Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,080 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 8 of 22
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  2. gus

    [the argys did take out few destroyers and the cargo ship with the copters]

    Yeah, but what would be the chance of that if we invaded NZ. It’s just begging for us to annexe it.

  4. Henry

    Andrew Leigh is probably the best qualified economist, and one of the best intellects in the Federal ALP. He is making his mark as a thought leader, and it would not suprise if he makes ParlSec or junior minister in this, his first term.

    He is non aligned, and of course is supporting JG.

  6. My son is pretty upset by it all he rang me this afternoon , the missing kid has a medical issue which could have something to do with his disappearance. He did go in the water and hasn’t been seen since. Son has a very close and tight knit group of mates who all went to school together.

  10. Couple of things, Shows On.

    Firstly Poss’s “flat lining” chart is essentially for the December / January holiday period, when people aren’t that involved and the polls are fewer & further between.

    Secondly, they don’t include the current polls.

    Thirdly, if you include the current polls & also take August, Sept, October or even early November as a starting point , you see the trend continues to be in the Govt’s favour.

  15. You won’t read about this in Oz MSM.

    [Dramatic new evidence to the Leveson inquiry this week is expected to unleash a “bloodbath” of bitter recriminations between police and prosecution officials arguing over failings in a series of investigations into allegations of phone hacking, computer hacking and bribery by journalists.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/exclusive-was-sun-on-sunday-brought-forward-to-beat-revelations-7441050.html

  16. [I claim intellectual copywright on the Thatcher – Rt. Hon J Gillard analogy.]

    Rossmore, you will hear from Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc Patent Attorney, often with a horsey head.

  17. [336
    ShowsOn

    Oh bloody hell. Of course there has been a trend to Labor since then. If an election was held back then, Labor would’ve been lucky to win 25 seats!

    I am talking about the trend back to Labor that started in about October, but then from about mid November it has flatlined.]

    Think of it as a period of consolidation, SO. Abbott-fatigue is starting to set in. The economy is now about the only thing that matters, imo. If employment growth returns to SE Australia, interest rates remain low, inflation is muted and the budget is brought to surplus as promised – all being important and positive things in themselves – then the Government will be able to attract support away from the Liberals.

  18. [Thirdly, if you include the current polls & also take August, Sept, October or even early November as a starting point , you see the trend continues to be in the Govt’s favour.]
    When is the last time Newspoll, Galaxy, or Nielsen had Labor on 50 or 51?

  20. I have a copyright issue with Sophie.

    I post a bit about Scylla, Charybdis and Ulysses and two days later she tweets about the three of them!

    Who does she think she is, Julie Bishop?!

  21. I dont know how others feel, but Albanese’s statement that deposing Rudd wasnt right, and wasnt good, and should be reversed on principle (even if it isn’t in practice) has actually made me feel less bitter about it all.

    Whatever happens tomorrow, I hope thats a wider feeling on the left of centre.

  22. rossmore

    the gillard analogy has been used to align with

    boudiccea

    st joan

    liz 1

    both pankhursts

    liz2

    maggie

    whatsherface from LOTR

    and even the ukrainian lass

    Interestingly one of my fib mates, compares her to golda

    he dont like her per se, but is V aware of her abilty

    thats JG’s secret

  25. [Rod Hagen
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 10:54 pm | Permalink
    Couple of things, Shows On.

    Firstly Poss’s “flat lining” chart is essentially for the December / January holiday period, when people aren’t that involved and the polls are fewer & further between.

    Secondly, they don’t include the current polls.

    Thirdly, if you include the current polls & also take August, Sept, October or even early November as a starting point , you see the trend continues to be in the Govt’s favour.]

    It extends into Feb (although not this weeks series of polls of course)
    The current polls are 55 (Essential), 54 (Galaxy) and 53 (ACN and Newspoll) so the flatline of 54 is not likely to change much
    Finally, the most obvious explanation for poor Gillard polling in conjunction with good ALP polling is that a large cohort of pollees think Rudd is coming back. Once that washes through I suspect we have a reaction to the turmoil and any semblance of trend back will be well and truly gone…

  26. [ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Thirdly, if you include the current polls & also take August, Sept, October or even early November as a starting point , you see the trend continues to be in the Govt’s favour.

    When is the last time Newspoll, Galaxy, or Nielsen had Labor on 50 or 51?]

    March 2012, you heard it from me first.

  28. Gus: I prefer the Reddy analogy. Do you think Finns will put it to music?

    I am Gillard, hear me roar
    Poll numbers too small to ignore
    And we know too much to go back to Kevin
    ’cause we’ve heard it all before
    Primary votes down there on the floor
    No one’s ever gonna bring him back again

    CHORUS
    Oh yes I will lie
    It’s wise if you’ve lots to gain
    Yes, I’ve paid the price
    Cos now I’m stuck with Wayne
    If Ive got to go NOT TO KEVIN
    I am wrong (wrong)
    I am so beatable (beatable)
    I am woe….ful

    You can bend but never break me
    ’cause it only serves to make me
    More determined to reject my prior views
    And I come back even stronger
    Not a commie any longer
    Now I’ve sold out to rendition in Malaysia

    CHORUS

    I am woman watch me grow
    See me standing toe to toe
    As I spread my lovin’ arms across the land
    But I’m still for education
    Well, till focus groups say let it go
    That’s my mojo, you understand?

    Oh yes I will lie
    It’s wise if you’ve lots to gain
    Yes, I’ve paid the price
    Cos now I’m stuck with Wayne
    If Ive got to go NOT TO KEVIN
    I am wrong (wrong)
    I am so beatable (beatable)
    I am woeful
    Oh, I am woman
    I am risible
    I am wrong

    FADE
    I am woman
    I am risible
    I am wrong
    I am Gillard

  30. [Rod,

    Don’t waste your breath.

    Shows On is a cretin of no particular brains. Now that he’s lost comprehensively he’ll descend into complete vitriol.]
    He isn’t speaking! He is typing at a computer you moron! These are the idiotic things that you write that make people think you have no idea what you are doing.

    You’re the one that walked away from your trend claim and just repeated the standard GIllardista gambit that the polls will improve before the election without explaining how or why.

  31. [373
    lefty e

    I dont know how others feel, but Albanese’s statement that deposing Rudd wasnt right, and wasnt good, and should be reversed on principle (even if it isn’t in practice) has actually made me feel less bitter about it all.]

    Albo is a champ….He is a real energy source for the Government and, I’m sure you’re right, his statements will have a healing effect.

  32. Rod,

    Have a look at Catsaras analysis this morning. He also articulated that Government’s can win elections with 49% of the vote. Every time a Party has won with 49% it has been the Governing Party (He said it was either 7 or 12 times).

  33. Thanks for that link TLBD.
    What an impressive fellow is Leigh.
    Just hope he doesnt get chewed up, spat out and disillusioned by party politics.
    We need his sort of thoughtful policy nous in the body politic.

  35. 53-47 seems to be the common number now… which isn’t bad at all for this point in the cycle… “the ALP is doomed” line seems more than a tad overdone to me.

    I remember the Lib vote going up after a few weeks of in-fighting between Howard and Costello when their written agreement was pulled out of someone’s wallet.

    Perhaps leadership fights aren’t as bad as the common wisdom suggests? It’s not like the ALP is divided on policy anyway.

  36. gus

    Same with me.

    That’s the problem with betting odds. You don’t know if they represent smart money or dumb money. They are just money.

    And when is bloody Newspoll going to put out the Rudd data!!!

  37. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 11:04 pm | Permalink
    Rod,

    Have a look at Catsaras analysis this morning. He also articulated that Government’s can win elections with 49% of the vote. Every time a Party has won with 49% it has been the Governing Party (He said it was either 7 or 12 times).]

    Yes, but in this case that would mean a >1% swing AWAY from the government from the current state of seats (72 for ALP) which is not going to get you to 76 in any way shape or form.

  38. [March 2012, you heard it from me first.]
    Cute.

    For all intents and purposes Labor’s vote, going by a trend, is still stuck at 54.

    Yes I take into account the 53s of the last week, however, I think these polls are a bit special case because of the events of the last week.

    So let’s wait another fortnight and see what happens. If Gillard is re-elected tomorrow, I suspect that 55s will be more likely than 53s because there will be a bunch of people pissed that Rudd wasn’t made leader.

  39. WB

    [Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]

    Dio

    [Meh. Let’s see what it is in a few months.]

    Best way to look at it Dio

  41. And Showson…………….

    Many of us for months have acknowledged the 5% pv that has gone missing for Labor – and a vital 5% it is.

    However, if there some validity in the claim that the current 3% jump to Labor is due to the Rudd factor, it means the AWOL 5% is not very firmly in the hands of the conservatives – a point many have made.

    If this is the case, it has just come back so willingly to the Labor brand.

    Not putting too much store in the actual 47% but it is the trend my friend – the trend.

    It is bumpy but it seems to be moving in the one direction – upwards and for Labor not stuck as you claim.

    All the polls have been moving in the same direction for weeks – and not to the conservatives whose potential vote has peaked.

    Thank god for Tony Abbott!

    As you are right to point out – an election tomorrow without the benefit of an election campaign, based on a 53-47 split, would mean the lost of many seats by Labor.

    But sport, we know there ain’t going to be an election tomorrow. Just a political party picking an effective leader over a popular one.

    Now, as you are a seeming expert in these matters, the closer Labor steams to 50-50 and maybe beyond this, suddenly a raft of Liberal seats come into play with the skinniest of margins – like 1-2%.

    Time is on Labor’s side.

    The end result for the conservatives is likely to be another 3 years of unproductive opposition. But then they are good at that – I mean unproductive opposition.

  45. [Have a look at Catsaras analysis this morning. He also articulated that Government’s can win elections with 49% of the vote. Every time a Party has won with 49% it has been the Governing Party (He said it was either 7 or 12 times).]
    Oh DEAR MY LORD! What the crap are you going on about! 49% would be a 1.1% swing away from Labor, which in all probability would translate to a loss of a bunch of seats.

    If you seriously think Labor can go from a hung parliament to winning with a swing away from them you are in dreamland.

  46. [380
    ShowsOn

    ……a cretin ….lost comprehensively….complete vitriol.

    ……you moron! …….idiotic …… you have no idea]

    Blogging at its informative, temperate and reasoned best…….!

  47. OK.here is the current PB Kevenge Sweepsyake numbers.

    1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
    187 (unconfirmed) TP
    44 Son of Zoomster
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    42 Scorpio
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    39 Mod Lib
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    33 Andrew , BH , dave , ShowsOn
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    A very brave -13 deflationite
    – 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD

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