Just as Galaxy arrived a week ago to support ReachTEL’s contention that Kate Jones had hit the lead in Ashgrove, so it has emerged on the eve of polling day to confirm that Campbell Newman has surged ahead. Whereas last week’s Galaxy poll had the two locked together on 45 per cent of the primary vote, the latest survey of 800 voters conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday evening gives Newman a resounding lead of 52 per cent to 38 per cent, with Jones’s 51.5-48.5 two-candidate lead transformed into a 55-45 lead for Newman. Of the series of further questions asked by Galaxy, the most telling result is that Labor’s accusations against Newman of involvement in dodgy deals has 21 per cent professing themselves more likely to vote for Newman, compared with 11 per cent a week ago, with only 12 per cent saying less likely, down from 19 per cent. This is consistent with a perception that Anna Bligh was badly damaged a week ago when she conceded Labor was unable to pursue its allegations through the Crime and Misconduct Commission because it didn’t have enough material.
The emphasis on Ashgrove Peter Brent at Mumble calculates the average household in the electorate would have been called by pollsters at least three times in the past six months, and a 7.30 Report vox pop respondent claimed to have been polled that many times in the past week has resulted in a relative paucity of state-level polling. With Newspoll’s final effort still to come, all we have to go on for now is a meagre effort from Roy Morgan: a phone poll of just 202 respondents. For what it’s worth, this has the LNP leading on the primary vote 51 per cent to 28 per cent, or 62-38 on two-party preferred. Personal ratings from the poll are also available at the link, and they’re in line with the results of last week’s statewide Galaxy poll.
Meanwhile, Sportsbet has repeated its gimmick from before the NSW state election of paying out for an LNP win without waiting for the election to be held.