The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.
her = Julie Bishop
[So Mesma was at her brilliant best under a withering, searching interview by Uhlmann?]
Shorter Mesma, Howard was triffic, we will take you forward to 2004.
kezza
You have a good memory – we are a community of 240. We will be getting a new shed for the CFS next year but will have to largely fit it out ourselves. I’ve put together an equipment list which came to $21000. By using contacts,etc we have now got it down to $13000 which we will just be able to handle.
One wonders what else the Coalition will warn against.
Someone’s already mentioned repayment’s of pensions. Tax threshold increases would come near to that too.
How about green investment dollars? Grants given under the Green Infrastructure corporation? If it was good enough for BOF to renege on solar loans, there’s your precedent.
Look how popular BOF is! A sure winner for Abbott.
Kezza(1600) I think you atre boing a bit kind to Chris U, he is very conservative, stood I think for some election for some fringe party??? I really wonder what he and Gail Brockmann??is that right his wife talk about?
BB
The most difficult (or impossible) thing to claw back is the price increases on EVERYTHING (which Abbott has been harping on ad nauseum about). What mechanism will he have to put in place to achieve this? How will CT-specific price increases be determined? Will, under that scrutiny, be shown to be tiny (as government modelling shows)?
BK
Have you thought of applying for community grants? Actually, I’m sure you have, but my dad was a mover and shaker and spent all his remaining years lobbying the local council. And sure enough, year after year, dad’s local community got a great share of the funds.
Dad taught me well. I was able to take that knowledge to my new community and we’ve managed to lobby our local council for the funds required for all of our projects. Just a thought.
[mari
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
Kezza(1600) I think you atre boing a bit kind to Chris U, he is very conservative, stood I think for some election for some fringe party??? I really wonder what he and Gail Brockmann??is that right his wife talk about?]
You’re probably right. Was feeling kind today. It’s Sunday, isn’t it? 😆
mytbw – just loved it, thanks so much. Tony Bennett is a favourite in this house. Lady Gaga is a huge surprise. Great voice and performance to rival anyone else who’s sung it. I thought she was an airhead but obviously not.
Isn’t Tim Mathieson’s niece her makeup artist or hairdresser or somesuch?
Julie Bishop and her mates have been through the budget line by line and found they need another $71 billion just to break even.
How much is Parliament House worth? A lease back deal may be on the cards. 😉
BK
That’s on a dollar for dollar basis. Just think, you’d only have to raise another $6500 instead of $13,000.
Hello, bludgers. Last night I asked a question which sank without trace in the excitement of the W.A. local gov’t. elections. So, seeing as there are some related posts about, and BTW, thank you MTBW for the TB link, I’ll ask again.
As there may, just may, be a bit of movement back to Labor, with all the usual caveats about lets see more polls and the trend over time, and so forth, what are your thoughts on the following: Abbott’s signed in blood pledge to repeal the Clean Energy Bills, by definition creates uncertainty for business, Abbott clearly understands four fifths of FA about economics and Hockey and Robb don’t really inspire much that’s positive on this (or anything else for that matter). Could it be that “it’s the economy, stupid” may be beginning to have some effect?
good – now oz politics has settled down and become a predictable sort of thing again with labor hegemony for years to come we all can breathe deep and wait for the european tsunami to hit any day now.
I do hope JulieB never becomes PM. She has such a Miss Prim air about her and says “Julia Gillard” in a pursed mouth kind of way that is soooo condescending. The more I see of her, with her cat’s claw gestures and bitchy smile, the less I can tolerate her.
Soory if any of you are fans 🙂
kezza
Yes, we just got 30 chairs by way of grant for the CFS.
I’m also the treasurer for the community owned oval complex and we have just finished kitchen renovations with a 50% $9000 grant contribution. Also we just got $5000 from Tania Plibersick’s department for 80 chairs. The local council gives us an annual $3000 grant and pays for bore water electricity and toilet cleaning costs.
Combined with fundraising, cricket, football and tennis club fees and lots of community volunteering we just get by.
lizzie
where have you been hiding? julie bishop incognito? take tr trite trills and go dj perfumerie (sorry that is insult to the dj)
sorry lizzie zorry i read gillard for bishop sorry
The changes to the tax free threshold are a problem for the Libs. If they reduce it back to its former level 1 million people will have a tax liability they previously did not.
They will not touch it.
[lizzie
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 5:35 pm | Permalink
I do hope JulieB never becomes PM. She has such a Miss Prim air about her and says “Julia Gillard” in a pursed mouth kind of way that is soooo condescending. The more I see of her, with her cat’s claw gestures and bitchy smile, the less I can tolerate her.
Soory if any of you are fans.]
I’m no fan of anything Liberal, but JB’s such a f*cking disappointment. I gave her the benefit of the doubt for quite a while, rabbit in the headlights, terrified in front of a camera, but she makes Coonan look like a star! Enough said.
I’m a bit loathe to post this link, so it comes with a WARNING that it full of blatant mistruths. It does show however:
– how bad the Bolt show is, and why no-one watches it
– what a bad interviewer Bolt is
– what a poor performer Abbott is, even with a friendly interviewer
Abbott does reveal some more nuance about the “don’t buy permits” policy – “only buy what you need”
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/from_the_bolt_report_today6
been playing on twitter with a new avatar – see if it works here
BK
I should have known you’d know all the tricks. Good luck with raising the extra $13,000.
Have you thought of a drive-in on your oval? That seemed to raise a bit for dad’s community. Shared between the kindergarten, school, all sports clubs?
We haven’t tried it yet. Quite a few sceptics in our area still.
Jackol
I am happy with a bit of both analyses.
I was trying to make the point that the banks did not, and do not, operate in a vacuum.
In our case we got the wake up call a decade or so ago when WESTPAC nearly went bust. The subsequent reforms paid off handsomely in the GFC.
The other point I would make is that the dichotomy being accepted by quite a few PB posters banks/workers is not that simple either.
To put it in a very general way, if all the banks go broke there aren’t any workers any more either.
[I’m no fan of anything Liberal, but JB’s such a f*cking disappointment. I gave her the benefit of the doubt for quite a while, rabbit in the headlights, terrified in front of a camera, but she makes Coonan look like a star! Enough said.]
Agree, it really is the end of the world type stuff if JulieB ever just a run a Lib leadership
kezza
We’ve already got the $13000. Sitting pretty.
[Could it be that “it’s the economy, stupid” may be beginning to have some effect?]
Harry – .I hope Morgan is not too much of a rogue but we’ll see what effect the media bashing over the weekend has on Neilson and Essential on Monday. The weekend media, print and telly, has acknowledge the CT legislation passing but it’s been drowned out with AS, leadership and Cabinet leaks.
I actually hope they find out who did the leaking – was it a disgruntled RWer or a pleased as punch centre/leftie. It has to stop or they just make themselves look stupid.
BK
*thumbs up*
Finns
Assume we are all going to your place to watch the rugby semi.
Hope you’ve got enough food for us.
Thanks in advance. :kiss:
[Abbott does reveal some more nuance about the “don’t buy permits” policy – “only buy what you need”]
What! Backtracking already! The bloke has just realised that he actually doesn’t have any blood in his veins.
lizzie
And, I agree, JB defines “bitch”
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
i like to hear Darren Lockyer mutters those immortal words: “Are you from the #ABC?” #auspol
4 seconds ago
[Abbott does reveal some more nuance about the “don’t buy permits” policy – “only buy what you need”]
But Julie said business do not need to buy permits until 2015? How confusement.
These “faceless men” were, of course, the same ones who installed Rann in the job in the first place. Same for Rudd.
The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. Blessed be the name of the Lord.
[MIKE Rann says some of the so-called faceless men who ousted him as South Australian premier were also involved in the removal of Kevin Rudd.
Mr Rann hands the premiership over to Jay Weatherill on October 20 after being told by factional powerbrokers in July he was no longer wanted as leader.
He said the July confrontation by factional heads had betrayed an earlier undertaking, in which they had asked him to stay on as premier despite his desire to stand down.
“It was some of the same people involved, absolutely,” Mr Rann said, when asked whether his forced resignation was similar to that of former prime minister Kevin Rudd, who was dumped in favour of Julia Gillard.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/mike-rann-says-some-of-factional-heavies-who-outsted-kevin-rudd-got-him-too/story-e6frgczx-1226167779571
Boerwar – that’s fair enough. I agree that simply talking about supporting workers is a bit naive (sorry Wayne).
Re: regulation – I agree up to a point, but I’d also say that the notion that as individual citizens we bear any significant responsibility for any type of regulation is a bit fanciful – I know full well that I don’t really have the background or understanding to say whether any given bank regulation is “good” or “bad” or what the tradeoffs are between regulation for a stable system vs regulation killing off the ability of banks to be able to make useful loans to small businesses etc.
Similarly, saying that the Icelandic people should have been pushing their government for tighter regulation of their banks is a bit harsh – I don’t feel I should wear responsibility/credit for what Peter Costello did re: bank regulation here. I know I wasn’t marching in the streets to get the government to tighten things up.
Australia, fundamentally, got lucky. As you say we learnt some lessons from the mini bank meltdown we had. If that hadn’t happened, we probably would have been in exactly the same boat as Iceland and Ireland and the US etc when 2007 rolled around. In those circumstances would it be fair to blame the Australian people for the failure of our banks? That’s drawing a long bow in my book.
ruawake
And the smirk as she ‘confessed’ that we could all relax because by that time Libs would be in power…
[But Julie said business do not need to buy permits until 2015? How confusement.]
Rua – I heard her say that. Did she mean that they will keep the ETS and drop the CT part of it? The CT would be at its end just about then anyway. I couldn’t follow Bishop’s reasoning about the money either.
HSO @ 1612
Nice to see you are back, but jeez you ask a hard question. I’ll have a go at offering some stray thoughts:
(1) the carbon permits will be accorded statutory property rights. In other words the companies that buy them will be able to sue an Abbott Government’s arse off if they try to destroy the permits without compensation. In that sense, the permits are relatively ‘risk’ free. BUT. They represent a capital investment and really depend on growth in the world economy to appreciate in value. This is, at best, a highly unlikely scenario.
(2) It depends on the level and the shelf-life of investments. Elsewhere in PB it has been pointed out that the earliest Mr Abbott can effect changes is sometime in 2017. (Time to set up a DD, etc, etc). Management of most companies would know that investment horizons of around 10-15 years should factor in a carbon price. Companies that are looking at an investment timeframe of from now to around 2020 would have to factor in a Mr Abbott risk factor. But, even if Mr Abbott is in a position to start demolishing stuff, there is no guarantee that he will be able to do so quickly and cleanly. He will face obstruction in the Senate. The legislation has lots of mines buried in it to make it hard to undo.
(3) There is little doubt that private investments in generation capacity have stalled pending the political class sorting themselves out on the issue. I imagine that they will now start. At the very least, demand has been growing while investment has been stalling. So, even apart from the carbon price, the prices have been zooming. It will vary from company to company. AGL, for example, has invested disproportionately in renewable energy.
(4) Once the dust settles I imagine that the pressure will grow on Mr Abbott not to go back 100% on the clean energy legislation. This pressure will come from three sources, IMHO: (a) Liberal Party members who know that AGW is on and who also know that the DAP is a crock (b) bean counters who will be counting a very large cost to reverse the legislation and (c) companies who will have invested in accordance with the legislation. There is potentially a fourth, but I imagine that everyone who got anything positive out of the clean energy legislation will have to be bought off in one way or another – but see (c).
(5) I agree that Mr Abbott is an economic dill. Mr Hocky and Mr Robb would probably fiddle and meddle their way through using a mostly Dry economic rationalist approach.
My gawd why would you watch the Rugby Union I watched the wales France match after 10 min I fell asleep it was sooo Boring kind thing public schoolboys like
My Say @ 1381 mentioned her friend the physic. Laugh at me if you wish. I believe her.
While on the surface the current/ongoing political debate is about the differing ideologies of the left and right of the spectrum. I think the essence of the battle does come down to differing spiritual/religious beliefs. Organised religion has been used as a control mechanism for thousands of years. Long before the advent of Christianity, Islam Judaism and the myriad of others. Please believe me when I state that I have no interest in belittling others beliefs. The strength that we gain from the kernel of our faith far outweighs any secular arguments.
In my veiw, we are born spiritual. In fact I believe that spiritually is an inbuilt survival tool. Mankind, especially individual man, has always looked to the heavens, seeking to understand that which is within. Our fragile humanity is strengthened by our spirituality. This is the very essence of man that,imo, organised religions seek to control.
Priests, Pastors, Imans, Rabbis’ speak from their own particular pulpits of knowledge. They preach their knowledge of their faith to those who need to hear. A panacea for the faithful. The mere concept that an understanding of knowledge is the basis of wisdom seems alien to them. That such a concept is ignored and belittled as new wave. hippy bunkum is sad. Given that we are taught religion, yet born spiritual is a tragedy. Our spirituality is inherent within us and has been since the beginning of times.
When you look at the current makeup of our parliement and the affiliations to organised religions across the divide I think we’re in trouble. Sometimes living in this society gets to us all. The only save haven we have is ourselves and that place within that gives us strength and succour. We mustn’t let a parliement be controlled by idealogues.
I am not suggesting that Australia goes pagan. What I am suggesting is that the dogma some believe should not be influencing the debate or, importantly, controlling the public discourse. No matter how well it’s disguised.
We are born spiritual. We are taught religion……and that’s why I believe My Says’ physic….an awakening is coming.
As an aside;
I found it quite interesting that when Bernadi was questioned about the tea party affiliations and his Australian offshoots, as far as I can tell fundamentalist belief organisations, his only comment was wtte ” I”m not making any money out of them”. Bit of a clue there I reckon.
[Rua – I heard her say that. Did she mean that they will keep the ETS and drop the CT part of it? The CT would be at its end just about then anyway. I couldn’t follow Bishop’s reasoning about the money either.]
If business does not have to buy carbon credits what are the Libs worried about?
Channel 9 of course makes all they can out of the leaks. Repeated soundbites from Bishop and Abbott, and the newsreader claiming said leaks enhance “perceptions of a government falling apart.”‘ 9 ain’t biased at all, no way…
BH, I get so angry about the meedja these days, I try to limit my exposure as I think Himself Indoors is getting sick of my predictable rants, even though he agrees with me. It’s weird, when I first read the article on the different positions discussed on AS, I thought it interesting from the point of view of the PM finally deciding that they just could not agree with Nauru. Good, I thought. It didn’t occur to me at the time that of course this information had been leaked. Who benefits?
Anyway, I was thinking more that despite the meedja’s sterling efforts to trash the gov’t., people, particularly business, might be starting to become rightly concerned about Abbott and his team being in charge of the economy. I recall a fairly recent poll, though can’t remember just which on, that had the Libs. well in front on managing the economy, but wonder whether this may be shifting. Could be all wishful thinking on my part, of course, plus utter disbelief that any one who knew even something about the economy, would want Abbott and co. anywhere near it.
[lizzie
Posted Sunday, October 16, 2011 at 6:01 pm | Permalink
ruawake
And the smirk as she ‘confessed’ that we could all relax because by that time Libs would be in power…]
just goes to show you need visuals as well as sound!
There will be a futures market for permits as soon as the legislation passes the Senate. Abbott did say originally business shouldn’t buy future permits. Its actually a proper warning if he is 100 percent committed to reversing the legislation.
DavidWH
[Its actually a proper warning if he is 100 percent committed to reversing the legislation.]
Do you believe him?
Kezza(1608) You are a good kind person, what else can I say?
[Its actually a proper warning if he is 100 percent committed to reversing the legislation.]
Rubbish, The Govt honours contracts, like the ALP Govt honoured workplace agreements that were in place. If Abbott wants to introduce legislation that negates existing rights he deserves to be sent to Nauru, for life.
Thanks, Boerwar. I think another bludger had posted something about some business people they were dealing with had made some comments suggesting a certain degree of nervousness about Abbott and co..
On another note, the new Federal/State funding arrangements are starting to be factored into Victorian health budgets. There’s some difficulties to work through and no-one yet knows how it will effect community mental health, but it’s certainly going to be interesting, as hospital budgets are fearsome things to wrangle.
[Anyway, I was thinking more that despite the meedja’s sterling efforts to trash the gov’t., people, particularly business, might be starting to become rightly concerned about Abbott and his team being in charge of the economy. I recall a fairly recent poll, though can’t remember just which on, that had the Libs. well in front on managing the economy, but wonder whether this may be shifting. Could be all wishful thinking on my part, of course, plus utter disbelief that any one who knew even something about the economy, would want Abbott and co. anywhere near it.]
Harry – I’ve turned a lot of it off as well lately – too much of the same stuff and not much about policy. Lots of wishful thinking and disbelief in this house too.
Perhaps some people are seeing through Abbott. I think Swannie’s award and the Libs reaction to it may have caused some to really think how well we have done. Megalogenis had a piece in the OO early last week about business being concerned with Abbott and they want to support Labor to get lots of changes through in the next 2 years just in case Abbott does win the election. What does that say about him!
Did you hear that, as well as taking acting lessons, he’s been tutored in economics. What a laugh for the bloke who is supposed to have an economics degree even if it is a sort of mickey mouse one tacked on to his law degree. I’d ask for my money back because he’s making a schemozzle of what he’s learnt so far.
I’ll be happy if Neilsen improves by a little tho
There’s no evidence that he’s 100 percent committed to anything. He gives an ironclad guarantee about something every couple of months. The only consistency there is that these guarantees are: a. Populist; b. About things he can’t do anything about. Carbon pricing fits his MO perfectly. I daresay he’ll be speaking a lot less about asylum seeker policy now that it’s something he can do something about.
I’m waiting for him to come up with something, anything, that runs counter to what the polls are giving him, something he really believes in. I’ve seen nothing so far.
And a big hello to Julie Bishop, the latest in a long line of Liberals who would rather talk about poll numbers than policy.