UPDATE: The first Newspoll result of the year has just been reported, and I’m sticking it on the top of the existing post because of technical difficulties we’re having. The poll has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, in common with Essential Research and Galaxy (see below), and indeed with last year’s final Newspoll result from December 2-4. However, Newspoll has both parties solidly lower on the primary vote than the other two pollsters, at 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition – which is respectively down one and up one on the December poll. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is also down three points to 33 per cent and her disapproval is down one to 55 per cent. Tony Abbott’s numbers are all but identical to Gillard’s, his approval steady on 32 per cent and disapproval down two to 55 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-36 to 40-37.
The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.
Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election
The principal reason for the Gillard / Rudd split is the massively anti-Gillard vote from Coalition supporters. I guess if they want Rudd to lead the Labor party it might be for reasons not altogether in line with the interests of the ALP! 😉
Even if Wilkie decided to support a motion of no-confidence Abbott would need 76 votes for a SSO wouldn’t he?
Not gonna happen.
DavidWH at 39: “Won’t Labor need some of those LNP voters who favour Rudd if they want to get ahead in the polls?”
Most of those voters favour Rudd as leader of the Labor Party because they reckon its is in the Coalition’s interests for him to be so. Doesn’t mean they’d be more likely to vote for him than JG.
o dear. I think the pokies
have gone off the front page.
[davidbewart davidbewart
Abbott should get on the tent phone and sort this mess out ]
No. But think of the unhingement!
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/independent-mp-andrew-wilkie-considers-supporting-no-confidence-motion-in-labor-over-australia-day-riots/story-e6freuzr-1226256687925
[Independent MP Andrew Wilkie considers supporting no-confidence motion in Labor over Australia Day riots
Patrick Lion, Simon Benson
The Daily Telegraph
January 30, 2012 12:00AM
INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie has raised the prospect of supporting a no-confidence motion in Labor over the Australia Day security scare.
Raising serious doubts over the Prime Minister’s version of events of what went on in her office, Mr Wilkie said yesterday he would back moves to bring the matter before parliament to help him decide a position before a no-confidence vote.
……………
Stressing he maintained a “very high” threshold for backing a no-confidence motion, Mr Wilkie confirmed he would support a move by Mr Abbott to suspend standing orders and debate the issue.
“There is some doubt in my mind about the facts of the matter,” Mr Wilkie said. “It does seem to be very unlikely this man has made these decisions off his own bat.”]
If you were Vince Focarelli’s life insurer, you’d pay up now so he could enjoy it in the short time he has left before he is bumped off.
[COMANCHERO bikie gang member Giovanni Focarelli has been shot dead and his father, club president Vince, has survived a fourth attempt on his life.]
The way these pollsters do the preferred party leader questions is just all sorts of stupid. What do all the rusted on LNP voters say – undoubtedly a lot of them are going to be giving Kevn Rudd as a response with no intention whatsoever of ever voting for the ALP come hell or high water. The same the other way with Malcolm Turnbull vs Tony Abbott for rusted on ALP voters.
What the pollsters should be doing, as others have pointed out here, is do what they do in the US and ask party voting intention in a series of matchups between leaders – ie would you vote for the ALP or the LNP in the event of Julia Gillard vs Tony Abbott, what about Julia Gillard vs Malcolm Turnbull, what about Kevin Rudd vs Tony Abbott etc etc.
It would inevitably still be somewhat open to gaming by the hardcores on both sides, but most people will be largely honest, and aren’t then being asked to vote for a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea…
Brandis is going to end up as a laughing stock if he keeps running to the cops every time he finds his shoelaces untied.
wilkie will just anger the denision base even more,.
he. should learn to just look after his constuents.
a oncer I feel
there are so many issues in denison,
he should be taking notice of.
I think for example he could ne asking questions about why our air fares are now so high,
I have mentioned this here before, but unless u live on an island
then none of you would understand.
[Brandis is going to end up as a laughing stock]
Puff, what you mean “end up”
[geeksrulz: Abbott has been working the #tentphone very hard to try and secure his leadership. #libspill #auspol]
Rudd will be reinstalled about may in a bid to save some seats.
He will improve the Partys vote, and an election may be called late in the year, but they wiil not win enough seats to form a Government.
After the election Bill Shorten will be installed to rebuild the party for the long road back to power.
Thats my prediction for next 12 months
StGusface Gusface
@ @gordongraham I think andrew is going down the nelson/fielding pathh- hope he doesnt wander the streets at 3am in his tarago
rod.
if I was rang in a poll and ask about abbott or turnbull, I would
stir the pot and say turnbull.
[ockerguy
Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink
Rudd will be reinstalled about may in a bid to save some seats.
He will improve the Partys vote, and an election may be called late in the year, but they wiil not win enough seats to form a Government.
After the election Bill Shorten will be installed to rebuild the party for the long road back to power.
Thats my prediction for next 12 months
]
Keep Dreaming – it will NEVER happen
ocker
stop using my helium!!!!!
U CANT HANDLE IT
Detective Grattan is hot on the trail of wrongdoers in her latest case. The highlight of her long career is unfolding as she puts together the last remaining bits of evidence to finally nail that dastardly Juliar who she has been tirelessly investigating for the past two years. 😉
[ JULIA Gillard is desperately trying to draw a line under her former staff member’s role in stirring up tent embassy protesters who caused the security incident on Australia Day. It won’t be that easy.
The affair has thrown more questions over the PM’s credibility, reinforced criticisms of her office, and left her waiting for the federal police response to the opposition’s demand for an inquiry.
Coming after her broken promise to Andrew Wilkie on pokies, which has made the government’s position shakier in Parliament, this is a further blight on the start of her year. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/embassy-new-blow-to-pms-credibility-20120129-1qo2r.html
[DavidWH
Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink
Won’t Labor need some of those LNP voters who favour Rudd if they want to get ahead in the polls?]
That was my first thought too David.
My second thought was – If pollsters are going to ask questions about who people prefer – Rudd or Gillard- why don’t they take the trouble to ask the obvious follow-up question – which party would they vote for if Rudd was PM.
[
gordongrahamGordon Graham
Embassy new blow to PM’s credibility writes Michelle Grattan in The Age … nothing new
14 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]
george,
oops, my bad. 😀
Why can’t bludgers just accept what has happened with the whole Australia Day fiasco? Why do you need to harass people on twitter with your mad conspiracy theories? What happened happened. Just accept it and move on.
Julia Gillard is the only person this could have happened to. There is something about her that people just don’t respect. Even the supposedly apolitical High Court took its opportunity to defecate all over her when the opportunity arose with the Malaysia Solution decision.
Gillard is finished as Prime Minister now. There have just been too many disasters, too much damage has been done. The only questions that need to be answered are when will the move be made to topple her and will it be a Ruddstoration or a fresh face to replace her? But either way, she’s toast.
Lleyton now a better commentator than player – its official.
Rod I think there would be a fair number of people who have swung from Labor to the LNP because of the PM’s actions since the election. Labor has to claw these people back. I doubt it’s as simple as LNP voters just stirring the pot.
Having said that the trend is back to Labor despite the issues with the PM and is likely to continue simply because it is hard to imagine Abbott as the PM and the lack of policy substance from the opposition.
The trend is good for Labor but I dont think the PM’s credibility issue has gone away.
[Gillard is finished as Prime Minister now]
😆 you know LeisureLarry, that “chose” technique isn’t meant to be used around one’s neck 😆
[if I was rang in a poll and ask about abbott or turnbull, I would
stir the pot and say turnbull.]
My Say, when they ask me for preferred PM, I tell them Tereasa Gambaro 😀
chose=choke
so rudd installed by may u reakon
then a so called bounce rudd
gets the media on his back AGAIN. back to square one
if that was to happen I would vote green
And yet Leisure suit loser, Abbott has a worse approval rating…
mick,
I would say chris.’pyne,
[if that was to happen I would vote green]
Oh God don’t let Frank hear you say that.
heya joe H
i mean larry
anyways why the sad face?
[And yet Leisure suit loser, Abbott has a worse approval rating…]
And Paul Keating led John Howard as preferred Prime Minister right up until he lost to him in a landslide.
[gordongraham: in response to this, the ALP should call an inquiry into the protest against @AlboMP last year. I’m sure it wasn’t just Mirabella involved]
[There is something about her that people just don’t respect. Even the supposedly apolitical High Court took its opportunity to defecate all over her when the opportunity arose with the Malaysia Solution decision.]
why do fibs have a hang up with shit???
Is is cos instead of blood, shit flows thru their veins?
Leisure Suit Larry has spoken. Turn your brains off, people. Relax. Just stop thinking. He’s done it – follow his example.
[Having said that the trend is back to Labor]
That’s the second time I have read that tonight. But a 2PP of 54-46 seems to be the same as we had before. Where is the trend?
[And Paul Keating led John Howard as preferred Prime Minister right up until he lost to him in a landslide.]
And Jesus Christ still won the olympics even though he only had a flush and 20 chips left and the bus had already left before history had been written… go figure!
My Say, Pyne isnt woman enough to be PM 😀
george
didnt phar lap win the marathon?
No name-calling, Henry.
Gillard has been written off a number of times. One day they maybe right, eventually. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it though.
Darn 4 months ago Labor’s primary vote was in the 20’s now it’s in the 30’s so the trend is improvement for Labor. Time will tell if it continues or plateaus.
[didnt phar lap win the marathon?]
gus, only if you were squinting at the time
William after your, little remark at 6.
I may have misunderstood u on occasions,
u should use the smiles, if so i apologise.
but, surely u dont think an abbott gov, next time is set in concrete. do u
darn – the trend is since October with Galaxy. But yes compared to the last bunch of Essential Polls, no change. I think there is a slight trend showing in other areas. Forget the Morgan poll dodgy poll to poll figures, but look at the at the trend graph (jumpy but improving) and the improvement in govt confidence ratings which is similar to consumer confidence changes).
Any serious improvement to Labor won’t actually be until later this year, IMO.
[Darn 4 months ago Labor’s primary vote was in the 20′s now it’s in the 30′s so the trend is improvement for Labor. Time will tell if it continues or plateaus.]
As I remember only two polling organisations had Labor below 30. The other two have always been 30 or above.
george
well it was alonga tima ago
[And Paul Keating led John Howard as preferred Prime Minister right up until he lost to him in a landslide.]
I think you will find that is incorrect.