Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The all-too-brief New Year polling respite has come to an end with the first Morgan face-to-face poll of the year, covering a sample of 934 from the regular weekend survey. It records only minor shifts on the last poll of last year, which combined the results of the weekends of December 10/11 and 17/18: Labor up half a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition up two to 45 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent. Where Labor achieved parity on the previous-election preference method in the last poll, this time the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5. When respondents were asked how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition’s lead was 54-46, up from 53.5-46.5. As always with Morgan over the past year, this result is strangely favourable to the Coalition. One should further query the utility of any poll conducted at this time of year – my intuition is that the absence of holiday-makers from their homes would bias such a poll towards Labor, although I don’t have any actual data to back that up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. Gussy! The Federal Parliament was in Melbourne right up to 1927

    Melbourne has a city has had an interesting city reaching its peak in the late 1880s as the second richest city in the British Empire. the only city in Australia to ever be richer than New York.

    Melbourne has come along way during the past 20 years, it still has the best

    Sporting venues
    Best architecture
    Best cultural institutions

    And is home to some of this countries leading Universities

  4. [Esperance beaches are better.]

    And the diving is superb. So long as you like it deep. 30m vis on a bad day. 40 – 50m on a good one out in the islands.

    Went there once with a friend from Europe and had a drive along the beach out to Cape LeGrande. She made me stop so she could take photos of this magnificent beach, with no-one on it. Reckoned her mates back home would not believe it otherwise.

  5. [1998
    deblonay

    Re China and Iran
    _______
    Actually the Chinese have big some deals going with Iran in construction and such,

    The Tehran Metro is being enlarged on a massive scale with Chine assistance.
    They are also helping in growing the infrastructure in the gas industry,and Iran is now linked to the Central Asian Rail system which now flows into China by several routes

    As well they now conducted all business(about 30million dollars P.A) in their two currencies thus cutting out the US Dollar
    This is a new Chinese ploy…they recently persuaded Japan and Argentine to trade in local curriencies rather than the US $ How long before they ask us to do that..]

    Well, they already are. Fortescue Metals are paid in Yuan for iron ore. But this is of symbolic importance, as the Yuan still get converted into other currencies in HK. In spite of everything, Yuan are still not legal tender in the Pilbara. The Chinese are making a political statement more than anything else – voicing a protest against the monetary policies of the US. It does raise an interesting area though – which is when will the USD no longer be viable as a reserve currency? One thing is for sure, it will not be replaced by either the Yuan or the Yen.

  6. Melbourne a former capital
    ______________As was pointed out here,Melbourne has the title “Former Capital”…a rank it shares with St Petersburg,Rio and Calcutta and I think Philadelphia
    There is a book out recently recently called “Capital” looking at the 27 years it enjoyed that title
    The first Federal parliaments sat in the splendour of the State Parliament and there is also the ensemble of great structures left from the great wealth of the 19th century..The Exhibition Building/Parliament/The Princess Theatre/The Windsor Hotel/and many great Town Halls like Fitzroy and the Melb. Town Hall/the two cathedrals/the lovely Public Baths in Carlton,and a host of lavish banks in the CBD,all built in the 19th century..It also had the world’s largest cable tramway system(and still has one of the world’s largest tram systems )with hundreds of cable cars like those of San Francisco.
    In the 19th century it must have been viewed as we view some where like Dubai…in a single lifetime a huge city built from the proceeds of gold

    John Bentjeman,the great UK authority on British-Victorian cities ,said that the finest example of all was not to be found in the UK but was Melbourne.

    A noted late 19th century english journalist,Augustas Sala,visited Melbourne several times and coined the phrase…”Marvellous Melbourne,…the describe the city to his readers
    Indeed he spoke so much aout it after the long journeys there and back ,that a friend,the famous Oscar Wilde,was forced to say..”Yes we know it’s marvellous,Augustus,but it’s rather a long way from town”
    Oddly it now estimated that the current population growth will see Melbourne regain it’s status as Australia’s largest city from Sydney,in the middle of this century…not a great thing in many ways,but inevitable given the inflow of people to Melbourne

  8. 2003
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    I should add that Melbourne & Victoria has produced more giants of Australian politics than NSW.

    Yes, quiye the case. Who would not admire Billy Snedden more than Billy MacMahon? Though, in fairness to NSW, Snedden was born in WA.

  9. Indeed, it’s hard to think of a greater Victorian than Billy Snedden…..unless we count the immortal John Curtin:

    [Curtin is credited with leading the Australian Labor Party to its best federal election success in history, with a record 55.1 percent of the primary half-senate vote, winning all seats, and a two party preferred lower house estimate of 58.2 percent at the 1943 election, winning two-thirds of seats.[15]

    One important legacy of Curtin’s was the significant expansion of social services[16] under his leadership. In 1942, uniform taxation was imposed on the various states,[17] which enabled the Curtin Government to set up a far-reaching, federally administered range of social services.[18] These included a widows’ pension (1942),[19] maternity benefits for Aborigines (1942),[20] funeral benefits (1943),[21] a wife’s allowance (1943), additional allowances for the children of pensioners (1943), unemployment, sickness and Special Benefits (1945),[19] and pharmaceutical benefits (1945).[18] Substantial improvements to pensions were made, with invalidity and old-age pensions increased, the qualifying period of residence for age pensions halved, and the means test liberalised.[18] Other social security benefits were significantly increased, while child endowment was liberalised, a scheme of vocational training for invalid pensioners was set up, and pensions extended to cover aborigines.[22] The expansion of social security under John Curtin was of such significance that, as summed up one historian,

    “Australia entered World War II with only a fragmentary welfare provision: by the end of the war it had constructed a ‘welfare state’”.]

  10. In addition .. oher Vic P.M.s
    ________
    Curtin was certainly the greatest of all Victorian born politicians,but Gough
    Whitlam was also born in Melbourne,though spent his politiical career in NSW
    Hawke was born at Bordertown ,and Scullin near Ballarat.

    Gillard represents a Vic seat
    Alfred Deakin one of the greatest of all “small-L Liberals “was a Victorian too
    One must include Menzies and McEwan of course and Harold Holt and Gorton and earlier Bruce… and Malcom Fraser…a Liberal in the Deakin tradition
    All told there have been 10 Vic PrimeMinisters

  11. Poroti – http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/01/12/morgan-face-to-face-54-46-to-coalition/comment-page-39/#comment-1126597

    “Whilst European history over east apparently started with Jimmy Cook, or for the more “enlightened “, Abel Tasman, in Sandgropia we have place names used today dating from centuries before.Like Rottnest”

    Mmmm. Vlamingh named Rottnest in 1696. Maatsuyker Island on the other hand, was named by Tasman in 1642.

    I’d better shut up now, before the Queenslanders start mentioning the Duyfken, or Luis Váez de Torres, or one of the other Johnny come latelies who made it here a few tens of millennia after the place was really discovered! 😉

  13. Watched the channel 7 news this morning, the News Bimbo said the “Gillard flew to Tasmania to have urgent talk with Wilkie about pokie reform” and somehow concluded that “pokie reform was all but over” even though neither party disclosed the specifics of the conversation or the outcome. I used to watch the news on ABC of a morning before they started their Fox news lite service, when the concept of news was confused with “I’m going to waffle partisan shite for an hour with no evidence”. So I switched to 7 on the basis that at least I could extract the news from the shite, but its getting almost pointless, I think I’ll just wait for BK to post his morning roundup, that way at least I usually get a chuckle. 🙂

  14. http://tinyurl.com/7gjfuol (click google link)

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/state-debt-blows-out-40-per-cent-as-borrowing-spree-comes-under-fire/story-e6frgczx-1226244932453

    Australian’s front page story re State Govts’ debt. Giving debt issue a push by other means.

    [State debt blows out 40 per cent as borrowing spree comes under fire
    by: ANNABEL HEPWORTH and CHRISTIAN KERR
    From: The Australian
    January 16, 2012 12:00AM

    NSW and Queensland are slipping behind in tax competitiveness as they also spearhead a borrowing spree that will see state debt blow out more than 40 per cent by mid-2015.

    An analysis by the The Australian of the mid-year budget updates finds state and territory net debt is forecast to surge by more than 40 per cent from $129 billion at June this year to $183.7bn in 2015 to fund infrastructure upgrades and spending on health, education and other services, while their net financial liabilities – which also include liabilities from superannuation schemes for public servants – are forecast to rise from $302bn to $352bn over this time.]
    More in the article.

    Also see editorial
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/debt-rise-shows-need-to-reform/story-e6frg71x-1226244849598

    Related article
    http://tinyurl.com/88nwcrm (click Google link)

    [Inefficient taxes here to stay without incentives to premiers
    by: Judith Sloan
    From: The Australian
    January 16, 2012 12:00AM]

  15. Morning all – yep, missing BK’s morning chuckles already, Smaug.

    We tuned to ABC only to hear LibsRUs Clarke agreeing with the sidekick that just like the Italian ship the pokie negotiations are ‘on the rocks’. Grrr!! The talking heads are so clever at knowing exactly what goes on behind every closed door.

    We switched off.

  16. Morning

    Pokies reform as reported in the HS and The Age this morning

    [INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie concedes he may need an Opposition MP “of good heart” to cross the floor to ensure the success of controversial Poker machine reforms]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/poker-machine-reform-bill-may-need-an-mp-to-cross-the-floor/story-fn7x8me2-1226244913652
    POKIE reform MP Andrew Wilkie has brushed aside doubts about the government’s commitment to tackle problem gambling, saying reforms will materialise.]

    [

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/wilkie-confident-pokie-reform-still-a-sure-bet-20120115-1q1c9.html

  19. http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/12608304/crook-set-to-join-pokies-talks/

    [Crook set to join pokies talks
    ANDREW TILLETT CANBERRA, The West Australian Updated January 16, 2012, 3:10 am

    WA Nationals MP and key crossbencher Tony Crook says he is willing to take part in the debate about poker machine betting limits after crunch talks yesterday between Julia Gillard and Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie.

    ……………

    Mr Crook, who thanks to WA’s poker machine ban is the only crossbencher not threat- ened by a club backlash, said he was open-minded and willing to talk.

    “I certainly haven’t formed a solid view on it,” Mr Crook said.

    “I appreciate gambling is an addiction.”

    He noted most WA clubs seemed to be able to serve their communities well without need- ing pokie profits. “WA governments have done a good job controlling gambling,” he said.]

    More in the article

  21. if u click on the mercury, u will see the reason
    is. that mr wilkie. said he will not give them wtte. a running comentary

    says. if course t he headlines 1 dollar bets off, perhaps they only read headlines, like the papers want you to
    as u sail past in your car, read their banner s,, which are becoming old news, now with the internet.

    before u eat your. weetties

    o and we got an upgrade for our cricket ground also

  26. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Why is Sen Xenophon trying to create a wedge between Wilkie and the Govt over Pokies Reform when there is NONE according to Wilkie #auspol
    now

  28. [BK has gone to Fremantle for the week to do some work. He is already being missed!]
    To quote :monkey: Noooooooooooooooo

    That means I’ve got to troll through the MSN crap and try to extract the news myself? I think I’ll put my head in a bucket and ignore the media until he gets back.

  30. [Why is Sen Xenophon trying to create a wedge between Wilkie and the Govt over Pokies Reform when there is NONE according to Wilkie]

    It is possible that Xenophon is suffering from relevance deprivation now that he has lost power in the Senate since the Green swamp.

  31. [A SYSTEM of “perverse” financial incentives under Medicare is causing the Australian health care system to haemorrhage billions of dollars each year, a medical expert says.

    In a scathing article for the Medical Journal of Australia published today, GP Dr Tony Webber has described the Medicare scheme as a “monster”.

    “I estimate that $2 billion to $3 billion are spent inappropriately each year,” Dr Webber writes.

    As former chief of the Professional Services Review – set up to police Medicare – he said he gained insight into how dysfunctional the system had become.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/perverse-incentives-cost-medicare-up-to-3bn-a-year-claims-gp/story-e6frf7jx-1226244951423

  32. Rod Hagen

    [Mmmm. Vlamingh named Rottnest in 1696. Maatsuyker Island on the other hand, was named by Tasman in 1642. ]
    Yes bad choice of Dutch sailor to illustrate. Should have said Hartog or Houtman re W.A. Qld would probably take the place name prize with Janzoon and Cape Keerweer (1609)

  33. Thanks Victoria. The only other real story (if you can call it real at this stage) is the Medicare rorts claim. Run in The Age, also The Australian & West Australian

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/medicare-rorts-cost-3bn-20120115-1q1fy.html

    [Medicare rorts ‘cost $3bn’
    Kate Hagan
    January 16, 2012

    MISUSE of Medicare is costing Australians up to $3 billion a year because of inadequate safeguards against rorting, the former head of the body charged with overseeing it says.

    In a scathing critique published in The Medical Journal of Australia today, Dr Tony Webber says Medicare has become dysfunctional and is ”a scheme based on the honour system” and ripe for abuse by unscrupulous practitioners. Dr Webber was director of the Professional Services Review, established to ensure Medicare payments were made appropriately, from 2005 until resigning late last year.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/health/health-rorts-run-rampant-billions-lost/story-fn59nokw-1226244887600

    [‘Health rorts run rampant, billions lost’

    by: Adam Cresswell, Health editor
    From: The Australian
    January 16, 2012 12:00AM

    THE former head of Medicare’s watchdog body that aims to sniff out rorting and overservicing has attacked the health system and the federal government’s reforms to it, claiming billions of dollars are misused every year and bureaucrats show no interest in ending the waste.

    ………..

    Dr Webber’s spray has inflamed tensions with the peak doctors’ group, the Australian Medical Association, which last night accused him of plucking figures out of the air and of implying the entire profession was no better than its rotten apples.

    AMA president Steve Hambleton said Dr Webber’s style and language were overblown, and he had not previously heard any suggestion that the safety net — set up as catastrophe insurance — had been used to cover cosmetic treatments, let alone highly controversial genital procedures for non-medical reasons.

    “The safety net has been fantastic . . . I know there’s misuse of the safety net, and I think that’s unfortunate, but we certainly support it because in many cases it has done exactly what it was intended to do,” Dr Hambleton said.

    “As director of the PSR, he was looking at a very small percentage of the profession, and it appears he has extrapolated that to the broader profession.”]

    The Australia’s coverage is more complete for getting having more extensive quotes of the reaction.

  34. Leroy

    I have linked the HS version of the medicare story. Agree that the Oz is more comprehensive in reporting other points of view

  35. I am hoping andrew wilkie puts up a press release, his web site is the best place to see what HE actually says
    with out the internet our forebears, where certainly in the dark just relying. on papers

    poor old journalists must feel like blacksmiths or worse in the dying days of the horse and buggy

  37. You wonder if Xenophon has done some sort of deal with Abbott & the Liberals, and he really wants Wilkie to bring down the government?

  39. ,The Age tells us Who, What, When, Where and How:

    [Man killed by BMW in Toorak tragedy
    JANE HOLROYD 6:24am Malvern Road closed as pedestrian dies, another left critically injured.]

    In Frankston it would have been a Commodore.

  41. The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Why is Sen Xenophon trying to create a wedge between Wilkie and the Govt over Pokies Reform when there is NONE according to Wilkie #auspol
    now

    Its *look at me stuff* Finns, em tasol.

    Wilkie said last night on ABC TV News that X wasn’t up to date with developments and that he was very happy about progress and commitment of the Government.

    BTW – Am a happy owner of a Asus Prime 🙂 🙂

  44. It could be a bit of strategy victoria but I saw Wilkie, in his interview, as standing up for himself. He is politely telling x that it is he, now, that holds the real power on this issue.

  45. Leroy wrt Sandi Logan, “she” is actually a “he”. The Aus went so far as to run a story about him. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/emigre-in-the-eye-of-the-storm/story-e6frg6z6-1226235953697

    He’s a master of the selectively quoted statistic. Loves trumpeting things that he reckons make the department look good while ignoring any that don’t. Tends to be abusive on twitter at times when the negatives are also pointed out to him.

  46. As former chief of the Professional Services Review – set up to police Medicare – he said he gained insight into how dysfunctional the system had become.

    It always amazes me when *former chiefs etc* come out after they leave positions where they might, just might have been able to do something about the things they are now complaining about.

    Still, the media report may not be conveying the full or accurate story either 🙁

  49. Xenophon is the complete media tart.

    He is about to be interviewed on local ABC Melbourne to talk on how Wilkie may have been “dudded”.

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