GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has produced a sobering result for the government, ending a recent trend in their favour by lurching from 53-47 a fortnight ago to 57-43. Labor is down two on the primary vote to 30 per cent with the Coalition up four to 48 per cent, and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. Bizarrely, Julia Gillard has nonetheless surged ahead as preferred prime minister, a distinction no poll has offered her in quite some time. Gillard is up a point to 40 per cent, with Tony Abbott down five to 35 per cent. Gillard and Tony Abbott have recorded identical personal ratings of 34 per cent approval and 55 per cent approval: Gillard is up four and down five respectively, with Abbott steady and down two.
Today’s Essential Research also had a move to the Coalition, albeit within the margin of error. Their two-party lead was up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions found support for the mining tax up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; the number of respondents thinking it likely a Coalition government would bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and opposition to exporting uranium to India at 45 per cent and support at 30 per cent. However, there was a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.
Two other polling details I had neglected to mention previously. The Galaxy poll of Queensland conducted late last week found 36 per cent support and 56 per cent opposition for selling uranium to India, and 64 per cent support and 28 per cent opposition to gay marriage. Last week’s Nielsen poll found support for gay marriage at 62 per cent support (up five on a year ago) with 31 per cent opposed. On the Australian-US relationship, 24 per cent believed it was too close, 71 per cent about right and 3 per cent not close enough.