Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [DavidWH
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 4:14 pm | Permalink
    What happens if war breaks out in the monsoon season?

    Perhaps US soldiers don’t work in the rain.]

    Depends where it’s raining. They seemed to work ok in the rain on Guadalcanal. We did too, on Kokoda and in Milne Bay.

    Neither of us did so will in Vietnamese rain.

  2. We are now experiencing the early stages of a monumental realignment of political and economic power and influence in the world. Contrary to some, I do not believe that Europe, the United States and Japan are in absolute decline either economically or politically. However, the rise of the “emerging economies” means that, in relative terms, the balance of power is shifting slowly but steadily as if propelled by an unstoppable force.

    I was in China earlier this year when they held the conference of emerging economies (China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa). While these individual countries may have little in common, and may indeed exhibit mutual mistrust, they all aspire to massive economic development and the accompanying political influence. Moreover, there are various other countries that are sufficiently large (either in terms of natural resources or population) that are potentially more powerful but are currently hamstrung by totalitarian, corrupt or ineffective government, control by elites with a master-slave mentality, constant useless warmongering and other impediments to progress.

    While China is the most dramatic example of progress (think of the era of Mao compared with today) we can consider the “emerging economies” mentioned above as well as future contenders such as Argentina, Mexico, parts of the Middle East, parts of the African continent, Indonesia and so on. Some of these countries will see development based on natural resources while others will develop their populations into a dynamic resource.

    What does this mean for Australia and more particularly for political leadership in Australia? Recognise that the world order is changing. Let “globalisation” be your friend and not your enemy. Promote responsible trade and financial arrangements. Think and act to promote the interest of Australia in a globalised economy. Take responsible action to address global warming in Australia (as per the new legislation) and use Australia’s good reputation as an honest broker on the world stage to encourage others to do likewise.

    Most importantly, renounce those things which favour a small minority to the disadvantage of the big majority – crazy economic theories, financial skullduggery, media dishonesty and the like.

    For what it is worth, I believe that the results of the US Presidential and Congressional elections in November 2012 will have a measurable influence on politics and perhaps voting intentions in Australia. Should Obama win a second term and the Tea Party influence on the Republican Party Congressional members wane, then we could see less extremest tendencies on the conservative side of politics in Australia.

  4. [Then don’t preference the ALP either. You should structure your ballot according to the parties/candidates who advocate policies you support.]

    confessions, you know as well as he does, there is not any choice on this front. The Liberals are even greater lapdogs than Labor to the yanks.

  6. Have just come in, any reports on what Tony A and Julie B asked the President on climate change, like they were baosting they were going to do to the media? Couldn’t see anything reported, all I saw was 2 good speeches JG and BO and a very partisan one from TA

  9. [confessions, you know as well as he does, there is not any choice on this front. The Liberals are even greater lapdogs than Labor to the yanks.]

    Independents? Minor parties?

    There are other options apart from just the major parties.

  10. Ignoring the political aspects 2500 troops and increased air/naval activities will equal $10’s if not $100’s of millions poured into Darwins economy.
    The post about Abbott looking older before, I think the guy has so committed himself to becoming PM, emotionally, financially and politically that if he doesn’t achieve the goal then he will be screwed. We has literally bet the house on it. I’m not surprised he looks older. If he fails, and I think it might be starting to dawn in him, there will be no going to the back bench with any credibility.

  12. Citizen

    [For what it is worth, I believe that the results of the US Presidential and Congressional elections in November 2012 will have a measurable influence on politics and perhaps voting intentions in Australia. Should Obama win a second term and the Tea Party influence on the Republican Party Congressional members wane, then we could see less extremest tendencies on the conservative side of politics in Australia.]
    I think you are spot on with this assessment. The way the repubs are going very hopeful that President will get reelected, my friends in the USA are hopeful but not confident

  13. Interesting points citizen and I believe you’re right.

    The days of the cold war bi-polar world are fast disappearing.

    I think it’s high time we recognised this and got with the program. We’re a developed, stable, rich democracy in exactly the right part of the world to make a big difference and do very well indeed out of the changing power-structures if we play our cards right.

  16. [ReachTel automated phone poll of 341 respondents in the Queensland state seat of Stretton has the LNP leading 67.4-32.6 – a hard-to-credit swing of 27 per cent.]

    I think they just lost all credibility, Stephen Robertson will not lose Stretton in a fit.

  17. Couldn’t agree more Smaug – the longer this goes on the better Julia is looking – positively glowing with good health – thriving in fact – and all without a bicyle in sight!!

  19. [Stephen Robertson will not lose Stretton in a fit.]

    I think he’s retiring ru.

    Still 27% is massive. That’s the sort of swing you get where a “family values” candidate is caught in sodomy with a vicar.

    Seems awfully dodgy to me.

  20. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Politically speaking, PM Gillard has snatched that centre-right position from Tony Abbott. Gillard 10 Abbott 0 #auspol
    13 seconds ago

  21. From this morning’s Herald Sun, so before Parliament speech. Silly title but decent summary of issues. Phillip Hudson is one of the News Ltd straighter arrows.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/no-doubt-obama-and-our-pm-are-just-nuts-about-each-other/story-e6frfhqf-1226197362005

    [No doubt, Obama and our PM are just nuts about each other
    by: Phillip Hudson From: Herald Sun November 17, 2011 12:00AM

    AT one of her first face-to-face meetings with Barack Obama soon after becoming PM, Julia Gillard said to the leader of the free world: “Are you nuts?”.

    It could have been a monumental diplomatic blunder from the woman who admitted foreign policy was not her passion. But Obama didn’t see it as an insult. He considered her disregard for foreign affairs double-speak refreshing.

    The two leaders have discovered they share a similar sense of humour and political outlook, and a surprisingly strong personal relationship has blossomed between the Australian Prime Minister and the President of the United States.

    They are like-minded left-of-centre politicians both facing difficult domestic challenges, with Obama battling a hostile Congress and Gillard juggling minority government. And both are trail-blazers — the first black President and first female PM.]

    More in the article

  23. Thanks, TLBD.

    It’s obvious now that the reason I couldn’t see them was because the URL was truncated.

    Anyhoo, most interesting part was how similar the PM’s was the the President’s; upbeat, optimistic and forward-looking, but Abbott’s contained many negative words.

    Sums up the whole Aus polity right there, I reckon.

  28. rua if Stretton falls to the LNP the Katter Comedy Co will end up the opposition and Labor will be the opposition. I don’t believe it but with some of the bad news hitting the LNP in the past few months then I will take it.

    But it wont happen.

  34. [david

    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    mari, the way the Republican hopefuls are looking more and more absurd, it is very much better for the President I suspect]
    That is what my friends are hoping for, they will self destruct

    Did you see one of the gifts JG gave BO for his daughters was”Red Dog” I loved that movied, laughed cried and it even has an “American” in it

  36. BK:

    Not jesting. He said it looked like Ken Wyatt was standing next to Paul Henderson to greet Obama.

    Didn’t bother to explain why Ken Wyatt would be greeting the POTUS in a state he doesn’t represent in any way, shape or form.

  37. Evan2GB can start wetting himself now

    [leighsales Leigh Sales
    Just finished tonight’s interview with Kevin Rudd who confirms he was not consulted over plans to sell uranium to India #abc730
    5 minutes ago]

  38. [leighsales Leigh Sales
    Just finished tonight’s interview with Kevin Rudd who confirms he was not consulted over plans to sell uranium to India #abc730
    5 minutes ago]

    This might get a bit of movement on the “leadership” hamster wheel. Mind you, the decision to submit to ALP conference a policy change motion does not require ministerial sign off.

  39. [Just finished tonight’s interview with Kevin Rudd who confirms he was not consulted over plans to sell uranium to India #abc730]

    More hysteria! It’s a motion to national conference to be voted on by delegates. Presumably Rudd will be able to voice his views at conference.

  40. [Just finished tonight’s interview with Kevin Rudd who confirms he was not consulted over plans to sell uranium to India]

    Why would he be? Its going to be debated in Dec in the appropriate forum. National Conference topics are discussed with the FM?

  41. [Didn’t bother to explain why Ken Wyatt would be greeting the POTUS in a state he doesn’t represent in any way, shape or form.]

    Probably for the same sort of reason the whingeing conservatives are the first off the block to attend photo opportunities at the opening of BER “school hall” projects. To bask in the reflected glory that has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with them and their political type.

    Same with the Rodent attending the dinner with Obama last night. What a hide he’s got after smearing Obama in the way he did.

  42. [This might get a bit of movement on the “leadership” hamster wheel. Mind you, the decision to submit to ALP conference a policy change motion does not require ministerial sign off.]

    Right. But there’s an exception when it comes to KEVIN~!, who should see all and know all. 😉

  43. [ the decision to submit to ALP conference a policy change motion does not require ministerial sign off.]
    I’m getting a bit boring becasue I keep saying it’s not a policy yet, but the media are treating it as if it is.
    I do hope that Rudd is allowed to point that out by Sales.

  44. The announcement regarding the use of Darwin as a base for US military “rotational deployment” raises the question of cluster munitions, an issue I have posted about on a number of occasions.

    A government bill – Criminal Code Amendment (Cluster Munitions Prohibition) Bill 2010 – is currently before the senate, having passed the HoR with the support of both Labor and the Coalition.

    Analysts have found loopholes in the Bill including one that expressly allows other armed forces with whom our armed forces are cooperating to use Australian territory and infrastructure for the stockpiling, retention and transfer of cluster munitions.

    Under questioning by Greens Senator Scott Ludlam before a Senates Committee hearing in March this year, the then vice chief of the defence force, Lieutenant General David Hurley had this to say about the military interoperability loopholes.
    [Lt Gen. Hurley – There are a couple of hypotheticals in that. We are in very early stages of the force posture review discussions with United States armed forces. The nature and characteristics of the outcome of those discussions are really hard to tell at the present time, and whether that would involve any stockpiling of US explosive ordnance in Australia would be a decision far down the track. I think that would be a policy decision government would make and it would determine how it would advise the population.

    At the time Lieutenant General Hurley made these statements (he is now “chief”), it is clear he foresaw the strong possibility of foreign forces such as the US stockpiling cluster munitions in or on Australian territory, as well as subsequent demands for some form of public disclosure and accountability for the defence forces and/or Federal government.]
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/this-blog-harms/2011/11/17/theorising-darwin-us-may-stockpile-and-transit-cluster-munitions/

    As the author concludes the loopholes in the Bill were deliberate.

  45. Finns 3246

    Yes Australia’s pattern is the same as the whole of Asia. China is Australia’s number 1 trading partner, Japan 2. USA is 4th! Even South Korea is more important to us than the USA. And we have a large trade surplus with China, trade deficit with USA.

    The USA may wish to become more relevant in the world’s fastest growing market, but it is playing catch up. The fact is, the USA is not competitive in Asia.

  46. Just looked at local NT ABC twitter and the person was…

    [Barrack Obama steps onto Territory soil to be met by Paul Henderson, Julia Gillard and Bill Risk.]
    Bill is a local Larrakia leadet.

  47. [Independents? Minor parties? There are other options apart from just the major parties.]

    Confessions, the Compulsory Preferential system forces the voter to select one or the other at some point, exactly my argument for OPV a couple of days ago.

    The idea that minor party voters shouldn’t comment on major party platforms is completely invalidated by th exhaustive preferential voting system. The major parties have forced anyone who wants their first preference to count to select either Lib or Labor at the end of the day, and it’s a system which largely benefits them.

    Anyway, not trying to ignite another compulsory vs OPV battle, but the point needs to be made that to say “if you don’t like the policy, then don’t vote for them” might be a good comeback under OPV, FPTP or other systems, but in Aus it just doesn’t cut it.

  48. The Australian Nutters and Fruitcakes Party aka the Australian TEA Party and that anti-carbon tax mob appear to be following their American Rebublican counterparts and disappearing up their own fundaments.

    Today there were supposed to be rallies organised by both groups outside Parliament House at midday. The aim was to embarass Gillard and Obama through international media coverage. There was just one problem – well, two actually. The media didn’t notice and no-one turned up. Well, someone did. While Speers and Gilbert were having a post-Parliament chat on the lawn I spied, in the distance, a few sad and lonely banners. In among the ‘No US Bases’ and ‘End the War’ banners was a lone ‘Axe The Tax’ banner. A few people carrying folding chairs and wearing straw hats were wandering around, probably looking for Alan Jones, Pauline and Angry, who didn’t show up. I cannot find one media mention of any protests at all, except for a brief word on Sky News this morning about a bus full of anti-war protestors due in Canberra. It loks like the event was a fizzer, a total non-event. May they have many more just like it.

  49. So, what has been achieved in the past day or so?

    (1) We have reinforced our US client state status, reducing our options to manoeuvre in our own interests, rather than in US interests, now and in the future.
    (2) We have confirmed US soft power in Australia.
    (3) We have confirmed that we are willing to have the US military permanently in a position where it can severely damage the Chinese economy by halting the flow of Australian iron ore and coal. This will surely encourage China to speed the establishment of alternative sources of supply, potentially undermining our terms of trade and our price margins.
    (4) We have encouraged a potentially dangerous escalation in competition between the US and China.
    (5) We have encouraged those in the US who wish to stay engaged in the Asia/Pacific rather than go isolationist.
    (6) We have tilted our balance of friendliness slightly towards India which will improve relations with India but which may also serve to further encourage a Pakistan/Chinese axis.
    (7) We have reinforced a system of governance whereby critical foreign policy decisions are made without the benefit of scrutiny by parliament.
    (8) We have made it more likely, rather than less likely, that we will be forced into any war between China and the US whether we like it or not.

  50. [leone

    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    The Australian Nutters and Fruitcakes Party aka the Australian TEA Party and that anti-carbon tax mob appear to be following their American Rebublican counterparts and disappearing up their own fundaments.

    Today there were supposed to be rallies organised by both groups outside Parliament House at midday. The aim was to embarass Gillard and Obama through international media coverage. There was just one problem – well, two actually. The media didn’t notice and no-one turned up. Well, someone did. While Speers and Gilbert were having a post-Parliament chat on the lawn I spied, in the distance, a few sad and lonely banners. In among the ‘No US Bases’ and ‘End the War’ banners was a lone ‘Axe The Tax’ banner. A few people carrying folding chairs and wearing straw hats were wandering around, probably looking for Alan Jones, Pauline and Angry, who didn’t show up. I cannot find one media mention of any protests at all, except for a brief word on Sky News this morning about a bus full of anti-war protestors due in Canberra. It loks like the event was a fizzer, a total non-event. May they have many more just like it.]

    Leone you have made my night with that post, I was wondering if they turned up, the other question has anything been said about JB and TA going to ask BO about climate change as was reported this morning, they sure go to water don”t they?

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