Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest weekly face-to-face poll has the Labor primary vote falling a point on last week to 30 per cent, which I believe to be an all-time low in a series noted for being biased in their favour. The Coalition is up one to 47.5 per cent, with the Greens down half to 12 per cent. Labor has improved slightly on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition leads 58.5-41.5 (59.5-40.5), but gone backwards on the methodologically preferable previous election measure (from 55-45 to 56-44).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,317 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 58.5-41.5 to Coalition”

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  5. [Space Kidette
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
    Joe6pk,

    As twitter/PB etc represents a microcosm, so do the people you and I interact with. None indicate the entire picture and represent a snapshot in time. No one truly knows exactly what the future has in store or the outcome.]
    Maybe , and I do apologise for maybe going off a bit about social media . Etc. but I think some people may put too much importance on it atm.
    remember most of my views. comments come from blue,collar. I dont care about politics people, and i am passing them on.
    Until sog. then nsw/ stuart are losers

  6. r1000

    [This poll does Galaxy little credit.]

    Why?

    Do you have evidence that they have tampered with the design of the interview, the sampling methodology in some way that casts doubt on the reliability and validity of the results?

  7. Just watching the late version of Insiders.

    Wilke is very much not to be trusted think i. He’s going to try and grandstand over some aspect of the Budget i think.

  10. Joe6pack/3255

    Surely? Twitter does as much damage of not more than traditional media – so it’s important that be careful when they are on it.

    Remember the world is watching it – not just Australia.

  11. [latika Bourke Finding the worse the Govt performs the stupider the Twitter bile. RT @mulgabob: @latikambourke Have you got the hot’s for Tony ??????]

  12. oh yipee

    [Latika Bourke MT @mjrowland68: On @BreakfastNews… We’re joined by Opp. Leader Tony Abbott and Trade Minister Craig Emerson.]

  13. [Perhaps Labor could get Obama to do the voice-overs on the policy announcements?]

    Dio,

    Excellent idea!!

    Seriously though, Obama is the most gifted politician I have ever seen.

  14. i

    Mr Wilkie had a deal. Ms Gillard welched on the deal. Mr Wilkie announced, therefore, that there was no deal.

    Mr Wilkie now owes nobody, except perhaps the constituents of his electorate, anything. At all.

    He is a free agent. Since grandstanding is part and parcel of normal politics, it is unreasonable to expect Mr Wilkie not to do some grandstanding.

  16. It is amazing that Latika cannot see how pathetic the msm has behaved this week in particular. They really do suffer from groupthink. It is absolutely frightening how much they believe their own crap

  17. Bit disappointed in andrew elder’s column.

    Trying to make out that FWA (among a usual Lib union bash – light for a Lib, ex-Lib) is responsible for the HSU crap.

    It’s was Abbott’s IR legislation, amended and rebadged as FWA to remove the more draconian workchoices measures that prevented FWA from doing anything other than a report because the section that could have dealt with corporate (and therefore HSU) breaches was retained holus bolus. It had no punitive powers at all.

    Let’s not forget it was put there to protect Howard’s mates in the first place.

    To blame Shorten for not acknowledging this, and to make out that his support of JG when he hadn’t heard what she’d said has now sidelined him is nothing short of hysteria.

    (Just watched the offending tape, and FCS it’s okay, nothing like I’d imagined it. Thought he’d broken down and cried by all the crappola being reported).

    Couple elder’s post with a political commentator from some QU (on ABC24 earlier today) who says JG has to own the FWA legislation because she amended the Howard junk it just makes all the commentary a total piss-take.,

  19. [Harry “Snapper” Organs
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink
    Joe6pack,
    Do you think there is any way that people could become aware that there are powerful forces out to do in this government for their own ends and to the detriment of the interests of the people?]

    Nope sorry.
    i have said before and will say again the number 1 issue that will see the lying crappy scum be the next pm. will be the carbon tax .
    take that away and JG. has a shot.
    With it every price rise is just a free kick to the coalation

  22. Joe6pack
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    I think some people may put too much importance on (social media) atm.

    I had (actually still have) a twitter account but just don’t have the time to keep track of it.

    At the end of the day most of the stuff there doesn’t matter either.

  23. The Phoney war between Labor and Murdoch is over.

    Gillard should give up dropping leaflets and start dropping bombs.

    Collateral damage? A shame, but there you go: this is War.

  25. I saw a tweet that the Galaxy poll was 900 instead of 1200 and was taken from people doing a consumer survey or somesuch. Does that put a different take on the figures?

  26. “Embattled”, “beleagured” are NOT words to include in what is supposed to be a news report. What is a report? It should be a statement of facts, and should not include the insertion of judgemental descriptions.

    Thus the words “Embattled Thomson suspended from Labor Party” (abc.net.au) or “Beleageured Speaker Peter Slipper has agreed to make way…” (theaustralian.com.au) or “Julia Gillard asks embattled MPs Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper to step aside” (theage.com.au) are NOT reports.

    They demonstrate the use of bias/spin/manipulation by the commercial media and the ABC in order to influence the way Australian people (that’s you and me) think about issues.

  27. Don’t know why there’s such angst today. It’s been a good day overall.

    *The PM has resolved a couple of tricky situations which may now give the budget a cleaer run.
    *Abbott and Pyne have made fools of themselves, as usual.
    *Uhlmann has alienated more viewers (when will Mark Scott wake up?)

    PB has been quite entertaining, from a distance 😆

  28. ALP spanked in local elections… i said yesterday i thought state election was just an entree… hopefully two votes in quick succession has taken some of the sting out of queenslanders.

  29. Boinzo @ 3209

    @Bemused
    I am in Kevin Rudd’s electorate.

    I agree grass roots campaigning is not a panacea. And sometimes it is difficult. However surely the attitude of members and supporters internally is very important in the current circumstance.

    Lucky you! Do you know feeney form PB?

    It is no good being part of a herd that has got it wrong. Better to try to persuade and possibly change opinions.

    I did this at work years ago in relation to the Y2K scam when I saved my employer millions by challenging conventional wisdom and being proven right.

  30. Joe6pack, thanks for your response. Very depressing, I think. This boils down to people being seriously misinformed about what is going to happen to them and their children and grandchildren due to climate change.
    Not to mention the horrible effect of Murdoch and his regime changing.

  31. [Thus the words “Embattled Thomson suspended from Labor Party” (abc.net.au) or “Beleageured Speaker Peter Slipper has agreed to make way…” (theaustralian.com.au) or “Julia Gillard asks embattled MPs Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper to step aside” (theage.com.au) are NOT reports.]
    The hypocritical Tony Abbott and the pathetic Christopher Pyne today defended the odious Sophie Mirabella.
    How does that sound for balance?

  35. Joe6pk,

    I am happy for people to decide for themselves what govt they prefer. However, my fear is that vested interests are obtaining block votes via deception or should I say media misinformation and manipulation.

    To me that is the beginning of the end of democracy.

  38. latest galaxy Lnp 56 Alp 44 – considering the shits that have been thrown by #MSMHACKS & #TheirABC at the Govt, this is kinda BISON like 👿

  40. zoomster @ 3212

    That is a great article you linked to. I join you in recommending everyone read it and learn as much as you can ready to challenge the Fibs.

    There is an implicit assumption when Fibs challenge anything on cost that the alternative is painless and costs nothing. This is of course rubbish and in many cases the Fibs option is either more expensive or delivers a lot less.

  41. [Surely? Twitter does as much damage of not more than traditional media – so it’s important that be careful when they are on it.

    Remember the world is watching it – not just Australia.]
    Look . good on you twitter people if that is your thing, but atm. I dont think it makes 1 iota of diff.
    As far as the world watching Aus. Most won’t know where it is nor would they care

  48. spur212 @ 3226

    Without getting into the whole Rudd/Gillard thing (my view is I support whoever beats Abbott), Rudd would’ve been in a far better position had he held of challenging in February.

    Big error of judgement on his part.

    As for Gillard, I suspect the ALP will entrench the policies before considering or making a move (around October when it will be too late for Abbott to keep his promises due to the senate configuration etc). That being said, I’m not sure any of the current lot besides Rudd could turn the polls around. They just don’t cut through the way he does

    Pretty much how I feel.

  49. Boinzo@3209:

    While i take your point about relevance it seems to me what happens on this blog represents a small subsection of broader society and is at least as valid as a poll 17 months before an election.

    Come now.

    Any pollster who thought that this blog was a representative sample of broader society should be out on their ear immediately, and sent to look for a less mathematically demanding job asking ‘do you want fries with that’.

    It is hard to think of a less representative subsection of australian society.

    Thoughts expressed here are not valid representations of anything except for what, for the most part, articulate labor leaning people think about politics.

    I learn here a lot about the australian political scene that I could never learn anywhere else.

    Doesn’t mean that what is said here changes public opinion one jot.

  50. BK, I have lurked for a while, but have only been commenting for the last few days. However, I am, and have been, “active” elsewhere for eight or nine years 🙂

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