Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 32 of 40
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  1. [http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/bishop-warns-business-on-carbon-permits-20111016-1lr5z.html

    “Bishop warns business on carbon permits”
    Julie Bishop AAP report from today’s Insiders]

    Good to know that Abbott’s outburst wasn’t an isolated thing. That this is now Liberal policy is just dumb.

  3. From the WAEC Website:

    [Note – Town of Bassendean election – owing to the closeness of the poll within the District of Bassendean, a ballot paper verification (i.e. recount) will be conducted on Sunday 16 October 2011.]

  4. [Good to know that Abbott’s outburst wasn’t an isolated thing. That this is now Liberal policy is just dumb.]

    I think they are setting themselves up for failure should they win office in 2013.

  6. confessions,

    Further, a media release about the new Greens policy was only released on Friday 14 October.
    http://richard-di-natale.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/greens-announce-pokies-circuit-breaker

    IMO, you seem to be rather demanding about turnaround times for the Greens Party, a minor party that does not have the same resources at its disposal as the two major parties.

    Your expectation that a change in policy, announced in response to changing circumstances, 😉 should appear on its web site immediately after its public announcement , regardless of an intervening weekend, imo, is somewhat unreasonable.

  7. Bernardi and the US Tea Party
    ________________________
    It’s now confirmed..what most us suspected…that Bernardi is in constant touch with.
    the extremists of the
    Tea Party in the US….and remember he is Abbott’s Parliamentary Secretary and a probably minister in in Abbott’ Govt…..
    in today”Age” Bernardi documents openly all these links with the far-right in the USA
    WOW

  8. How likely is it that business will factor in the opposition’s warnings about the permits when they are considering buying them?

  9. [Grank – how many Green seats were won as against Labor, please?]

    Sorry – that was for Frank. Just wondering if the Greens made a lot of headway or are they already well represented on Councils throughout WA, thanks Frank.

    confessions – it was interesting to hear comments on both Sky and Insiders this morning that no matter what Abbott does he will not be held responsible for it and the sooner Labor works this out the better off they’ll be.

    Forget Abbott and just govern. Think about it – if Kev had listened to BB he would never have splayed himself all over the media being sorry for the BER/pink batts.

    If Julia had listened to PB 6 weeks ago she could have led well on the AS issue by putting the High Court decision front and centre, using the Nauru is a Transit Lounge analogy everywhere and often. She could have gone for onshore processing immediate all the time and absolutely left Abbott out of any of it.

    How much shall we charge for our advice? 😉

  10. The Australian electorate does not usually like to be taken for granted, the Libs forget we haven’t voted them in yet!
    the threats to business on the carbon permits now may be a step to far for some.

  11. BH@1559

    [Sky and Insiders this morning that no matter what Abbott does he will not be held responsible for it ]
    Agree with your sentiments but when has sky or insiders ever held Abbott responsible for anything.
    He is their boy to be protected at all costs after all.

  13. [BH

    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Grank – how many Green seats were won as against Labor, please?

    Sorry – that was for Frank. Just wondering if the Greens made a lot of headway or are they already well represented on Councils throughout WA, thanks Frank.
    ]

    Local Govt isn’t Party Political in WA.

  14. This Morgan Poll is a total rogue and will loom pretty silly by the time the next Essential, Neilsen or Newspill.
    Core Bernardis links to US right wing organizations is totally comparable to Get Ups links to US left wing organizations. Elections are won in the centre as Julia Gillard will find out soon enough next year. By going out to the right of Tony Abbott on asylum seeker policy( as endorsed by most Poll Bludgers weirdly enough) she left Abbott a gaping hole between the left and her position. He stepped into the middle nicely thank you vey much and still cannot be blamed by the pundits.
    Personally I like Stephen Smith to takeover as he is a quality operator but being a West Australian with few seats to pick up means he may lose out to Kevin Kardashian I mean Rudd the Tv celebrity guy who could puck up half a dozen seats in our moat parochial state.
    It’s about time we went to onshore processing and stop wasting time, money and moral capital on the offshore processing garbage policy.

  15. [Pegasus

    Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    confessions,

    Further, a media release about the new Greens policy was only released on Friday 14 October.
    http://richard-di-natale.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/greens-announce-pokies-circuit-breaker

    IMO, you seem to be rather demanding about turnaround times for the Greens Party, a minor party that does not have the same resources at its disposal as the two major parties.

    Your expectation that a change in policy, announced in response to changing circumstances, should appear on its web site immediately after its public announcement , regardless of an intervening weekend, imo, is somewhat unreasonable.
    ]

    Another cop out response I see.

    THe Majors can do it in 48 hours – THe Greens on the other hand…

    And don’t give me this BS about lack of staff – THe Maors also rely on volunteeers to get their message out – and they can do it.

  16. What I can’t wait for is:

    “Pensioners will have to repay carbon compensation.”

    The Billy Tea Party pantechnecon is mad enough to do it too…

  17. Core Bernardis links to US right wing organizations is totally comparable to Get Ups links to US left wing organizations.

    What twat

  18. [gree with your sentiments but when has sky or insiders ever held Abbott responsible for anything.]

    arunta – really liked your post from last night re wanting the news to be factual and not full of opinion. I wish, I wish, I wish!

    I know they’ve never held him to account (and the hypocrisy was rife). Nothing, absolutely nothing connected with the media touches him at the moment altho I think for Albo’s comments at the end of the censure motion on Thursday had an effect on him. Abbott looked like a stunned mullet but he didn’t like to hear it.

    However, Labor just keeps getting belted because they seem to be counteracting Abbott too often. Forget him. The best work so far has been done within the minority Govt. – he is not part of that so don’t try to make him so.

    Abbott’s co-operation will never be forthcoming so if he has to be mentioned by Labor it should be in the form of belittlement and satire of his awful scare campaigns and distortions. He would hate that but it might actually penetrate the voter’s mindset.

    Ian – lovely post last night. Thanks

    Super – nice to hear you are in post-op. Hurry up and get well and get posting again.

  19. “Bishop warns business on carbon permits”
    Julie Bishop AAP report from today’s Insiders

    Meanwhile in the real world…
    “Companies unfazed by carbon tax”

    Her problem there is that most companies don’t tend to work out what they’re going to do by reading media releases and listening to soundbites. They tend to figure these things out for themselves. She may have forgotten that she’s in no position to tell businesses what to do.

  20. Stanny @1565
    Don’t know enough about left and right organisations to comment but if ever there is a challenge to Abbott I do hope Anna Nicole Mirabella wins as she next best exemplifies liberal party ideals.

  22. [Meanwhile in the real world…
    “Companies unfazed by carbon tax” ]

    there was a report on RN yesterday morning, from a bloke connected with business, who said that business has been preparing for the CT for a long time so they won’t be fazed by Abbott’s bullying and will just go ahead and buy as they see fit.

    I reckon there may be many in business who will be cheesed with the bullying and may push for Abbott to be over ruled or run out of his PM campaign if he keeps it up. Turnbull would be looking good to a lot of business people.

  23. [in the form of belittlement and satire of his awful scare campaigns and distortions. He would hate that but it might actually penetrate the voter’s mindset.]

    Some of that is already happening and the idea that ‘Abbott is a fool’ has already taken root in peoples minds.(I base this on discussions with some liberal friends..I do have some..they will never vote labor but just shake their heads in disbelief when Abbott is mentioned as the alternative PM).
    I think there is some good mileage in that.

  26. Sorry my comment 1571 the tweet from JTI is actually “you lot had better start drinking heavily now” I don’t understand it

  27. I suspect that he has info regarding latest polls , taken after carbon tax passing , AS , and continuing PM leadership bashing, which according to mumbles earlier opinion are going to be shockers..I’m only guessing and have no proof whatsoever on this , but believe his gut feeling is correct.

  28. [they will never vote labor but just shake their heads in disbelief when Abbott is mentioned as the alternative PM).
    I think there is some good mileage in that.]

    arunta – therein lies the problem. They think he is a wangker but will still vote LNP. We need them to change to Labor preferably or Greens/Indies.

  29. mari Jack is referring to the World Cup semi final NZ/Aust this afternoon, I believe..even non followers/believers are getting in the mood…being a Kiwi I will say no more 😆

  31. BOF’s action in cancelling Kristina Kenneally’s entitlements are disgusting, and reflect both vindictiveness and poor grasp of policy making. She was Premier for 16 months (Nathan Rees lasted only 15 months) and contested an election as Premier.

    I know nothing about the entitlements of other former Premiers, nor do I know whether or not any guidelines have ever been published, or if this is an instance of a “practice” developing over time without any formal procedure being implemented.

    I would have no argument with BOF if had chosen to undertake a review of all non-pension entitlements of former Premiers, developed a policy, and implemented it prospectively.

    To apply a “policy” arbitrarily and inconsistently just smacks of personal nastiness. After an electoral victory of monumental proportions, this smack of Kennetism. May the same fate befall him.

    I have met BOF in the past and he seemed a genuine and decent bloke – but this action is just disgusting.

  34. Good to see Alannah MacTiernan has made a comeback, last night winning the race for City of Vincent mayor. She is too talented a politician and woman to be on the sideline. Onya Alannah!!

  35. bh@1578
    Have been trying to convert them for years , they likewise , so we just agree to disagree…they much prefer Turnbull to Abbott , would maybe consider greens so I could do a bit more work there.

  36. The arrogance demonstrated as the Libs insist that Labor’s arrogance is killing itself slowly is really quite delicious, any rouge poll contributing to this instability is a good thing.

  38. I see that the Icelanders don’t want to repay their debts.

    So, they borrowed like crazy, and I mean like crazy. They had lots of fun with other peoples’ money. They all needed big SUVs, right? And now they don’t want repay their debts because it hurts. Nor do they want to take responsibility for running a shoddy banking system. Nor do they want to take responsibility for letting their finance industry spivs get away with financial murder.

    Poor things? Feel sorry for them? Not in my book.

    It is time for grown ups to stop behaving like spoiled brats. In the real world actions and inactions have consequences.

  39. [I see that the Icelanders don’t want to repay their debts.]

    BW, that sounds very much like Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc.

    We are in debts to our armpits and we have no intention of paying. In fact, we want to borrow MORE and MORE.

    DEBTS ARE GLORIOUS!!!!!!

  42. Boerwar,

    The Iceland situation was a lot more complicated than that. It wasn’t really about what the Icelandic people were doing at all – it was all about their banks going crazy in the pre-GFC financial nuttiness.

    ie the Icelandic banks went for big international business expansion, particularly promoting themselves as good places for deposits from British and Dutch individuals (high interest paying savings accounts), and then lending big for international property – lots to the US housing market etc.

    When the US housing market exploded in toxic hideousness, the Icelandic banks became insolvent pretty much overnight and there was (unsurprisingly) a run on them from the British and Dutch individuals who had put their savings into them.

    This basically caused an international incident, which is ongoing, although I think all the relevant depositors were covered by various governments. The issue now is those governments are demanding the Icelandic government and people pay up to recover that money (I imagine this is the money originally stumped up by the British and Dutch governments to cover their citizens’ deposits).

    So, it wasn’t about the Icelandic people being particularly profligate, “They all needed big SUVs, right?” – I don’t believe that to be the case at all. It isn’t Icelandic private debt that is at issue, it is the washup of the Icelandic banks, and, like Ireland and other countries, why the people are (justifiably) angry at being called on to suffer for bankers’ mistakes.

    ie Iceland is a microcosm for the GFC collateral damage

  45. MsAdventure

    It is! He also does “Body and Soul” with Amy Whinehouse she really can sing as well God love her. Apparently it was her last recording before she died and I think I heard that the royalities from her performance on this recording are going to the charity her family set up in her name.

  48. Hello again Bludgers.
    No Insiders for me this morning. Sounds like it was a blessing that I had committed to help with our CFS brigade cutting and splitting firewood. We got between 6 and 8 tonnes done – it’s a good way to fundraise.
    So Mesma was at her brilliant best under a withering, searching interview by Uhlmann?

  50. BK

    Well done your community. We do the same here, with firewood. And it is a great fundraiser, although it’s a tad bigger than 240 (if that was your community population I’m thinking of).

    Re Uhlmann.
    As far as I’m concerned he used to be okay but he’s so severely compromised with his wife a Labor MP. He has to go soft or he’ll be absolutely lambasted as biased. He should consider an alternate career while his wife is a serving MP.

    Any political commentator worth their salt would have taken her to task over the Oppo’s policy of rescinding the ETS and the damage they’re doing to the economy. Didn’t happen.

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