The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
[Schtang
@Schtang
most workers donate to charity, probably a larger % of their income than Twiggy or Palmer , but we also pay our taxes #fairgo #auspol #npc]
Pegasus – WTF???
CTar1
+1
What are you talking about pegasus?
FMC paid tax on 2011 profits but does anyone here realize why 2011 was the first year they earned a taxable income? That criticism of FME was a criticism based on ignorance of how the tax system provides for start-up projects and how deductions for exploration and development are allowed under or tax system. FME didn’t pay no tax because they were rotting the tax system but because the tax system allows certain accumulated costs to be deducted against income before a tax liability is incurred.
Swan knows that but yet encourages the incorrect belief that FME avoids tax to be perpetrated.
How can anyone other than the super wealthy not support a mining tax. Are people so gullible that they think such a tax is unreasonable? Engaging in semantics about the name of the tax is simply to avoid admitting that they are prepared to be screwed over by billionaires rather than support a Labor initiative.
Well, yes as far as it goes. What I was trying to say is that the attitudes on display in that survey are ephemeral. Rudd’s been foremost in people’s minds for a long time, ever since we started hearing whispers about him mounting a challenge. Now it’s over and he’s on the backbench – where there’s no reason for him to attract attention at all, as he did as FM – his spectre will fade.
Responses like the ones we see here are just indicative of a current mood. I was looking to see if there were results that would be indicative of a Rudd reaction. I think there are. And I think they’ll change.
[This little black duck
Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink
David Crowe
David Uren.]
Trust our feathered friend to spot the difference in birds.
Peg,
You Greens are preference collectors. Reality is 80% of Greens vote comes to Labor. For Labor to win, we need to claw votes back from the Libs. So, being nice to the Greens isn’t a strategy that will provide any payback. In fact, it will probably work against the ALP.
In the end, it’s the Greens that need partnerships and alliances to underpin their desperate desire for legitimacy.
I’m not buying!
Speaking of party-centric responses, it’s quite interesting to note that 62% of Lib/Nats think the leader of a party should be the person the voters favour. That’d be Turnbull, wouldn’t it?
Thats right. The libs answer is to rescind the mining tax.
Look after their mates, the rich yet again.
Nothing changes with the libs.
Dave perhaps you can point out where I have said miners aren’t making above normal profits or super profits if you like? I’d be surprised if you can because I am in no doubt they are at present.
The confusion is understanding what are super profits. Any return up to a normal return is not super profit regardless of what the headline $ figure is.
Even Bolt thinks taking out full page ads to argue you don’t have influence is a bad idea:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/er_own_goal_twiggy/
CTar1 (& Victoria),
Judging by your reaction I seem to have misunderstood the intent of your words.
Please cut me some slack as I reacted in the manner of someone who for the past three years and more on PB has been routinely ridiculed and denigrated.
After all, in the real world, I am only human 🙂
Tom I think you misunderstand what I am saying. I am in favour of a tax on mining profits on above normal returns at rates higher than the current policy applies.
davidwh@2699, previous thread:
David, I don’t know about Swan, but I object to people with obscene wealth running advertising campaigns using their millions in an attempt to stop the government from changing the laws to benefit the vast majority of Australians.
David
So get behind the policy
[CTar1 – Pegasus – WTF???
+1 – What are you talking about pegasus?]
He he he, what it took you guys so long to work out about Horsey.
Don 65 except when the government is running a campaign based on misinformation then they are within their rights to respond. Neither side holds the high moral ground the way this issue has been played since May 2010.
DWH@68:
Which misinformation is that?
I am simply saying the miners are already making super profits based on price comparisons and the huge increase in shipped tonnage.
Play all the word games you want, it just reminds me and others what the libs are like.
Its our dirt. If they don’t want to pay the tax, they can surrender the leases.
Tom 66 I am happy to get behind a fair and efficient policy I just haven’t seen one put up.
Who are the 7% of ALP voters who think an election should be held now??
GG
[For Labor to win, we need to claw votes back from the Libs.]
Yes, u do.
[So, being nice to the Greens isn’t a strategy that will provide any payback. In fact, it will probably work against the ALP.]
The fight is not about Labor or the Greens. It’s not about tribes. It’s about whether you want our society to become more equitable, fairer, more just, compassionate, caring and inclusive.
[In the end, it’s the Greens that need partnerships and alliances to underpin their desperate desire for legitimacy.]
Keep sticking your head in the sand. If there r enough of u who feel the same, then it’s to the detriment of our society and the advancement of progressive change.
[I’m not buying!]
How unsurprising. Old guard attitudes like yours is the very reason why I joined the Greens Party.
Good luck with your recruitment campaign 😉
Excellent work by Swan in being proactive and getting on the front foot with this #fairgo agenda.
It WILL resonate.
[No, ur burying your head in the sand.
Unpalatable ‘truths’ (it’s all relative) must be faced and countered.]
Not at all. Just not dwelling on the unnecessary at this stage.
It’s amazing that anybody would defend the Miners for the tax on the extra-ordinary profits they are making ATM and the way the Miners are going about in defending their extra-ordinary profits.
[dave
Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink
DavidWH
Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink
Or if you are going to call something super profits then ensure what you are proposing remotely looks like super profits. Swan seemed to confuse returns above the risk less rate as super profits which made him look foolish from day 1.
A very silly comment.
The Iron Ore miners were doing very well with prices at about $30 on tonne. Its now still around $140 on tonne and the tonnages shipped have increased enormously and will increase even further in coming years.
They are clearly making super profits from our national non renewable resources.
Look at the chart –
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=120 ]
I’d agree, dave. The way it was sold meant it was due to fail, but the aim was right.
It put me in mind of nearly a century back when Broken Hill was so unstable. Eventually a deal was reached on the Lead Bonus. That is, when the world demand price went above a certain level, the difference between that and the ‘normal’ price for lead (up until then a windfall, unearned profit) was shared equally between the workforce and owners. It led to industrial harmony in Broken Hill and resouces to make it a more livable place.
This one is more on a national basis, but the same principle should apply.
Anyway,
Time to move on. Enjoy your afternoon 🙂
Gorgeous Dunny – thats a very good comparison.
Don there were the claims by the government about how much tax miners were paying that we’re shown to be misleading. Claims about what returns were super profit which were misleading. Claims about how much revenue the RSPT would raise which were misleading.
[Time to move on. Enjoy your afternoon]
As usual. when the heat is on. Horsey cut & run. Not the first time.
[Tom 66 I am happy to get behind a fair and efficient policy I just haven’t seen one put up.]
Yeah, sure, so until someone comes up with what your think is a perfect policy you’ll support a party that sits at the feet of the minining billionaires and promising to do nothing at all.
You must think we all came down in the last shower.
DavidWH
Mining tax – ‘super’ or whatever they should be taxed within an inch of their life. It is a one use resource. If we tax them too much now some one else can have a go later.
Once it is dug up and sold it’s ‘game over’.
Not the same as farmers deciding to plant wheat or canola, at all.
It is difficult to interpret the Essential figures, but here goes:
(1) Mr Abbott’s figures would be worrisome for Ms Credlin and Mr Loughnane. The two things tnstaafl to be saving Mr Abbott at the moment appear to be Ms Gillard and the 2PP figures. Bottom line – people are not liking Mr Abbott the more they know him.
(2) Mr Rudd’s populist bubble has been pricked. It looks as if a significant number of people bought the insider stuff that they heard. As well, forcing a spill made him look like a player – a losing player to boot.
(3) Despite the negatives elsewhere, voters at a loose end are not even parking themselves with the Greens. Their vote appears to be trading within a band.
(4) Labor has yet to break the polling trend shackles and put itself decisively in a position from which it might be competitive in an election.
[Who are the 7% of ALP voters who think an election should be held now??]
I guess that is a retorical question. These are people who don’t intend to vote Labor (probably never have) who want to distort the poll results. Stands out like dog cannackers.
[Focus on the real enemy.
Build alliances.]
enter steeplechases
participate in gymkhana’s
DWH
[Don 65 except when the government is running a campaign based on misinformation then they are within their rights to respond. Neither side holds the high moral ground the way this issue has been played since May 2010.]
The point is that the operation of the tax system has provided them with a tax shelter in the early stages, as it is designed to. For them to come out and bitterly complain the tax system is ripping them off when it is in fact not doing so is pretty hypocritical and makes them a fair target for political attack. Mining is hugely advantaged in the tax system (as is agriculture). In a “normal” business you can only write off your capital investments over time.
The people with more cause to complain are those running medium sized manufacturing, trading and service businesses. They are too large to get the “micro-business” concessions and not in the right industry to get the mining or agricultural concessions.
Gussie, i think i prefer Sheeppen now. it aint got no hoof.
I see that Crikey continues to associate itself with a mss murderer of women and children in concentration camps.
Would Crikey allow advertisers to use pictures of, for example, Pol Pot, Stalin or Hitler in its advertising?
Or is it one in, all in?
CTar what we ended up with is a flawed compromised policy but at least it’s better than no policy.
Finns
It has been pissing down all day. We’re flying back to see whether the rain in Oz is any better than the rain in Singapore.
finns
re the truce
that horse has bolted
b
geez u get uppity
kitchener is a british icon
In the coming 2013 election campaign, Labor will be delighted to widely compare its policy on the mining super tax to the silly position abbott has painted the libs into – to hand this money back to the miners rather than increasing super for Australians.
Bring it on in 2013.
ajm agree entirely however my argument is that the government brought this on themselves by how they tried to impose the RSPT. Much of the angst with miners directly resulted from this.
[Tom 66 I am happy to get behind a fair and efficient policy I just haven’t seen one put up.]
So you support Tony Abbotts zero mining tax approach then
[I see that Crikey continues to associate itself with a mss murderer of women and children in concentration camps.]
Maybe my cookies are hiding this from me.
What ad do you mean?
“Yet another Labor lie”. Abbott today in Bendigo.
Peta Credlin seems to have inculcated this phrase into his every reptilian utterance.
Pegasus,
As always, you go all Kumbayah when the heat is applied. No analysis of the reality about the preference flow.
There has actually been a drift of support from the Greens in recent months. This occurs becuse the Carbon Pricing Legislation is now through, people are currently focussed on bread and butter issues (No one takes the Greens seriously on economics), and the nature of politics seems to be more major party orientated atm.
Of course the Greens have sucession issues with Brown, the arrival of extremists lke Rhiannon and the appalling performance of the up and comers like SHY on issues like Immigration Reform.
So thanks for the gratuitous advice. But, from my perspective the Greens have far more existential isues to address in the coming couple of years. Of course, if the Greens want to grow up and actually have an influence on what happens, then they can always join the ALP. Otherwise, a demise not unsimilar to the Greens and the DLP is well and truly on the cards.
DavidWH – Twiggey can go off to SA as far as I’m concerned. Screw ’em to the wall.
The companies that are run in a manner that judges costs and profits got a result that they found acceptable.
Those that are a little more ‘personally’ involved whinge and complain.
Not a satisfactory result, I think.