Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. Gawd knows how Franklin decides that Swannie’s attack on the billionaires causes a drop in the labor primary.
    We need LSL to explain it for us peasants.

  2. [gusface
    Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    I understand that

    but ultimately the undecided/other gets washed thru to the 2pp

    u did it a few posts back]

    Gus, I see Ghost who votes is explaining this to you on twitter so I’ll leave it at that!

  3. My reading of the TPP whilst unscientific has 31 v 43 leaving 26 I then surmise that 24 splits 14-12 leaving the TPP at 45-55

  4. Hi guys

    There I was watching perhaps the least partisan and well considered Q&A I have seen for a long time…..

    And the signal went down!

    A few minutes of silent fulmination produced an imaginative leap.

    I pulled the antenna on the pvr, plugged it into the tv and switched to analogue.

    Which I guess was local ABC, as I hardly lost a minute or two of the broadcast.

    Think I need a splitter?

    Go Tanya, Malcolm for his rightful place. I expect Tanya would be relieved to be debating with a person who uses his brain.

    And in all the meantime since Q&A ended, the Internet would not load so this message could not be posted till now.

    More silent fulmination!!

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