Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. The punters must warm to PM Gillard first, before they are warming to the Govt #auspol We know they are COLD to Abbott

  2. The Dec 2nd poll had the following primaries:
    ALP 31
    Coal 44
    Green 13
    Other 12

    and was 54:46, so it must have been close to that this time.

  3. So much for the theory that the 53/47 was due to voters thinking Rudd was back

    A no change newspoll after all the leadership ruckus, with Gillard back in front as PPM is very troubling for the oppositions

  4. [MT regaining the leadership will create a split.]

    Yep. Abbott’s leadership united the Liberals, which is indicative of where the support lies.

  5. Tobe
    Posted Monday, March 12, 2012 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    [ Odd poll… Greens must have a good primary.

    But at least the TPP headline suggests there is a trend back to the government IMO, and not because people expect Rudd to be PM. This is poll is nothing out of the ordinary for a government at this point in the cycle. ]

    And hopefully when the sky doesn’t fall in on 1 July with carbon pricing and the punters understand the implications of Abbott’s promise to repeal compensation surely it will be Game On.

  6. [So much for the theory that the 53/47 was due to voters thinking Rudd was back]

    Someone please pick on Possum for saying that 🙂

  7. [Sorry Tobe. Matty Franklin has spoken:]

    Thanks BB
    🙂

    Of course we don’t have preferential voting… the TPP means nothing… silly me…

  8. STOP THE CAPS

    As long, of course, as it’s safe to stop particular caps in the judgment of personnel on the spot. No caps at all might end up being stopped.

  9. [Labor Loses leadership bounce
    10:30PM Matthew Franklin LABOR has been unable to hold the bounce in voter support it achieved on the eve of last month’s leadership ballot. ]

    I’m just waiting with the popcorn ready for the second Newspoll in July once the compensation has flowed into pay packets.

  10. [GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (0) L/NP 53 (0) #qanda #auspol
    GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 39 (+3) Abbott 37 (-1) #qanda #auspol]

    Exactly as I predicted in my post at 1272 earlier this afternoon, with PM Gillard moving ahead of Abbott as PPM, but status quo on TPP.

    Having said all that, I’m usually too optimistic in my Newspoll prognostications, but even a clock that’s stopped is right twice a day!

  11. No surprise how the OO will spin this.

    Abbott must be a little nervous tho. Like Rudd, Newspoll is his only friend (at this point the PV and 2PP)

  12. is pv down for both how does that work.

    ????
    Mod lib why would mt be any more accepted than last time was the numbers around The same as mr neilson.

    Any way how any one votes liberal is beyond of my comprehension ,
    Night

  13. [Argumentalist ‏ @argumentalist
    So Abbott polls 6 points below his party’s primary vote, while Gillard polls 8 points above hers, and 1 above Abbott. #runrabbitrunrabbit]

    [Andrew Elder ‏ @awelder
    @argumentalist That’s why @samanthamaiden’s story is on ALP primary vote. Original scoophound that one]

  14. when is staying the same a loss? when youre Labor and the OO is reporting your numbers.

    apparently its the PV not the 2PP that matters

    Shanahan poll reporting 101: (a) highlight whichever metric is worst for Labor and (b) write why that metric is most important

    Funny how they made so much of Abbott getting in front on PPM last time he took the lead, but the Gillard movement, particularly given the leadershit, is not that important this time round

  15. [Exactly as I predicted in my post at 1272 earlier this afternoon, with PM Gillard moving ahead of Abbott as PPM, but status quo on TPP.

    Having said all that, I’m usually too optimistic in my Newspoll prognostications, but even a clock that’s stopped is right twice a day!]

    You called it correctly TBS. High fives to you.

  16. Some one call?

    [TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    @Pollytics Poss, so much for your theory of last #Newspoll of 53-47 was due to Ruddstoration]

  17. [who did u steal it from?]
    THE SAME GUY I STOLE THE MOCCASIN SHOES I AM WEARING FROM.

    IF ANYONE WANTS TO KNOW WHAT I THINK ABOUT ANY ISSUE, JUST READ MR PUFFER’S POSTS. I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING HE SAYS.

  18. unfortunately Finns, just like the OO, Poss will highlight the PV drop

    would have been so much better to have a no change PV, then nothing could be spun out of it

  19. What sense of obligation or compulsion would induce a relative stranger to proffer advice to one group of proponents in a financial dispute on behalf of another, unasked, gratuitously and uninvited?

    Oh, wait …

  20. FS

    Precisely. Barnaby needs to be asked if he and Schultz are the mouthpiece for vested interests. As MPs are they anti climate change policy and mining tax because of Ms Gina. This is at the heart of it all.

  21. [fulvio its a most curious story. Joyce’s intervention is bizarre. We should hear more about this]

    Andrew, it is not bizarre at all. Moneys talk.

  22. I haven’t heard about Julie Bishop’s involvement, just the Barnaby cockatoo and la famille Abetz.

    What’s she been up to?

  23. Showson,

    IF ANYONE WANTS TO KNOW WHAT I THINK ABOUT ANY ISSUE, JUST READ MR PUFFER’S POSTS. I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING HE SAYS.

    You are depriving a village of a goose-boy.

  24. Andrew

    I mentioned earlier on that Swan has set the narrative for the past few weeks. Interesting, that this comes to light just in time for the sitting of parliament.

  25. Fulvio:

    Jbishop got the same treatment Barnaby did.

    At least she had the sense to declare the flight as a gift though.

  26. The finns

    Of course money talks. Barnaby and Schultz are electing Members of Parliament. Are they representing the electorate and the national interest, or the interest of a mining magnate with vested interests. Who has pushed her agenda of anti climate policy and anti mining tax. Frankly, these individuals are comprising this democracy

  27. The finns

    I know money talks. But Barnaby and Schultz are elected Members of Parliament. Are they representing their electorate and the national interest? Or a mining magnate with vested interests. Someone who has pushed against climate policy and a mining tax. This is so far removed from democracy, and it stinks.

  28. ‘Fess, you’re rigHt, it was the Shultz’s. I read Alby’s missus was also part of that approach.

    But apart from the freeby, what did the Bishop woman actually do in respect of the family dispute? I’ve not seen or heard anything.

  29. [You are depriving a village of a goose-boy.]
    OK, I”M NOT SURE I AGREE WITH THIS. BUT EVERYTHING ELSE SIR PUFFALOT SAYS IS SPOT ON. HE IS RIGHT ON EVERY ISSUE OTHER THAN THIS ONE.

  30. fulv

    ginia apparently relented after talking to a family friend

    perhaps that is the link

    also on twitter there has been links to JB’s past legal career

    In no way is this an assertion, just passing on speculation

Comments are closed.

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