Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. Confessions, William

    Yes i worry about Vera. Can someone contact her

    Gus I think was in contact. I know she was very unwell so I hope she is OK

  3. A couple of things re Ripper’s “Leadership”

    a) Tinley was never a contender – he was named by Dowding and the media ran with the Story.

    b) Unless McGowan publicltyy declares hes goin g to run there is no challenge.

    and C) noting will happen till the Labor Lovein at Bunbury.

    In iother words it is a non-story for the silly season.

  4. I note that Mr Loughnane has popped up to do the heavy MSM lifting while Mr Abbott takes a breather.

    Mr Loughnane thinks that it is unfair that the Labor Government has criticised Mr Abbott for being negative. He thinks that Labor is doing it to distract people from the fact that the Government is a total failure because: (here append usual list of negative criticisms.}

    After some incisive critical questioning from Mr Gilbert of Mr Loughnane I believe that, as expected, there will indeed by a new real 2012 Mr Abbott. Here are some indicators for the existence of the new real 2012 Mr Abbott:

    He will say, ‘Yes, but!’ instead of, ‘No!’
    He will do visionary positive headland speeches. The vision will stress increased personal choice and reduced taxation for the wealthy, screwing the disadvantaged, dog whistling those who made unfortunate selections of parents (poor, bad genes, born o/s, etc, etc) and pillaging public assets.
    He will announce policies that can be run on the smell of an oily asylum seeker.
    He will seek to explain that, while Work Choices is dead and buried, there is a need for flexibility in the labour market because we need improved productivity and this will involve workers being able to make free and informed decisions to screw themselves on behalf of their employers.
    He will also provide generous policy advice to the Government. This policy advice will be simplistic, take less than a sentence to describe, will not fix the problem, but will suit the attention span of most MSM journos and their clients. The advice will generally fit the format of, ‘Julia Gillard should just pick up the phone and…’

  7. Tracy bowden born in tas,

    yes she is like her dad Tim a class act

    and re the forestry that is not locked. up all our furniture is black wood,”the crafts people who make fine furniture need an area to get their timber, or they will be without work wealthy people and so wealthy. order black wood furniture and a couple of outlets sell only blackwood

  10. [SteveCannane Steve Cannane
    Tonight on #thedrum on @ABCNews24 and ABC 1 @sophblack @davidtmiles Michael Gleeson and Carol Bennett on medicare rorts 6pm repeated at 10pm]

    What? No IPA?! I’m shocked.

  11. [

    BillJohnstonMLABill Johnston

    Another WA Minister can’t read or do math – WA royalties are up, not down, as claimed by Grylls in AFR. Read p59 of http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/State_finances/2011-12_government_mid-year_financial_projections_statement.pdf

    1 hour ago FavoriteRetweetReply

    benwyattBen Wyatt MLA

    @

    @BillJohnstonMLA Govt trying to talk down their embarrassment of riches?

    39 minutes ago

    in reply to ↑

    @del_detrimentdelectable_detriment

    .@benwyatt @BillJohnstonMLA Riches? I can’t even pay my electricity bill. I’m sick to death of hearing about their (not MY) ‘mining boom’.

    33 minutes ago via Twitter for AndroidFavoriteRetweetReply]

  12. Have to agree with my say about Tracey Bowden and her dad Tim.

    Tim made a great series of documentary radio programs about Australian prisoners of war under the Japanese. It gets re-broadcast periodically and is well worth a listen. What those blokes endured and the things they managed to accomplish in appalling conditions are amazing.

  16. [Now you tell me how can a big ship like that sunk in a bathtub]

    The driver had just got his Tonka Truck – er Ship license?

  18. So, free sub to the OO still hasn’t run out though i’m sure its more than 3 months ago??

    Anyway, have been perusing the online OO and they seem to be getting a bit heated over the pokies thing. To read the headlines you’d think it was all coming unstuck.

    Then, read the articles. Seems the PM made time on her visit to Tassie to discuss with Wilke, they both described the discussions as productive, but the OO headlines with:

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard throws pokies reform into doubt]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/prime-minister-julia-gillard-throws-pokies-reform-into-doubt/story-fn59niix-1226245320362

    Simply because she wont say what the press want her to say?? And oh my Dog! Wilke wont use the terms the press want him to either!!!! So, of course they are justified in making a front page story out of what people wont say, aren’t they??

    Boot Strapping Tosspots! is this a Newspoll week or something??

    Xeno and the Greens are feeding this a bit i think as they seem to want their policy of $1 bets rather than the mandatory pre-commitment. Will be interesting to see how Brandt votes in the HoR when this comes up. I’d think he will speech on it, but go along if it looks like the ALP can muster the votes.

    Anyone know how Oakshotte and Windsor are leaning on this??

  20. [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    Frank: Surely Ripper can’t keep scoring such dismal Newspoll ratings and survive as WA Labor leader?
    ]

    Newspoll is a joke.

    834 people polled the last one was taken during CHOGM when Barnett was manhandling Betty windsor at every opportunity.

    Next.

  22. William, here’s an idea! Why not start a new thread headed ‘The Intrigues of WA ALP‘?

    We seem to be getting enough material on it here to justify a separate thread. 😀

  23. [bemused

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    William, here’s an idea! Why not start a new thread headed ‘The Intrigues of WA ALP‘?

    We seem to be getting enough material on it here to justify a separate thread.
    ]

    Scroll past if you don’t like it.

  25. [Now you tell me how can a big ship like that sunk in a bathtub]

    Interesting that you can see lifeboats on the port side that didn’t make it into the water before the ship rolled. Any idea how long it took to roll after it got gutted on the rocks?

    Skipper much in manure think i.

  30. [bemused

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Frank @ 76

    says the bloke who is a Rudd Acolyte

    1. I am no-ones acolyte.
    2. What is the relevance of Rudd to WA?
    ]

    1 pull the other one.

    2 it’s just like the ruddstoration crap which you lap up with great delight.

  33. [It started to list 45 minutes after they heard the scrunch, I think they said.]

    Weird. Cant believe that they would have cut things that close to a harbor. I mean, it would have to be pretty well surveyed around there and its not like its hard to keep position in that kind of territory.

    Wonder if they had the pax on board long enough to do any kind of evacuation drill?

  34. Frank @ 80

    By the numbers…
    1. Not pulling anything
    2. On the leadership issue, I am, like you, merely an observer and occasionally comment.

  35. [bemused

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Frank @ 80

    By the numbers…
    1. Not pulling anything
    2. On the leadership issue, I am, like you, merely an observer and occasionally comment.
    ]
    And if you believe that then you know the rest about Real Estate.

  38. Don’t tell me the skipper was playing follow-the-leader bunga bunga-wise and the ship of leisure then aped the ship of state?

  39. this is rob’s statement on gambling reform
    STATEMENT ON GAMBLING REFORM

    14/01/2012
    On poker machine reform, I have consistently stated I will weigh up legislation on its merits when the detailed legislation is released and, if good, I’ll back it, and if bad, I won’t.
    This continues to be the case and, as yet, I have not seen any legislation – not even in draft form. What I have received is an initial departmental briefing. It became clear in that briefing that the strategy the department is taking is to introduce ‘framework’ legislation this parliamentary session, with all the key details to come at some later date via regulations.
    The department also indicated there would need to be a mandatory pre-commitment card for each separate operating system in Australia, meaning at least seven different cards in the one wallet. This week I have indicated to both the Prime Minister and Mr Wilkie that both these matters are of concern if my support is being sought.
    I support gambling reform in Australia and do agree the communities most in need are hit the hardest by no reform. I respect and acknowledge the productivity reasons why the independent Productivity Commission has delivered two reports on this since 1999. I therefore urge all parties to continue to negotiate so as to achieve a necessary reform for Australia and Australian productivity.
    ENDS
    Media Contact: Sharon Fuller – 0429 787320

  41. I was on a huge stink boat on Sydney Harbour once, we were all off our faces on illicit substances (OK cocaine and booze).

    The boat had controls on two decks and everyone was sure the guy on the other deck was steering. Except nobody was at the wheel for about 15 mins. 😯

  43. Evan, from the WA Thread:

    [The latest quarterly Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia (the only WA polling game in town now that The West Australian appears to have mothballed Westpoll) has delivered the Barnett government its strongest result yet: a 59-41 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of 46 per cent for the Liberals (up four on the July-September poll), 4 per cent for the Nationals (down two), 29 per cent for Labor (steady) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Colin Barnett has enjoyed a very healthy fillip on his personal ratings: up seven points on approval to 58 per cent and down seven on disapproval to 28 per cent, which I’m tempted to credit to CHOGM and its attendant photo opportunities. Eric Ripper can at least take solace in a four point drop in disapproval to 39 per cent, with his approval steady at 34 per cent, but Barnett’s already handsome lead as preferred premier has blown out further from 56-22 to 59-18.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/01/09/newspoll-59-41-to-liberal-national-in-wa/

    Yet the Media Bootstrap is concentrating on the preferred Premier figure.

  45. [I along with thousands of other Australians, will take part in this year’s Bupa Challenge Tour to raise money for the Cancer Council, the official charity partner of the Santos Tour Down Under.]

    Well done Tony, get the sponsors names in.

    Will you let British United Provident Association build their own hospital in Australia? Will you let Santos extract coal seam gas. Stupid man.

    What conflict of interest. 🙁

  46. Lyne Lady:

    Windsor has said something similar in the past as well. I guess we just have to wait until the bills go before parliament to see what will happen.

  47. imacca

    [Interesting that you can see lifeboats on the port side that didn’t make it into the water before the ship rolled. ]
    It seems the ship initially listed to port and they started evacuating on that side and then it suddenly went over to starboard.Listen to the audio of the crew member interviewed.There have been reports of men pushing aside women and children but from what the guy says it seems what it was was that families were not accepting being seperated.
    [ Then the ship rolled again, now listing to the right, and the captain ordered the ship to be abandoned
    Mr Ordona said his colleagues and passengers were waiting to use lifeboats but the change in the direction the boat was sinking prompted them to seek lifeboats on the other side of the ship]
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16561382

  48. [this is rob’s statement on gambling reform
    STATEMENT ON GAMBLING REFORM]

    Surprisement! Oakshotte is waiting to see the legislation, has some queries about method, but doesn’t seem to be panning the idea. Hmmm, i’d think that the pokies bill process is probably going as well as these things ever do at this stage.

    Shove cometh to push, will any of the non-coalition players want to push Wilke into a situation where he withdraws support for the Govt? I wouldn’t think any of them have anything to gain from that.

  50. [99

    Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Frank: nice attempt at spinning it in favour of Ripper, but it still looks bad for WA Labor.
    ]

    Evan,

    I know more than what the media are telling.

    It’s BS pure and simple.

    There is NO challenge – only hyportheticals.

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