Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Can’t see full online results anywhere at this stage, but GhostWhoVotes and The Australian relate the publication of the latest quarterly Newspoll figures providing breakdowns by state, gender and metro/regional from the past three months’ polling. The state figures are always the most interesting from my perspective, and it’s only Newspoll and Nielsen which offer this level of detail. Nielsen publishes full breakdowns for its monthly polls, but these are from much lower samples than the quarterly Newspoll. To even the playing field, the following discussion uses quarterly averages of Nielsen’s results.

The resulting samples are substantial for the biggest states – over 2000, in the case of Newspoll for New South Wales – but correspondingly smaller for Western Australia and especially South Australia. It is presumably no coincidence that for the two biggest states the two pollsters are currently in agreement, with swings of 8 per cent in New South Wales and 6 to 7 per cent in Victoria (although as the charts below show, it was a different story in the previous quarter). It is also agreed the swing in Western Australia is around 4 per cent. With Queensland however, a gap emerges: Newspoll says 6 per cent, Nielsen says 10 per cent. There is a still bigger gap in the case of South Australia, but this can be put down to small samples and the latest obviously anomalous result from Nielsen.

To establish whether there has been any consistency in these distinctions over time, the charts below show the Labor swings recorded in each quarter since the election. Despite poll-level peculiarities, both broadly suggest that Labor enjoyed a post-election dead cat bounce in the resource states. In the case of Western Australia, this gave Labor a buffer which is still evident in the relatively slight current swing. On the Nielsen chart however, the most recent result sees the lines for New South Wales and Victoria cutting across Queensland’s – remembering that the prevous quarter’s results for these states were very different from Newspoll’s, the only serious interruption to a broadly similar picture for these two states since the election.

Conveniently, Galaxy has also conducted one poll of 800 respondents in each quarter in Queensland, and these accord perfectly with the Newspoll and Nielsen results from this state. In each period, Labor is slightly higher in Newspoll and slightly lower in Nielsen with Galaxy in between, and there’s not much in it in any case. In the current quarter, Galaxy’s 63-37 two-party preferred splits the middle of the previously noted four-point gap between Newspoll and Nielsen. The only other state-level results I’m aware of are two Western Australian polls of 400 respondents conducted by Patterson Market Research. One of these was as long ago as October last year, which accorded with Newspoll and Nielsen of that time in showing a Labor recovery. However, an unpublished poll from two months ago was solidly worse for Labor than either, pointing to a swing of about 7 per cent.

What the polls would appear to indicate then is a big enough swing in New South Wales to account for Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Kingsford Smith, Werriwa, Barton, Richmond and McMahon, and a slightly smaller swing in Victoria that would take out Corangamite, La Trobe, Deakin and possibly Chisholm (UPDATE: I originally included McEwen, but as noted in comments, the redistribution has made this safer for Labor). Since Galaxy splits the middle in Queensland, it seems best to apply its 8 per cent swing there – which, as was noted at the time the poll was published, would leave only Kevin Rudd standing in Griffith. Gone would be Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, Blair, Rankin and Oxley. In Western Australia, Labor currently holds Brand on 3.3 per cent, Fremantle on 5.7 per cent and Perth on 5.9 per cent: the Newspoll and Nielsen poll swings would put the first in danger while sparing the second and third.

Results from South Australia are small-sample and inconsistent, except that they have broadly been at the higher end of the national spectrum – perhaps around 8 per cent. However, this is coming off the high base of last year’s election, which gave Labor very handy buffers in a swathe of traditionally marginal seats. The lowest Labor margins are 5.7 per cent in Hindmarsh (where Labor has weakened relatively over the last two elections), 7.7 per cent in Adelaide, 12.0 per cent in Wakefield, 12.2 per cent in Makin and 13.9 per cent in Kingston. The last three seats, remarkably, were all in Liberal hands as recently as 2007.

Owing to insufficient sample size, neither Newspoll nor Nielsen provides state-level breakdowns for Tasmania. We did however have an EMRS poll from Bass a month ago which pointed to a 9 per cent Liberal swing, but this was from a small sample of 300 and there were questions raised about its methodology. A swing of that size would nonetheless be enough to take out Bass (6.7 per cent) and its neighbour Braddon (7.5 per cent). The territories of course are pretty much excluded from the polling picture altogether, although Warren Snowdon’s hold on Lingiari in the Northern Territory would have to be open to question given its margin of 3.7 per cent.

None of this should be read as a prediction: first term governments notwithstanding, its a rare government that doesn’t plumb mid-term polling depths far removed from the result eventually produced by the election. This is especially so in the modern environment, when weakening party loyalties have produced an ever-swelling contingent of swinging voters. Even so, the drumbeat consistency of dire results for Labor since April is hard to ignore, and it has no precedent for any government which lived to tell the tale. Labor’s leads during the early part of Mark Latham’s shooting star trajectory were never higher than 55-45; only once in early 2001 did Kim Beazley get as high as 57-43, and was usually solidly lower; and the relevant Newspolls for the great Houdini act of modern federal politics, Paul Keating’s win in 1993, look fairly benign compared with Gillard’s recent numbers. The Fightback! polls which toppled Hawke at the end of 1991 were in the order of 56-44 and 57-43, and Keating wrestled them back to the low fifties by March. Only from November 1991 to February 1992, after John Hewson remodelled his GST to exclude food and clothing, did the Coalition reach such peaks again.

Another lesson from history is that when the electorate ejects Labor from office, it tends to do with a force which the conservative parties are spared. With few exceptions (a handful of those in New South Wales plus Brand, Lingiari and arguably Oxley, which Pauline Hanson won in 1996 as a disendorsed Liberal), the seats listed as Labor losses on the current results have all been lost to them before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,134 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. kezza2

    [Re: Free Speech Disaster for Australia
    by Mark Steyn

    I moved to Australia several years ago from America and within 3 months I realized I had lost a lot of the freedoms I was so used to.]

    Yeah like the right to Yeeeee Haw ………

    [What could possibly go wrong? From today, carrying guns in bars is now legal in Ohio
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2043627/Carrying-guns-bars-Ohio-legal.html ]

    Yeah and you also lost the right to live in the country with more prisoners than any other nation.The right to live in a country with a murder rate 2-3 times higher than ours. The right to live in a nation that has a life expectency below that of Cuba ! The right to live in a nation with a GINI index equal with Uganda.The right to live in a nation near the bottom of the OECD in just about every social well being measure. Most sadly for Mr Steyn would be losing the right to bomb the crap out of anybody his country feels like.Oh so many rights Mt Steyn would have lost coming here

  2. Re HoJo questioning from reporters

    rather than asking “do you think the tax summit will be a waste of time?”

    how about something challenging like “have you reconsidered your statements in parliament about former winners of EuroMoney best Finance Minister award? Some have seen these comments as racial stereotyping?”

  5. This little black duck

    [End of. Did not look comfortable.]

    Soooooooo a total waste of time and a pointless exercise brought on by possiblle relavence deprivation syndrome ? Not even a funny ?

  6. [victoria
    Posted Monday, October 3, 2011 at 11:21 am | Permalink
    Kezza2

    Whoever that blogger is. If he/she loves the freedoms of America so much, i would recommend they return. Because we know how great things are for the brave and the free at the moment!!!]
    I posted a comment (it’s not up yet, wonder if it will) and had to make sure my fingers didn’t type what you said – which encompassed my feelings exactly.

    Quite a few Aussies on there bemoaning the downfall of Australia in the hands of the socialists. One even links to a Piers Akerman blog for the “truth” Yikes!!

  7. It would be a shame if the run the Ghost to ground although I don’t see any attempt as an attack on free speech. If an organisation pays for information then they probably have a right to use it first otherwise what’s the point of paying for it in the first place. The Ghost must have contacts in places other than News though as he gets information on polls not paid for by News.

    Anyway let’s hope the Ghost survives or we will just have to learn to be more patient. We may get to bed earlier in Sundays and Mondays in polling weeks which could be a good thing.

  9. kezza2

    Seems those bagging Australia are spitting on their good fortune. Wish these people would get a grip on the real world

  12. [poroti
    Posted Monday, October 3, 2011 at 11:28 am | Permalink
    kezza2

    Re: Free Speech Disaster for Australia
    by Mark Steyn

    I moved to Australia several years ago from America and within 3 months I realized I had lost a lot of the freedoms I was so used to.

    Yeah like the right to Yeeeee Haw ………

    What could possibly go wrong? From today, carrying guns in bars is now legal in Ohio
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2043627/Carrying-guns-bars-Ohio-legal.html

    Yeah and you also lost the right to live in the country with more prisoners than any other nation.The right to live in a country with a murder rate 2-3 times higher than ours. The right to live in a nation that has a life expectency below that of Cuba ! The right to live in a nation with a GINI index equal with Uganda.The right to live in a nation near the bottom of the OECD in just about every social well being measure.]
    Spot on,
    especially the Yeeeee Haw ………
    LOL

    go on over (hold your nose) and re-post your comment (entirely).
    should create a sensation!

    And, seriously, because guns don’t rate a mention in my thoughts, forgot all about their right to bear arms under the constitution, or so they think.

  13. This little black duck

    [Why was JoHo uncomfortable?

    He looked like he had a hangover. Monotone. Same old cliches.]

    I think you spotted the problem. His cliche writer had forgotten to send through the latest batch of cliches and 3 word slogans and it was beyond Jo to come up with “new” ones ! 🙂

  14. BB

    Not sure who you mix with but here in Qld the view is dire. Sort of like being bogged. No one quite sure of what to do and waiting for kind hero in a 4×4 to pull from bog.

  15. OPT 2 6950

    Great recall.
    Do you mind if I direct Chris Curtis to your post?
    It would save a lot of time arguing what your post exposes so succinctly.

  16. Just read the Misha Schubert article previously linked to and I believe she is closer to the mark than VexNews. We shall see.

    It all rests in the hands of caucus and whatever external forces influence it. I don’t think PB or any of it’s posters are among them. We are mere observers and commenters.

    There is now an expectation of a Rudd resurrection even among MPs who do not celebrate the prospect. Many say privately that Labor cannot win with Gillard, the public dislike her too much. But there are still strong forces keeping her in place – the many who fear reprisals under Rudd, the antipathy towards him, and the argument that it makes sense to let Gillard square away the carbon laws and the mining tax before making any switch.

    Yet the consistent poll trend points to change. Voters strongly back Rudd over Gillard – although the Galaxy Poll in the Daily Telegraph on Friday should give pause. He beats her by four to one among Coalition voters, yet 60 per cent said a change of leadership would not shift their vote.

    Some Rudd backers entertain the idea that, at some point, Gillard will concede she is unable to resurrect the government’s fortunes and go quietly.

    I’m not convinced. In part, that’s because some of her allies are so truculently against a Rudd return. They would demand that she stand her ground. Even more, though, because it is not in her nature to walk away from a fight. Unlike many women, she relishes the bloodsport of politics (at least she did before feeling its lash so punishingly as Prime Minister). This is what made her the woman most likely to crack that glass ceiling in the first place. She was almost unique in her appetite for a fight. For her, the indignity of a loss would be compounded by a meek surrender.

    The other question is whether such an exit would be good for the party. I think not. If Labor is to escape the values-junking, spin-obsessed death spiral it is in, where better to start than with a real leadership contest?

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labors-future-could-depend-on-how-it-selects-its-leader-20111001-1l2z2.html#ixzz1ZftHJwG8

  17. Oh, and he wants the tax system simplified. Channeling the CPA bloke, I guess.

    JG presser from Hobart “within half-an-hour or so.”

  20. What’s more important to the Labor caucus: the survival of most of them(in an electoral sense), or their dislike of their former boss?
    Unless Julia turns these polls around in the next 6 months, the perception will remain that the ALP is condeming itself to electoral oblivion in 2013, out of spite.

  21. Interesting comment by Phillip Coorey:

    During those tortuous 17 days that followed last year’s federal election, Rudd had Katter twice as a guest at his then Canberra apartment to pressure him to support Labor.

    ”He was very aggressive and very passionate, even though it might be the signing of his political death warrant,” said Katter, who assumed at the time Labor would consolidate and grow under Gillard.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/katter-chatter-keeps-speculation-of-rudd-comeback-alive-20111002-1l3rl.html#ixzz1Zfu3idNV

    So contrary to what many here say, Rudd worked hard on behalf of establishing a Gillard minority government at the potential cost of burying any chance he had to turn to leadership.

    Doesn’t fit the popular meme does it?

  22. Today’s Mumble. Takes a look at Wilkie’s seat and Tassie in general

    Contains an interesting tidbit

    [
    Newspoll doesn’t include Tasmania in its quarterly state-by-state breakdowns because the sample sizes are too small. Nielsen leaves them out of its monthlies for the same reason.

    However, the word from inside Newspoll is that Tasmania is this year registering support at around the same levels as the national aggregate. If that is the case it’s a massive change from the last election, representing a swing to the Coalition of around seventeen percent compared with a national one of seven percent.
    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/wilkie_and_denison/

  23. This little black duck

    [Oh, and he wants the tax system simplified. Channeling the CPA bloke, I guess.

    JG presser from Hobart “within half-an-hour or so.”]

    So HoJo was just the warm up, a novelty act before the main event 🙂

  24. @TLM/6970,

    You mean media sense, not electoral sense.

    It’s the media that started to play this game, just as it was with Gillard.

  25. Well Katter has laid out the plan for Labor. Wait until late next year and dump Gillard for Rudd and he will likely support Labor. Rudd, Brown & Katter controlling the country sounds like a really interesting mix.

  27. Evan establishes yet another “line in the sand” ultimatum on Gillard’s leadership.

    He’s batting zero yet sees himself as some font of wisdom.

  28. [out of spite]

    Not out of spite TLM. In my opinion I think there are some reasonable people in the ALP who genuinely think Rudd totally mismanaged cabinet government. There is also wisdom in not being suckered into the NSW ALP disease of having a revolving door of leadership.

    If they do change from Gillard, in my view it would be to someone like Stephen Smith about 6 months out from the election IF the polls were still recording a primary vote in the range 29-33. Gillard would need to stand aside to give such a change any credibility.

  29. DavidWH

    [ Rudd, Brown & Katter controlling the country sounds like a really interesting mix.]
    Ah yes the Bown Yin curled up with the Katter Yang and St Kevin of Griffith in between.

  30. Greensborough Growler

    [Evan establishes yet another “line in the sand” ultimatum on Gillard’s leadership.]

    The beauty of a line in the sand is that the tide washes it away twice a day and if further up the beach gets covered over with the next bit of wind 🙂

  31. I should add to my last post that a change to Smith would only be about “saving the furniture” – ie not with any real expectation of winning; and saving Combet or Shorten for a real tilt 3 to 6 years later.

  32. bemused
    [So contrary to what many here say, Rudd worked hard on behalf of establishing a Gillard minority government at the potential cost of burying any chance he had to turn to leadership.

    Doesn’t fit the popular meme does it?]
    You’re grasping at straws if you are claiming Katter’s ratty logic as a basis for your argument.
    Rudd was already out – in the context then, his “political death warrant” had already been served.

    That Rudd continued to work for the ALP has never been denied. And why would continuing to work for the ALP bury any chance of a return to the leadership? Sorry, bemused, that just doesn’t make sense.

  35. This is great from Elder:

    [It’s subjective because it isn’t manifested in any testable reality. Murphy’s colleagues have undergone mass hypnosis to this effect and are trying to project a reality so that they can justify the time they’ve spent on chasing a story that simply isn’t there.]

  36. Bemused

    That is old news. it was common knowledge that Rudd tried to get Katter on side at the time. That is why some believed Katter would support the govt.

  37. There are probably only a handfull of people who have any idea what, if anything, will happen on the Labor leadership and the rest is wishing and hopeing and praying. Hey but it makes good fodder for PB discussions.

  38. Joe the warm-up act? I don’t think so! More like the bloke who comes on stage with a broom after the cast and the audience have left.

  41. Kezza2 @ 6982

    You left out a key sentence in what you quoted:

    ”He was very aggressive and very passionate, even though it might be the signing of his political death warrant,” said Katter, who assumed at the time Labor would consolidate and grow under Gillard.

    Had that expectation come to pass, there would be no chance of any Rudd revival as Gillard would have been riding high. And Rudd worked for that outcome.

    It is only the continuing malaise of the Fed Govt that has raised the issue of any leadership change. And it is not a MSM beat up although they do play it for all it is worth.

  42. victoria @ 6986

    Bemused

    That is old news. it was common knowledge that Rudd tried to get Katter on side at the time. That is why some believed Katter would support the govt.

    Could well be so but I was previously unaware (or had forgotten :P).

  45. Even as I am posting this, I can hear Gusface saying “told you so”. 🙂

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-03/japan-nuclear-companies-stacked-public-meetings/3206288

    [An independent investigation in Japan has revealed a long history of nuclear power companies conspiring with governments to manipulate public opinion in favour of nuclear energy.

    One nuclear company even stacked public meetings with its own employees who posed as ordinary citizens to speak in support of nuclear power plants.

    “The number one reactor has been operating for 30 years and I’ve never had a problem selling my rice or vegetables because of fears of radiation,” a man posing as a farmer told a gathering of citizens discussing a proposal to use plutonium fuel at the Genkai nuclear plant on the southern island of Kyushu.]

  47. [victoria
    Posted Monday, October 3, 2011 at 11:56 am | Permalink
    Labor lampoons Angry Anderson.

    I dont see where Labor is lampooning Angry.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/labor-lampoons-angry-andersons-political-push-for-nationals/story-e6frf7jx-1226156964618
    It was actually lampooning Barnaby Joyce:
    [“This is a man who’s going to be running for The Nationals on a plank of New World Order and I think somebody who will finally make Barnaby Joyce, with his confusion of millions and billions, look sane,” Dr Leigh told Sky News]
    However, Andrew Leigh has obviously had a gander at Angry Anderson’s blog to make the New World Order reference:
    [Gee, it’s big business cleverly or not so cleverly disguised as “do gooders”. This has been pointed out in emails that have been circulating in recent times worth investigating. Wouldn’t be the first time the international banking cartels have duped and enlisted the young and outraged to do their dirty work whilst preying on the fears of the older working population threatening them with their mortgage and livelihood, keeping us distracted with issues, like trying to educate our kids and keeping a roof over our heads, while they plot and scheme to fleece yet more of our money away from us.]
    http://angryanderson.com/blog/?p=46

    Do you reckon he’ll fit in with the Nats with thoughts like these?
    Ha!

  48. lizzie

    Both Finns and Gus have been very critical of the Japanese govt and the nuclear energy companies. Rightly so, I might add

  49. Bemused,

    There is no malaise.

    Labor has embarked on an unprecedented programme of Legislative reform. Government is not about sitting around and occupying oneself between Newspolls.

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