Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has produced a sobering result for the government, ending a recent trend in their favour by lurching from 53-47 a fortnight ago to 57-43. Labor is down two on the primary vote to 30 per cent with the Coalition up four to 48 per cent, and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. Bizarrely, Julia Gillard has nonetheless surged ahead as preferred prime minister, a distinction no poll has offered her in quite some time. Gillard is up a point to 40 per cent, with Tony Abbott down five to 35 per cent. Gillard and Tony Abbott have recorded identical personal ratings of 34 per cent approval and 55 per cent approval: Gillard is up four and down five respectively, with Abbott steady and down two.

Today’s Essential Research also had a move to the Coalition, albeit within the margin of error. Their two-party lead was up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions found support for the mining tax up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; the number of respondents thinking it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and opposition to exporting uranium to India at 45 per cent and support at 30 per cent. However, there was a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Two other polling details I had neglected to mention previously. The Galaxy poll of Queensland conducted late last week found 36 per cent support and 56 per cent opposition for selling uranium to India, and 64 per cent support and 28 per cent opposition to gay marriage. Last week’s Nielsen poll found support for gay marriage at 62 per cent support (up five on a year ago) with 31 per cent opposed. On the Australian-US relationship, 24 per cent believed it was too close, 71 per cent about right and 3 per cent not close enough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,167 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. If Labor has done a deal to Slipper the oppos, they should call par’lt in and get the vote done quick and clean before the oppos can start to undermine, coax or cajole Peter Slipper into changing his mind.

  2. Phil Coorey

    The Liberal MP, Peter Slipper, is likely to become the next Speaker of the House of Representatives after Labor’s Harry Jenkins resigned this morning, shocking the Parliament on its final sitting day for 2011.

    Labor MPs will be asked to approve Mr Slipper’s nomination at a special caucus meeting scheduled for 10am.

    If Mr Slipper gets the nod from Labor MPs, and enough independents as expected, it will change the fine balance of the hung parliament because Tony Abbott will lose two numbers on the floor.

    That would be because Mr Slipper would be taken from the floor, meaning the Liberals would lose a vote, while Mr Jenkins would return to the backbench, giving Labor an extra vote.

  3. Barrie Cassidy says the government would be making a mistake going for Slipper. He says the coalition would go all out on allegations over Slipper and the government would wear all the damage. But I don’t think that trumps getting an extra MP on their side.

  4. Toorak Toff

    I agree with you on Harry Jenkins I loved him and his humour in the chair.


    If TLM’s theory is correct as I suspect it is will your gratuitous attacks on Rudd cease?

  5. Another unhappy response

    [chriskkenny Chris Kenny
    Gillard has done a sleazy deal with the devil here. Will end in tears…eventually. #auspol
    5 minutes ago]

  6. Why was Rudd grinning like the cheshire cat yesterday in QT?
    Because the deal with Slipper, that he’d brokered, had been done?

  7. TH
    [Slipper as speaker and Harry to the back bench – does that increase Labor’s vote x 1?]

    Yes. Breathing space at last, and not having to grovel to the likes of Wilkie or Bandt when they have the other indies locked in.

  8. MTBW

    What “gratuitous attacks”?

    If you instead mean whether I will continue to disapprove of Rudd’s leaking to his press gallery mates and undermining the PM, then the answer is no.

  9. Crabbies doom and gloom,
    adamjacobbryant Adam Jacob Bryant
    @annabelcrabb I think JG would have to be careful here so as not to enrage the indy’s? she still needs them doesn’t she #jenkins DANGER!

  10. Shanahan was just on Hadley – who for the first time sounded crestfallen – telling Hadley and listeners that this was a cynical conspiracy from Labor to shore up their own numbers.

    Labor, apparently, has been found guilty of parliamentary tendencies by News and 2GB.

    Who’d a thunk it?.

  11. fess,
    I actually do not want pressure for pokie changes to relax, this is about the chance we will ever have to address the problem.

  12. Just took a look at the results from the last election in the seat of Scullin. The voting figures are presented below. The primary votes are in the left column and the other column is the percetage of the vote each candidate got.

    STRATOV, Ivan Family First 4,226 5.32
    JENKINS, Harry Australian Labor Party 49,310 62.12
    SEKHON, Gurm Australian Greens 6,702 8.44
    WILLIAMS, Max Liberal 19,142 24.11

    The 2PP was
    JENKINS 72.25
    WILLIAMS 27.75

    So on those figures even a 20% swing wouldn’t make Tone PM.
    I get the impression someone’s done their homework on this.

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