The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.
Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.
Iago
[Either that, or there’s been a shift to the Coalition.]
Not sure that Labor could do any worse than a 2PP vote in the low 40s, but stranger things have occured before.
If Newspoll is late, blame Daylight Saving….
[Oh well, in the absence of Glen and Thomas Paine, I guess I’m now the ‘Villain of Poll Bludger’.]
‘And loving it’, it seems.
[If you are not in form you are not in form. I think he can play well but he was not in that game. Once that was obvious then he should have been off the field. That is all I am saying]
gwen
u dont blood champions that way
🙁
“Villain” just doesn’t convey the appropriate degree of imbecility, somehow …
of course there’s a shift to coalition with rudd around. More reason to blame JG. Blame Rudd for that. They are both just trying to save the party.
‘Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!’
[Thumper
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 9:37 pm | Permalink
Good to hear that Susan Mitchell is out there defending her book and skewering Abbott. I have finally finished the book and applaud her for writing it – we need more people to expose the character of the man.
One thing I found mentioned in Susans book that was difficult to comprehend is the relationship between and the council that Abbott takes from the OO’s Christopher Pearson. It seems that Pearson has been following and supporting Abbott for quite a few years.]
I read another book of Mitchell’s earlier this year. Oddly enough, she’s a good friend of Christopher Pearson. They were students together and have maintained a respectful contact ever since, even though their careers had gone in different directions.
Judging by his columns, I’d find it hard to sustain a friendship with Pearson but I guess when you’ve been through a few things together you don’t always get bothered about differences of a social/political kind.
fulv
vittels maybe?
So evan, if Rudd did knife JG would you still think he is the best thing since sliced bread?
Could be that TA’s net negative has -60 and they are doing a re-count.
geoffrey
rudds law
rudds law
rudds law
Has the Ghost been silenced? This is an outrage! I propose that Bludgers donate to a fighting fund to take out a full page ad in The Australian in support of free speech and the Ghost’s right to leak Newspoll results early.
Gweneth,
Anyone responsible for the composite on the field thinks of many things. Robbie Deans’ attitude has always been attack. He has been quick to adjust. The Kiwis’ Henry is a little different, he stays with what has succeeded with less relevance to a particular opposition.
I think most of us have been villains at times.
I’m sticking to my 56/44 I predicted last week
I think most of us have been villains at times.
I’m sticking to my 56/44 I predicted last week
We’ll truck it to News Ltd headquarters in the Convoy of the Inconsolables.
have faith. the market will be back to 4500 soon, the ghost will speak, the polls will slowly grow, one day there will be a majority, the malaysian bill will go through. life is sweet.
Newspoll being discussed on What The Papers Say – ALP Primary 29$
2PP 57- 43 Coalition
Iago?
If you haven’t read Shakespeare for 44 years, I’m impressed you came up with Malvolio in the first place.
[Newspoll being discussed on What The Papers Say – ALP Primary 29$
2PP 57- 43 Coalition]
What was it last time?
[evan
there is only one brutus
]
If William is Brutus, does that make Frank or you Caesar?
[In relation to Newspoll, no early leaks probably mean that it’s status quo for Labor, or an improvement for them on 2 weeks ago.
Either that, or there’s been a shift to the Coalition.]
I thought those polls were always Coalition friendly over Labor friendly.
[#
BK
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 9:53 pm | Permalink
How does Mesma get away with this crap?
#
2923
This little black duck
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 9:54 pm | Permalink
Someone should record Julie’s comments for posterity.
20 minutes in and we are still doing JG v KR. ]
And another thing. We’ve long criticised Jones for interrupting the PM and other female politicians. Maybe we should amend that to female LABOR politicians. He let Mesma go on quite long without interruption.
Shorten at least made sure of balance by ensuring that Jones didn’t cut him off.
Labor +1 on the Newspoll based on Frank’s figs
[jenauthor
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:41 pm | Permalink
Newspoll being discussed on What The Papers Say – ALP Primary 29$
2PP 57- 43 Coalition
What was it last time?
]
58-42.
AlanS – I demand that we also stop the OO from publishing any more leaks from senior Labor Minister/adviser or Labor source. From this day forth no further leaks are allowed anywhere, at any time, by any person, body or corporation.
TLBD – the team played brilliantly. It was a good win. The Boks had a good game plan that treated to shut us down. It was Quade who didn’t adapt. Playing Kiwi will be very different. That game style will suit Quade – I would start him despite the Bok game. Wales was pretty impressive.
Best thing is England is out!
Blossom.
[I thought those polls were always Coalition friendly over Labor friendly.]
Bilbo and Poss have always said that there is no permanent bias.
[If William is Brutus,]
u said it
[does that make Frank or you Caesar?]
there were a few dual emperors btw
[That game style will suit Quade – I would start him despite the Bok game]
He will start.
[Bilbo and Poss have always said that there is no permanent bias.]
Either way, take it as a pinch of salt. I was suspecting these pollers call up suburbs of a moderate to strong liberal background.
So are those numbers of Frank’s official?
[I was suspecting these pollers call up suburbs of a moderate to strong liberal background.]
U mean fib electorates?
You see? It’s the trend. The trend. The trend is your friend.
Every poll (just about) for the last six weeks has been the same or (more often) better for Labor than the previous one from that stable.
[If William is Brutus,
u said it
]
I think it’s obvious who you’re referring to whenever you say ‘Brutus’.
[there were a few dual emperors btw]
Not quite. The two were above equals but still accountable to the Senate.
[So are those numbers of Frank’s official?]
Ghostwhovotes retweeted frank’s tweet so possibly?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/09/19/newspoll-58-42-to-coalition-2/
gwen
Frank what Station did you hear that on?
[Gweneth
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:49 pm | Permalink
So are those numbers of Frank’s official?
]
tThe OO Mouthpiece said so on Delroy- plus a lot of stuff about attitudes to IR, Asylum Seekers etc
applebee
you added to it
🙂
Blossom,
[I was suspecting these pollers call up suburbs of a moderate to strong liberal background.]
I think you are about to stir William from his repose.
[Leroy
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:51 pm | Permalink
Frank what Station did you hear that on?
]
ABC KLocal Radio Tony Delroy’s Nightlife – What The Papers Say.
[U mean fib electorates?]
Like that, I guess. I’m disappointed I’ve never been phoned to ask who is my preferred party or PM.
[I think you are about to stir William from his repose.]
Please don’t hurt me, William. I’m sorry!
applebee
they know u would say brutus
🙁
[This little black duck
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
Blossom,
I was suspecting these pollers call up suburbs of a moderate to strong liberal background.
I think you are about to stir William from his repose.
]
I’ve heard that Pattersons in WA would ring parts of the electorate which are more sympathetic to the result that they want to achieve – allegedly.
Ghost has been silenced.
This is outrageous.
In Poll Bludger speak………a 1% swing to Labor = landslide victory to Julia Gillard in 2013, and a certain leadership challenge against Tony Abbott later this week. 😀
[gordongraham Gordon Graham
if those #Newspoll figures are accurate, that would be +1 to the ALP on the 2PP and +3 on the primary vote #auspol]
close to the mark
SLBR will crunch the numbers,I suspect