Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. SK:

    It never fails to astound me how stupid some people can be on the roads!

    Glad you are ok and have lived to report the story.

  2. [There is no point implementing all the recommendations as they won’t be passed.]
    And Wilkie would have then walked away from the government. Lose, lose for the government.

  3. Thanks Victoria. The PM’s ability to negotiate through these mine fields must really do Abbott’s head in. The thought of that gives me great joy.

  4. *curiosity kills the cat*

    In the LA Times article, there was a reference to Santorum’s rally being held at “wing restaurant”. Laocoön had not heard of this establishment, so he googled “wing restaurant florida”.

    My goodness. I don’t know if this is the one, but this is the first reference that came up.

    [Ker’s WingHouse restaurant specializes in buffalo chicken wings, hot sauce, beer , great food and great WingHouse girl service in Florida and Texas!]
    Riiiiiiiiiiiiight. I suspect it does not aim to receive a Michelin star.

    Then I went to the website. My goodness. I think it is the first “restaurant” site I have ever been to that starts off with its 2012 swimsuit calendar promotion. Let’s just say if the silicon recall were to hit Florida, Wing Restaurant is in sorts of problems.

    The perfect backdrop for a morals based Republican party candidate in 2012.

  5. bemused,

    The inner grub emerges again.

    She still hasn’t answered the question: “Apart from the ATM withdrawal restrictions, which exact parts of the Govt’s pokie reform plan will not apply to the casinos?”.

    I suspect she has no intention of doing so…

  6. If pokies reform bills pass parliament (as most expect they will), the question then becomes whether the coalition would seek to repeal them if they won govt.

    Abbott is rapidly accumulating a raft of laws he is promising to roll back. This is hardly a credible policy position.

  7. Well, the vested interests would have no power if the Libs and Nats had joined with Government in reforming the pokies industry. Sadly, the Coalition speaks for the vested interests.

  8. Kersebleptes @ 5437


    Once William does what he should have done yesterday, all will be sweetness and light.

    But I have to say, I think that he is deliberately keeping it there. He had the chance when he first logged on yesterday; I reminded him about it politely last night when he was there. Yet it remains.

    Not good enough by half.

    So getting down and wallowing in the sewer with Desert Fox somehow helps?

    Don’t mess with an idiot, he would get you down to his level and beat you with experience.

  9. victoria & gus,

    You’re right about Socrates being owed an apology, despite William implicitly condoning the term.

    He’ll get one, but when he’s back here. I won’t leave one lying around for him to come across.

  10. [The thought of that gives me great joy.]


    I was overjoyed to read that Abbott would be targetting Thomson and bringing on no-confidence motions in parliament. His desperation is reaching ever-increasing Unhingement levels. So close to power, yet still so, so far away! 😆

  11. bemused@5377:

    Here is the link to Breakfast report with Robbie Dare, mayor of Diamantina Shire Council.


    Thanks for that, it is interesting that there are many people in outback communities who see the value of high speed internet access, and can see the problems with depending on the restricted pipeline of satellite access.

    You’d know more about it than me, but my understanding is that they are squeezing more capacity from optical fibre all the time, whereas microwave and radio transmissions are more or less at their theoretical limit.

  12. Lynchpin, I’m sorry if I offended you earlier. I actually agree with much of what you say usually and value your contribution here.

  13. DavidWH @ 5450

    Carefull you don’t swing me too far bemused or I may end up joining the Greens.

    Comrade, you have inspired great faith in your mother. She will know when to apply the brakes. 😉

  14. Laocoon

    [*curiosity kills the cat*]
    Grandpappy taught me the full story i “Curiosoiy killed the cat but satisfaction brought it back” 🙂

  15. [Lynchpin, I’m sorry if I offended you earlier. I actually agree with much of what you say usually and value your contribution here.]

    Gary, no offense taken. Although getting a chiding from you did make me sit up and take notice – because of the very fact that I very much value your opinions.

    Thanks for the reply, much appreciated.

  16. Note to Turnbull: Think of this sad story while trying to sell your dodgy “Kodak NBN”

    [Kodak has finally formalised what had been expected for years — it’s gone bankrupt. In the past 15 years, digital technology changed photography dramatically, and Kodak, a former heavyweight in the analog film business, got left behind.

    That’s the story of Kodak in the broadest of strokes, though it doesn’t capture the full (if you’ll forgive me) picture. In fact, Kodak missed the boat on digital not once, but at least three times. Besides never capitalising on the digital-camera tech it helped create, Kodak also gravely misunderstood the new ways consumers wanted to interact with their photos, the technologies involved, and the market forces surrounding them]

    Read more:

    (And SMH sources this story to “This post was originally published on Mashable”. I wonder if the MSM are taking the Kodak story to heart. It is one thing for ~half a Fairfax paper to be reprints from “overseas” papers, but to now be reprinting blogs…*shakes head*)

  17. bemused

    My “sort of apology” was intended as an apology to those mentioned AND a dig at Bilbo.

    Two birds with one stone if you like. One of the probs with the interwebz is sometimes playful pokes get misconstrued.

    I blame iPad keyboards for this (that was a joke BTW).

  18. GG
    When you start using words like wowser you are getting to the bottom of the argument barrel. The self-interest of the pokie barons is only matched by that of the tobacco lobby.

    Also the main issue is not the gambling addict (nice bit of clubs’ spin, ‘problem gamber” – the gambler is the problem, not the computer programs in the machines) it is the uncontrollable urge to put money in the machine deliberately induced by the machines, the creation of the addiction, not the results.

    Fire bugs create lots of jobs for firefighters and road accidents create employment for doctors, nurses and undertakers. Shall we legalise fire-starting and increase speed limits?

  19. [I’m in the inner-west. ]

    Bobalot – Anthony Albanese or Tanya Plibersek. Lucky if you get either one of those – both fantastic with their Branches.

  20. Speaking of how limiting climate change can actually save us billions:

    Test of 400 options shows we can save money while limiting climate change

    [Now for the cost of all this: they estimated that 2030 emissions could be reduced by 110 teragrams (Tg, 1012 grams) of CH4 with costs below $1500 per metric ton of CH4. Accepting a somewhat lower target, 90 Tg, would cost even less: $250 per metric ton. The economic benefit of reducing these emissions, on the other hand, is conservatively about $1100 per metric ton of CH4 and potentially as high as $5000 per metric ton. Most of the reductions, then, produce benefits outweighing the costs.]

  21. don @ 5467

    You’d know more about it than me, but my understanding is that they are squeezing more capacity from optical fibre all the time, whereas microwave and radio transmissions are more or less at their theoretical limit.

    Simple explanation really. A few issues.
    1. There is a much wider light spectrum than radio frequency spectrum so much more available bandwidth.
    2. Fibre is a ‘bounded media’ so each user connected to a fibre potentially has the whole light spectrum to themselves. All uses in a particular area (mobile phone cell for example) share a small part of the RF spectrum allocated for that purpose. RF Spectrum is a scarce commodity and has a lot of users competing for it.
    3. Fibre has been improving over the last few decades and can now carry signals much greater distances without repeaters and can also use more parts of the light spectrum.

  22. This is on is great article on how nature being an inspiration to improving technology:

    Sunflowers inspire improved solar power plant

    [The sunflower-inspired layout could reduce the footprint of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants by about 20 percent, which could be a boon for a technology that’s limited, in part, by its massive land requirements.]

  23. George

    [Any chance we can get this Irish journalist to become the chief question-asker for one Tony Abbott?]

    That was great… However labor is the one with hundreds of questions on notice that they refuse to answer at all.

  24. Wilkie made a strange comment in an interview this morning WTTE ‘when he went to see Crooke last week he said that he’d hardly been lobbied at all on the pokies proposal’.

    Did the Govt actually undertake to convince the other independants and he had to do nothing himself?

  25. Dan Gulberry @ 5478
    I took it that way but then I think it was Frank who implied it was something else.
    Issue closed as far as I am concerned.

  26. Their ABC once again running an old picture and unflattering picture of Gillard that they keep on dragging out whenever they want to show her in a bad light.

    If I was the PM this alone would be enough to make me sack the entire board and management and rewrite the ABC’s charter.

  27. [That was great… However labor is the one with hundreds of questions on notice that they refuse to answer at all.]

    Are those the questions being asked by Limited News, the Parrot and the whimsical troupe of dad’s army parodies AKA the noalition?

  28. confessions

    Therefore Crook did not vote for the carbon price, mining tax, nbn, and not forgetting he would not support changes to the Migration Act. Obviously Wilkie failed to get him on board.

  29. Thanks Leone. I see they are quoting Wilkie as saying there is a prima facie case the PM never intended to honour the deal. What? This guy worries me – a loose cannon.

  30. victoria – Being that pokies are said not to be an issue in WA I’d expect he’d want a real ‘something’ for his electorate that he could publically ‘claim’ in return for voting in favour.

  31. Lynchpin

    As I have said over the past few days, Wilkie is fully aware that the coalition are not interested in any reforms at all. The govt is pursuing reform. He should just shut up now. He is really starting to look foolish

  32. Lynchpin

    [One Issue Wilkie is now irrelevant isn’t he?]
    Unless Slippery Pete slips or Thommo hit the merde or some mp has “helath problems”. At which stage they may regret burning this particular bridge.

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