The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.
Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.
fess
no he hasnt
she is just resting
57-43 is still a mediocre result for the Government, no matter how much you all try to paint it as bad news for the Coalition.
Yep, “villain” is far too restrained …
That result would be consistent with Newspoll being 2% lower on the 2PP for the ALP than Essential.
I’m guessing the primary vote swing would be +3 ALP, -1 L/NP, -2 Greens
Ducky,
Check your email, I have sent you some brilliant news!
[spur212
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:56 pm | Permalink
That result would be consistent with Newspoll being 2% lower on the 2PP for the ALP than Essential.
I’m guessing the primary vote swing would be +3 ALP, -1 L/NP, -2 Greens
]
something like that – was half listening.
evan
true
i think it should 70/30
damn wimmin
why cant they dang hang in da kitchern
barefoot even
[In Poll Bludger speak………a 1% swing to Labor = landslide victory to Julia Gillard in 2013, and a certain leadership challenge against Tony Abbott later this week. :D]
In TLM speak, Rudd was knifed … neither are true. 😆
Btw Delroty is on 1 hour delay in Qld – so you will here it in about 30 minutes time
Newspoll is biweekly, right?
The 4 Corners program tonight is very troubling. There should be a Royal Commission into the sexual enslavement of women and the violent crime that enables it to continue. If all our talk about human rights means anything at all, we cannot ignore this.
TLM – still a shocker, but the main thing for Labor would be the trend going the other way, i.e. Carbon tax is not even passed, and a few people are starting to get over it. Either that or they getting over the opposition. If you go the 2 years (no panicking!) you can get back in the game.
[In Poll Bludger speak………a 1% swing to Labor = landslide victory to Julia Gillard in 2013]
What absolute rubbish. You are the Michelle Grattan of Pollbludger; you simply blurt out whatever comes into your head, based on how you are feeling at the time.
Probably due to 2 weeks break from parliament, little coverage of Abbott, the tax & jobs forums, most of the Liberal shockjocks on holidays(especially Chris Smith).
[TLM – still a shocker, but the main thing for Labor would be the trend going the other way, i.e. Carbon tax is not even passed, and a few people are starting to get over it. Either that or they getting over the opposition. If you go the 2 years (no panicking!) you can get back in the game.]
Which Gillard and co have been saying all along. Its about the long game. The entire Coalition/media strategy is to ruin the long game before it gains momentum.
[57-43 is still a mediocre result for the Government, no matter how much you all try to paint it as bad news for the Coalition.]
Name the people on here who say this evan.
[Newspoll is biweekly, right?]
How dare u imply it is of loose morals!
[Ghost has been silenced.]
Now, about the evidence.
Not when you’re talking Brutus v Gaius Iulius Caesar.
And…….all of Rudd’s appearances last week DIDN’T hurt Labor, in fact he probably helped Gillard.
Yes Newspoll is bi weekly, but was delayed a week due to a long weekend. Neilson will be next week, so should stick to biweekly from this date.
jackol
of course not
i meant the time of the two kings
east and west
😉
[And…….all of Rudd’s appearances last week DIDN’T hurt Labor, in fact he probably helped Gillard.]
So which is it evan, a good result for Labor or a bad result?
Hitting refresh on The Australian site, nothing yet.
[And…….all of Rudd’s appearances last week DIDN’T hurt Labor, in fact he probably helped Gillard.]
rudds law
rudds law
etc
[How dare u imply it is of loose morals!]
How does Newspoll being biweekly make it of loose morals?
[And…….all of Rudd’s appearances last week DIDN’T hurt Labor, in fact he probably helped Gillard.]
How can this be concluded?
Blossom,
I do think that your sense of equilibrium is upsetting some here.
Gary: Still a bad poll result, but I guess that any increase in the primary vote is encouraging, from a Labor point of view.
glory
easy peasy-
[rudds law]
Shamaham and Newspoll on delay in Qld:
http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane/programs/webcam_radio.htm?ref=listenlive
.[And…….all of Rudd’s appearances last week DIDN’T hurt Labor, in fact he probably helped Gillard.]
And the leaks during the campaign helped Gillard as well.
The best thing Rudd could do is go to the backbench announcing his retirement at the next election.
Simple Glory, by examining the entrails of a cane toad.
Evan gets his best intuitions that way.
[How does Newspoll being biweekly make it of loose morals?]
Ooops
meant loose morales, even bowels sometimes
[Gary: Still a bad poll result, but I guess that any increase in the primary vote is encouraging, from a Labor point of view.]
So according to you Rudd has helped produce a bad result.
[So according to you Rudd has helped produce a bad result.]
Gary
GOLD GOLD GOLD
Gary, don’t confuse the lad.
After a good 2 weeks for the Govt. Labor would have had an even better newspoll result if the MSM hadn’t been encouraged by some quarters to prattle on about leadership 😉
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 29 (+3) L/NP 49 (+1) GRN 12 (-1) #auspol
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 43 (+1) L/NP 57 (-1) #auspol
And Ghost delivers:
[
GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 29 (+3) L/NP 49 (+1) GRN 12 (-1) #auspol
1 minute ago
»
GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 43 (+1) L/NP 57 (-1) #auspol
1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
Still nothing on The Australian (still looks like yesterdays stories).
Next crisis story already up on The Herald Sun though…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/nervous-wait-for-embattled-labor-mp-craig-thomson/story-fn7x8me2-1226163388108
2 great weeks for the government shame about the Newspoll. Bad for Greens only.
bh
long game seems to be working fine
the rats have been sprung
now onto the next stage
😉
I wonder if we’ll see stanny if the polls turn. One thinks not.
Both majors primary vote up Labor 3 Coalition 1.
Very different.
gordongraham Gordon Graham
Tony Crook says his electorate opposes Tony Abbott’s changes to the migration act bit.ly/qBwyXL #auspol
3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Ha
abc flunky just said they didnt do talkback with shannas
when i pointed out i had spoken before she freaked out
Fib failures are everywhere
(when they lie outright u know dey iz just flunkies)
That Herald Sun article has told us nothing new.
Yes, Gus – I kinda liked what Shorten had to say tonight so on with the policy work. Heads down and backsides up to get all the ducks lined up for 2013.
+3 is a start. Orf to bed. Night all
[Tony Crook says his electorate opposes Tony Abbott’s changes to the migration act ]
It’s ON.