Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,317 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Centre

    The swans are always competitive. West Coast had a few bad years recently, but are in top form again. Both great sides

  2. Danny Lewis @ 3143
    [Abbott could murder someone and the media coverage would be all about how the victim deserved it …]
    No, murder they’d be annoyed about, but they would forgive him the odd drive-by shooting. He’s teflon coated because the press is having so much fun with Gillard – she’s a blooper searchers delight. If and when she goes, Abbott will get more scrutiny which is another good reason for her to go

  3. Maybe the Swans can beat Collingwood for the first time in yonks this year.

    The AFL coverage seems to dedicate a lot of the camera shots to that Collingwood supporter with the goldilocks hairdo and his “passionate” mates.

  4. [Jane Caro ‏ @JaneCaro
    ABC news. ABC reporters interviewing ABC reporters is not news. Nor is it cutting edge, groovy or interesting. Please stop it.]

    I see someone else agrees with me. Thank dog for that.

  5. Shellbell I backed the Roosters again, Manly and Sharks put me narrowly ahead.

    Still had nightmares last night after Dragons came from behind like that 😐

  6. Bloody government advertising. Not only is the NBN costing billions the government is now wasteing millions telling us how good it is. Noooooo…… Two NBN adds out of three adds in a row.

  7. BB
    [There’s enough evidence now for Gillard to make the play. Widespread corruption, bribery and collusion, not to mention inhuman cruelty to the loved ones of murder victims does not stop at borders. It’s a cancer that spreads as far as it can. And it has spread – some might say it originated – here to Australia.]
    JG’s making her play; she’s continuing to make her play.
    And, boy, isn’t she paying for it!

    She blocked the move for Murdoch to take over AusNetwork
    She’s taken Telstra apart
    She’s established the rollout of the NBN
    She set up Finkelstein.

    And for all those bitching about the Greens – BB played his part too.
    Labelling Murdoch shite as the “hate media” has sewn a meme.

    As victoria often says, JG’s two steps ahead of the game
    Even though the press pack hacks are yet to identify it

    And, if it’s the last thing JG does, I do so hope she legislates absolutely to forever nobble the likes of Rupert Murdoch to have so much power.

  8. [If you are still about re Mirabella. In my post earlier today, I mentioned that Probate had been granted in the estate of the gentleman and she was appointed executor of the estate.]

    Victoria, a very similar case, also involving a Liberal (LNP) councillor Hajnal Black fined $5000 after being found guilty of four charges relating to pecuniary interests and Hajnal Black claims marriage ruined by courtroom dramas

    [Ms Black, 34, told the Supreme Court in Brisbane her marriage to fellow Logan councillor Sean Black was in tatters as a result of a myriad of cases stemming from a dispute over whether she mishandled the money of a dementia patient.

    The colourful councillor returned to the courts for a one-day civil hearing to decide whether the patient – a long-time mentor, “father figure” and retired barrister – had gifted her a house he owned at Greenbank, on Brisbane’s southern outskirts …

    Ms Black, is defending action taken by the Public Trustee of Queensland – which is chasing millions of dollars formerly controlled by a retired barrister.]

    Amazing how wonderful the legal term precedent can sound! There’s been a tendency of courts recently to use another jurisdiction’s precedent, even if the law has not yet caught up in other court’s jurisdiction.

  9. Puffy

    That’s because those naughty underlings didn’t tell Jimmy despite having a meeting to tell him and them saying they did tell him.

    Why are people so cruel to the Murdochs?

    They just can’t trust anyone can they.

  10. [Baillieu says challenges stem from federal turmoil

    Ted Baillieu says Canberra is partly to blame for the economic challenges affecting Victoria.
    Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu has linked his state’s economic woes to the ongoing political turmoil in Canberra.

    Mr Baillieu made the remarks during his keynote speech to the Liberal Party’s Victorian Council Meeting.

    He says the state is facing enormous economic challenges, and Canberra is partly to blame.

    “The mining tax, superannuation changes, industrial relations paralysis, occupational health and safety, gaming law reform – so much uncertainty – and there’s fiscal uncertainty as well,” he said.

    “There is uncertainty that is impacting on all jurisdictions, and it’s coming from Canberra.”]
    Well Ted, tell Abbott to shutup and stop bagging everything.

  11. [I’m sure it was a very tough interview!]

    BK Of course – Simpkin was reeling back in horror! and then they had some other twit standing in front of a piccie of the floor of the House pontificating on the numbers. I had to switch off at that point.

  12. A tough budget, cuts all round, sacrifices being made to prove Labor has some economic management skills. So what does labor do while cutting billions out of government services? Starts spending millions on advertising to tell us how good they are…. Nice work Labor

  13. Something I’ve never understood about PB is that many of the people here think that what is said on this blog counts for anything.

    Thus, people say things like ‘we should get behind the PM‘ when patently the relatively small number here can have no bearing on the outcome of the next election, whenever it may be.

    Especially when you consider that we come from a wide range of electorates.

    Solidarity here means nothing so far as election results are concerned.

    Thus, we can bag Rudd, we can bag Gillard, we can bag Abbott, and it will not matter a tinker’s dam (sic).

    What is important here is that we help each other to understand what is happening in the world of politics, whatever side of politics we favour.

    The only possible effect I can see of the debate here is that those who post here understand the political process better, and that the MSM writers who lurk get a feel for what well informed people are thinking about the political process.

    And that many of us here have an extremely low opinion of the MSM, and they should lift their game.

  14. victoria

    been in and out, making soup.
    But thanks for your vote of confidence.

    Someone had to keep the home fires burning once you’d abandoned ship to watch bloody AFL (apart from Catters, that is) 😆

  15. Danny Lewis @ 3115

    Thommo has appeared very confident every time I’ve seen him speak.

    He definitely knows something the rest of us don’t.

    I hope you are right, I would like to see him take the SMH to the cleaners.

    The bastards in the MSM seem to always use a particular photo of him that makes him look shifty. Really smacks of defamation of a sort.

  16. [Amazing how wonderful the legal term precedent can sound! There’s been a tendency of courts recently to use another jurisdiction’s precedent, even if the law has not yet caught up in other court’s jurisdiction.]

    The HC requires such use of precedent: C.A.L. No 14 Pty Ltd v Motor Accidents Insurance Board; C.A.L. No 14 Pty Ltd v Scott [2009] HCA 47 (10 November 2009)

  17. [BK Of course – Simpkin was reeling back in horror! and then they had some other twit standing in front of a piccie of the floor of the House pontificating on the numbers. I had to switch off at that point.]

    Must admit, I found it a bit trying, myself.

  18. [3174
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink
    rummel

    Do you think Abbott can deliver his very first budget reply speech this year, does he know how? ]

    No, he will attack the PM and her judgement alone with the rubbery surplus counting practices.

  19. [rummel
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 7:28 pm | Permalink
    A tough budget, cuts all round, sacrifices being made to prove Labor has some economic management skills. So what does labor do while cutting billions out of government services? Starts spending millions on advertising to tell us how good they are…. Nice work Labor]
    rummel,
    belated congrats for your good news!

    Now, put yourself in Thomson’s shoes.
    Wife, newly pregnant, and out come allegations that you’ve been visiting a prostitute.
    How do you think she’d react, considering you said your own wife has been pretty cranky all week?
    And considering, after all is said and done, that it happened before your were even married!

    And, then you get over it. A couple of years pass, wife is pregnant again.
    Up it comes again. Prostitute.

    Then when your wife is about to give birth, it’s not even your boss who says no you can’t attend, but the boss of a rival organisation.

    Yeah. Perspective.
    It’s a damnable thang.

    As for your paltry attempt at Labor cutting services.
    Abbott, your hero, the leader of your party, is promising not just cuts to services but the livelihood of 12,000 public servants and their families.

    Would you like to be one of those 12,000?
    Would you like your pregnant wife to be under pressure?

    That’s the fk you’re intent on supporting.
    Think on it.

  20. As usual One plus One is doing the real news. Discussing Disability Services for the Mentally Ill.
    A programme of merit this ABC one.

  21. No, he will attack the PM and her judgement alone with the rubbery surplus counting practices.

    More right wing projection.

    The libs whinging about rubbery figures FFS.

  22. (rummel Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Bloody government advertising. Not only is the NBN costing billions the government is now wasteing millions telling us how good it is. Noooooo…… Two NBN adds out of three adds in a row.)

    Could some one p,ease remind mr rummell the amount of mo ey spent by his hero

    Howard. On advertising, of course he knows that bt thats ok that was different

  23. [Something I’ve never understood about PB is that many of the people here think that what is said on this blog counts for anything.]

    Don,

    Something I’ve never understood about PB is that some people here think that what is said on this blog counts for nothing, and yet, here you are!!

  24. Centre,

    “Still had nightmares last night after Dragons came from behind like that”

    Still making money backing against the Bunnies? Almost saw the mother of all come from behinds today from Parra, of all people. This season in the NRL, there has been more coming from behind than what News Ltd would have us believes happens at Casa Slipper…

  25. rummel

    More hypocrisy from you! Now what was laudable when Howard did it is, in your opinion, reprehensible if Gillard does the same, but far less frequently than Howard and at a mere fraction of the cost!

    [Bloody government advertising. Not only is the NBN costing billions the government is now wasteing millions telling us how good it is.]

    Howard’s propaganda bill was horrendous. Just to recall of few!

    Who can forget the totally wasted Be alert but not afraid packet of propaganda + fridge magnet – and the warehouse that had to be hired to hold the “return to sender” packs.

    There wasn’t there a hugeky expensive Unchain my heart one – for the GST??

    What about that one with a warehouse full of mouse pads etc etc Julia Gillard had such fun with in the first year of the Rudd government?

    You really do make Liberals seem ridiculous!

  26. I can see Abbott as the guy in yellow.

    &w=144&h=105&ei=zQydT5HhC8e1iQfsm5zUDg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=608&vpy=199&dur=62&hovh=84&hovw=115&tx=62&ty=73&sig=113128399486455314242&page=1&tbnh=84&tbnw=115&start=0&ndsp=16&ved=1t:429,r:3,s:0,i:71

  27. drake@3185:

    Something I’ve never understood about PB is that some people here think that what is said on this blog counts for nothing, and yet, here you are!!

    Nope, too hard for me. Don’t know what you are trying to say.

  28. The Bikie associate in Brisbane who got shot yesterday is being uncooperative in identifying the perpetrator.
    Send the bastard to gaol for obstructing justice!

  29. victoria @ 3127

    bemused

    Happy to hear all went well witn granddaugher’s birthday. She sounds like a delight

    Thanks victoria.
    My two granddaughters are the love of my life… well, apart from SWMBO. 😉 The two year old is a real live wire and a fearless climber.

    Big sister is 13 and has attended Getup rallies with me.

  30. Kezza, libs just whinge after they have voted for them

    Dont forward think, or beleive u

    I will go further, may be rummell less on pbs, imagine if the pill suddenly dissapeared and famillies had to pay full price, who knows, just an exsmp,e,
    What if t
    They sell medi care, give u up front fees for uni,re your children, wha/t if your parents loose
    Pension and u have to help them out

    In the uk they gave tax breaks to the wealthy and taxed the less wealthy and cut pensions
    Joe hockey has been visiting

  31. [The Bikie associate in Brisbane who got shot yesterday is being uncooperative in identifying the perpetrator.
    Send the bastard to gaol for obstructing justice!]
    BK,

    Thou art indeed The Erudite Executioner…

  32. [Could some one p,ease remind mr rummell the amount of mo ey spent by his hero

    Howard. On advertising, of course he knows that bt thats ok that was different]

    Mysay

    And labor went on and on about how bad that’s was. So Labor made a election promises to end the advertising waste. So now we can add this to the pile of broken Labor promises.

  33. “I have ABC on now. More’s the pity.”

    I haven’t watched ABC news for about a year. If I want to be lied to, there are several commercial channels I can watch and if I want Liberal propaganda, the MSM is a feast. Therefore I don’t get cranky about it. And I’ll live a lot longer. The only thing I got cranky about was writing to that useless lump who parades as my local member, Curly Garrett, who simply could not be arsed doing anything other than the standard boilerplate reply.

  34. That “interview” on ABC news did something I did not think was possible. It made the earlier Latika Bourke interview with Pyne look credible.

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