GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has produced a sobering result for the government, ending a recent trend in their favour by lurching from 53-47 a fortnight ago to 57-43. Labor is down two on the primary vote to 30 per cent with the Coalition up four to 48 per cent, and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. Bizarrely, Julia Gillard has nonetheless surged ahead as preferred prime minister, a distinction no poll has offered her in quite some time. Gillard is up a point to 40 per cent, with Tony Abbott down five to 35 per cent. Gillard and Tony Abbott have recorded identical personal ratings of 34 per cent approval and 55 per cent approval: Gillard is up four and down five respectively, with Abbott steady and down two.
Today’s Essential Research also had a move to the Coalition, albeit within the margin of error. Their two-party lead was up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions found support for the mining tax up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; the number of respondents thinking it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and opposition to exporting uranium to India at 45 per cent and support at 30 per cent. However, there was a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.
Two other polling details I had neglected to mention previously. The Galaxy poll of Queensland conducted late last week found 36 per cent support and 56 per cent opposition for selling uranium to India, and 64 per cent support and 28 per cent opposition to gay marriage. Last week’s Nielsen poll found support for gay marriage at 62 per cent support (up five on a year ago) with 31 per cent opposed. On the Australian-US relationship, 24 per cent believed it was too close, 71 per cent about right and 3 per cent not close enough.
Oh, look, Libbots!
What a wierd poll
zoidy,
We’re a weird mob, as Nino said.
How Obama failed to support Gillard
On Climate Change
____________________
This intesting piece from the SMH is very critical of Obama and much of his rhetoric
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/all-style-no-substance-and-fantasy-adds-insult-20111120-1np8a.html
From the end of the previous thread I repost that it is 366 days until section 59 cannot be used on the Clean Energy Future Legislation.
I think I shall do a countdown.
Sort of fits in with Mumbles post the other day that suggested a movement in the 2PP trend back to the Coalition, but a probable improvement for Gillard in PPM
[
If we can discern a trend it’s been heading back to the Coalition recently. But the commentary, which we might call a lagging indicator, reflects last fortnight’s data. And of course the Obama visit.
It is very foolish to predict individual polls. But for people who think better PM is important, that measure has been trending back to Gillard recently and was a statistical dead heat 39 40 last week. So—how can I put this—it would be surprising after this week if Gillard wasn’t comfortably ahead again as better PM on Tuesday.
But an improvement in voting intentions from 47 53? Let’s wait and see.
]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/after_the_obama_visit/
1. Obama obviously isn’t as popular even in Australia as we might have thought, so his supposed charisma didn’t rub off on the Gillard Government.
2. Julia either looked nervous around him, or she was like the fawning schoolgirl with the huge crush – didn’t play well with the voters.
3. Treating Kevin Rudd like dirt doesn’t go down well in voter land.
What are the chances that this might be a rogue ?
High party polling, poor leader ratings.
#killingseason
Oh, and a bad newspoll to top off a night of great DRAMA here on Poll bludger. All my prayers have been answered.
I always find it funny that for such a bunch of news limited haters, you all give news exactly what it wants by slavishly devoting yourself to its newspoll releases as if they are insights handed down from the gods themselves.
It is just a single opinion poll. It doesn’t mean jack. None of them ever do. Not on their own anyway. It isn’t worth getting yourselves all excited over. It doesn’t deserve the ridiculous micro-analysis you are all giving it.
Just chill out and relax. Maybe try turning off your PCs and your TVs and doing something meaningful with your lives for once.
Oh well, at least its heart warming for News Corp. 😉
[What are the chances that this might be a rogue ?]
Mumble showed a trend back to the coalition the other day.
Not a rogue.
Foreign policy makes the PM look in charge, but people care about domestic issues. Could help explain why approval rating can go up even when TPP goes the other way.
Amazing result although the swing against Abbott, there wasnt really a swing to JG, is understandable. The Coalition needs a Kevin07.
This is a strange poll result. So do the voters want Julia Gillard to lead the Lib/Nats coalition?
Also possible that because the QANTAS thing has been less in the news lately, some have already forgotten about it.
Well I am flabbergasted but pleased that it is still 2 years.
I am wondering whether the media brainwashing has done the trick to the ‘parties’?
Or is it a rogue, going against trend.
A 4% jump is unusual. Need a couple more, at least, for the trend.
LLL -how come you read it then?
[Also possible that because the QANTAS thing has been less in the news lately, some have already forgotten about it.]
That’s my interpretation. Industrial relations in the news, Labor goes up. Industrial relations out of the news, Labor goes down.
If it has to be one or the other, I’d prefer to be ahead on PPM. 2PP will improve with policy implementation.
Doesn’t Gel with the past polls, that have been showing an incremental shift back to the Government, and with the Governments performance in the past fortnight. Especially as compared with that of the COALition.
There’ll be quite a lot of IR in the news in the next few weeks and months. That Qantas bit on Late Line was very interesting.
Thornleigh Labor Man@7
1. Obama may not be wildly popular, but he is not unpopular. At the very least his visit ought to be vote neutral.
2. This does not explain how her personal approval rating held steady while Abbott’s dropped.
3. Forget about KR already! He is not some sort of national sweetheart.
What did Labor do that caused this shift? So voters dislike TA yet like what the Coalition did over the past fortnight, which was diddly squat and no different from any other fortnight? Can I spell R-O-G-U-E?
So is this the poll jump the Opposition usually gets when the rAbbott goes to ground?
[William Bowe
Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:00 am | Permalink
Also possible that because the QANTAS thing has been less in the news lately, some have already forgotten about it.
That’s my interpretation. Industrial relations in the news, Labor goes up. Industrial relations out of the news, Labor goes down.
]
Viictorian Nurse’s Dispute a factor – ie Nurses defying FWA ?
I am wondering whether the media brainwashing has done the trick to the ‘parties’?
I’m wondering the same too. Some Liberal spinner at the tail-end of the previous thread said, “This is an unpopular government.” The fact of the matter is: this is a good and effective government that is facing the most one-sided, hostile media in the English-speaking world. You could have the best government on earth, but pit those sort of odds against it and it would struggle to be even marked as acceptable by the brainwashed, sleepy sheep.
It is now 365 days until the Clean Energy Future legislation is beyond the reach of section 59.
[gordongraham Gordon Graham
last week, there was a moment when I felt Australia was going to get caught in a hailstorm of shit between the USA and China #auspol
13 seconds ago]
[Some Liberal spinner at the tail-end of the previous thread said, “This is an unpopular government.” The fact of the matter is: this is a good and effective government that is facing the most one-sided, hostile media in the English-speaking world.]
Still unpopular though.
A contrived, manipulated and engineered unpopularity.
Frank,
The nurses dispute is too local, I believe to have this affect.
One thing’s for certain: Abbott isn’t getting rolled next week, as was confidently predicted all last week on this forum LOL
The most surprising thing for is that Gusface was wRONg. 😉
[Viictorian Nurse’s Dispute a factor – ie Nurses defying FWA ?]
The punters are 100% behind the Nurses over here Frank
[Can I spell R-O-G-U-E?]
Try R-O-U-G-E, as being Liberally applied.
[Diogenes
Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:05 am | Permalink
The most surprising thing for is that Gusface was wRONg.]
Only 10% off the gap this time Dio….Gus appears to be getting closer to the mark.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:05 am | Permalink
One thing’s for certain: Abbott isn’t getting rolled next week, as was confidently predicted all last week on this forum LOL
]
You forgot Labor was in Front when they dumped your beloved Kevvie.
History can and does repeat itself.
[A contrived, manipulated and engineered unpopularity.]
The big danger now is an avalanche of contrived, manipulated and engineered votes.
Isn’t this the penultimate Newspoll for the year ?
So whats the bet that the next NP will ‘miraculously’ end up as 45-55 2 pp ?
Is there an OO report yet?
Well, stuff it, change the nation anyway and let the voters shove popularity up their kybers. I would rather be remembered for making things better in the long term than whether anyone liked me.
2nd last Newspoll for the year as I understand it.
Labor and the PM have received pretty good across the board press the last few weeks and even The Australian have been questioning Abbott’s lack of substance. I don’t believe you can blame this result on a biased press.
It’s a bit confusing.
[The big danger now is an avalanche of contrived, manipulated and engineered votes.]
…starting with Qld very soon.
nothing online in any News Ltd paper
[DavidWH
Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:10 am | Permalink
Labor and the PM have received pretty good across the board press the last few weeks and even The Australian have been questioning Abbott’s lack of substance. I don’t believe you can blame this result on a biased press.
It’s a bit confusing.
]
Both the ALP and The Greens lost 2% each
Still 2 years till the Poll that Counts. Next year is the year that the momentum will swing, big time
[A contrived, manipulated and engineered unpopularity.
The big danger now is an avalanche of contrived, manipulated and engineered votes.]
You’re not seriously suggesting that the voters / their perceptions are not being manipulated?
I put it to you that on a fair and even media playing field – newspapers, talk radio, public broadcaster – the polling positions would be dramatically reversed to what they are now.
Frank, reminder of the last Newspoll before Rudd was dumped as leader:
ALP 52
Coalition 48
A 14 point lead to the Coalition is the best this Gillard/Swan administration can come up with, in a fortnight that was supposedly going to mark the end of the Abbott regime?