Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 119
1 … 5 6 7 … 119

  2. [Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke

    Wow! RT @abc730: In his first #abc730 interview of the year, Opposition Leader @TonyAbbottMHR joins us tonight re the #Slipper affair. ]

  3. Guytaur the evidence is now in the public domain and it’s only a matter of how you accept accept or reject that evidence.

  4. [Also interesting to note that the PM talks about the repeated preselection of Slipper – the truth there is that the Liberal Party has been trying to get rid of him for years, that’s part of the reason why he defected.]
    So the Libs couldn’t manage Slipper as a Lib for 20 years – OK.
    But Gillard can’t manage an independent (two ways) Speaker for 5 months – that’s piss weak?
    That’s hypocritical cant.

  5. this man is truly a disgrace.

    [latikambourke Wow! RT @abc730: In his first #abc730 interview of the year, Opposition Leader @TonyAbbottMHR joins us tonight re the #Slipper affair.
    3 minutes ago]

  10. The Press has had its fun with Slipper and nothing much can happen, with regards to his position, until Parliament resumes.

    So where is the next angle? Nutt? The lady who has obviously remembered being told to forget? The former staffer with the skinned knuckles? It has to go somewhere.

    That somewhere all points to the LNP.

  14. [latikambourke Wow! RT @abc730: In his first #abc730 interview of the year, Opposition Leader @TonyAbbottMHR joins us tonight re the #Slipper affair.
    3 minutes ago]
    What a creep! He wouldn’t go near the show – even with supporter Uhlmann and not live -unless he could sprout his bile without having to be accountable for anything else.

  15. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink
    mari

    And me when I come back from O/s Thought you may be interested I am going on a bumboat from Changi Wharf into Malaysia end of next month…

    I am interested. Best wishes for your trip. I suppose the mega reality is sitting on top of Mount Faber and counting 100 ocean going ships within sight. But bumboats are still sort of nice.]
    Am a bit apprehensive as haven’t been in Malaysia for a while, but will dress appropriately. The hotel I stay at in Changi overlooks the main passage going up to Singapore so see a lot of movement on the water. It is amazing all you need is your passport and S$10 each way.

  16. my say

    I reckon Roxon has got it right. abbott leader of the lynch mob. Of course, not when Slipper was a member of his team

  19. One amusing part of this is the efforts of Mal Brough to get back into Federal Parliament.

    Someone who knows better than me may correct me but this ‘Slipper’ game all began when Mal Brough lost the seat of Longman in 2007 to the ALP.

    The Liberals were keen to get him back ASAP. Peter Slipper and Alex Somlyay seemed to be ‘targets’ for early retirement and the pressure was applied. Both declined to vacate their seat so Mal could get in via a byelection.

    Meanwhile Mal was busy ‘sh$tting in the Liberal National nest’ in Queensland by first being in favour of the LNP merger and then being against it.

    In 2009 his old seat of Longman was the subject of a redistribution and Mal decided that, combined with the fact they’d voted him out before, the seat might be somewhat harder for a Liberal than it was before. So he indicated he wouldn’t be a candidate for the next election in Longman.

    So Mal continued his quest for a ‘safe’ Liberal seat elsewhere – some LNP officials may not have been too ‘helpful’. He continued to harrass Slipper with Somlyay’s help and continues to do that today …

    Meanwhile in Longman the Liberals selected a candidate for the 2010 election thinking they had not much chance – result 20 year old Liberal Wyatt Roy is the sitting member.

  21. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink
    Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke

    Wow! RT @abc730: In his first #abc730 interview of the year, Opposition Leader @TonyAbbottMHR joins us tonight re the #Slipper affair.]
    I assume to be interviews by the unbiased Chris U, I can’t watch it, would break my self imposed ban on 7.30 Report for about 9 months now

  23. Tony Abbott must be desperate to go on 7.30 report – it has graveyard shift ratings since Cuhlman took it down market.

    Even Fran Kelly this morning raised the obvious “what did the LNP know” questions this morning to Pyne. Now Pyne is smart enough to bat them away and stay on message (ie that the Slipper stuff only started in November last year when he became Speaker) – can Tone do the same?

    I betya its pre-recorded with the bloopers removed

  25. Marrickville Mauler

    In light of his antics at question time I prefer “Psycho Trephiner” . A trephine is used to cut holes in the skull. 🙂

  28. I note all the tweets about various Liberals being at Slipper’s wedding and that one gave the timeframe … 6 years ago.

    That would mean he got married 2 or 3 years after the first sexual harassment allegations were first made against him.

    I throw it out there just as an observation.

  30. CTar that’s about correct except it’s relevant that Mal lost interest in the LNP merger when they wouldnt do it his way and make him leader.

  32. More fun with anagrams and the pink faced Christopher Pyne ?

    Epoch Sherry Pint

    You should try Sophie Mirabella – A Liberal Shoe Imp
    Or Bronwyn Bishop – Bony Brown Hips
    Or a very appropriate one for Joe Hockey – Jokey Echo

  33. Yes i did to but thought i must be wrong is it that long ago.

    I only realised that kerry was a labor staffer, when i saw lionel bowens funeral sevice.

    Sprockett did you see my apology to u sorry
    bad da

    Still no word from melbourne getting beside myself

  35. It appears that Wilkie feels that he is now in the box seat with negotiations re pokies reforms. It will be interesting to see how that all pans out. If Macklin can reach agreement with him, Wilkie will obviously be back in the tent

  36. Graham Morris beside himself that Labor is still in power and saying it’s terminal. Shorten or someone else should take over. Simon Banks taunting him saying Morris is getting angrier and angrier but no matter what the the Govt. is still getting lots of legislation through and they still only need 3 votes to get bills through. The same 3 votes they needed in August 2010.

  37. [Will the msm pursue this angle?]

    They have created the scandal, they have to keep it going – they need new revelations and every news editor in the country will be looking for a new angle.

  38. I await with confidence for reactionaries to start yelling that all the fuss about Mr Slipper is political correctness gone mad.

    Or something like that.

  39. [@latikambourke @abc730 @TonyAbbottMHR of course, sleaze is on
    In reply to Latika Bourke]

    She blocked me for my opinion, The Finnigans.

  41. SK – Libtika’s excitement at Abbott being on 7.30 Report is a bit sad. She’s acting like a groupie.

    She should be saying ‘Abbott, who has been too scared to appear on 7.30 Report or face challenging interviewing, now wants us to let him rant and rave about Slipper and the PM – well, what if we don’t want to let you, Tony’.

  42. ru

    The msm pursued this to dump on Labor and get rid of Slipper. Slipper was making it hard for the coalition in parliament.

    I am not convinced they want The fibs to be damaged. The only ones that can really damage fibs is if Slipper has his own dirt file ready to go, and the accuser wanting to dump on his own party

  43. [with many are questioning the integrity of Parliamen following the slipper allegations]

    When it is Newslimited and the MSM that should be under the gun.

  45. Me either victoria, it just does me in to underdtand that type of person.

    Can u imagine him as pm

    I really cannot see him staying on as opp. Leader. Re an election,

    I dint think most people could see him as pm

    Could they?.
    Usualky parties like this leave the head honcho, looking above this type of thing

  47. Joe2

    Not long to go. Leveson is going to put journalists and their employers behaviour in the spotlight. In particular two Murdochs.

  48. mari,

    Abbott was there too. But, he was so unimportant he didn’t rate a mention.

    Oh, the good old days.

  49. BH

    libtika sent this to Talcum

    [latikambourke @TurnbullMalcolm fair comparison for Emmo to raise your HIH case as an example for how Pslipper should be treated?
    3 minutes ago]

Comments Page 6 of 119
1 … 5 6 7 … 119

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *