Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [The idea that minor party voters shouldn’t comment on major party platforms is completely invalidated by th exhaustive preferential voting system]

    I don’t know where you get this idea from because nobody has suggested this.

    [but the point needs to be made that to say “if you don’t like the policy, then don’t vote for them” might be a good comeback under OPV, FPTP or other systems, but in Aus it just doesn’t cut it. ]

    It’s highly appropriate. Last election I was able to abandon a years-old habit of preferencing the Greens by putting the party way down the ballot just ahead of the Liberals because I did not approve of their position on the CPRS. If we’d had OPV I would’ve done the same thing.

  3. I note that on the PBS Newshour on relay from the US on SBS TV this afternoon, the US President’s visit took up the first 15 minutes of the progarmme, with some extensive footage of the various press conference’s yesterday. This flagship public broadcasting news and current affairs show is one of the most respected in US media, and their guest commentators (in stark contrast to the partisan hacks we would be subjected to on the equivalent programmes here) were balanced and informed, without any of the bombast and self importance we see from talking heads on the tabloid ABC.

    Would that our public broadcaster could fulfil it’s charter by providing such a quality news and current affairs offering for us.

  4. On US political news, see this…

    http://capitoilette.com/2011/11/15/oakland-mayor-jean-quan-admits-cities-coordinated-crackdown-on-occupy-movement/

    [Posted on November 15, 2011
    Oakland Mayor Jean Quan Admits Cities Coordinated Crackdown on Occupy Movement

    Embattled Oakland Mayor Jean Quan, speaking in an interview with the BBC (excerpted on The Takeaway radio program–audio of Quan starts at the 5:30 mark), casually mentioned that she was on a conference call with leaders of 18 US cities shortly before a wave of raids broke up Occupy Wall Street encampments across the country. “I was recently on a conference call with 18 cities across the country who had the same situation. . . .”]

    Actually the Mayor admitted to the conf call but not co-ordinating the crackdowns, although it’s likely they did.
    There’s more, then check out one of the comments which I thought interesting in its own right…

    [Catzmaw on November 15, 2011 at 12:44 pm said:
    I don’t think it’s any coincidence that they waited until Obama was gone before acting. It had that “while the cat’s away” flavor to it. I also think it’s utterly appalling that Michael Moore, self-appointed speaker for OWS, openly speculated that Obama must be behind this debacle without a shred of evidence in support, and since then has failed to retract or apologize for his statement. Moore has decided – the way only a rich, privileged, white guy can – that Obama lacks “blackness” and has chastised him for it, and this accusation of his can only be interpreted as an attempt to take votes away from Obama and give them to his new BFF Ralph Nader. A hopeless, futile exercise, but Moore apparently subscribes to the theory that what we need to do in this country is assure yet another Republican Presidency because that way everyone will learn how to vote for a “real” progressive the next time around. Being rich and privileged he doesn’t actually have to worry about the immediate impact of such a result on ordinary people.]

  5. leonie:

    I had though the anti-CT mob were supposed to be protesting today. Instead what few of them did turn up were outnumbered by the ‘Yes We Cannabis’ protesters.

    Love it!

  6. [The USA may wish to become more relevant in the world’s fastest growing market, but it is playing catch up. The fact is, the USA is not competitive in Asia.]

    Soc, USA is not competitive because its infra-structures are basically pre-WW2. One generation behind Japan, Korea and 2 generations behind China.

    Yes, we do live in a very interesting time, especially if China GNP does become No: 1 in the next 5-10 years. If and when that happens, USA will be traumatised with the shock and awe.

  9. shiftaling @ 3297

    The major parties have forced anyone who wants their first preference to count to select either Lib or Labor at the end of the day, and it’s a system which largely benefits them.

    Absolute rubbish!

    It has precisely the opposite effect by allowing voters to indicate their preference for a minor party (and incidentally direct public funding to that party) without their vote being wasted as they then get a chance to choose what they may regard as ‘the lesser of the evils’.

  10. Boerwar 3299

    You have just explained in more detail what I said earlier: there was nothing in Obama’s speech, or the US position, that advanced Australia’s national interest in any way.

    Those who think it is wise to go along with the military “experts” should remember the jokes about military intelligence. Not to mention historical parallels with Singapore…

  12. [The Australian Nutters and Fruitcakes Party aka the Australian TEA Party and that anti-carbon tax mob appear to be following their American Rebublican counterparts and disappearing up their own fundaments]
    It’s a Thursday, of course nobody turned up!

    They’re all far too busy supporting their local junior sports association by putting their pensions through the pokies while complaining to all who listen how they can’t afford to put food on the table thanks to this do nothing government with their carbon taxes and pokie reforms (after all noone gets to win a big jackpot and get their pension back if you can only bet a dollar)

  14. confessions –
    It seems the anti-tax mob couldn’t maintain their rage for one week, let alone sustain it until the next election. Seeing as most of them are well over 60 maybe they just forgot the rally was on.

  16. The Big Ship
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 5:52 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/11/13/nielsen-55-45-to-coalition/comment-page-67/#comment-1089174

    [I note that on the PBS Newshour on relay from the US on SBS TV this afternoon, the US President’s visit took up the first 15 minutes of the progarmme, with some extensive footage of the various press conference’s yesterday. This flagship public broadcasting news and current affairs show is one of the most respected in US media, and their guest commentators (in stark contrast to the partisan hacks we would be subjected to on the equivalent programmes here) were balanced and informed, without any of the bombast and self importance we see from talking heads on the tabloid ABC.

    Would that our public broadcaster could fulfil it’s charter by providing such a quality news and current affairs offering for us.]

    It’s not that long ago that the ABC delivered quality on a par with any program by any public broadcaster on earth.

    That’s before the right-wing culture warriors were deployed to trash the institution from within and dumb down its output such that now, practically nobody, left or right, respects it any more.

  20. Finns 3306

    I suggested that (China overtaking USA by around 2020) a few years ago on this blog and some here scoffed at me then. (not wise dolphins 🙂 ) But all we know of current trends says that is exactly what will happen.

  21. [Congratulate me … I blocked my first twitter troll!]

    jen, i just ignore them and they go away without the attention, a bit like Evan2GB really.

  23. Soc, as per usual, USA, like John Wayne, is parading around its military muscles.

    Whereas China has been quietly parading its economic muscles in Africa, SEA, South Asia and South America. At the end of the day, people gotta eat.

  25. leone
    [They also talked about … similarities between America’s and the Liberal-National coalition’s policies on tackling climate change.]

    Did Abbott write it all down or was it just his usual fib?
    (Remembering this seems to be Abbott’s take on what they said, not Obama’s)

  29. [mari
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    Have just come in, any reports on what Tony A and Julie B asked the President on climate change, like they were baosting they were going to do to the media? Couldn’t see anything reported, all I saw was 2 good speeches JG and BO and a very partisan one from TA ]

    If you saw, or get a chance to see, Obama’s speech to parliament in its entirety, have a look at the camera work when Obama moved into his stride on climate change and the urgency for action.

    For some reason the camera went directly on Abbott as Obama was at the peak of it. The look on his face was very similar to his moment with Mark Riley.

  30. China’s real strength
    __________________
    A US economist recently pointed out that US military might counts for little against the vast Chinese holdings of US dollars…many trillions…that’s real power !!

    If only a small portion of those were sold in a bloc on the world’s currency markets tomorrow, then the US dollar would take a big dive within hours,and the price of oil to the USA would rise and all other imported items.
    The Chinese can afford to be fairly calm about the US muscle flexing.. The US being .like some rather brainless body-builder

  31. Poor Julia, I feel sorry for her, the only time she smiles is when there is someone from the USA in the room. I wished her parents had migrated to the USA, for her sake. She would be so much happier where Men/People have real Guns and thinking is very suspect.

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