Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Danny Lewis @ 2600

    Are you suggesting that if we had “lost” the war, we would not be free to speak openly on a political website? Really?

    Last time I looked, Germany, Austria, Hungary and the others were pretty civilised countries. I don’t see any evidence of people there not being free to express themselves publicly.

    By all means mourn those who died – the tragic loss of life on BOTH sides – but don’t try to turn it into the “what we have now is because of them” jingoistic BS.

    Well that takes the prize for the dopiest post I have ever read on this blog or anywhere.

    Didn’t it occur to you that Germany, Austria and Hungary are the way they are today precisely because the Nazi regime in Germany was defeated?

    I loath all the jingoism and rubbish that goes on, but your post is fictionalisation of history on a grand scale. Even Boerwars ranting is more plausible.

  2. Ctar

    [What will be interesting tonight with Rupert is Leveson himself. He had a reputation as a very aggressive prosecutor and lost a big tax case due to that.

    So is it going to be Leveson LJ or the prosecutor tonight?]

    Leveson last night did intervene regularly, and his line of questioning – to some extent – went over JamesM’s head. Leveson was pushing to understand the culture and thinking behind the decisions.

    For example on the 350k quid payout to Taylor, JamesM kept answering what he knew when, what he saw told or not, interpretation of the email trail etc. Leveson intervened and asked wtte “why does your company think its ok to pay off people you have dudded, in order to protect your reputation” ?

    This was beyond JamesM who could and did fall back on the details, which Rupert won’t have – but Rupert can undoubtedly answer the question posed by Leveson.

  3. Thanks for raising that Kezza – great point, shows how bad trial by media it is – hopefully we get a good result in the UK tonight and it really shakes up who owns/runs what here.

    In the end though, will it change??? What paper wouldn’t run the allegations against Theo? is it in the public interest to run the stories in case there are others that could come forward as a result?? Is there any possibility that the compensation he receives will be sufficient to offset the damage to his reputation??? – highly unlikely

    Is there a better way???

  4. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink
    Am just enjoying a cup of Billy Tea along with a couple of ANZAC biscuits while doing some quiet reflection.]

    Love Anzac Biscuits but prefer the soft ones? Once when we were in California we stopped at a bakery and asked what some big lumps of ??? were was told we probably didn’t know what they were but they are Anzac biscuits, my OH said we are from Australia and do know about them and what the name means ‘Australian New Zealand Army Corps,’ think she thought we were mad, We didn’t buy them

  5. DTT
    [Nice story that “love” bit]

    Not sure how ironic you are in that, but Edward was certainly dominated by the lady (sic) and he called it love. The words to describe her would probably be out of place here. 🙂

  6. Tobe – correct, i think Abbott will actually cop more “splatter” in the long run

    Zoomster – you’re probably right – the point I was trying to make is that we shouldn’t just dismiss the allegation made by Ashby because of the political links/consequences – sexual harassment is a bad thing, if proven.

  8. http://tinyurl.com/77h9ml7 (click google link)

    Speaker was ‘meticulous’ with taxi dockets
    by: Hedley Thomas From: The Australian April 25, 2012 12:00AM

    [Audit documents, receipts and Freedom of Information searches show that Oakcorp Limousines on the Sunshine Coast has received much of the tens of thousands of dollars spent by Mr Slipper on travel.

    “The AFP looked at all this some time ago — they were not investigating us, but they were looking into the legitimacy of the expenses generally — and they went into travel he had done on certain dates,” Mr Conroy said

    “They found nothing untoward, as far as we are concerned. The latest thing seems unusual. He always fills out Cabcharge dockets when he travels with us, and he takes meticulous care. He was painful, actually, in filling them out. He did not hand any blank dockets to us.”]

    Seems, Slipper might be back in the Chair for the Budget Session. So The Oz has started backpedaling like crazy!

    Can’t imagine Slipper will give NewsLtd the benefit of the doubt, or his magnanimity, if there’s been any whiff of slander/ libel in its reporting – not after its reaction to his appointment as Speaker.

  9. Ignore for a minute Slipper and that vital vote on the floor of the House of Reps.
    Why is this system of charging allowed to go on?
    We live in a world charges can be made electronically through EFTPOS from your credit card or debit card directly from your bank account.
    All any government has to do to clear this up is to stop using Cabcharge.
    Instead just a travel allowance and leave it up to the individual as to what transport they use.

  10. If there is one thing about the Windsors, they know how to protect the family brand.

    In WW1 they got rid of the German element in their name – Battenberg was it? Also, there is considerable thought that the Czar and his family could have been saved from destruction by the Reds if they had been invited to England at the time – by the royal family.

    I gather there was no inclination of behalf of KG5 to do to. His relative was thereby shot along with his family.

    With EVII, one cannot discount the love affair, but many of the upper classes in the UK actually admired the Germans under Hitler.

    After the discontent of the Hunger Marches in the 1920s in the UK, there was genuine fear among the Establishment that the British working class might just turn further left.

    For this Establishment, the Right was a way to keep the working class in its place.

    It is no surprise that Eddy went to German and was feted – and sucked in.

    However, come WW2, the Windsor brand had, again, to be protected and he was shipped off the Bermuda.

    After the war, he was essentially a non person as far as the royals were concerned.

    Right up to the time of Princess Diana, the Windsors have the knack of keeping Windsor inc. in good shape.

    I declare my interest.

    I am not a royalist and would prefer Oz to be a republic though maintaining ties which come through history and kith and kin with Britain.

  15. 1. Analysis of home care costs under Labor’s aged care reform package:http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/elderly-to-be-billed-thousands-for-home-care-20120424-1xjmw.html
    [An analysis of the government’s plans by UnitingCare Ageing found people with annual incomes of $30,000 would face minimum total payments of $5029 – or well over double what they pay now. That could rise to $6392 if they were charged the full basic fee of $3163, although that is rarely charged at present.

    People earning $50,000 would pay more than 20 per cent of their incomes for home care, the UnitingCare figures show.

    People living entirely on the pension, who comprise 51 per cent of those on aged care benefits, will not have to pay more than the $1800 basic fee.

    The user-pays plan will impact more significantly on many part-pensioners, whose combined pension payments and independent incomes total between $30,000 and $40,000.

    A government spokeswoman last night confirmed the UnitingCare figures.]
    2. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/generation-why-us-tax-break-could-change-lives-20120424-1xjdv.html
    [But Australia’s tax system is hopelessly skewed against the young in favour of the old.

    Last Friday’s aged care announcement – the most sweeping reforms to aged care in 30 years – means more older Australians will be paying more out of their pocket for care. But one sacred cow remains – the family home.

    Using the family home as a tax shelter only increases intra-generational inequality.]

  16. [Hire cars don’t have meters or “charge devices”. They only have black “HC” plates. Perhaps Ashby is unaware of this.]

    Nor do limos, even when they are picking up “off the street” fares. Fares are negotiated in advance, usually through a booking, or before beginning a trip. In addition (in Q, prob elsewhere), they have special plates which identify them as limos.

  17. [Libs hate to admit it, but his admiration of what the German Chancellor was doing became one of the mistakes which led to his failure to secure a majority in the first election of WW II, and the Independents’ withdrawing their support, costing Menzies his PMship]

    OPT, I see that you have put your own twist on history here. A major part of the poor performance of the UAP and CP at the 1940 election (the CP was not in the govt because of Page’s personal antipathy to Menzies ) was that the NSW ALP had got its act somewhat together in 1939 and that there was a huge swing to the ALP in NSW – this was the election that brought Chifley and Evatt into parliament. At the same time there were swings against the ALP in the outer states – Curtin only hung on by 600 votes in Fremantle. The government was also weakened by the loss of 3 ministers in an air crash – one of whose seats were lost at the elction to one of the indepndents that put Fadden out in 1941. The personality of Menzies was also his undoing – very similar to Rudd if you swap the names.

    Also, by 1941 when Japanese intentions were becoming very clear, the Pig Iron Bob given him by Port Kembla wharfies earlier over scrap metal exports to Japan was having resonance.

  18. Bushfire Bill @1763
    Didn’t make it past the moderator. The $62.40 filing charge fact with link was probably the killer. You showing up the reporters with research. You bastard.
    (Thanks for the link/fact here though)

  19. If slipper plays this right, and continues with him being Abbott.s close and only friend

    And continues wiht Abbott supported him etc, there would be pressure on the investigation to switch to abbott also

    Then there was to be questions asked fot Tony

    will he have the integrity to step down ,while the investigation is going on

  20. rummel

    Didn’t read your link but read the original in the UK Press.
    Lovelock was saying that at the time of his writing not enough info had been gathered, and he went too early on global heating, rather than climate change.
    No doubt the doubters will lap this up, but since Lovelock’s publication, many more observations are in and the science is now based on stronger evidence.

    But I won’t argue with you, as it gets too wearying.

  22. [Humans have a funny weird way just to ignore things, and then may regret it 20 years later.]

    Read the article. The high priest of GW is saying they might be wrong and things are not as clear cut as computer models.

    When the chief alarmist starts to retract his past views it time to take notice. Now no labor member will ever do that because that would mean Gillard is wrong again and tied to a Tax to save the world through reducing the temp when it’s not needed.

  24. Bemused @ 2701

    Didn’t it occur to you that Germany, Austria and Hungary are the way they are today precisely because the Nazi regime in Germany was defeated?

    Hey, I just wanted you opinion on an another hypothesis.

    Lets say the Nazis won and maintained their brutal dictatorship all over Europe. Would it not have fallen from power eventually like all other dictatorships?

    It could be for many reasons:

    Economy goes down the tank.

    Nationalism in client states reassert themselves

    Eventual distrust of the Nazis after a long time in office.

    Two decades after WWII, a German “60’s” happens.

    In short even if the Nazis win WWII, like all regimes they are not forever.

    Your thoughts?

  25. Bruce Haigh on how Vet Affairs is failing our surviving veterans:
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3970090.html
    [There has been recent discussion in the media that troops wounded in Afghanistan have received the short end of the stick in follow-up treatment provided or organised by the Department of Veterans Affairs.

    Around 30 years ago Vet Affairs began morphing into a caretaker of the nations’ memory and remembrance of war.

    In my opinion, Vet Affairs should be made to concentrate solely on the welfare of surviving vets. They should be forced to abandon their proselytizing and promotion of the Anzac legend.

    As far as government expenditure on recording and honouring the history of Australian involvement in war goes, I believe that should be the sole preserve of the Australian War Memorial.]

  27. “The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.

  30. Some ripper quotes from the chief warmer.

    “The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.
    “The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.
    He pointed to Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Tim Flannery’s “The Weather Makers” as other examples of “alarmist” forecasts of the future.

  31. Pegasus @ 2715

    On John Faines ABC program yesterday- I think during an interview with Mark Butler – that by 2030 a staggering % of the national wealth will rest with those over 65. It was something like 60 or 65% (happy to be corrected is someone comes up with the right figure) – I was flabbergasted by the figure mentioned.

    BTW, Mark Butler was very impressive, knew his stuff, answered the inevitable Slipper questions in a professional way (didn’t get carried away) and got on with his topic.

  33. just to repeat what many think about Murdoch’s influence over politicians, especially when his commercial interests are in play.

    A clear example is the Australian’s jihad against the NBN, eagerly supported and prosecuted by Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.

    NBN is bad for the Foxtel monopoly, and NewsLtd outlets give the Liberals are dream run in return.

  34. rummel

    Ah back to one of the old faithuls of climate denialism.
    Slipper affair too slippery for you with all that mud sticking to the LNP?

  36. Peguses
    (. That could rise to $6392 if they were charged the full basic fee of $3163, although that is rarely charged at present.)

    How odd on all oc asions the daily fee was paid, i remembe12 dollars a day.from memory the i t. From the bond helped pay the 12 dollars a day.
    We also paid a bo d of 50 thousand, and mums pension was paid in to the home also leaving 10 dollars which she had left , mostly i sent this to the hairdress in the home as mum liked her hsir done
    She was a gold card w.w.. she died after three months and we got most of the bond back if not all
    With mother in law indtesd of a bond we paid all the rent, the daily fee came from her savings, she went to high care and from memory the dayly fee was not charged, in hig care, family home has
    Ne rr been an issue,

    So if it costs us a reasonable amou t to have home care if needed, i all for that.
    Not sure what your suggesting .

  38. r

    tsk, tsk, such verballing.

    Mr Lovelock has revised his timelines – not the scale of what is going to happen. IMHO, increasingly it won’t be the scientists or the corporate doubt merchants who matter in this debate.

    It will be ordinary humans who keep being confronted with a series of WTF moments. The US has just had its turn. 15,000+ climate records broken in March alone. $65 billion worth of climate-related damage in a single year. These events prompted a rapid growth in acceptance of AGW science amongst ordinary folk.

    The bark beetles are already very, very happy. They have killed around 6 billion trees in the US alone. All those warm nights mean that they survive from one year to the next instead of being killed off, most years.

  39. Scrutineer

    Richard J Evans in his excellent Third Reich series makes the point that the Nazis had an unsustainable economic model and that it would all have crumbled economically failry soon if they had not gone to war in 1939.

    You are probably right that the regime would have crumbled eventually, however, the thought of what would of occurred in the mean time if they had won is pretty ghastly to contemplate.

  40. [In my opinion, Vet Affairs should be made to concentrate solely on the welfare of surviving vets. They should be forced to abandon their proselytizing and promotion of the Anzac legend.]

    The “proselytizing and promotion of the ANZAC legend” represents such a minor part of what DVA actually does.

  42. Thanks (seriously) to all the posters who are adding to our knowledge of history with credible or reported anecdotes from a different era. Of course it’s always easier to judge in hindsight. BTW the abdicating Ed was in fact Ed V111 not Ed VII who was Queen Vic’s son and successor.

  43. Bemused: WW1 wasn’t all about the Nazi Party.

    Besides, Germany, and Austria in particular had, for many hundreds of years prior to the 20th century, been countries dripping in culture and sophistication. Many of the world’s greatest composers, writers and artists come from countries, like Germany & Austria.

    Are you seriously suggesting that such sophisticated and cultured countries were incapable of every reclaiming that proud history just because they happened to have a bunch of ratbags in change for a couple of decades?

  44. Uhlmann co-authoring an expose with Steve Lewis…. getting down into the gutter

    Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann · Close
    RT @MarmaladeFiles Everything is going according to plan. All will be revealed at the end of July.

  45. Victoria @ 2735

    I will not disagree. If Mark Butler can get through it, all credit to him – aged care has been the graveyard of a few political careers.

  47. Kezza2,

    Your post about Theophanus does bring up some interesting questions about outrageous accusations ruining the political careers of innocent people.

    However, Theophanus was actually charged and tried for Rape whereas Slipper has (at this stage) only been accused of sexual harassment. Theophanus standing aside in such circumstances is appropriate. However, the point that the case against him was always weak and probably should not have proceeded is very obvious post trial. The relationship between the Fairfax journo and the victim indeed bring the integrity of that organsisation in to question.

  48. [Bushfire Bill @1763
    Didn’t make it past the moderator. The $62.40 filing charge fact with link was probably the killer. You showing up the reporters with research. You bastard.
    (Thanks for the link/fact here though)]

    Yeah, noticed that. Are you allowed to post links at the ABC web site? I didn’t think of that… maybe they have a policy against it, in case the links are poisonous or contain viruses. Maybe they err on the side of caution? Come to think of it, not a totally silly idea.

  50. Scrutineer: yep, every country has had a bunch of murdering ratbags in charge for at least part of its history.

    Let’s not forget how Indigenous Australia was “conquered”…

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