Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,317 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  1. BTW, a motion of no confidence in the speaker (as threatened by Wilkie et al) is not the same as a motion of no confidence in the government.

  3. Kate McClymont sailing a bit close to breaching the confidentiality of the SMH settlement with Thomson with this today in the SMH:

    Thomson later dropped the defamation action against Fairfax when further records were produced showing his mobile phone had been used to make the bookings and that his signature and driver’s licence details were on the brothel receipts.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/why-is-thomson-stalling-in-rush-to-clear-his-name-20120429-1xsna.html#ixzz1tPujHFE

    This demonstrates that Thomson is the SMH’s plaything which has been the real problem for the government. I doubt anyone cares what Brandis et al think about him but the SMH is another matter.

  4. Abbott told Red Kerry, you can believe me if i put it down in writing. Not anymore, his written reference to Slipper is a fake #auspol

  5. womble

    Loved these comments:

    One still-serving Labor MP even sawed a hole in his ceiling to get to incriminating documents that had been stored there for years and boarded up during a renovation. Mere masonry was not going to thwart the party scorned.

    Labor was unrepentant.
    ”Anyone who rats on the Labor Party will get exactly what this quisling Quasimodo from Queensland got,” Ray said later.
    Speaking in the Senate after the Telstra vote, Senator John Faulkner let fly. ”I want to speak about someone who is venal. I want to speak about someone who is unscrupulous. I want to speak about someone who is mercenary. I want to speak about someone who is contemptible and despicable. I want to speak about someone who is the most useless and abominable representative the federal Parliament has ever seen. That person is a person who last night skulked into this chamber, slimed into the chamber quite slowly to collect his [travel allowance

    cheque.”]

  6. My hopes were dashed during the inept 2010 election campaign and from that point I have had increasing doubts.

    Do you think the Cabinet leaks – during the height of the campaign and that were clearly done to damage and discredit her – had any impact?

  7. Doyley
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

    F**k Twiggy.

    It seems others have the same sentiment –

    prominent US hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos, singled out Fortescue as being ripe for short selling because its share price was poised to fall materially.

    Speaking in New York, Mr Chanos said his fund preferred BHP Billiton for exposure to the resources sector because Fortescue was the global example of a ”value trap”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/forrest-wont-shy-from-fight-with-critics-20120427-1xq6i.html#ixzz1tPx4LDvC

  8. shellbell,

    A fact that has been glossed over is that Thomson has produced travel documents and witnesses to confirm he was in another state at the time.

  9. Also. Can I just say after an hour reading through all the Rudd v Gillard vitriol (again) that I find it really hard to understand. As a shiny brand new member of Labor I take the view that it will not be Rudd or Gillard that will either win or lose the next election. It will be US. The members and suppoters of the ALP. And we can win it by not fighting endlessly about whether Rudd is better than Gillard. We will only do it by converting one Tory swinger one at a time.
    I really want to see the passion from some of the Rudd supporters here used to that end. I agree it was shocking at the time but is it that hard to move on?

  10. This demonstrates that Thomson is the SMH’s plaything which has been the real problem for the government.

    Shellbell,

    Thomson is Farfax’s plaything as you say and Slipper is Murdoch’s. This highlights the problem of a lack of diversity in media ownership in Australia.

  12. shellbell,

    A fact that has been glossed over is that Thomson has produced travel documents and witnesses to confirm he was in another state at the time.

    Yes, it will be interesting to see how the FWA address that issue

  14. THE BISONs NEVER LIE!!!

    Never indeed, like this:

    CPI increases 0.1% in the March quarter 2012; 1.6% for the year. well below expectation, Underlying CPI at a 12 year low. 2.15%. RBA is expected to cut interest by at least 0.5% next week.

    And by the first half of 2003, it is expected to be 3%, equally the record low post GFC April 2009. With a possibility it might hit below 3%, a record low.

    Interest Rate Will Always Be Record Low Under Labor

  15. Thommo has appeared very confident every time I’ve seen him speak.

    He definitely knows something the rest of us don’t.

  16. A silent opposition on this would’ve been far more unnerving than a loud one

    They look risky and desperate.

    I said this earlier today, but rather than looking like an opposition heading for govt, they look like an opposition content to be there.

  17. Guytaur

    Congratulations re Sydney Swans win. Hawks still sore from last week’s game against WC Eagles! OH and son a little sad. They are very one eyed supporters.

  19. Anyone else here had a thought that the govt might be clearing decks in preparation for the run up to the election?

    Oh please don’t say that. Remember when Rudd did a “clearing of the decks”?

    He tossed about four programs under the bus in one week and never recovered.

  20. DL

    I agree with you re Thomson.

    The govt did not want to give Abbott et al the opportunity to hijack the budget session which is precisely what they would have done.

  21. I’ve never supported the Labor Party because of its leader.
    I’ve supported it because of its values.

    It’s great to have a charismatic leader,
    but it’s better to have a leader capable of implementing Labor policy.

    When Faulkner spat the dummy over Rudd, much as I admired him as a person, I will not support the eroding of Labor values. And Labor values encompass, as much as anything else, its Union roots, and its support for the conditions of workers, past, present and future.

    For the current lumpen bullshitartists who want to extricate themselves from the union movement, I say – go fk yourselves – join the Coalition.

    Because the Labor Party has always been for about fairness for workers, fairness for those workers thrown on the scrapheap, and fairness for the youth of today – wherever that today may eventuate.

  22. Labor could put $1B on the Budget being in surplus at $3.20 and turn it into a surplus.

    The bookies would be too gutless to take the bet 😐

  23. confessions

    The opposition look like a party desperate to grab power by any means apart from genuine policy grounds.

  30. Ducky

    All the buses are busy in the UK running over Rupe’s throwaways.

    It’s just a question of whether he will have to throw Rebekah or even little Jimmy as well.

  31. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/28/henry-porter-murdoch-leveson-inquiry

    Hope Henry Porter is right about murdoch being finished.

    I would like to see Gillard referring to him and his methods as “finished”. A simple declaration would do, with a follow-up once it sinks in.

    I find it inconceiveable that the Australian people would support him, or his newspapers, if the point was pressed here at home, rather than just in the UK.

    There is a bubble that needs to be burst around Murdoch and News in Australia. Many don’t get the connection between the old malignant master in New York and London and Sydney’s Holt St.

    The same person who was transparently lying about his company’s influence, the same person who, even though a non-citizen, arrogates to himself the right to make and unmake Prime Ministers all over the world, but who first pulls apart governance and institution in order to replace them with his own, tortured, victimized self, in some kind of homage to his dead father of sixty years hence, is the person who owns the newspapers that cockroach Steve Lewis and all the rest of the henchmen work for.

    He makes no secret of his desire for regime change here. Perhaps he believes he can get away with anything, being the last big fish in the last big pond.

    Australia is Murdoch’s last, desperate redoubt. Like some totalitarian imperialist he is in the process of being thrown out of the colonies he has attempted to set up through sleaze, corruption, intimidation and outright bastardry, and is falling back on Australia as the last, best, original Land Of The Mug.

    The people here are told, often by Murdoch’s own newspapers and television interests, that they are larrikin independents, respecting no man for his inherited station, but revering anyone who can show them he will lead from the front and be one of them.

    That’s why they are mugs. Murdoch has never cared for his readers, or their dreams and aspirations. Murdoch only cares for their money and their vote for whichever useful idiot he has set-up as the next best political thing.

    Even though he never stands in any election himself he skews his newspaper op-eds, editorials and editorial policies towards whatever News Ltd business venture he needs to promote. In this he is aided by as sorry a bunch of no-talent hacks as he can surround himself with for whatever tarnished dollar he is prepared to pay them.

    The connection needs to be made by Gillard. That old bastard you see casually chatting about the rise and fall of governments, and their nobbling to his ends, is the same creature that brought you Godwin Gretch, Utegate, the Hanson Photographs, Rudd-In and Rudd-Out, The Iraq War, and now trumped up charges by a suddenly reclusive homosexual that homosexual chit chat put him in fear of his sanity. Murdoch’s modus is like the Three Card Trick or a Nigerian scam: there’s always a mug who’ll swallow it whole and believe the unbelievable. Want cheap gold ingots? Rupert’s got one cheap.

    There’s enough evidence now for Gillard to make the play. Widespread corruption, bribery and collusion, not to mention inhuman cruelty to the loved ones of murder victims does not stop at borders. It’s a cancer that spreads as far as it can. And it has spread – some might say it originated – here to Australia.

    There is nothing to lose. It’s time for Gillard to stop pussy-footing around and bloody-well do something to draw the threads together and skewer the nasty, vicious, lying empire of Murdoch’s perverted sense of persecution and kill his banal, filthy influence off, once and for all.

  32. We watched sbs, ,
    Perhaps we should let the know, finns i suppose no one wants to talk to them
    So they have ro talk to themselves

  33. I’ve supported it because of its values

    Here here. It’s those values and the sense I needed to help defend them that made me become a member.

  34. c@tmomma

    If you are still about re Mirabella. In my post earlier today, I mentioned that Probate had been granted in the estate of the gentleman and she was appointed executor of the estate. I was not sure if a settlement had been reached with his children. Just to clarify, are the children of the deceased appealing Mirabella being appointed executor? Or something else? Thanks in advance

  35. If Slipper and Thomson are cleared of any wrong doing, then I suspect Mr Abbott’s judgement will be called into question on the issue of the presumption of innocence and parliamentary standards

    Sadly, spur, it will be glossed over, as every other one of Abbott’s mistakes have been. The MSM, esp NewsLtd and the ABC don’t even try to hold Abbott to account. One can ony assume that Rupert has given orders, and the media obey – on the off chance Abbott does get into power and their future careers are in his hands.

    You just have to read the newspaper reports, court transcripts; view streamed video of House of Commons proceedings, the Leveson Inquiry.

    In the past year, we’ve learnt what having one’s career in the Murdochs’ hands has done to editors & reporters; coppers on the beat and senior officers at The Met; members of Parliamentary committees & Prime Ministers. There’s even a very strong suspicion that compliance involved at least one murder. They do whatever it takes – including breaking laws and earning themselves public interrogation and probably heavy fines & jail sentences. To everyone who makes a pact with him, Murdoch is Mephistopheles .

    And just in case people have forgotten to what depths Murdoch and his media sink, check what happens to PMs who don’t toe the line. Go back and research what was done to Gordon Brown:

    ‘We were in tears’: Brown’s fury at the use of ‘criminal underworld’ by News International as it’s revealed The Sun had seen his sick son’s medical files

    * Rebekah Brooks to Sarah Brown: We know your baby has cystic fibrosis
    * Brown: Tactics used by News International are ruthless and disgusting
    * Former PM was ‘targeted multiple times by The Sun and The Sunday Times’
    * Bank details, tax documents and police records all accessed
    * Cameron: My heart goes out to Gordon and Sarah Brown

    Gordon Brown today laid bare his family’s anguish after Rebekah Brooks revealed she had seen his baby son’s medical records – and intended to publish a story about his illness.

    In an extraordinary interview, the former prime minister described how he and his wife Sarah had been in tears after speaking to the then editor of The Sun in 2006.

    Mrs Brooks had told Mrs Brown that she knew four-month-old Fraser had cystic fibrosis – something which was thought to be known only by the family and medical staff – and that the paper intended to run a story.

    The Browns were devastated. Speaking to the BBC today, Mr Brown said that he was ‘incredibly upset’ at the thought his son was going to be ‘broadcast across the media.’

    He also accused News International of using the ‘criminal underworld’ to obtain information and said that the company’s tactics had been totally ruthless and ‘disgusting’.

  37. Centre

    I actually like the Sydney Swans. They are always competitive. It is just that Hawthorn is my second favourite team.

  39. DL

    Thommo has appeared very confident every time I’ve seen him speak.

    He definitely knows something the rest of us don’t.

    He certainly knows heaps we don’t know but I doubt the FWA investigation cleared him. If it had, this wouldn’t have happened.

  41. Bb
    I woukd like to see the pm, call reporters by name and then say from , the ,””..
    Then viewers know where they come from

  46. Pyne was on Sky earlier saying that Howard refused to accept Colston’s vote – can anyone remember that far back??? I’m guessing that’s once it didn’t matter any more??

    Liar, liar, pants on fire! Howard initially said he woudl refuse the vote but later spoke on telly and said that things had changed and he was going to accept it – hey presto, sale of telstra. Colston enquiry voted down by Libs in Senate and once that was done, Colston was put aside. Can’t anyone in the media pick up Pyne on his lies.

    It will be US. The members and suppoters of the ALP. And we can win it by not fighting endlessly about whether Rudd is better than Gillard. We will only do it by converting one Tory swinger one at a time.
    I really want to see the passion from some of the Rudd supporters here used to that end. I agree it was shocking at the time but is it that hard to move on?

    Boizno – thanks. I appreciate those comments. As circumstances change members need to adapt and remain supportive.

  48. Boinzo @ 3109

    Also. Can I just say after an hour reading through all the Rudd v Gillard vitriol (again) that I find it really hard to understand. As a shiny brand new member of Labor I take the view that it will not be Rudd or Gillard that will either win or lose the next election. It will be US. The members and suppoters of the ALP. And we can win it by not fighting endlessly about whether Rudd is better than Gillard. We will only do it by converting one Tory swinger one at a time.
    I really want to see the passion from some of the Rudd supporters here used to that end. I agree it was shocking at the time but is it that hard to move on?

    Well Boinzo, great to hear you are a new member. All we need is about another 50,000 like you!

    Grassroots campaigning certainly plays its part and would be even more effective with a lot more more like you.

    I have over many years indulged in it whenever possible with a group of colleagues or friends and acquaintances. You have to be a bit careful at times at places like work or if you run a business but it is usually possible to slip in a few ‘innocent’ comments. 😀

    Election campaigns over the years have moved more and more away from the grass roots and these days are largely fought on TV and other media. I live in an area the Libs used to dominate so we didn’t have members offices and staff to assist so we did it all ourselves. Now we dominate the area, a lot of the knowledge and skills held by the rank and file have been lost and the campaign increasingly run from the members office.

    What general area are you in?

  49. Crikey! Did anyone else see ABC journos interviewing ABC journos on the news. Uhlmann and Simpkin – what was that about fer gawdsakes! SBS News was very balanced and informative.

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