Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has produced a sobering result for the government, ending a recent trend in their favour by lurching from 53-47 a fortnight ago to 57-43. Labor is down two on the primary vote to 30 per cent with the Coalition up four to 48 per cent, and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. Bizarrely, Julia Gillard has nonetheless surged ahead as preferred prime minister, a distinction no poll has offered her in quite some time. Gillard is up a point to 40 per cent, with Tony Abbott down five to 35 per cent. Gillard and Tony Abbott have recorded identical personal ratings of 34 per cent approval and 55 per cent approval: Gillard is up four and down five respectively, with Abbott steady and down two.

Today’s Essential Research also had a move to the Coalition, albeit within the margin of error. Their two-party lead was up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions found support for the mining tax up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; the number of respondents thinking it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and opposition to exporting uranium to India at 45 per cent and support at 30 per cent. However, there was a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.

Two other polling details I had neglected to mention previously. The Galaxy poll of Queensland conducted late last week found 36 per cent support and 56 per cent opposition for selling uranium to India, and 64 per cent support and 28 per cent opposition to gay marriage. Last week’s Nielsen poll found support for gay marriage at 62 per cent support (up five on a year ago) with 31 per cent opposed. On the Australian-US relationship, 24 per cent believed it was too close, 71 per cent about right and 3 per cent not close enough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,167 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  2. [Labor and the PM have received pretty good across the board press the last few weeks and even The Australian have been questioning Abbott’s lack of substance. I don’t believe you can blame this result on a biased press.]

    Labors image has been tarnished by a long and sustained brainwashing of over a year. As a lagging indicator, the electorate has only responded to the ‘leaders’ aspects of the polling.

    The meme that this is a bad govt has been entrenched and will take more than a few good weeks to undo.

  3. DavidWH,
    It will take more than a few weeks of good press and Abbott getting a couple of wet celery stick floggings to reverse the damage the MSM has done.

  5. [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    Frank, reminder of the last Newspoll before Rudd was dumped as leader:

    ALP 52
    Coalition 48

    A 14 point lead to the Coalition is the best this Gillard/Swan administration can come up with, in a fortnight that was supposedly going to mark the end of the Abbott regime?
    ]

    And what is the current 2PP again ?

    And Note Abbott’s PPM numbers – and therre are rumblings in the Lib Camp.

    But your facade at being pro labor is just that – a facade.

  6. [The big danger now is an avalanche of contrived, manipulated and engineered votes.]
    Well, some heads of state do have 110% approval. Maybe Murdoch …

  8. [I put it to you that on a fair and even media playing field – newspapers, talk radio, public broadcaster – the polling positions would be dramatically reversed to what they are now.]

    Do you think the trend away from the ALP in the last fortnight is due to bad media coverage for the ALP over the last fortnight?

    Say what???????

  11. [Do you think the trend away from the ALP in the last fortnight is due to bad media coverage for the ALP over the last fortnight?

    Say what???????]
    This polls a rogue, any poll with movement this large, for no real justification, has to be a rogue

  13. [Do you think the trend away from the ALP in the last fortnight is due to bad media coverage for the ALP over the last fortnight?]

    Labor has had good media the last fortnight.

  14. [This polls a rogue, any poll with movement this large, for no real justification, has to be a rogue]

    Its the mirror image of the dramatic shift from 57-43 to 53:47 in October.

    Today’s poll is much closer to the trendline for the last 2 years than the last couple of Newspolls actually (they are more likely to be the outliers/or more accurately they probably overstated the slight trend back to the ALP with a good month).

  15. Mod Lib – what the media assumed was good coverage wasn’t. Various reasons, but mainly foreign policy don’t count, in fact changes scare people. Domestic issues do. Will still need to wait until late 2012 to see those bedded in.

  16. [Joyce needs to ground QANTAS again.]
    Lateline revealed that Qantas made their decision days before Joyce said they had. He mislead a Senate committee.

  17. This is an unpopular government,however, one who’s leader had a good few weeks basking in the global spotlight and actually looking pretty prime ministerial for once.
    Sorry people just not like this government or labor all that much. They don’t like Abbott much either.
    It has been 15 months since the last Election today you gotta stop the two years thing real soon.
    BTW the Greek, Italian, Irish, Spanish governments etc passed hundreds of bills through their respective parliaments and “So what”. I would prefer better legislation than rubbish and this governments legislative achievements are up there with the achievements of Kevin Rudds like 20/20 summits, Grocery Watch, Fuel watch, Health revolutions etc .The partisans here forget all the many, many failures but the public have not and are just waiting until one Saturday night in 2013 to get that change of government.

  19. Mad Lib, your so-called “Liberal” party would be an irrelevant minor party, or even extinct, if it had to compete on a level media field. It operates, and can only prosper in, a sheltered workshop situation.

  21. [Mod Lib – what the media assumed was good coverage wasn’t. Various reasons, but mainly foreign policy don’t count, in fact changes scare people. ]
    I think it is wrong to tr to perfectly align different factors with changes in the polls.

    I find this poll hard to believe because changes in leadership questions don’t normally move in the opposite direction to changes in party support.

  22. The google trick with The Australian articles no longer works. I can have the rare pleasure of reading Shanahan’s thoughts at work tomorrow (we get the papers).

  23. [Labor has had good media the last fortnight.]

    thats what I was saying…

    The Queen, CHOGM, my hero Obama, critiques of Abbott (again with my full support)….you can’t ask for more than that. Its just that the electorate have made up their mind, now we just need to wait for the opportunity to express it (ala NSW).

  24. It is as if the voters waded into the stream but got a bit skittish and dashed back to the shore for a while. They are feeling better about the leader but the journey is a bit scarey, They have been walking on the stony ground following Abbott, but crossing the stream to Gillards pastures is a bit worrying.

  26. [Lateline revealed that Qantas made their decision days before Joyce said they had. He mislead a Senate committee.]

    But will much be made of this? Unlikely. 🙁

  27. [Cuppa
    Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:21 am | Permalink
    Mad Lib, your so-called “Liberal” party would be an irrelevant minor party, or even extinct, if it had to compete on a level media field. It operates, and can only prosper in, a sheltered workshop situation.]

    Cuppa:

    My Liberal party has delivered lower unemployment, lower inflation, higher real wage rises, and most imoportantly, higher economic growth than your ALP for the last 4 decades on average.

    You can’t blame the media for the economic indicators.

    Could it be that you have a pro ALP bias perhaps?

  28. [Labor has had good media the last fortnight.]

    Relatively speaking. Hateradio has been as virulent in its propaganda onslaught (that is networked into virtually every market from SA to NQ) as ever. Their ABC is no more balanced than it has been for years.

  30. [Its just that the electorate have made up their mind, now we just need to wait for the opportunity to express it (ala NSW).]

    I don’t think you can conclude that at this juncture, and from this one poll.

  31. [Its the mirror image of the dramatic shift from 57-43 to 53:47 in October.]
    Not really. The 53:47 was in the context of the Government actually passing legislation (the CEF), so there was something to justify the 3% shift.
    This poll, however, there has been nothing from either side to justify the swing.
    I think that the earlier Essential Poll, which went from 53:47 to 55:45 is closer to the truth.
    All previous polling up to now has shown an incremental shift to Labor, so a slight shift backwards (as Essential shows) was to be expected. As a “breather” as it were, before further movement towards labor next year.

  33. http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-calls-for-calm-over-slipper-challenge-20111121-1nr0e.html

    [Abbott calls for calm over Slipper challenge
    November 22, 2011

    THE Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, is urging the Queensland Liberal National Party to show restraint amid a growing push for a quick preselection challenge against the federal Liberal MP and Deputy Speaker, Peter Slipper.

    Mr Abbott and others in the Liberal Party feel that if Mr Slipper loses his preselection, he may quit the party and sit on the cross benches, costing the Coalition a precious vote in the finely balanced Parliament.]

    More in the article

  39. FRom Poss:

    [

    PollyticsPossum Comitatus

    Last Newspoll came in at 53 when it was 54.5 – now comes in at 57 when it’s 55. But quick – let’s fap off a narrative! o_O

    32 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  40. I’m just amused that all of the confident predictions of 52/48 or 51/49 or even a Labor lead didn’t come to pass – what happened to Gusface’s “impeccable source”?

  41. [My Liberal party has delivered lower unemployment, lower inflation, higher real wage rises, and most imoportantly, higher economic growth than your ALP for the last 4 decades on average.]

    Is that all you’ve got? Discredited myths that you bring up again and again as your only justification? Piss off with your spin. Your party did nothing to attain those conditions. It just happened to be in the right place at the right time. it rode on the tails of the huge reforms of the Keating/Hawke era PLUS a huge global boom PLUS a huge domestic resources boom.

    When your spin mob was in office during unfavourable international conditions (late 70s/early 80s) it presided over Australia’s worst recession since the Great Depression and Australia’s only ever instance of the Trifecta of Misery:

    – double-digit unemployment
    – double-digit interest rates
    – double-digit inflation

    … all at the same time. And debt and deficit that climbed steadily year after year.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070627-Why-John-Howard-never-made-the-cover-of-Euromoney.html

  43. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/pm-picks-up-but-still-awaits-pardon/story-fnahw9xv-1226201785718

    [PM picks up but still awaits pardon

    by: Niki Savva
    From: The Australian
    November 22, 2011 12:00AM

    Increase Text Size
    Decrease Text Size
    Print

    PERHAPS that long walk along death row prompted it, but there has been a discernible change in Julia Gillard. Her performance and her strategic handling of issues have improved.

    After 18 months of flailing and flopping, the looming prospect of execution forced her to smarten up. She is perkier. Hosting high-voltage celebrities, being spared the drudgery of everyday domestic politics and dealing with a well timed, if unresolved dispute also helped.]

    The rest is behind the paywall.

    For a shift like this, I’d expect more OTT articles. Maybe they think its too big to be the true shift? That, or they’re just tired of pushing an early govt fall & Tony, so the hysteria has gone out and we can have more measured analysis.

  44. [george

    Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    James J, I would agree with that
    ]

    Poss in that tweet says pretty much the same thing and this:

    [PollyticsPossum Comitatus

    @

    @vanOnselenP Are you serious? NP went from 1.5 under the underlying LNP TPP vote to 2 points over in a cycle and you’re having a fapathon?

    31 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  45. [My Liberal party has delivered lower unemployment, lower inflation, higher real wage rises, and most imoportantly, higher economic growth than your ALP for the last 4 decades on average.]

    LOL – thanks for the laugh Mods

  47. [I’m just amused that all of the confident predictions of 52/48 or 51/49 or even a Labor lead didn’t come to pass – what happened to Gusface’s “impeccable source”?]

    Wouldn’t crow to hard buddy, you were massively out on your prediction last time

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