GhostWhoVotes reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has the LNP’s two-party preferred lead at a towering 60.8-39.2 (the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final pre-election polls, for which they usually up the sample to about 1800), in line with the general impression elsewhere. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the LNP and 28 per cent for Labor. The results from the Newspoll at the start of the campaign were 47 per cent and 30 per cent, for 58-42 on two-party preferred. The poll also echoes last weekend’s Galaxy poll, as it does in all other respects, in showing Katter’s Australian Party has succeeded in its campaign period awareness-raising efforts: they are up five points to 9 per cent. The Greens are doing correspondingly poorly, down three points to 6 per cent, which compares with 8.4 per cent at the 2009 election. Also in common with Galaxy, Anna Bligh’s personal ratings have slumped, her approval down four to 36 per cent and her disapproval up seven to 51 per cent. Newman is respectively up two to 47 per cent and up three 40 per cent, and his lead as preferred premier has blown out from 50-41 to 58-36.
UPDATE: Full results here. Brisbane and rest-of-Queensland breakdowns are provided which, terrifyingly for Labor, show the carnage to be concentrated in the city where most of the damage awaits to be done: a swing of as much as 15 per cent (which is exactly Anna Bligh’s margin in South Brisbane), compared with about 8.5 per cent elsewhere.
Late news:
• Dennis Atkins in the Courier-Mail on the pressure the LNP was under mid-campaign:
Newman had been resisting internal urging to tackle the pecuniary interest issues for months, despite Labor having started their campaign against him seven months before the election. Now the party – with the steely James McGrath in the campaign director’s chair – and its leader had hit prime time, the stakes were so much greater, particularly because the target audience for Labor’s campaign was the voters of Ashgrove. After some intense internal discussion, Newman was convinced to announce on the second last Sunday that he and his wife would divest or blind trust their interests and, for good measure, declare he wasn’t a crook. There was another, until now, undisclosed tell-tale sign that the Labor campaign was biting. In the week before Newman made his bold announcement, the LNP team cut a high-risk ad. It was Lisa Newman, to camera, declaring her husband was a good man and saying these attacks were not just wrong but deeply hurtful to her family. It never saw the light of day but the fact it was made shows just how much pressure the Newman campaign in Ashgrove was under.
But then:
By the time Labor was getting traction on all this, two events derailed the whole thing. First, Bligh stood up in Caboolture and said she had no “material” to back the claims made against Newman. This was the “I got nothing” moment and sent the parties’ lines in their polling analysis bonkers. It was all going the wrong way for Bligh and the just-on-time right way for Newman. Two days later, the CMC offered the coup de grace, giving Newman an effective clearance and leaving Bligh high and dry … The timing of the CMC’s announcement – late on a Friday – left Labor tactically stranded. They couldn’t turn around their advertising buy for the weekend which meant the heavy negative spots on Newman kept running and the positive Bligh-to-camera burst didn’t get up until the last three broadcast days of the last week. When the ad ban came in at the end of Wednesday, Labor was left without what little paid media support they had and the small drag they had on the swing evaporated.
• Jamie Walker and Sarah Elks of The Australian report an LNP source says Katter’s Australian Party has “no chance” of winning any seats other than Mount Isa and Dalrymple.
• The Morning Bulletin newspaper has conducted its own poll of 330 respondents in its home seat of Rockhampton, probably with no great expertise, but with primary vote figures of 38 per cent for Labor candidate Bill Byrne, 37 per cent Gavin Finch of the LNP and 10 per cent for Shane Guley of Katter’s Australian Party. Retiring Labor member Rob Schwarten won the seat in 2009 with a two-party margin of 17.9 per cent.
• Bundaberg’s NewsMail has conducted an even more doubtful exercise involving 100 respondents in Burnett: 40 in Childers, 30 in Bargara and 30 in North Bundaberg. They found 42 supporters for LNP candidate Stephen Bennett, 23 for Labor’s Stuart Tomlinson and just 16 for incumbent Rob Messenger, who probably didn’t make the wisest career move when he quit mid-term to become an independent and declined to throw his lot in with Katter’s Australian Party.
• In a regular campaign feature where the Courier-Mail’s chief writers offer their verdict on the state of the campaign, Dennis Atkins goes nuclear: “The LNP will have the biggest majority in Queensland history – somewhere between 70 and 80 seats – I think nearer the latter. Labor will be reduced to 7 to 15 seats, closer to the former.” Madonna King tips “15 seats or less” for Labor. Koren Helbig and Sarah Vogler are more conservative, respectively tipping the LNP to win “as many as 70 seats” and Labor to to win fewer than 20. Steven Wardill likewise goes for a relatively modest “LNP 63, Labor 20, Independents 4, Katter’s Australian Party 2”. The general consensus is that Katter’s Australian Party should win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more (Nanango is generally rated the third most likely prospect). Nobody is tipping any of the three sitting independents to lose, but I think the $2.50 on the LNP to unseat Peter Wellington in Nicklin is worth a flutter (albeit that it came down from $3 overnight). As for my own tip the other day that Labor would win 19 seats, I would like everyone to know that I wrote on Twitter shortly after: “Suspect I’m being slightly kind to ALP.”
The pre-gloating in the media over the “Newmanslide” humiliation of the QLD ALP government is in going gangbusters today.
e.g. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/blighs-potential-successors-sweat-in-fight-for-seats-20120323-1vp5r.html
Calls to mind the words of a future American Prez, spoken at his Presser following immense humiliation running for governor of California in 1962: “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore…..”
Well, our MSM won’t have a Queensland ALP government to kick around anymore.
Living in NSW, I can attest it is no small consolation not to have a plethora of significant, or at least interesting, state and local matters totally ignored by the Fairfax press (I have no idea what gets printed in Murdoch pubs) while they obsessively barraged the last 3 NSW ALP Premiers with daily diatribes in almost every section bar the horoscopes. Even the sports pages were not exempt from the ubiquitous “voters waiting with baseball bats” metaphor.
For the past year, any bungling or inactivity by the NSW government elicits a light slap on the wrist from Fairfax pubs, who would’ve gone the mongrel whenever identical transgressions were perpetrated during the watches of Iemma, Rees or Keneally. Fairfax were scared shirtless of Carr’s wraith until his last term (e.g. Ross Gittins finally called out the illusion of Bob the Builder of state infrastructure).
To be clear, this isn’t about whether the Fairfax media generated to any degree the electoral demise of either the NSW or QLD ALP governments. Just that the “SMH” and “Illawarra Mercury” cover a vastly wider variety of state and local issues and concerns now that they’ve lost their favourite NSW ALP targets of opportunity.
I suppose the downside with legislating whatever you want is if there are ill consequences you have nobody to blame but yourself. (Although I bet QLD governments have made an art of blaming the councils and the Feds.)
One problem that will arise for Labor is, if they are reduced down to a cricket team, they won’t have many to choose from as captain. Are there any decent potential leaders in the batch of ALP candidates who’ll likely get reelected? I daresay their role will be that of a rebuilder rather than a contender for premier. (They may need Bligh to stick around for a while until the dust settles)
5 out of 10 Queenslanders primary for LNP.
3 out of 10 Queenslanders primary for Labor
1 out of 10 Queenslanders primary for Others
half a Queenslander primary for the Greens
half a Queenslander primary for Mr Katter’s Australia Party.
Don’t forget Thuringowa to the Katter Party so I can cash in my winnings.
I’m wanting a Wilkie-esque upset….
From Williams comments above –
Don tinfoil hats – this is what Katter has said –
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Katters-party-a-huge-powerful-machine-SP3Z9?OpenDocument&src=hp7
[“Don tinfoil hats – this is what Katter has said -“]
Katters name is worth gold up here in North Queensland, I wouldn’t underestimate him.
He’s one of the most popular MP in Federal Parliament based on Primary and TPP vote, unlike Oakeshott and Windsor who will probably lose their seats come next federal election.
Of course will that count in votes? Who knows… this is QLD and the one thing you should know about QLD is that anything can and will happen.
GeeWizz – see you are unbanned yet again.
Applying the Newspoll breakdown given for Brisbane shows that this could be seriously ugly for Labor tonight especially in Brisbane – even Anna Bligh’s own seat of Suoth Brisbane could go into the one to watch category. I have read that the Greens are directing preferences to the ALP in Ashgrove – is this occurring anywhere else?
[I have read that the Greens are directing preferences to the ALP in Ashgrove – is this occurring anywhere else?]
Yep, the Greens HTV put ALP above LNP in every seat. In Ashgrove they put ALP 2nd, in exchange ALP put Greens 2nd in Mt Coot-tha.
[There are reports that the ALP is preferencing the Australian Party in the seat of Thuringowa to dilute LNP votes in the seat currently held by Main Roads Minister Craig Wallace.]
Just for the wizzer. 😛
I’m giving GeeWizz day leave for the purposes of the Queensland election.
Interesting article for discussion, It is a general article on politics with focus on Queensland
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-labor-brand-is-damaged-and-so-is-the-product/
Diogenes, Rann had only 10 members after 1993 but the SA House of Assembly had roughly half the members of the Queensland Parliament. Ten or so in a house of 89 is derisory.
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Because of the more fluid nature of Qld politics only proportional representation would stop the lopsided majorities.
Looks like Katter is going to out poll the Greens.
He’s one of the most popular MP in Federal Parliament based on Primary and TPP vote
No he isn’t. He polled only 46.7% primary and at least 20 MPs got a higher 2PP than his 68.3%.
Actually Tom based on the current polls the LNP would still win a majority, just as they would have in NSW.
[Yep, the Greens HTV put ALP above LNP in every seat. In Ashgrove they put ALP 2nd, in exchange ALP put Greens 2nd in Mt Coot-tha.]
If the Green voters actually follow the ticket then some of the furniture may be saved.
[One problem that will arise for Labor is, if they are reduced down to a cricket team, they won’t have many to choose from as captain. ]
Is it going to be a cricket team, a thugby team or an AFL team?
I’m predicting an AFL team with one on the bench.
[Actually Tom based on the current polls the LNP would still win a majority, just as they would have in NSW.]
If there had been 5 or 7 member electorates in NSW, the Libs would still have had a thumping majority.
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I said it would stop LOPSIDED majorities. The LNP would get less than 60% (probably less the 55%) of the seats with PR in a landslide election in their favour. The same thing would apply to the ALP.
[I’m predicting an AFL team with one on the bench.]
Diogs, methinks it will be closer to a cricket team than an AFL team. At least no one has raised the spectre of a netball team.
Tom
Are you advocating an electorate based PR system or a list based?
It’s looking more likely that Green preferences will have bearing anywhere in this election and they probably did Newman a favour by singling out Ashgrove as the only seat where Labor were preferenced second. In the end sufficient people were turned off by the get Newman at all cost strategy.
Hopefully this will be the last time Labor allow Hawker to run an election campaign as his record is now pretty grim.
If the polls are accurate then my prediction is 70/14/2/3 – LNP/LP/KAP/IND.
Re my 74 – Green preferences will have no bearing
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Multi-member electorates.
bbp
Sometimes when there is a big swing on, it occurs disproportionately where it isn’t needed.
Anyway, as they say in the classics,
[A look at the scoreboard will tell you how much you lost by, but only your ass can tell you how bad the whipping was.]
On Tom’s point and let for argument sake put a side the malapporation but if we had multi MP areas using the local government regions which I think there are about 63 around the country would be an interesting result and would enable a continuation of a community of interest requirement for the Local Government regions are already widely used by government agencies.
[Sometimes when there is a big swing on, it occurs disproportionately where it isn’t needed. ]
Yes, that is true, but sometimes it is not possible to achieve a big swing where you don’t need it as there are just not enough of those votes to get, as occurred say, in North Shore seats in the last NSW election.
I agree with MME legislatures.
I have my own proposal for SA, similar to Tasmania’s, where there would be 7 electorates electing 7 members each to the HoA (or, alternatively, 9 electorates with 7 MPs, if you abolish the LC)
Anthony Grace,
[ only this time it is being run by a very smart, honest, aboveboard, hard working professional young man instead of a corrupt old redneck. ]
That’s not a very nice way to refer to Sir Joh!
[“There are reports that the ALP is preferencing the Australian Party in the seat of Thuringowa to dilute LNP votes in the seat currently held by Main Roads Minister Craig Wallace.”]
I don’t know how this will work out strategy wise, but my bank account wise it sounds very good strategy indeed. Anyone know where the LNP are directing preferences in Thuringowa?
Just from the hustings up here in Townsville based on posters seen for the different parties, basically I’ve only seen Labor posters for the seat of Townsville member minus any reference to Anna Bligh, and an equal amount of Townsville LNP member with bonus Campbell Newman poster, only occassional Katter posters spotted in Townsville seat.
Plenty of Katter posters however spotted in Thuringowa probably 2 to 1 to LNP posters, no Labor posters spotted.
Outside of Townsville it’s a Katter poster fiesta with every second gumtree plastered with them, no LNP or Labor posters spotted.
If posters win elections my bet is looking very good.
Oh yes and I forgot “Mundingburra” LNP Crissafulli posters spotted all over the place.
I question just how popular this former council member is however after all the local rate rises, this is one to watch however I think his name may pull him through.
Townsvillians don’t take too kindly to former councillors, see ex-Mayor Tony Mooneys run at the 2010 Federal Election for an example of how not to pre-select someone(he was tossed out in the Townsville amalgumation council election, so Labor thought it was a good idea to run him for a Federal Seat??? What were they thinking?!)
ALP or rather Union dirty trick HTV card.
For all the people who are appalled at the thought of tiny Oppositions, whether ALP or LNP, here’s a link to apply for membership of the Proportional Representation Society: http://www.electoralreformaustralia.org/index.php/membership . That will get you into the NSW branch – if enough Queenslanders do it we can reconstitute a Qld branch.
John Pyke, National V-P, PRSA (not to be confused with the Public Relations Society of America!)
Okay, my tip is:
LNP: 64
ALP: 19
KAP: 3 (Mt Isa, Dalrymple and Nanango)
Ind: 3 (Nicklin, Gladstone and Maryborough)
Less crushing than what many pollsters are predicting, but still a comprehensive win for the LNP. Anna Bligh to stick around for six months as a punching bag for Newman, before resigning to make way for Palaszczuk to be leader.
I have money down on KAP winning Mundingburra as well but I see it a harder feat with Crissafulli’s brand name running for LNP. Fingers crossed
Hasn’t the KAP “already” got two sitting members?
On Katter, two seats that may bolt from the blue
Gregory – Safe LNP turf but shares a border with seat of Mt Isa
Barron River – The KAP are running the former LNP candidate, she lead on primaries last time before falling short
[“Hasn’t the KAP “already” got two sitting members?”]
Or Pauline Hansons One Nation despending on your point of view
For the record, my tip is:
LNP: 74
ALP: 11
KAP: 2 (Mt Isa, Dalrymple)
Ind: 3 (Nicklin, Gladstone and Maryborough)
No Greens or independent workers at Mansfield State School, (Mansfield) either this morning, or this afternoon, that either my wife (AM) or I (PM) could see when we voted. LNP, ALP and KAP only.
Oops, subtraction error – that should have been LNP 73.
@91
A friend of mine put it to me that KAP is essentially the ONP without the overt racism. The actual support base is largely the same, and anecdotally a lot of the people who are enthusiastic about KAP were the ones who were enamoured with Pauline.
The difference I’d say is that the KAP seems to be a lot more well run and structured organisation than the complete administrative chaos that was the ONP, which may make the difference for them in the long run.
[“A friend of mine put it to me that KAP is essentially the ONP without the overt racism.”]
Lank,
Some of the members of QLD Parliament are Ex-PHON, Ex-Nationals, Ex-Independents turn Katter Party. The only bed they haven’t been in is the ALP.
Some would call them oppurtunists, others would call that politically savy. Certainly as the chances of said party losing increases they jump ship.
Hey tru.. oops wizzy
Bob Katter says one in three voters exiting the pre-polling booths in Townsville on Friday gave him the thumbs up or shook his hand. He said it surprised him because the city was not considered a “strong contender” for The Australian Party.
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Also the Katter party is likely to get MP(s) into Parliament at the start of a LNP Government who can be the leadership and build up support during the first term of the LNP Government. Having a Brisbane based LNP Premier also helps the Katter Party significantly.
It will be interesting to see where the KAP gets votes from, will it be disenchanted Nats or ALP or both?
All things considered in the last 48 hours, I will revise my previously made prediction (made on Thursday) to
LNP 59-41 2PP (had previously said 57-43)
LNP 72 (was 62)
ALP 11 (was 21)
KAP 3 (no change)
IND 3 (no change)
Newman to win Ashgrove 55-45 2PP (was 52.5-47.5)
Ruawake…. Bob Katters federal seat is partly made up of Townsville… mainly the large population in the housing estates on the northern side of Townsville but also smaller population pockets to the west.
It’s why I could not understand for the life of me why Thuringowa(western side of Townsville) betting was paying $51 bucks on a Katter Party win. I don’t know how much more Katter country you can get other than Mt Isa.