Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,080 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  5. Mod Lib Re#67

    Correction: we would be into the 5th year of a Costello government if he had stepped aside…..

    Absolute crap, if There was a Coalition Government when the GFC hit, Costello would have implemented policies that would have seen us follow the US and Europe into recession. That would have killed any coalition government stone dead

  8. Yep TP they will be dudded twice…they will very angry…..I see on facebook Rudd has 10k likes on 2012 Rudd and some other fan group has 6k…a lib we hate gillard site has 6k

  10. [How can future leaking be directly pointed at him if there are strategically directed leaks, just like last year.]
    The automatic assumption will be that it was Rudd and he will have to prove that it wasn’t him.

  11. 26% popularity is way higher than quite a few bludgers have.

    Maybe William could start an on-line poll. Then again …

  13. A newly elected PM. Down in the polls. Butt of sexist jokes. Castigated by the MSM. Loathed by many in her party and in the community. Jokes about her accent. Calls for her to stand down. Hugely negative disapproval rating.

    Margaret Thatcher 1982.

    Is tomorrow the Prime Minister of Australia’s Falklands moment?

  14. [281
    ShowsOn

    There is no underlying trend back to Labor. The polls are basically stuck where they were in November.]

    This overlooks an improvement since last winter, when the ALP PV was the lowest indicated since before WW1. Defeat of the Liberals is now possible. Their indicated PV has certainly peaked and is vulnerable.

    The economy will be the issue, and they have no economic policies to speak of, so, providing the economy tracks along its usual growth path, the Government will be able to develop a stronger, winning narrative. In this respect, it will really be helpful to have the leadership tensions in the past.

  16. You realise that, for about 30 minutes tomorrow, we won’t have a PM?

    This could be Tone’s best and only chance to steal the keys.

  18. So a rejuvenated Gillard with a united team is about to ramp up the pressure on the rabble led by Abbott.

    These are dangerous times for :mrgreen: – he has no policies, is very unpopular, has not promoted any new talent into the shadow ministry, and has let down many vested interest groups by failing to stop any of the contested legislation.

    I can’t see Abbott lasting till June.

  21. From Andrew Leigh:

    Over the past few days, I’ve received over 1700 emails about tomorrow’s leadership vote. Some are passionately in favour of one of the candidates. Others are passionately against one of the candidates. But the overwhelming message that I’ve received from these emails is that the Labor leadership matters deeply to many Australians.

  22. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, the history train is moving fast, are you on it or have been left behind at platform clutching the ticket?

  23. [These are dangerous times for :mrgreen: – he has no policies, is very unpopular, has not promoted any new talent into the shadow ministry, and has let down many vested interest groups by failing to stop any of the contested legislation.

    I can’t see Abbott lasting till June.]

    Too early to say what’ll happen, but if Abbott does lose leadership at some point this year, I predict many heads in the press gallery will explode.

  26. I finally found the market for how many votes Rudd will get.

    0-5 251.00
    6-10 101.00
    11-15 51.00
    16-20 13.00
    21-25 9.00
    26-30 3.90
    31-35 2.50
    36-40 4.75
    41+ 4.50

  27. [SO……Well hang on a second, he doesn’t exactly have a perfect ministerial record. It seems his actions on the Skype case were questionable as a report will soon show.]

    You shouldn’t believe disinformation spread by the jealous, SO….

  28. Of course the labor vote has been trending up, remember the dark days of 58-42??
    Whilst this poll on the 2PP may be slightly on the edge of outlier status, it adds to the mix, the poll of polls as ABC would say and further incrementally increases the Govt creep back up the rankings. Game on!

  29. BH
    [I also agree with BB that if he can be show loyalty to the Party and the PM then he should be used where he can take the fight up to the Oppn without leaking to the media and without trying to hog the media limelight for himself.

    Might be too big a call for KR but worth a try.]
    Nah, Rudd should be appointed to:
    latrine duty on Abbott’s padded cell;
    OR
    made ambassador to Antarctica.

    AND

    all of you fkrs on 29 – piss off.
    I will not have Rudd associated with my favourite number.
    Enough already.

  33. One of the most beneficial things that will come out of this whole affair is the resurgence of Julia Gillard.

    Forget about the tired cynicism of the jaded professional students.

    Forget about the superior sounding, yet jaded psephwhatevertheyarecalled ologists.

    Forget about the political purists who believe that all has a price , but can’t understand value.

    Pay them no heed

    Julia Gillard will lead Labor and will win the 2013 election. She will win because of one simple, irrevocable truth.

    Julia Gillard is stronger ethically, morally, personally and, importantly, mentally than Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnball and any other they put up against her.

    The quiet voting public have seen, started to understand and realised the bullshit that has been going on is only hurting the nation. As corny as it sounds I believe that, before the next election, the public at large will see Julia Gillard as the guardian that states “Not on my watch”.

    You’ll do me Bloodnut. You’ll do me.

  35. [This overlooks an improvement since last winter, when the ALP PV was the lowest indicated since before WW1. Defeat of the Liberals is now possible. Their indicated PV has certainly peaked and is vulnerable.]
    Oh bloody hell. Of course there has been a trend to Labor since then. If an election was held back then, Labor would’ve been lucky to win 25 seats!

    I am talking about the trend back to Labor that started in about October, but then from about mid November it has flatlined.

    Sure Labor is now getting some 53s and 54s, and the occasional 55, so that means the trend is still around 54 as Possum’s “state of play 2012” post shows.

    54 is a total landslide to the Coalition. That is a 4 point something swing to the Coalition which would net them something like 20 seats.

  38. Rossmore

    the analogy of Thatcher with Gillard is an interesting one. Many don’t think a woman can be a tough PM, have the gravitas and statesmanship required for the job – how can a woman be like Menzies or Whitlam. They used to think the same in the UK, until Thatcher – but it took some time.

  39. I think Abbott is safe until about August or where the polls get to somewhere near 50-50%

    He will have run out of ideas and luck by then.

    After that, it might be an enjoyable time while the Liberals go through some house cleaning.

    Mind you, a Turnball revival puts the “acceptable” face on the conservatives just as The Great One is supposed to save Labor.

    I guess, at the end of the day, the country will have to make up its what it wants – substance over style or vice versa.

    The best thing for Labor is that Abbott has neither.

  42. [Absolute crap, if There was a Coalition Government when the GFC hit, Costello would have implemented policies that would have seen us follow the US and Europe into recession. That would have killed any coalition government stone dead]

    Well, there is no way to know, but I suspect he would have done what the ALP did and follow the Treasuries advice. You say we would have gone into recession, just like Europe, blah, blah, blah….not with the stirling economy with zero debt (in fact billions in savings) he left us.

    The difference is that the Liberal party would not have spent so much money. In retrospect, that would have been the wiser course.

  45. Ian

    [Julia Gillard is stronger ethically, morally, personally and, importantly, mentally than Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnball and any other they put up against her.]

    Not sure how that logic explains 11 years of John Howard.

  46. [QT tomorrow could be QI. Tone just might go for a MoNC.]
    I’ve got a feeling tomorrow’s QT will be one question from Abbott to Gillard.

    He will then ask a supplementary question, then Abbott will immediately move a censure motion.

  48. Am I right that the only person who has declared their position for Monday this weekend has been Albo?

    Everyone else declared on Wed-Friday?

    Wassup wid dat?

  49. Good news re: Andrew Leigh.
    I like the boy, future treasurer in the making. I read somewhere that Obama of all people cited his work recently.

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