Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Ashgrove

Just as Galaxy arrived a week ago to support ReachTEL’s contention that Kate Jones had hit the lead in Ashgrove, so it has emerged on the eve of polling day to confirm that Campbell Newman has surged ahead. Whereas last week’s Galaxy poll had the two locked together on 45 per cent of the primary vote, the latest survey of 800 voters conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday evening gives Newman a resounding lead of 52 per cent to 38 per cent, with Jones’s 51.5-48.5 two-candidate lead transformed into a 55-45 lead for Newman. Of the series of further questions asked by Galaxy, the most telling result is that Labor’s accusations against Newman of involvement in “dodgy deals” has 21 per cent professing themselves more likely to vote for Newman, compared with 11 per cent a week ago, with only 12 per cent saying less likely, down from 19 per cent. This is consistent with a perception that Anna Bligh was badly damaged a week ago when she conceded Labor was unable to pursue its allegations through the Crime and Misconduct Commission because it didn’t have “enough material”.

The emphasis on Ashgrove – Peter Brent at Mumble calculates the average household in the electorate would have been called by pollsters at least three times in the past six months, and a 7.30 Report vox pop respondent claimed to have been polled that many times in the past week – has resulted in a relative paucity of state-level polling. With Newspoll’s final effort still to come, all we have to go on for now is a meagre effort from Roy Morgan: a phone poll of just 202 respondents. For what it’s worth, this has the LNP leading on the primary vote 51 per cent to 28 per cent, or 62-38 on two-party preferred. Personal ratings from the poll are also available at the link, and they’re in line with the results of last week’s statewide Galaxy poll.

Meanwhile, Sportsbet has repeated its gimmick from before the NSW state election of paying out for an LNP win without waiting for the election to be held.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

46 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Ashgrove”

  1. I blogged a couple of analyses of the Queensland election over the last couple of days:

    Queensland: A King Tide of Negativity

    Followed by
    Queensland: How Labor could have won

    The mood of the Queensland electorate at the moment – if all these polls are accurate – reminds me of boys I used to mix with at school when I ignored my parents’ sound advice.

    They’d pull wings of butterflies just because they can – and seem desperate to purchase that nicely-packaged new candy-bar from the tuck-shop, despite plenty of evidence that the contents, once unwrapped, are quite inedible.

  2. The mood of QLD’ers is one of people who have recognized that a tired and poor performing government has reached their UBD and have to be replaced with a fresh alternative. The mood has virtually been there since 2009.

    Talk of bullies and butterfly’s is just sour grapes and ignores the realities of the situation.

  3. Zoidlord hate is a strong word. Basically I think most people now just want it to be over. The size of the apparent swing is my biggest worry because we suffered too many years of weak opposition and we really are due for a strong opposition to keep the bast$&@” honest.

  4. [The mood of QLD’ers is one of people who have recognized that a tired and poor performing government has reached their UBD and have to be replaced with a fresh alternative. The mood has virtually been there since 2009.]

    Same pointless baseless spin you sprouted about NSW. And like NSW they will get a substantially poorer govt for their trouble.

  5. David, I do agree with you on that one, although my family hates newman with 10 foot poll, so perhaps abit biased (even though they to tend to be swinging voters).

  6. Anna Bligh sounded good on AM this morning. Also talked of an ongoing investigation, wasn’t the last thread full of claims there was no evidence? So were you wrong or just selectively spinning?

  7. WWP

    The NW Raillink is getting built in NSW

    After ALP proposed it 11 times and O’Farrell propose it once.

    And the NSW ALP budget doubled in the time the ALP was in office

  8. I have no problem with change. I’ve wanted some real, positive changes in Queensland for years.

    But change for change’s sake is the political creed of fools. Many LNP candidates who seem likely to ride this wave into parliament have never been subjected to real scrutiny. That certainly applies in my own area, where they’ve been debate shy and barely said an original word during the entire campaign. Where scrutiny has been applied, it’s usually been to the discredit of LNP candidates. Google Mark Boothman if you doubt this.

    As someone who lives in an exceptional part of the world in environmental terms, we seem about to the frying pan for the fire – a Labor Government that was at least amenable to rational debate for an LNP team that seem contemptuous even of environmental assessment. How can this be wise?

    If the LNP sweeps into power as predicted, Newman’s script is utterly predictable. I’ll summarise it now. He’ll “discover” to his “horror” that the State’s finances are actually in MUCH worse shape than he ever thought possible. Then cuts in services well begin. The poor and less well-off will suffer most along with the environment. Labor’s balancing act will be replaced with a governing style that’s ideologically hostile to the notion of non-pecuniary public interest. When the mining boom ends we’ll become a nastier, meaner state – and even less competent custodians of our heritage than at present.

    That’s my take FWIW. I’d be delighted to be proven wrong, because it’s a gloomy view.

    As for The Greens, if they aren’t able to capture even some of the Labor vote they should ask themselves some hard questions. My disappointment with the Greens is mainly focused at the national leadership, which seems to have abandoned the peace movement (pro-peace, anti-imperialist foreign policies was a major reason I joined the party years ago). But at a State level, while I believe The Greens are correct to oppose the ecologically disastrous export coal industry they have failed to develop and promote a coherent alternative economic policy that’s seen to be viable. The Greens are unlikely to best the major conservative parties at the polls until they do.

  9. WWP re 6 I don’t believe I was a PB member 12 months ago so not sure what you are referring to. Look you need to just accept the overwhelming mood of the voters. That’s democracy at work.

  10. [WWP

    The NW Raillink is getting built in NSW

    After ALP proposed it 11 times and O’Farrell propose it once.

    And the NSW ALP budget doubled in the time the ALP was in office]

    You don’t seem to have a point.

  11. I’m definitely no fan of he LNP, but Labor deserve their wipeout for waging such a totally bogus smear campaign. Such arrogance.

  12. Syd @ #12

    [But change for change’s sake is the political creed of fools. Many LNP candidates who seem likely to ride this wave into parliament have never been subjected to real scrutiny.]

    I agree that no change ought to be made politically for change’s sake. I think the most glaring example of this error was the removal of John Howard in 2007 by Kevin Rudd. The fact that Rudd was pillioried for his mantra of “me too” on almost every policy front was evidence that it was not (workchoices the obvious, raw exception here!) policy that the electorate was responding to, they just felt it was time for a change. As much as commentators & the political class like to pontificate about the ‘reasons’ for the change, chances are, like most things, such were complex in the mind of voters.

    Contrasting that with the ALP in Queensland, we have a government that is lamentable, not perhaps to the shameful degree of NSW Labor, but nonetheless emptied of its talent and making far too many mistakes. No single “workchoices-like” castor oil policy that the electorate just can’t swallow but many stuff-ups and less-than-transparent objectives.

    Queensland Rail was a mess all through Beattie’s tenure and he’d be the first to admit that it wasn’t solved when he left. Likewise with the toxic Queensland Health System, bad under Beattie, worse under Bligh. Traveston Dam was always a political landmine and bit Bligh harder than even she expected. All in all not a competent organisation. You can always tell.

    Not a single cabinet minister left office in the year before Howard’s fall. They felt, as partisan as they were, they were running a good ship. Not so with Bligh’s Labor government, where more than a dozen have either retired, resigned from parliament or been relieved from their posts in the last 18 months. They knew the writing was on the wall, long before the electorate.

    This is a poor government that deserves everything it gets tomorrow. Sure, we get the government we deserve but the government also gets the seats in parliament that they deserve. In Queensland, at present, any more than 13 should be counted as a bonus. 🙂

  13. [But change for change’s sake is the political creed of fools]

    And the Australian voter has shown over the years that they don’t vote for change for the sake of change – they vote for something better or the equal to what they have now. And if they are in doubt they work on the “better the devil you know” principle. NSW 2007 was the classic example of that – the government was old and tired but the Libs did not present a valid alternative – so the Iemma government was voted back in. Possibly, Qld 2009 was the same – SEQ were not prepared to vote in a coalition led by the Nats. And landslides alsways drag in a bit of baggage that would never have got up otherwise.

  14. WeWantPaul

    One party uses Spin to stay in the office, the other use action.

    I remember when Julia and Kristina were unveiling the NW Railroad for the 12th times, and they were laughed at. It is an horrendous reflection of their political ability, that they both through unveiling something for the 12th time would not be met with ridicule and remind people of NSW, how full of shit the ALP is. Gillard should also get a stupidity award, by linking herself with the NSW ALP.

    The NSW ALP is so talentless that there is no way they can win the next 2 election 64-36 shows the people of NSW have lots of sense, after falling 3 times for ALP spin machine

  15. Syd

    [I’ll summarise it now. He’ll “discover” to his “horror” that the State’s finances are actually in MUCH worse shape than he ever thought possible.]

    As sure as night follows day.

  16. zoidlord

    Some people sees the truth (ie I knew Howard stayed too long and would lose) Some people will go to their graves thinking the NSW/Qld ALP actually did a good job.

    Some people need to get back to the real world

  17. I agree with you on NSW bit (even the average labor person can).

    But I’m just saying the way you’re saying it is just crap.

    Any Party uses Spin and any party can be Shit.

  18. Okay this looks like being an interesting election.

    Since the asset sales announced after the last poll, the Blight Government has had an up hill battle to hold office and to its credit, it has preformed quite well.

    QR National has in stock terms preformed quite well even with today profit downgrade.

    12 months ago Anna Bligh was outstanding in the manner in which she managed the floods and Yasti and for a while I felt she had a very strong claim on being re-elected.

    The LNP in my view took a massive risk going with Newman in Ashgrove a seat that they should usually win but currently has a strong local MP in Kate Jones and I hope she goes onto great things.

    The day was always going to come when the LNP won back the Gold Coast and it looks like that time has come and they have been under preforming in Brisbane for a long time.

    I wrote it at the time but I think a real positive for Campbell in the south-east was that stupid Katter ad for it showed Campbell to be a non crusty Nat.

    Over all the Bligh Government has been a good government and while this is a state campaign on state issues yet their is an overhang of federal issues just as we saw in reverse during the Howard years when strong Liberal areas at state level were voting ALP in large numbers.

    I think the LNP will win this election by a larger margin, the ALP should be happy if they can hold at least 50% of their seats and the real unknown factor will be the Australia Party.

    A few weeks ago I made the point that the LNP may find themselves losing as many seats to the AP as they gain from the ALP and even though I think the voters have harden against the Government in recent weeks, the AP could still be the difference between a LNP landslide or a simple majority.

    I hope both Bligh and Jones find their ways to Canberra although I don’t see many opportunities in 2013.

  19. I can’t help but observe Mr Newman will always be subject to speculation about his seat. If he wins Ashgrove marignally during a massive lanslide, won’t he be exposed to a real possibilty of losing next time around (even if LNP retain power). Won’t he need a safe seat at some point? How does he change seats without annoying people now?

  20. I agree with both Carey and Zoidlord about spin and crap. Has it ever happened before that 3 posters agree both sides can be crappy?

  21. The question is how much furniture could Rudd have saved? I suspect some.
    If ALP is reduced down to a cricket side(which looks like happening) then come the federal election, the result in Queensland will be either Rudd will retain or lose his seat…and that’s it! 1 or 0…scary stuff

  22. RA #27
    [If he wins Ashgrove marignally during a massive lanslide, won’t he be exposed to a real possibilty of losing next time around (even if LNP retain power)]

    Great point and was discussed in our tea room today at morning tea by four of us in or next to that electorate. Kate Jones has, by all accounts, been a solid member. Perhaps spurred on to do local things in her electorate only after Newman announcing candidacy last year and certainly lacking much in the way of life experience outside ALP offices but nonetheless well-liked.

    One comment from a colleague is that Newman will do nothing for the seat of Ashgrove whilst Jones would. I had to politely disagree. Any changes Kate would like that are at odds with Newman simply won’t happen. She would be a backbencher in a small opposition. On the contrary, Newman, if he wins, (still only a 67% chance by imputed odds on Ashgrove) will have a fairly marginal seat.

    Actually, the DUMB thing for him to do is ignore local issues in Ashgrove before the next election. My guess is that the ONLY way that local issues can be heard in the next three years for Ashgrove is to elect Newman.

    What a strange political environment we have!

  23. Any 20 year old government is going to struggle to stay in office. Governments make decisions and many of these decisions have a downside for some group in the community. Over a long period, that means a lot of people are adversely affected in some way, and human beings always seem to remember the downsides better then the upsides. Even the Menzies government and its successors suffered from this towards the end.
    I think this is the major factor in the Qld election, and I think the LNP recognise it as well, because that’s been the key of their campaign.
    The fascinating thing will be the composition of the governing parties after the election. If the LNP does very well there will be a lot of former Liberals around and I’m not sure how the former Nationals will cope with that – they are so used to being the dominant partner that it might be very interesting! On the other hand, if their win is narrower, the Liberals around Newman might have a fair bit of difficulty opposing the socialist tendencies of the former Nationals and that might be even more interesting! They may prove me wrong and be a harmonious and smoothly functioning unit, but the history of Qld politics doesn’t indicate this as a a very likely possibility.
    Interestingly, while writing this I have taken a (recorded) phone call from Peter Beattie urging me to vote for my local (Labor) member to limit Newman’s power, so the ALP obviously haven’t stopped trying to influence the outcome – much frantic pedaling is still going on below the surface.

  24. I was also thinking that a handicap for Newman is being Premier in a marginal seat. He’ll need to campaign there more much more often, using up time where he could be campaigning in other marginals.

    I think that’s why most leaders try to stay in more secure seats, so that they can be sure that they could survive an election. As Premiers/Opposition Leaders, they’re going to do much more campaigning elsewhere than in their own seats, so they like to have big majorities as buffers. If Newman wants to keep his seat, he’ll essentially have to be “The Premier of Ashgrove and Queensland”, since I’d imagine that Labor would not take a loss in Ashgrove lightly and be back with a vengeance in 2014/15 campaign.

    The last leader on a marginal was John Howard. I’d imagine that he nonetheless felt secure in Bennelong because before 2007, it was never held by Labor. Ashgrove on the other hand has been Labor since 1989, and teetering on the margin throughout the 70’s and 80’s.

    But if Newman thinks he can keep both his seat and government if he wins, well, good luck to him. That’ll be a lot of work for someone totally new to parliament.

  25. [Some people will go to their graves thinking the NSW/Qld ALP actually did a good job. ]

    I think both Governments did a good to excellent job taking into consideration the full term. Given many opportunities to be specific about things the governments did wrong over two elections now there has only be vague rubbish and much use of the word corruption, being used incorrectly.

    So just old governments where the people give the B team a try without really caring how badly the B goes. Real chance for Campbell to make NSW libs tolook comparatively good.

  26. I think the notion that if Newman wins Ashgrove with a 2PP of under 55% (as I expect), it will be a dangerous seat for him in 2015 is probably misguided. Suburban Brisbane is much “softer” politically than Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide, by which I mean it is less polarised along class lines, with a huge “soft centre” of voters without firm class identity or fixed political loyalty. So when Labor wins big, it wins virtually everything in Brisbane, as it did in 2001. When the Libs win big, they win virtually everything, as they apparently will tomorrow. If Newman gets a second term, it will be because the Brisbane seats consolidate behind him, as they consolidated behind Labor after 1998 for the next three elections. Unless his government crashes and burns in its first term (possible but not likely), he will make Ashgrove a fairly safe LNP seat.

  27. I see. Thank you for explaining that.

    I was thinking more along the lines that if an opposition (especially a Liberal one) wins an election in a substantial swing, they generally lose around half of the seats they gained previously are lost in the next election (ie – Federally the Liberals won 28 seats in 1996 and lost 14 in 1998; Labor won 23 in 2007 and lost 11 in 2010; in NSW the Liberals won 22 seats in 1988 and lost 10 in 1991. I know of the exceptions though, like Victoria in 1992/96, WA in 2001/05 and Queensland in 1989/92), and I assumed Ashgrove may be high on the list of those in danger of going back.

    Queensland does indeed seem to work differently though, they’ve only changed government in a full state election 3 times in the past 80 years.

  28. Sydney class polarized? In part but its also Muslims & atheists vs. the rest unlike Melbourne. 2011 NSW for every 10% increase in non-Christians Labor vote up 3% (Jews in Vaucluse notwithstanding), and for non-professionals/managers up 7% for every 10% increase. Victoria rather different.

  29. I don’t think Australian Muslims vote as Muslims. They vote Labor for the same reason the great majority of working-class immigrants do: because they see Labor as the party that defends their economic well-being, and also as the party of multi-culturalism.

  30. A so-so long term administration has run out of steam. A listless opp alighted on a blokey, known leader. sound familiar?

    Rudd Labor won a 5% swing in the same context: why Newman could get 10% is the conundrum. (I’m assuming that swing; the polls are back to where they were a year ago). Sure, Qld ran into economic downswing earlier and harder: not Bligh/Fraser’s fault, but you take the credit/blame. But even Keating, unloved by the many and coming out of a tough recession, managed 39% primary/46+ TPP.

    Everything under about 37/45 tomorrow represents contemporary Labor’s nadir, and needs explaining beyond blaming a decent, intelligent Premier or Banabending differences. Grattan et al are wrong to say this election has federal implications for
    Labor: rather it reflects an Australia-wide malaise for the party.

    (All that said, neither Qld ALP nor LNP have the talent to fill a ministry: state politics nationwide isn’t attracting enough calibre.)

  31. Von K @ 38.

    “Queensland does indeed seem to work differently though, they’ve only changed government in a full state election 3 times in the past 80 years.”

    Sure there are regional differences in Oz, but they are less than we imagine. Long term govts were the norm everywhere. QLD is about to change a 5th time since the last war began, just over 70 yrs ago. That’s the same as NSW.

  32. Just returned home to a last minute Robo-Call from Kev. For ‘my friend Simon Finn’. I’m guessing he recorded a few dozen otherwise identical spiels.

  33. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39.2 (-2.8) LNP 60.8 (+2.8) #qldvotes #auspol]

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