Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Alberici usually does very good interviews, and is worth watching. I caught the end of it, but not the whole interview, and I’d like to see it in its entirety.

  2. Aristotle:
    What’s the interest in the Pyne interview? Did anyone see it last night?

    Yep. Alberici repeatedly put Pyne back in his box, asking for facts & directly questioning his statements, as he got louder and louder, and less and less truthful. Reminded me of a good Kerry O’Brien interview with a dissembling, shifty, out of their depth, politician.

  3. Rod Hagen 1851 Precisely put. I emailed the ABC congratulating them on Emma Alberici’s interview – it was indeed a flashback to the days when ABC journalists practiced journalism, not gossip and gotcha.

  4. fess, BB

    From the ront page select All Programs. Then ABC24. On the left hand side click Lateline, then the date (2 March) and take it from there.

    Takes a bit of getting used to, but once you have it, it’s pretty easy.

  5. Aristotle,
    [Can’t understand any criticism of Julia Gillard re demotion of Robert McClelland.

    He said the party can’t win with her as leader, what was she supposed to do?

    If she kept him, she’d be called weak; so she demotes him and it’s called retribution.

    Does anyone seriously believe she could have kept someone in her cabinet who publicly made such a declaration?]

    Agree. Out in voterland that would probably also largely be the perception imo. Most people can relate to this scenario in their own lives and work experiences.

    After the event McClelland’s position was untenable and he knew that there would be consequences for his public stance.

  6. I’m watching in iview now Rod.

    Good interview.

    Always delighted to hear the sophistic fallacy “everybody knows”.

  7. [I for one am very suspicious of the direct quotes he attributes to Paul Howes. Was he there? If not why the quotation marks? I only read the first four paragraphs then gave up. It reads like the usual clap trap.]

    Howes tweeted that it wasn’t true when Latika Bourke asked him

  8. Just catching up.

    [DavidWH
    Posted Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 11:11 am | Permalink
    Copenhagen turned the carbon debate on its head. It was a total debacle.]

    Rudd was correct when he said it had been ratfu*ked bythe Chinese. They sent along some mid-level flunky who proceeded to do an Abbott (no, no, no) in the negotiations, ably assisted by India.

    At least the Chinese apologised for the “misunderstanding” afterwards and seem to have taken a more active role since.

    Still, it was an opportunity lost.

  9. Folk in Singapore are puzzled about Australia. They can’t understand how such a relentlessly bad government gets such consistently good results.

  10. Rod – I know the P.M didn’t say that Carr had been ruled out but based on how she was dismissive of reports of him being offered the FM role did leave me with the impression that he wasn’t in the running.

    This potential confusion occurred when the PM said very clearly in and outside the parliament that the whole story that had appeared in the Australian newspaper was incorrect.

    In fairness to the PM, recruitment should be handled confidentially

  11. I noticed some massive fact-massaging on NewsRadio while I was in the car earlier.

    Apparently, Carr’s appointment to FM was widely speculated on all this week and confirmed yesterday. Funny that, I could have sworn it had been completely written off by Wednesday morning. I must have misread everything.

  12. ShowsOn
    [Leaving Bowen in immigration is simply punishment. He never wanted the portfolio in the first place, and has offered Gillard his resignation twice.]
    Yep. He is in employment ‘hell’.

    [She has basically said to him that if he wants to stay in cabinet, that’s the only ministry on offer.]
    Would suspect that is the case. It is also in Gillard’s self interest to avoid alienating another poor sod with that poisoned chalice.

  13. [1853 Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink
    Rod Hagen 1851 Precisely put. I emailed the ABC congratulating them on Emma Alberici’s interview – it was indeed a flashback to the days when ABC journalists practiced journalism, not gossip and gotcha.]

    Eric Campbell on the the ‘Drum’ the night before last was excoriating of the Murdochracy, I was surprised he was given a free rein to bag the bastards, which he did rather eloquently with passion in sh!tloads.
    Vote 1, Eric Campbell. A journalist with balls.

  14. [DG:

    I find it difficult to navigate iView. The best I could turn up was a Lateline from 24th Feb.]

    If you go to the priogram web sites, then Lateline, then the date (yesterdsay) you can find it. About half ways through, give or take a few minutes.

  15. [If you go to the priogram web sites, then Lateline, then the date (yesterdsay) you can find it. About half ways through, give or take a few minutes.]

    That’s IVIEW program sites, not the program web sites per se..

  16. mb,

    The media doesn’t seem to understand the concept of not making a final decison until one has considered all the relevant information.

  17. [Pegasus
    Posted Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink
    forrest,

    Yes, I saw that episode of the Drum. It was wonderful to behold!
    ]

    Damn straight!, should be more of it.

  18. [A critical thing in surgery is the decision to operate. You can be the best technical surgeon in the world but if you operate too early or too late, you aren’t much of a surgeon.

    To avoid operating too early, we review the patient frequently, watch their observations and get more test results.]

    Geez Diogs, and here was me thinking you were an adherent of the Sir Lancelot Spratt “when in doubt, rip it out” school of surgery.

    BTW, ever read the House of God by Samuel Shem? (AKA How to Make a Go of It in The Medical Profession).

  19. This potential confusion occurred when the PM said very clearly in and outside the parliament that the whole story that had appeared in the Australian newspaper was incorrect.

    It is pretty hard to find any part of the Australian’s story that WAS correct, though MB. They managed to get the date of the alleged discussions wrong. Both Gillard and Carr are adamant that, contrary to the story, no offer of FM position was made during them and no evidence (as opposed to innuendo) to the contrary has been presented. Etc etc. Given this , what part of the story can be claimed to “correct” in contradiction of the PM’s statement?

  20. Confessions:
    She’s a great interviewer. I wish we could switch her and Uhlmann around!

    Certainly love to see Alberici take over from Uhlmann on 7.30. Not sure about the reverse, though. Be more inclined to make him a roving correspondent covering the Birdsville races or some such. 😉

  21. I notice Lateline started with the “shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic” reference. It always reminds me of an Alan Partridge quote:

    Titanic! Titanic! What everyone forgets is that there were 2000 miles of very pleasant sailing before it hit the iceberg.

    Which makes me wonder exactly which party has had 2000 miles of very pleasant sailing, and what it’s like when you hit an iceberg.

  22. [Err, “bumbling ways”? He was demoted for supporting Rudd, pure and simple.]
    He was the only one. So that suggests it was more than just that reason.

  23. mexicanbeemer
    [Now if I can get confused then only god knows what the average voter thinks.]
    Regardless of who said what when that would be one of the likely reactions of the ‘ordinary punter’ in the street if they bothered to take any notice of the Carr affair.

    The impression generated by the MSM fed into the meme of “loose talking” politicians and ambiguous spin.

  24. Diogenes
    [Bob Carr had to be cleared by ASIO before being offered FA. That takes time.]
    Let’s hope it doesn’t take as long as vetting some asylum seekers 😉

  25. Prissy is unintentionally hilarious. Get rid of a PM he claims we cannot trust and replace her via an election with…..someone we can trust? I would have loved to see Emma engage with Pine on the “trusty/thruthy Abbott”, whose main skill is asking his COS which way the wind is blowing from minute to minute.

  26. [1881 This little black duck

    Was Christopher Pyne born annoying?]

    I think they slapped him and he hasn’t stop crying since.
    The slap came from the left hand side I reckon.
    Also, a working class person stole his toys.

  27. [Eric Campbell on the the ‘Drum’ the night before last was excoriating of the Murdochracy, I was surprised he was given a free rein to bag the bastards, which he did rather eloquently with passion in sh!tloads.
    Vote 1, Eric Campbell. A journalist with balls.]

    Wonderful spray. Right at the start of the show. Excellent.

    I find it amazing that people like our patron and moderator here, WB, even bother to argue that News Ltd is not an organization that regularly breaches even the low standards of journalistic ethics today, that they aren’t arrogant, vindictive and quite possibly employing corrupt practices to get what they want.

    You’d think, as Eric Campbell argues, that the birthplace of such an organization, and the supplier of many of its top executives, would be the first place you’d look for how it all started.

  28. [I notice Lateline started with the “shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic” reference. It always reminds me of an Alan Partridge quote:]

    I always liked the Stephen Colbert version of that:

    [“Everybody asks for personnel changes. So the White House has personnel changes. Then you write, “Oh, they’re just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.” First of all, that is a terrible metaphor. This administration is not sinking. This administration is soaring. If anything, they are rearranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!”]

  29. Maybe it’s time for Mr Abbott to send out his resume to Rupert and ask if any jobs are available on TV for a weatherman? He does have experience as a journo, after all, so he seems perfectly qualified and there’s no danger he’d offend Rupert by mentioning global warming.

  30. [Maybe it’s time for Mr Abbott to send out his resume to Rupert and ask if any jobs are available on TV for a weatherman? He does have experience as a journo, after all, so he seems perfectly qualified and there’s no danger he’d offend Rupert by mentioning global warming.]

    Of course, the Weather Channel, where the girls’ shirts are one size too small and the boys’ shirts are even tighter.

  31. [I notice Lateline started with the “shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic” reference. ]

    Was that Iggleton who used that metaphor?

  32. [ Which makes me wonder exactly which party has had 2000 miles of very pleasant sailing, and what it’s like when you hit an iceberg.]

    If the Titanic had hit the iceberg head-on (instead of a side-swipe) it might have stayed afloat…

  33. I think Keneally and Beattie are certainties to run in 2013. Keneally for Dobell?
    Bracks might be better served to continue to push for reform of the ALP behind the scenes.

  34. Thanks Rod for the link to Lateline, enjoyable interview, several interesting points.

    The Australian was incorrect for it was people in general that approached Carr, this is nothing unusual and happens every day within the corporate sector.

    5 Million dollars is now classed as big business, okay clearly there is a lack of small business expertise within the federal Liberal Party, anther reason to install Malcolm Turnbull as leader.

  35. Anyone who has had anything to do with the Native Title Act must have groaned deeply when McClelland claimed his work on it was one of his “greatest achievements’. The NT legislation is a massively confused, poorly drafted, pastiche that has done a lot of harm to Indigenous people’s interests. It has also produced a series of highly contradictory decisions in the courts. When Federal & High Court judges have trouble providing consistent judgements its a good sign that the legislation is a dog’s breakfast.

    For mine, Labor’s reluctance to undo the damage done by the Howard “ten point plan” amendments, coupled with probs they’ve added themselves, is one of the major un-noticed failures of both the Rudd & Gillard Governments. Yes. They’ve had lots more on their mind, but this is one piece of legislation that really needs taking back to the drawing board.

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