Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  5. That IPA/Spectator forum was the funniest thing. Danish muslim cartoons from 2006, cartoons published in the Australian media in 2004, Bob Brown citing the hate media, Bob the media inquiry…count the ways in which our free speech is curtailed!

    Funnier still that those whingeing about it are all high profile commentators, with prominent, often multiple platforms from which to speak. Talk about stretching credulity!

  8. The Qld and the WA figures do not seem to gell with other polling on those states. Maybe from a very small sample?

    If those figures were anything to go by, Labor would only need to tighten up its NSW and
    Tasmanian support and they’d get in comfortably. I don’t believe Labor are even close to that position yet, but it’s looking more likely that their position might improve over 6 months from now.

    Just fantasies at present, but I think William has drawn the right conclusion (partly confirmed by Essential) that Labor has not taken a hit from the surfacing of leadership ructions. And that is very good news, seeing they now have a bit of clear air.

  11. James Spigelman’s appointment as the new AB Chairman seems to have an immediate effect. No -ive story on the Govt but a biggie on the Oppn

  12. Just took a look at CH10 report on Kafer. Casts Smith in much better light and Kafer as insensitive. Also says cadets room smeared with “jif cleaning foam’

  13. GD,

    The impact that the arrival of Carr will have on Labor’s NSW figures is the real potential game changer for the Government.

  15. Beats me how anyone could write any party off, so far out from an election.

    I doubt William would be silly enough to join that, predominant, media camp.

  16. [Not to mention that they routinely abuse same with unbalanced and unaccountable diatribes.]

    Indeed. The IPA guy who agreed with a questioner that granting rights to minorities infringes free speech seems spectacularly unbalanced to me.

  17. Good evening bludgers.

    Looks like a good poll from Qld Ashgrove and another one from Morgan F2F has everyone excited. Could be interesting times over the next couple of weeks.

  18. [Just took a look at CH10 report on Kafer. Casts Smith in much better light and Kafer as insensitive. Also says cadets room smeared with “jif cleaning foam’]

    Well that backs up News Ltd who said the room was not smeared with shaving foam. Sneaky bastards. 🙁

  19. GD:

    There’s Newspoll this weekend, presumably. And Essential again on Monday, and at some stage Morgan will do a phone poll – assuming they still do them. Plenty of polling to come in order to determine whether the leadership stuff was bad for the govt.

  20. MY SAY MY SAY MY SAY

    Sorry to shout but I saw something today which may interest you. The new I-Pad has a voice recognition thingo so you can dictate the words rather than type them. If your fingers are not as nimble as they used to be it sounds a boon. 🙂

  21. Yep – just caught the Ch10 item on Smith which, due to the “leak” vindicates Smith’s position and has made Abbott look stupid (again) not to mention the Blimps who were/are calling for Smith to be moved.

    For this sort of reaction, it means Smith must be doing something right.

    He doesn’t make too many mistakes.

    I would like to know how/why Ch10 had access to the “secret report” as rest of news media seem totally devoid of anything to do with this item.

  22. I’ll take notice of Hockey and Robb if they say the Nauru solution is too expensive for no public benefit outcome. Therefore, they will support the Govt’s cheaper and more humanitarian Malaysian Solution.

  25. Tricot:

    Did you see Abbott’s doorstop from earlier today? He had this to say about Kafer:

    [TONY ABBOTT:

    I think there should be an apology to Commandant Kafer. It should be immediate. It should be unreserved. It should be unqualified. It should be made by Minister Smith now and if Minister Smith lacks the decency and the humility to do it then the Prime Minister should do it. ]

    Very strong words there.
    http://tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8623/Joint-Doorstop-Interview-Melbourne.aspx

  28. [MY SAY MY SAY MY SAY

    Sorry to shout but I saw something today which may interest you. The new I-Pad has a voice recognition thingo so you can dictate the words rather than type them. If your fingers are not as nimble as they used to be it sounds a boon. 🙂 ]

    My iPad2 has that — it’s called ‘Dictation’, is free, and you can also use it on your iPhone. I got it so I could write with my eyes closed (visualising is good in my line of work!)

    As a voice recog software, it is so much more accurate than any I have tried before, plus (big plus) you don’t have to train it!

  31. [I would like to know how/why Ch10 had access to the “secret report” as rest of news media seem totally devoid of anything to do with this item.]

    Hugh said at the end wtte that some in military felt compelled to defend Smith.

  32. No, use my laptop for PB, and though it is an iBook haven’t loaded Dictation. But it is dead easy to use – records into ‘notes’ then you just send it where ever you want.

  34. [I think there should be an apology to Commandant Kafer. It should be immediate. It should be unreserved. It should be unqualified. It should be made by Minister Smith now and if Minister Smith lacks the decency and the humility to do it then the Prime Minister should do it. ]

    Abbott strident – cracking. A little criticism leaked from the Nationals next.

  35. jenauthor
    [As a voice recog software, it is so much more accurate than any I have tried before, plus (big plus) you don’t have to train it!]
    I had Dragon Dictate nearly a decade ago, yes it required training but YES I was amazed at how accurrate it was. Goodness knows how much more refined it is today !

  36. [Yep – just caught the Ch10 item on Smith which, due to the “leak” vindicates Smith’s position and has made Abbott look stupid (again) not to mention the Blimps who were/are calling for Smith to be moved.]
    Well Mr Shanahan, spin this one!

  38. Mod Lib,

    You wish!

    Me, I believe all the Libs fallacious arguments about AS, the economy and the carbon Price will be exposed in good time.

  39. [YES and YES. Now on more important matters . They claim this is dolphin eating a squid but I says it is nae squid but a genuine Red Herring. Your thoughts sir ?]

    poroti. definitely the red herring. it aint the squib squid

  41. BK

    How about:

    We wuz ambushed. The enemy foiled us with a ruse. They did not provide us with all the information they had when they had it. The bastards shot first and asked questions later. They used an improvised explosive device and we were suckered.

    THEY DID IT TO US BEFORE WE COULD DO IT TO THEM.

    BWAH. NOT FAIR.’

  42. GG:

    You disappoint me GG. I thought you were keeping coy about the Malaysian Rendition policy because you knew it was a disgrace. Now I realise I was wrong- you seriously like the policy eh?

  43. [I had Dragon Dictate nearly a decade ago, yes it required training but YES I was amazed at how accurrate it was. Goodness knows how much more refined it is today !]

    Nuance bought out Dragon and made ‘Dictation’ – you can buy a professional version which I assume will dictate straight into all compatible applications

  45. CTar1

    I do hope the techies had the great good sense to under-promise and over-deliver. That solar storm is going to be handy. The completion report and contract deviations should be accompanied by some screaming full-colour shots of that solar flare.

  47. [I’ll take notice of Hockey and Robb if they say the Nauru solution is too expensive for no public benefit outcome. Therefore, they will support the Govt’s cheaper and more humanitarian Malaysian Solution.]

    But the caterers said it’s real cheap.

  50. Malaysian “Humanitarian “solution…
    ____________________
    Surely to describe anything to do with Malaysian justice as humanitarian.as GG does…. displays either a sly sense of ironic humour or a slavish addiction to “the party line” worthy of Breznev or Stalin himself,,, If Gillard says it Ok it’s OK I quess !

    If you want to know about Malaysian justice asks the MPs in the opposition…like Anwar!! framed ,jailed and tortured for his political views .in full public view
    What price some asylum seeker in “detention:” for life
    I like to travel in Malaysian and have done so on a number of occasions but I never have doubted the brutal nature of police rule there ….
    What Gillard says about it can be taken with a grain of salt..

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