Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

UPDATE: The first Newspoll result of the year has just been reported, and I’m sticking it on the top of the existing post because of technical difficulties we’re having. The poll has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, in common with Essential Research and Galaxy (see below), and indeed with last year’s final Newspoll result from December 2-4. However, Newspoll has both parties solidly lower on the primary vote than the other two pollsters, at 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition – which is respectively down one and up one on the December poll. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is also down three points to 33 per cent and her disapproval is down one to 55 per cent. Tony Abbott’s numbers are all but identical to Gillard’s, his approval steady on 32 per cent and disapproval down two to 55 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-36 to 40-37.

The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,262 comments on “Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Gary I think both sides will go to the next election with their current leaders. Not sure how it will end up although of I was going to have a bet now it would be on Labor. Any party needs two terms in opposition to sort their shite out and get some new blood in the team.

  4. http://www.theage.com.au/national/opposition-to-call-for-police-probe-into-gillard-adviser-leak-20120129-1qo42.html

    [Opposition to call for police probe into Gillard adviser leak
    Michelle Grattan and Josh Gordon
    January 30, 2012

    THE opposition will ask the Australian Federal Police today to investigate the role of Julia Gillard’s office and a Canberra union leader in the Australia Day security breach that led to the Prime Minister being spectacularly dragged to safety.]

  5. [ gordongraham: in response to this, the ALP should call an inquiry into the protest against @AlboMP last year. I’m sure it wasn’t just Mirabella involved]

    An inquiry into Their ABC is also in order, IMO, and would provide a useful distraction.

  7. [Gary I think both sides will go to the next election with their current leaders. Not sure how it will end up although of I was going to have a bet now it would be on Labor. Any party needs two terms in opposition to sort their shite out and get some new blood in the team.]
    David I’m with you on this re the leadership. I’m a little unclear about your second sentence though. Won’t the Libs have already had two terms in opposition by the time of the next election?

  8. Howard became leader in January 1995 and mostly led Keating until November, at which point Keating pulled ahead. The results from November until the March 1996 election (Keating first) were 40-37, 40-35, 37-38, 42-34, 39-39, 42-38, 42-38, 42-38, 43-37, 45-40.

  9. david so you are voting labor then

    i am totally convinced I. global warming,.lol
    smile face,
    as this is the hottest summer I can remember in. years for us
    we have had about, dont laugh. 5 days over 30
    this year,sleeping is a real problem,
    but last week I spoke to a qld, who lives here now who said the heat was really getting to her
    some how our 30 plus feel a lot hotter than 30 qld.

  11. Gary I may be wrong but I think Newspoll, Nielsen and Galaxy all had Labor in the 20’s. Morgan may even have had them there at one time. I think Essential bottomed out at 30. Regardless there has been a recovery in Labor’s primary vote of between 5 and 8 points depending on whick polling org you want to refer to.

  12. DavidWH at 101

    I think you’re right. Both sides are pretty much locked in despite all the talk. I also think you’re right re needing 2 terms to renew in opposition. Problem for the Libs is they’ve put off the renewal with Abbott effectively campaigning for a return of the Howard years, including ex Howard Ministers re-introduced to Parliament. Hard to come up with a new image when you do that.

  14. I think what is more telling re Abbott’s polling is his satisfaction rating. He’s down there with Gillard. Has any opposition leader won an election with a satisfaction rating so low?

  15. I also read last year that the stance on gay marriage could cost the pm as well.

    o well at least they are equally now l’smile face.

  16. My say at this time I will vote for my local candidate. I don’t feel warm and fuzzy about either of the leaders.

    Gary the Libs have wasted this second term in my opinion and if anything have gone backwards. No policy substance to speak of.

  18. [Gary I may be wrong but I think Newspoll, Nielsen and Galaxy all had Labor in the 20′s. Morgan may even have had them there at one time. I think Essential bottomed out at 30.]

    Correct on all counts. Labor was below 30 in Morgan phone polls, but not face-to-face. Recent experience suggests phone pollsters exaggerate the Greens a little at the expense of Labor – Essential seems to be getting it right.

  20. My god this is a game of inches…

    Had a feeling you had those numbers somewhere William..

    Now tell us about the net disapproval…!

  24. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-to-seek-afp-report-into-riot/story-fn59niix-1226256747994

    [Tony Abbott to seek Australian Federal Police report into Australia Day riot
    by: Matthew Franklin and Joe Kelly
    From: The Australian
    January 30, 2012 12:00AM

    TONY Abbott will today request a police investigation into the involvement of Julia Gillard’s office in inciting an angry protest by indigenous activists in Canberra last week.

    …………………

    Last night, an AFP spokeswoman said it was not conducting any investigation.

    A spokeswoman said the AFP had been made aware of information relating to an alleged breach of Mr Abbott’s security on Australia Day but an assessment of the claims had not found any evidence of a crime.Therefore no investigation had been launched.]

    Despite the noise and any blundering, an inquiry may not go anywhere if that AFP quote holds up.

  25. I remember once we where 23 behind I think.

    I went to bed crying, true.
    I don’t think William u understand the passion some of us feel for labor, but mostly for our
    country.’
    polls are not a game or a study for us, they are fearfull

  27. [gordongraham: @SpaceKidette among ALP voters it’s split 49/48 in Gillard’s favour. With L/NP voters it’s 53/21 in Rudd’s favour]

    Meaning it is only Rudd who will pick up those lost voters as it is them that are in the big preferred leader advantage over Gillard.

    Too funny! And I guess he is going to be in the paper a lot campaigning in Qld. Though the MSM will be worried he might actually get back in and then win the next election – so I expect to try and undermine him again too, with the help of the same ALP nasties.

    What a conundrum for the nasty rats. Stick with the girl they assassinated Rudd for or admit they made a huge mistake and reinstall Rudd. You can see Gillard looking sideways everywhere she goes now.

    Boy, have they ever turned the ALP into a bucket of rubbish with their behind the scenes empire games .

  32. LSL is just a name my say. Just another poster.

    Stick phat as the modern coaches would say.
    We will overrun them in the 4th quarter.

  33. http://tinyurl.com/6txog8p (click google link)

    [Bank bashers ‘risk economy’, say leaders

    by: ANNABEL HEPWORTH, NATIONAL BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT
    From: The Australian
    January 30, 2012 12:00AM

    Increase Text Size
    Decrease Text Size
    Print

    PROFITABLE and well-funded banks are critical to the health of the Australian economy at a time of global uncertainty, bank leaders warned as they urged politicians to stop bashing the big four financial institutions.

    Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first interest rate decision of the year next week, business leader Don Argus and National Australia Bank chairman Michael Chaney declared it was crucial the banks were in a position to continue lending if the economy suffered a downturn.]

    Big story on the front of their site today at the Oz. I think its an emotional cry for help from an unloved business sector.

  35. [As I remember only two polling organisations had Labor below 30. The other two have always been 30 or above.]

    But ‘below 30’ makes for a better figure to quote in every single story about how Gillard is totally doooomed forever.

  40. So, does anyone thing that there is, just possibly, an element of over-reach in the OOpo’s calls for an AFP inquiry into the events of Jan 26th??

    I reckon they must have a lot of faith in the MSM’s obsession with spinning everything agin JG to call for that.

  41. this sorry saga, of aust. day.’is one of the saddest days I can remembe
    abbott only had to say not appropriate question for aust. day.
    but he chose not to.
    WHY?

    night all

  42. [jennineak: Chris Pyne wants an AFP investigation into what sparked #tentembassy protest. Is 200 yrs of oppression not a valid enough reason? #auspol]

  43. Gee, if I was a cynic I’d think that the Coalition have waited until it was clear the AFP would conduct no investigation before ramping up their calls for one. I don’t think they want one at all. I think they just want to be able to go around demanding one. They’ve sniffed the political winds and worked out how to milk it.

    They can strut around saying they want honesty and clarity, safe in the knowledge that there’s nothing to clarify at all.

    Maybe the ALP should ride it out for another day, then demand to know Abbott’s attitude to the Tent Embassy, what he really meant with his statement on Thursday morning, and how he feels about the Menzies House viewpoint on the matter. Flush him out, say “Abbott claims to want the truth. We demand the truth behind his imflammatory statement on Australia Day. We demand an investigation into how the Tent Embassy were really informed.”

  44. This is so funny. All the votes that Labor has lost would most probably vote Labor with Rudd as leader.

    Those who would ALREADY vote Labor are evenly divided between the two. It is only Rudd who can pick up what needs to be had to win the next election. At this very point in time.

    I now predict many pages of Rudd slagging that usually follows these types of results.

    Enjoy yourselves. LoL.

  45. [How Surprisement

    australianThe Australian

    Libs baulk on referendum support: COALITION support for a referendum on constitutional recognition of indigenous… http://bit.ly/xOL8X8

    2 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]

    Frank, or in other words, it’s time to “move on”

  46. My say I just mean I will likely vote for the person I think deserves my vote regardless of which party they come from. In one insane time in the 80’s I actually voted for a Democrat candidate.

  49. [My say I just mean I will likely vote for the person I think deserves my vote regardless of which party they come from. In one insane time in the 80′s I actually voted for a Democrat candidate.]

    DavidWH, nothing wrong with that, that’s how our democracy should work. But generally people vote for their party

  50. [146

    george

    Posted Monday, January 30, 2012 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    How Surprisement

    australianThe Australian

    Libs baulk on referendum support: COALITION support for a referendum on constitutional recognition of indigenous… http://bit.ly/xOL8X8

    2 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply

    Frank, or in other words, it’s time to “move on”
    ]

    Note Kn Wyatt’s comments from Friday supporting Abbott .

    Lets just say he hopes that the black vote will stick by him next time cos I reckon any goodwill he’s gained will vanish.

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