Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. confessions and imacca
    imo the pm’s negotiating skills will bring all of this together for a good outcome. let’s hope so.

  4. THE first political opinion poll of the year shows the federal coalition continuing to hold an election-winning lead over Labor. ]

    Poor Gary Morgan. He polls nobody takes any notice.

  5. Lyne Lady:

    I’ve said before that if I were Wilkie I’d be talking to Mal Washer and Judy Moylan, both of whom retire at the next election, and unlike with same sex marriage, can’t cite their electorate’s conservatism for wanting status quo on pokies as an excuse for not crossing the floor.

  7. [confessions

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Lyne Lady:

    I’ve said before that if I were Wilkie I’d be talking to Mal Washer and Judy Moylan, both of whom retire at the next election, and unlike with same sex marriage, can’t cite their electorate’s conservatism for wanting status quo on pokies as an excuse for not crossing the floor.
    ]

    Forget about Washer and Moylan.

    They are as Moderate as Stalin

    Cormann is after their seats – they will do as Abbott tells them.

  10. Frank:

    They will in all likelihood vote with the coalition, but Wilkie should be taking every opportunity to ensure support for his bills – assuming of course that he isn’t.

  13. Frank Calabrese

    Uncle Colin is a man of truly immense talent. In a mere 3 and a bit years he turned the 100lb weakling $3.63 billion state debt of 2008 into the Charles Atlas $13 billion debt of today .Projected to hit $22 billion by 2014.

  15. [poroti

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    Uncle Colin is a man of truly immense talent. In a mere 3 and a bit years he turned the 100lb weakling $3.63 billion state debt of 2008 into the Charles Atlas $13 billion debt of today .Projected to hit $22 billion by 2014.
    ]

    But do the media attack him for it ??

    Or is that a pig up in the sky – and I’m referring to Polair 61 either.

  16. [With Prime Minister Julia Gillard back at work and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott still on leave, the Essential poll showed the coalition’s position unchanged since mid-December on 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.]

    So Tony is on Hols for another week, lazy bugger. What happened to only taking Christmas Day off?

  17. bemused,

    [Frank @ 86
    Are they trying the same trick as with Qld floods and skimming off for the Liberal Party? ]

    Noorty, noorty! The Liberal Party wouldn’t do something like “that” would they?

    Would they? 👿

    You bet your last five cents they would.

  18. [In a mere 3 and a bit years he turned the 100lb weakling $3.63 billion state debt of 2008 into the Charles Atlas $13 billion debt of today .Projected to hit $22 billion by 2014.]

    Imagine what it would be if not for the mining boom.

  20. [confessions

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    In a mere 3 and a bit years he turned the 100lb weakling $3.63 billion state debt of 2008 into the Charles Atlas $13 billion debt of today .Projected to hit $22 billion by 2014.

    Imagine what it would be if not for the mining boom.
    ]

    As long as the Cashed Up bogans can afford their Utes and Booze Uncle colin can do no wrong.

  22. ruawake,

    You have it all wrong Tone’s said he’d quite happily work christmas day. But I think Margie might have put the kybosh on that. 😉

  23. [Simon Peterffy, has now been taken into police custody over another matter. Police say he has an outstanding fine and will be required to pay the monies owed or serve an appropriate prison term if he is unable to do so. ]

    I am sure someone will pay his fine. Poor chap, fancy having an outstanding arrest warrant and then seeking public support. 😆

  24. Frank Calabrese
    [Projected to hit $22 billion by 2014.

    But do the media attack him for it ??

    Or is that a pig up in the sky – and I’m referring to Polair 61 either.]
    It seems some journos did mention it.But Howard ,Paul,Channel Stokes and Channel Gina have been studiously quiet. Meaning the journo below wrote “which, if widely known, ”

    [Dirty Little Secret Hangs Over Barnett

    Colin Barnett and Christian Porter share a dirty little secret.

    It is the kind of secret, which, if widely known, would have voters squirming and might even cause them to rethink their decision to vote for the Liberals in 2008.

    Both men have studiously avoided talking about]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/benharvey/post/7/

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/8864825/state-debt-tipped-to-hit-20b/

  26. Lyne Lady
    [imo the pm’s negotiating skills will bring all of this together for a good outcome. let’s hope so.]

    I agree, the PM is a superb negotiator, she’ll get what she wants.

  27. My first post for 2012.

    Hmm; the minority government has made it to Jan ’12. Julia has lasted as PM to Jan ’12. And according to reliable sources :mrgreen: has been spotted at Toronga Park during the school holidays in preparation for his permanent residency in Dec ’12 after he’s sacked from the leadership of his Party.

  29. are the gradually going off abbott. as dear leader Victoria, hence. the big story in the mercury
    australian. women , love board shorts and hate budgie.s

    do u know i never new they where called that till abbott wore them.

  30. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Notice how the #MSMhacks are furiously labelling PM Gillard’s deal with Wilkie over the Pokies Reform as another broken promise #auspol
    24 seconds ago

  31. [It seems some journos did mention it.But Howard ,Paul,Channel Stokes and Channel Gina have been studiously quiet. Meaning the journo below wrote “which, if widely known, ”]

    and Ben Harvey was demoted to Business Editor straight after that and replaced as political editor by Gary Adshead – formally of Inside Cover.

  32. How many journos called it that Julia would not make it to 2012 as PM, or there would be an election prior to 2012 due to an unworkable minority government?

    They should all do the right thing, get on the right foot straight away for 2012, and RESIGN!

  39. ruawake @ 135

    That proves nothing about negotiation skill, just look what she was up against.

    Constant repetition does not make something true.

    Brandt was committed in all his election material to support an ALP Govt. No negotiating required there.

    Windsor, Oakeshott and Wilkie all knew damn well that the Rabbott just wanted to rush to the polls so not much was required to get their support.

  40. The msm hacks need to get their facts sorted.

    Wilkie is proposing BOTH a mandatory pre-commitment for high-intensity poker machines and the introduction of low-intensity pojker machines with a $1 bet limit. This, he said, would mean that the 88% of Aussies who never make bets higher than $1 anyway would not have to bother regisitering for pre-committment.
    http://www.austgamingcouncil.org.au/images/pdf/Political_Commentary/australian%20agenda%20240711.pdf

    Naturally the msm are not telling us this, neither are the clubs. I’m sure the PM is well aware of Wilkie’s plan, even if no-one who should be telling us all about it has bothered to study it. We’ll eventually get legislation that makes him – and the other indies – happy and a lot of media dopes will once again be left looking like the idiots they are.

  41. see bemused, I. knew u would jump to the key board..

    so. you think otherwise do u.

    tobacco tax, global warming, carbon price,
    every bit of the 200 bits o legislation that got through, had to be negotiated,
    hospital funding,..

    tasmanian forests,

    and of course she walked away fro m. NONE of. it
    I wonder. sometimes why u stay as a member, of. the alp
    Should not all members and ele ted members stay loyal to the pm.

  42. Frank Calabrese

    [and Ben Harvey was demoted to Business Editor straight after that and replaced as political editor by Gary Adshead – formally of Inside Cover.]
    Good to see you keep an eye on who’s who in the W.A. meeja zoo :).But heaven forbid a journo would dare tell readers of The Worst Australian newspaper the truth about Barnett and Porter’s economic management. Imagine the shouting from the journalistic rooftops had a Labor state government managed a 600%+ debt increase in a mere 6 years.

  43. [poroti

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    and Ben Harvey was demoted to Business Editor straight after that and replaced as political editor by Gary Adshead – formally of Inside Cover.

    Good to see you keep an eye on who’s who in the W.A. meeja zoo .But heaven forbid a journo would dare tell readers of The Worst Australian newspaper the truth about Barnett and Porter’s economic management. Imagine the shouting from the journalistic rooftops had a Labor state government managed a 600%+ debt increase in a mere 6 years.
    ]

    Dixie wasn’t happy and Ben was punished as a result – Adshead is now doing Ripper is dead beatups.

  44. mr wilkiesaidyesterday

    he had. no intention. of givi g a running g commentary on it,

    good on him with. that decision
    but this is what. the media has done with every bit of legislation
    all going to the senate,

  46. Yes connie good one!

    But we should review their past declarations and demand they at least apologise for their sheer analytical incompetence and stupidity, if not resign.

    Oh Ray Hadley is in for a great year.

    He declared Combet will be leading the Labor Party by year end.

    Show some integrity Know Nothing Hadley – and ready yourself to resign!

  50. [Frank Calabrese

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    ruawake

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    If the Missos are supposedly trying to roll Ripper he is safer than Jay.

    Joe Bullock lives up to his name
    ]

    I should clarify that Joe Bullock heads the SDA 🙂

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