Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

  1. [I haven’t read anything in the OO on this issue]
    Ok, so I named the wrong paper. It is still believing everything you read.
    I have to say you seem to be more conerned about being associated with reading the OO than the issue itself.
    As far as your well placed source is concerned, there have been many such sources with a finger in the pie that have been wrong before. ‘Grain of salt’ material in my book.

  2. don @ 5390
    Do have a listen to that Breakfast item I linked to.

    If people in places like that are on board with the NBN then the govt has a great issue to fight on.

    Agree with all your stuff about satellite latency. Did a thesis on it when I Studied communications Engineering. And yes, the speed of light is still the same regardless of the brilliant thoughts of Alan Jones and other gurus. 👿

  3. William, I object to K’s comments at 5386.

    That being said, I think there is an extraordinary amount of dishonest rhetoric issuing forth on this topic. I went back to the productivity commission report at 5354 to highlight the fact that Labor’s claims it has stuck to the PC recomendations on poker machines are false. They have selectively quoted one recommendation in isolation, itself only partly implemented, and ignored all the other ones they have walked away from. This is not credible discussion, just spin first and then, as per K’s 5386, resorting to denigration when you can’t prove my point.

    Whether Wilkie’s tactics have been wise or not doesn’t change the main point. Labor has NOT introduced the PC’s recommendations, except for one partial measure. Hence the IMO resonable conclusion, that Labor caved in. Not admitting it adds dishonesty to weakness. If the only way you can win an arguemtn is to bully anyone who points out when your position is flawed, you deserve to lose.

    Off to work for me. Have a nice day, most of you.

  4. By “that comment” of course, I mean Desert Fox’s 4410.

    I would be more than pleased to see my 5386 go at the same time.

    If 5386 goes but 4410 doesn’t, then William really is a hypocrite.

  5. bobalot

    Seems after yesterday’s allegations you and I are inextricably linked now and thanks for your support.

    If you are interested in joining the ALP call the office of either your State or Federal Member if they are ALP reps and ask what branch covers your suburb. They should be able to send you a membership application form or at least direct you to someone who can.

  6. DavidWH,
    Yes, the idea is that the pokies industry will take loss, in fact the higher the loss the better. It is exactly the same principle as reducing the profits of drug dealers (except drug dealers have more ethics, at least they don’t pretend their product is just bit of harmless fun).

    The compensation is for running the trial, there will be no compensation if it applies to everyone.

  7. DavidWH @ 5400

    Good morning comrade! 😉

    Maybe you are not factoring in the fact that from beginning of 2013 all poker machines must be manufactured with the pre-commitment capability. So there will be some replaced in the normal course of events.

    I would also suggest that if pre-commitment is implemented universally, then no group of clubs can claim to be at a particular disadvantage against others and claim compensation on that basis.

  8. Kerse:

    Politicians of all stripes get called all kinds of stuff here. However, I think it’s different when referring to other commenters. We are responsible for maintaining civility here.

    PS: the best thing to do with provocateurs like Desert Fox is to scroll by. Responding only encourages them.

  9. [‘Grain of salt’ material in my book.]

    Gee, you must be very well placed then.

    My concern is with the issue itself, and the politics of it. I agree with the Govt’s response – I think to follow Wilkie completely would have made life very difficult for many Labor MPs.

  10. Socrates you are welcome to join me when I visit my mother on Thursday. I am following the recommendations from bemused and victoria.

    My take on posters who resort to personal insult is twofold. Firstly it’s best just to ignore and continue to state your view without fear or favour and secondly the insult generally says more about the person making the insult than the person being insulted.

  11. [Whether Wilkie’s tactics have been wise or not doesn’t change the main point. Labor has NOT introduced the PC’s recommendations, except for one partial measure. Hence the IMO resonable conclusion, that Labor caved in.]
    IMO you can only say they caved in if they’d said it is no longer our policy to instigate changes. They are going down a path leading to such changes. Some people want it done yesterday, I get that but the politics doesn’t allow that.

  12. Socrates objects.

    To be fair, he objected to Desert Fox’s initial comment that sparked this (actually, of course, it was William’s unaccountable failure to delete the offensive comment- even when reminded of it- that sparked this).

    So Socrates did the right thing, and then got kicked for it. Perhaps he’ll learn something.

  13. MTBW
    Just letting you know that I think Frank was well out of line.

    Frank, you owe both MTBW and Bobalot an apology.

  14. Seems after yesterday’s allegations you and I are inextricably linked…

    Yes- you both “slip in” clubs’ propaganda…

  15. [victoria
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink
    Thanks mari.]

    Twitter back to normal now, the way it is going will probably “overload” again soon

  16. from link posted earlier today:

    1. No confidence motion?

    2. Probably on the money in terms of self-interest/preservation for the independents…

    [Given that the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, is likely to test the waters with a no-confidence motion when Parliament resumes in a fortnight, Wilkie stressed he was not interested in bringing the government to an early end, a move that would also end his relevance.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wilkie-blow-not-lethal-for-labor-20120122-1qc9d.html#ixzz1kEYRrXu4

  17. [Gee, you must be very well placed then.]
    Well I don’t accept the word of any journalist that puts in their article ‘a source’. That well placed source could be the bloody cleaner standing near someone who said something. Until I know who we are talking about the it is very much ‘grain of salt’ material.

  18. [Are you suggesting that no PC finding can be implemented without the agreement of the affected industry?]

    Socrates – no, I realise they have to be independent. Just seems a shame that the fight began with the Clubs before a trial could be held.

  19. Puff and bemused my interest is that it likely highlights the disinformation that has been bandied about from all sides. It probably means the real industry lies somewhere between $360 million suggested by one party at a high estimate and $3.5 billion suggested by another party as a modest estimate.

    Us poor mugs get sold so much spin it’s hard to make any kind of informed comment based on the poor level of rhetoric spun by politicians and self-interest groups. We really are tyring to have rational discussion in the absence of reliable information.

  20. bemused @ 5395

    I will look it up. I’m still a bit weary, as far as I can see the NSW Labor Right still control state Labor and have not seemed to have learned anything from the disastrous State election.

    BTW, I notice nobody has apologised for their false sock-puppet allegations. I didn’t expect any better. I hope these are not the types of people who populate the Labor party.

  21. DavidWH @ 5414

    Socrates you are welcome to join me when I visit my mother on Thursday. I am following the recommendations from bemused and victoria.

    Your mother must be a remarkable woman, you are coming along well!

    With your current rate of progress I expect you will be a card carrying member within 6 months 😀

  22. william

    ta for that info re the 18-25 cohort

    with only 64% odd enrolled

    the gvt needs to get smart and enrol these buggers

    It would only cost a coffee and of course the use of a smartphone

  23. [My concern is with the issue itself, and the politics of it. I agree with the Govt’s response – I think to follow Wilkie completely would have made life very difficult for many Labor MPs.]
    Difficult? it was suicidal. Can you imagine what the pokie crowd, the MSM and the Libs would have done with Wilkies policy adopted at the next election? Gillard may have saved some skin, I doubt it though she would still have been classed as a liar over the carbon tax and Labor in NSW and Qld woud be thoroughly rat shit.

  24. These are not politics and might be some of the reason Twitter is not ‘playing the game’.

    (Background – Shane made a comment last week about cyclists in Melbourne that drew a Twitter storm. Then on Friday or Saturday he had a problem with a Qantas flight and messaged ‘QantasPR’ 3 or 4 times getting increasingly frustrated with their response. It took a ‘while’ for him to understand that the ‘QantasPR’ that he was messaging was a ‘fake’ and they were winding him up … – about a ‘brazillion’ messages taking the ‘p#ss are the predictable result)

    [OttillyOttilly
    @QantasPR @warne888 Pissing myself… Warnie you’re an imbecile!
    5 hours ago

    RupertMurdochPRNot Rupert Murdoch
    Furious Shane @Warne888 falls for @QantasPR parody after airline loses luggage. Gotta watch those fake PR accounts http://twitpic.com/8accwk
    6 hours ago

    AlanJoyceCEOFake Alan Joyce
    Hey @warne888, go easy on the interns at @QantasPR. They’re doing the best they can. The cyclists really enjoyed the day out today too.
    7 hours ago

    Lycra_LoonyMark Beaconsfield
    The cyclists of Melbourne would like to thank @Qantas for delaying @Warne888 return. Also, losing his bag was a nice touch.
    8 hours ago

    QantasPRQantas PR
    We’ve left @warne888 stranded in Perth. Melbourne cyclists, it’s now safe to ride your streets.
    15 hours ago]

  25. Kersebleptes @ 5416

    The difference between you and Desert Fox is I (and I hope others) expect better from you.

    That is intended as a compliment.

  26. Gary,

    I think some are also using the alleged backdown to propagate a far wider agenda focussiing on the total abolition of Pokies.

    The Government is intrested in best addressing problem gambling problems yet preserving the jobs of thousands of pub and club employees. Of course the Government will always fail any self interested bleat from the wowsers.

  27. Kersebleptes @ 5419

    Seems after yesterday’s allegations you and I are inextricably linked…

    Yes- you both “slip in” clubs’ propaganda…

    The inner grub emerges again.

  28. Good Morning, Bludgers,

    Glad to be here after coming within inches of a head on crash on the narrowest of bridges after a car overtook a cyclist.

    It only takes one idiot and its lights out.

    On a brighter note it is back to school today for QLD cherubs. I am doing a happy dance as I get my time back. (I do miss them, though).

    Whilst on my cherub run I was confronted by three can do cars advertising his particular brand of bullshit. The race may not have been officially started but the games have begun.

  29. bemused,

    Once William does what he should have done yesterday, all will be sweetness and light.

    But I have to say, I think that he is deliberately keeping it there. He had the chance when he first logged on yesterday; I reminded him about it politely last night when he was there. Yet it remains.

    Not good enough by half.

  30. From the LA Times…
    [If South Carolina politics are known as nasty, than wordsmiths might have to invent an even stronger word for Florida politics this year as GOP candidates sweep into the state and try to break ahead of their opponents. Vicious perhaps? Super nasty? Nasticious?

    The tension was evident at a rally for Rick Santorum Sunday afternoon in the parking lot of wing restaurant where Ron Paul and Santorum supporters battled each other over who could hold their signs higher, people sat in front of giant posters warning voters that Mormons worship false Gods…

    As Santorum spoke, rogue Ron Paul supporters infiltrated the rally with Ron Paul 2012 signs and handwritten posters that read, “How do you reconcile warmongering with your Christian faith?”…

    Santorum was introduced on stage by controversial African-American Rev. O’Neal Dozier, who has warned followers about the threats posed by Mormonism, Muslims and gay people, and whose hairstyle could only be described as Afro-Pompadour….

    Conolly, who appeared to be wearing pastel pink silk pajamas, said she remembered Gingrich as Speaker of the House, and that he was “tremendous,” and that Santorum was “okay.” It’s Mitt Romney that she truly doesn’t like. “Christians and Jews shouldn’t vote for Romney,” she said.]

    http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-santorum-starts-florida-campaign-20120122,0,4925567.story

  31. [Difficult? it was suicidal. Can you imagine what the pokie crowd, the MSM and the Libs would have done with Wilkies policy adopted at the next election? Gillard may have saved some skin, I doubt it though she would still have been classed as a liar over the carbon tax and Labor in NSW and Qld woud be thoroughly rat shit.]

    So, overall, the Govt’s response was a good result in your view?

  32. SK

    Thank goodness you are okay. The other day my sister and her family were returning from a trip to NSW. They witnessed the afternath of a double fataility on the Princess Highway, which apparently happened after a police chase. Terrible.

  33. DavidWH @ 5424

    Puff and bemused my interest is that it likely highlights the disinformation that has been bandied about from all sides. It probably means the real industry lies somewhere between $360 million suggested by one party at a high estimate and $3.5 billion suggested by another party as a modest estimate.

    Us poor mugs get sold so much spin it’s hard to make any kind of informed comment based on the poor level of rhetoric spun by politicians and self-interest groups. We really are tyring to have rational discussion in the absence of reliable information.

    There is Canadian experience indicating far lower costs than the clubs bleat about. Check out the report last week on 7.30 here: Canada provides example of pokie reform

    Conversion costs are currently around $2,000 per machine but in volume would reduce to about $1,000. How many poker machines are there in Australia? You do the maths.

  34. Lynchpin

    Tim Costello admitted the other day that the NSW mps were being targetted viciously by clubs Australia.
    The reality all around the world is that vested interests hold the true power

  35. The Govt has not caved in.
    They are implementing that part of the productivity review’s recommendations that the parliament will approve.
    There is no point implementing all the recommendations as they won’t be passed.
    Pretty simple really.

  36. victoria,

    It seemed to have no impact on the offending driver. He blamed the cyclist although he had done nothing wrong and there were a stack of cars in front of the cyclist so I don’t know what he thought he was going to achieve.

    He told me I was a f*wit for being there. Considering I was exactly where I needed to be by law, I haven’t a clue what his deranged brain had in mind.

  37. Bobalot @ 5425

    BTW, I notice nobody has apologised for their false sock-puppet allegations. I didn’t expect any better. I hope these are not the types of people who populate the Labor party.

    Dan Gulberry did… sort of.

    Frank and others of course remain unrepentant.

  38. [So, overall, the Govt’s response was a good result in your view?]
    Politically, yes. They were on a hiding to nothing in the very states they needed to hold. JG’s personal standing is shot anyway. How would upholding her promise to Wilkie have improved it? According to many she still lied about the carbon tax and Laurie’s trick in the last election had it’s desired effect.

  39. SK

    There is an enormous amount of trust involved by everyone travelling on the roads. We expect that everyone does the right thing to protect themselves and others on the road. Unfortunately, this commonsense does not always prevail, and bad things happen

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