Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. also on abc PM , passing mention was made how john had changed his surname

    days of our live and the young and the restless couldnt have dreamed this stuff up

  2. Showson,

    I have decided to accept your offer to be my first acolyte. Flattery will get you most everywhere.

  3. Gusface,
    I have decided that Gina starring in The Mould and The Dutiful is the soapie of the decade and must not be missed. I have ordered buckets of caramel popcorn.

  4. Fulvio:

    I haven’t seen anything about JBishop intervention in the Rinehart case.

    Was talking about her acceptance of a gift from Gina.

  5. What can you say about a poll where both the majors shed primary votes? Probably that both the majors are struggling to connect with the voters. Both leaders are struggling to connect with the voters.

    I don’t think either side of politics can take much joy from this poll. I think we remain in limbo with no clear direction about where things will go longer-term.

  6. He changed his name a few years ago now.

    There was something in the WA press at the time about it. Something to do with a falling out with his mother, but I can’t remember exactly.

    The Hancock circus at that time was more about the lovely Rose, her daughter ms Lacson and her relationship with John Kizon, and a family lawyer who did something about opening a locked cabinet without a key and removing a will at someone’s request.

  7. Pretty much status quo – both Gillard and Abbott are unpopular, Abbott’s unpopularity is preventing the Coalition from being further in front.
    Labor’s best hope of narrowing the gap to 51-49 by the end of the year is a positive reaction to the carbon tax, in terms of compensation to households/increases to pensions & family payments etc

  8. @DavidWH/1555,

    The primary voting seems to be level atm which means public couldn’t give a toss atm.

    Though it’s abit odd that Gillard is up and Abbott is down, while primary is unchanged.

  9. Zoidlord Abbott losing support doesn’t surprise me. However Labor losing 4 points and the Coalition losing 2 points indicates people aren’t connecting to either side at present.

    Be interesting to see the Greens primary. They must have got a big share of that 6 points for the 2PP to have remained the same.

  10. Henry:

    It was demolished.

    I believe one of the scandals was the marble columns at the front of the house weren’t actually marble, but some kind of cheap and nasty fake something or other.

  11. Prix D’Amour summed up Perth beautifully.
    Glitzy, showy, glamorous but not quite real.
    Apropos of nothing Johnny Kizon went to school with my brother and subsequently provided protection for his pharmacy…

  12. [gusface
    Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink
    GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Greens Primary: 12 (+1) #auspol


    something is not adding up]

    Must have been close to 54-46 then…

  13. [What can you say about a poll where both the majors shed primary votes? Probably that both the majors are struggling to connect with the voters. Both leaders are struggling to connect with the voters.]

    It needs to be explained why Abbott/the Liberals are not “connecting” with voters. When it comes to the media, which form the most direct and influential conduit of connection between a party and the public, the landscape leans almost perpendicularly in Liberals advantage. There are every News Limited paper in the land, increasingly under Rinehart the Fairfax stable, every single talkback radio station and presenter, plus the ABC most of the time, enthusiastically endeavouring to make the “connection” for the Liberals, so why isn’t the party connecting?

    Labor faces the diametric opposite situation. There is no pro-Labor mainstream outlet, and plenty that are hostile, including the most influential media organisation in the coutnry, News Limited. If Labor has trouble “connecting with voters” chances are better than high, that’s the explanation.

    But what’s the Liberals’ excuse?

  14. Who knows but if 5 points went to others then the 2PP should have moved a point or two unless it was close to 52/48 last time. Damn statistics.

  15. Cuppa at least the Coalition primary vote is in the 40’s but it seems the swingers and disallusined Labor voters are struggling.

  16. DavidWH:

    William can correct me if I am wrong (please!) but I think it goes like this:

    ALP 31 = 31
    Greens 12 = 80% to ALP (+ 9.6)
    Others 14 = 40% to ALP (+5.6)

    Gives 46.2:53.8

  17. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    #Newspoll The ‘Others’ primary vote is 14. It was last that high in Sept 2006. #auspol]

    …but it was 13 just a few polls ago in Jan.

  18. [gusface
    Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    what is it then?]

    Its 14% for Oaky, Windsor, Katter, and all the other non-major party options out there.

  19. Gus:

    Newspoll excludes the “uncommitted” (which was 6% in Feb) and “refused” (which was 2%) and then presents the percentages on the remainder.

    Its a reasonable approach as there is no way of predicting why people refused/can’t decide, and is part of the reason why polls can never be 100% accurate.

  20. [which u then allocated to the two majors

    so hence dey iz undecided]

    I think the millions of Australians voting for them may beg to differ. They have decided to vote for someone other than the majors, they are not undecideds!

  21. [ Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, March 12, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    ‘Fess, you’re rigHt, it was the Shultz’s. I read Alby’s missus was also part of that approach.

    But apart from the freeby, what did the Bishop woman actually do in respect of the family dispute? I’ve not seen or heard anything.]

    Apparently nothing yet Fulvio. But she’ll no doubt in due course offer the Rinehart Plaintiffs a well-padded shoulder to cry-on.

    I find the whole saga fascinating: The allegation that Gina as trustee unilaterally and without the prior permission of the beneficiaries purported to extent the vesting date of the trust fby some 30 or 35 years; The allegation that Gina, while trustee, was lending trust moneys to herself (love to learn the terms of those loans); Gina’s allegation that had the trust vested as Lang had provided in the deed, the beneficiaries would somehow be liable for some monster capital gains tax; The allegation that one of the Plaintiffs was offered a separate settlement deal consisting of some sort of quarterly remittance to break with the remaining two and withdraw from the claim.

    It all sounds highly suss to me.

    I can’t wait to see how this all plays-out publicly in an equity court. Should be real fun and games.

    No wonder Gina wanted that suppression order.

  22. So Newspoll confirms the other polls of showing no voter backlash against the Labor leadership stuff. That’s the real story of this poll.

    As I said before, the Rudd era is in the rear-view mirror.

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