Hill today. All very, very quiet on a beautiful Autumn Day, the Senate in particular being pink and bare as a new-born baby.

    No hate within earshot. No rage within sight. The only creature that was stirring was a cute baby feral rabbit (??? it may have been a rat) in one of the courtyards, a gardener chasing away some desultory pigeons, and some very bored security staff.

    The French folk liked the idea of the symbolism of the citizens being able to walk over the top of the representatives, on the ascending lawns, the building being designed deliberately for that.

    Oh, and they just loved the works in the Indigenous galleries of the National Gallery.

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