Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Can’t see full online results anywhere at this stage, but GhostWhoVotes and The Australian relate the publication of the latest quarterly Newspoll figures providing breakdowns by state, gender and metro/regional from the past three months’ polling. The state figures are always the most interesting from my perspective, and it’s only Newspoll and Nielsen which offer this level of detail. Nielsen publishes full breakdowns for its monthly polls, but these are from much lower samples than the quarterly Newspoll. To even the playing field, the following discussion uses quarterly averages of Nielsen’s results.

The resulting samples are substantial for the biggest states – over 2000, in the case of Newspoll for New South Wales – but correspondingly smaller for Western Australia and especially South Australia. It is presumably no coincidence that for the two biggest states the two pollsters are currently in agreement, with swings of 8 per cent in New South Wales and 6 to 7 per cent in Victoria (although as the charts below show, it was a different story in the previous quarter). It is also agreed the swing in Western Australia is around 4 per cent. With Queensland however, a gap emerges: Newspoll says 6 per cent, Nielsen says 10 per cent. There is a still bigger gap in the case of South Australia, but this can be put down to small samples and the latest obviously anomalous result from Nielsen.

To establish whether there has been any consistency in these distinctions over time, the charts below show the Labor swings recorded in each quarter since the election. Despite poll-level peculiarities, both broadly suggest that Labor enjoyed a post-election dead cat bounce in the resource states. In the case of Western Australia, this gave Labor a buffer which is still evident in the relatively slight current swing. On the Nielsen chart however, the most recent result sees the lines for New South Wales and Victoria cutting across Queensland’s – remembering that the prevous quarter’s results for these states were very different from Newspoll’s, the only serious interruption to a broadly similar picture for these two states since the election.

Conveniently, Galaxy has also conducted one poll of 800 respondents in each quarter in Queensland, and these accord perfectly with the Newspoll and Nielsen results from this state. In each period, Labor is slightly higher in Newspoll and slightly lower in Nielsen with Galaxy in between, and there’s not much in it in any case. In the current quarter, Galaxy’s 63-37 two-party preferred splits the middle of the previously noted four-point gap between Newspoll and Nielsen. The only other state-level results I’m aware of are two Western Australian polls of 400 respondents conducted by Patterson Market Research. One of these was as long ago as October last year, which accorded with Newspoll and Nielsen of that time in showing a Labor recovery. However, an unpublished poll from two months ago was solidly worse for Labor than either, pointing to a swing of about 7 per cent.

What the polls would appear to indicate then is a big enough swing in New South Wales to account for Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Kingsford Smith, Werriwa, Barton, Richmond and McMahon, and a slightly smaller swing in Victoria that would take out Corangamite, La Trobe, Deakin and possibly Chisholm (UPDATE: I originally included McEwen, but as noted in comments, the redistribution has made this safer for Labor). Since Galaxy splits the middle in Queensland, it seems best to apply its 8 per cent swing there – which, as was noted at the time the poll was published, would leave only Kevin Rudd standing in Griffith. Gone would be Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, Blair, Rankin and Oxley. In Western Australia, Labor currently holds Brand on 3.3 per cent, Fremantle on 5.7 per cent and Perth on 5.9 per cent: the Newspoll and Nielsen poll swings would put the first in danger while sparing the second and third.

Results from South Australia are small-sample and inconsistent, except that they have broadly been at the higher end of the national spectrum – perhaps around 8 per cent. However, this is coming off the high base of last year’s election, which gave Labor very handy buffers in a swathe of traditionally marginal seats. The lowest Labor margins are 5.7 per cent in Hindmarsh (where Labor has weakened relatively over the last two elections), 7.7 per cent in Adelaide, 12.0 per cent in Wakefield, 12.2 per cent in Makin and 13.9 per cent in Kingston. The last three seats, remarkably, were all in Liberal hands as recently as 2007.

Owing to insufficient sample size, neither Newspoll nor Nielsen provides state-level breakdowns for Tasmania. We did however have an EMRS poll from Bass a month ago which pointed to a 9 per cent Liberal swing, but this was from a small sample of 300 and there were questions raised about its methodology. A swing of that size would nonetheless be enough to take out Bass (6.7 per cent) and its neighbour Braddon (7.5 per cent). The territories of course are pretty much excluded from the polling picture altogether, although Warren Snowdon’s hold on Lingiari in the Northern Territory would have to be open to question given its margin of 3.7 per cent.

None of this should be read as a prediction: first term governments notwithstanding, its a rare government that doesn’t plumb mid-term polling depths far removed from the result eventually produced by the election. This is especially so in the modern environment, when weakening party loyalties have produced an ever-swelling contingent of swinging voters. Even so, the drumbeat consistency of dire results for Labor since April is hard to ignore, and it has no precedent for any government which lived to tell the tale. Labor’s leads during the early part of Mark Latham’s shooting star trajectory were never higher than 55-45; only once in early 2001 did Kim Beazley get as high as 57-43, and was usually solidly lower; and the relevant Newspolls for the great Houdini act of modern federal politics, Paul Keating’s win in 1993, look fairly benign compared with Gillard’s recent numbers. The Fightback! polls which toppled Hawke at the end of 1991 were in the order of 56-44 and 57-43, and Keating wrestled them back to the low fifties by March. Only from November 1991 to February 1992, after John Hewson remodelled his GST to exclude food and clothing, did the Coalition reach such peaks again.

Another lesson from history is that when the electorate ejects Labor from office, it tends to do with a force which the conservative parties are spared. With few exceptions (a handful of those in New South Wales plus Brand, Lingiari and arguably Oxley, which Pauline Hanson won in 1996 as a disendorsed Liberal), the seats listed as Labor losses on the current results have all been lost to them before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,134 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. [Labor has embarked on an unprecedented programme of Legislative reform. Government is not about sitting around and occupying oneself between Newspolls. ]

    Its the irony about criticism of the Government going from being too poll-driven to not being poll-driven enough. I’m not sure what the ideal balance is for these people, but surely it’d be mysteriously easier to achieve with a Coalition government.

  2. kezza2

    Barnaby does manage to get people under his spell. I know a usually sensible person who thinks Barnaby talks a lot of sense. Truly when she said this to me recently, i was gobsmacked!

  3. Apparently there was misunderstanding between the Ref and the player.

    A yellow card is not a send-off. Just a friendly tap on the shoulder. Anyway, i did enjoy my side line chat with the Ref. The Ref should pay attention with the Beautiful Game.

  4. AA represents the Nats with Tatts. If branding is good enough for other cattle and livestock they own, why not their politicians?

  7. I aprticularly liked this from Andrew Elder:

    Abbott has thrown everything his reptilian, short-term brain can think of at the Gillard government, nothing has worked. The government is still standing and the independents have gone from being disinclined to actively hating the guy. The idea that he’s all bark and no bite is cemented in place pretty much everywhere outside State Circle, ACT; his response is to bark louder, which is annoying but impresses the hell out of nongs in the press gallery, they will keep on doing his laundry for him. Even so, Abbott is getting increasingly frantic; if he can’t knock over Gillard soon he’s going to be left exposed.

    The press gallery will then be faced with a choice: report that he’s exposed, or continue covering up for his utter absence of policy substance and wilful refusal to address the big issues facing our country. They could turn their backs on his pathetically limited display and report some of the bigger and more immediate issues, but that would require courage and reflective ability on the part of the journosphere which they – like the Coalition – lack. The wider public doesn’t lack these qualities, which is why we are so badly served by both the Coalition and the press gallery

  9. GG @ 6999

    Bemused,

    There is no malaise.

    Labor has embarked on an unprecedented programme of Legislative reform. Government is not about sitting around and occupying oneself between Newspolls.

    I agree.

  10. Bemused

    Imagine if the msm stopped speculating on the leadership and concentrated on the policies of the govt and the alternative position of the coalition. Also imagine if we were not reminded of the opinion polls every week, or that the opinion polls were not so bad for Labor, would there be a malaise in the fed govt, or just merely business as usual?

  11. I also liked this:

    [Tony Abbott presents the sort of brash, utterly baseless confidence that you get from media executives like John Hartigan or David Leckie, and journos are drawn to that like flies to shit. They can’t see that Abbott is a fraud because they can’t afford to, which weakens their ability to tell us what is going on in Federal politics. ]

    and:

    [First, their central (and seemingly only) criticism of the government is that it is a do-nothing government. On the table between now and Christmas is what Tim Fischer would call “bucketloads of extinguishment” of that notion: carbon price, the disability scheme, broadband, and other issues besides. If Labor change leaders and Rudd reinstates his old way of doing things, the prospect of actual achievements disappear. Instead of a mass bloodletting within Rudd Labor II there would be the slow spread of fear and loathing, like that of East Germany in the 1950s when the populace realised they were trapped and could only sullenly welcome their totalitarian overlords.]

  12. [Essential Research: 55-45, down from 56-44. Labor’s best result since July 25 on two-party, since June 14 on primary.]

    Hooray, hooray!!!

  13. bemused,

    I left out the clause
    [assumed at the time Labor would consolidate and grow under Gillard.]
    because I thought it was Katter who assumed it!

    Nevertheless, I did address the issue.
    [That Rudd continued to work for the ALP has never been denied. And why would continuing to work for the ALP bury any chance of a return to the leadership?]

    Let me be more specific then. Why would continuing to work for an ascendant Gillard (even assuming she remained popular for years) bury any change of a return to the leadership for Rudd? It’s not like he’s knocking on the door of retirement age.

    So, sorry, bemused, your argument doesn’t fit your meme.

  14. victoria @ 7010

    Bemused

    Imagine if the msm stopped speculating on the leadership and concentrated on the policies of the govt and the alternative position of the coalition. Also imagine if we were not reminded of the opinion polls every week, or that the opinion polls were not so bad for Labor, would there be a malaise in the fed govt, or just merely business as usual?

    Yes, wouldn’t it be wonderful!

    Maybe this Essential Poll William referenced @7008 marks the turning point in the polls.

  17. [Essential Research: 55-45, down from 56-44. Labor’s best result since July 25 on two-party, since June 14 on primary]

    Just another 2% more to Labor and it may get verrrry interesting out Coalition land way for Mr Abbott.

  18. [Just another 2% more to Labor and it may get verrrry interesting out Coalition land way for Mr Abbott.]

    Exactly, and the very reason ALP needs to hold its nerve and stay with Gillard. If they can get back to 52-48, the boot will be on the other foot and The Reptile will be the nervous one.

  19. Ah. That’s because. I was polled ‘lol

    Wish I could tell u the questions. Why don’t u all register
    But. I bet the questions will be. In. Will review
    Not allowed to say.the questionsinearly didn’t open.

  22. Lynchpin: the Libs won’t start panicking until there are more than 2 polls showing any narrowing.

    But once that happens, watch out! It won’t just be more unhinging it will be the final unravelling.

    Stand clear to avoid being hit by flying shrapnel 😀

  26. Good to see Bob Katter referring to himself in the third person. Oh, he also talks about the Labor leadership

    [
    He said his final decision on whether to back Mr Rudd – a long-time friend – would hinge on whether the former prime minister could tick more boxes than Mr Abbott on the independent’s 20-point manifesto, issued last September during minority government negotiations.

    “Bob Katter followed the 20 points and he would again,” Mr Katter said.

    Mr Katter said Mr Abbott had promised his support for the removal of taxes on Australian-produced bio-fuels like ethanol, but had not followed through on the pledge.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bob-katter-warns-labor-to-wait-on-leadership-as-he-leaves-the-door-open-to-supporting-rudd/story-fn59niix-1226156999208

  27. Finns

    Welcome back partner. Bit of bad timing, but. Upon your return I pulled F,B,F&Co out of its trading halt and, to make up for lost time, it plonged 10% at the opening on very, very light trading.

    Something about Greece having a controlled default, commodity prices heading south with some determination, the global banking system being a stack of cards, and Mr Abbott, Mr Robb and Mr Hockey talking down the Oz economy.

    Luckily we have Mr Swan, the world’s best treasurer or we would be up the proverbial without the proverbial.

  28. Lynchpin

    [Exactly, and the very reason ALP needs to hold its nerve and stay with Gillard. If they can get back to 52-48, the boot will be on the other foot and The Reptile will be the nervous one.]
    I think a claw back to even a 53-47 position over the next few months would be enough to get some questions being asked and a few of the hounds off and running. A 52-48 position against a government even 6 months out from an election should be a winning position come election time for a government. As long as it is not “It’s Time” or they perform some monumentally stupid act.

  30. [leighsales Leigh Sales
    My guest tonight is the Treasurer Wayne Swan #abc730]
    Hmm. Not being interviewed by Uhlmann. Hmm.

    Is he on holidays, or has he been put on (in management parlance) “Special Projects”?

  31. BK’s favourite Repug canididate Rick Perry

    Going to send US troops into Mexico!

    I guess Australia won’t have to follow them there.

  32. Email. Me. Viky . To. Many sceptics here. Can. U imagine. How. I would be riduculed

    Or ask. will. To send. Me. Your. Email. Promise. Not. To bother. U. Just.one. off

    These sight are. Best. Enjoyed. By. Non. Skeptics
    Not. To many. Of. The spiritual. Kinds here

    I think. Is really. Only. Meant for those who just. End. Up there. But I. Think. U. Will. Enjoy. It

    O hand in case. Are all wondering. Its. Not reigious

  33. Danny Lewis

    [But once that happens, watch out! It won’t just be more unhinging it will be the final unravelling.

    Stand clear to avoid being hit by flying shrapnel]

    So stock up on pocorn and wear one of these http://tiny.cc/80ggc ?

  34. [Is he on holidays, or has he been put on (in management parlance) “Special Projects”?]
    Gardening leave?

  35. Mr Katter’s 20 points. Could any Labor Government live with them? My tentative answers in brackets after each point.

    1. Creation of a National Energy Grid facilitating resource development (yes), the decentralisation of population (yes, depending) and clean energy resources (yes).

    2. The removal of the tax on Australian-produced bio-fuels (yes) and the introduction of a statutory 10 per cent bio-fuel (ethanol) content in all petrol rising to 22 per cent (as in Brazil). (yes).

    3. Address the two chain oligopoly in the Australian food retailing sector. The option of divestment (a maximum market share for any chain of 22.5 per cent only) and/or a maximum mark-up of 100 per cent between the farm gate/factory price and the retail price. (yes)

    4. No carbon tax. (no). No emissions trading scheme.(no).

    5. No mining tax. (no)

    6. Return of recreational freedoms to traditional pursuits of fishing, camping and outdoor sports and activities. (yes, depending) This includes the removal of the Wild Rivers Legislation. (yes but it would depend on Mr Abbott to say ‘yes’ in the Senate.

    7. Provision of title deeds providing ownership of homes, businesses and farms … to indigenous communities. (yes but it would require Mr Abbott ot say ‘yes’ in the Senate.

    8. Legislation to ensure that the constitutional right to full compensation for the taking of property by government be extended also to the taking of any property “rights” by government [such as land-clearing by farmers]. (yes)

    9. Commitment to the use of some part of the Future Fund for the creation of a national development corporation for major infrastructure and strategically important industries. (yes)

    10. Restoration of collective bargaining rights to Australian farmers. Where a majority of farmers in an industry request collective bargaining arrangements, they be provided. (maybe. Don’t know what it means)

    11. Rural and country hospitals and dental services will be placed under the control of a restored local hospital board and that funding be delivered from Canberra directly to these hospital boards.(yes)

    12. Agreement that where a food or plant import licence has not been approved, approval can only be granted when the country of origin can establish that is has no endemic diseases that can be imported into Australia. (yes, already the case)

    13. The utilisation of 3 per cent of northern Australia’s abundance of water to enable irrigation for small areas of agricultural land sufficient to guarantee a healthy growth in Australia’s agricultural sector and to provide food security for our people. (yes)

    14. Establish a taskforce to secure action to provide: all-weather anchorage roughly every 30 km; … micro resource development at five towns in the Queensland Gulf and Mid-West; … a port to service the southern Gulf of Carpentaria; upgrading the McEwen highway. (costs a motsa and does not make much sense in aything other than pork-barrelling terms, but could be a part-yes)

    15. Government-provided solar hot water systems and/or other measures to reduce the money problems on our older generation caused by rapidly escalating costs for rates, electricity, insurances, car registration and other similar charges, which, increasingly, they are unable to meet. (yes)

    16. Equal rates of government-funded parental assistance for working mothers and stay-at-home mums as well. (yes)

    17. An agreement that the Commonwealth meet with the Queensland Government and secure relaxation of restrictions on land sub-division and boundary realignment prohibitions. (yes to the meeting)

    18. Address the unfair and artificially high value of the Australian dollar, on which upward pressure is placed by interest rates that are out of step with international benchmarks. (no; an independent Reserve Bank is the cornerstone of our economy)

    19. Introduce an open, public registry of foreign ownership of farm land, housing, public and private corporations and re-examine the thresholds on foreign ownership requiring FIRB approval. (yes)

    20. A review of zone allowances for remote areas. Tax should be levied on “real” purchasing power, not monetary purchasing power, as $100 buys a lot less goods and services in Cloncurry than it does in Brisbane. (yes).

    IMHO, the questionable ones can probably be negotiated into an agreement. The two that are non-negotiable for Labor are an ETS and the Independence of the Reserve Bank. The latter would be non-negotiable for Mr Abbott, although who can tell. Mr Abbott and Mr Katter would be as one on the remaining question: no ETS.

    Ergo, there is no way that Mr Rudd will become PM with the assistance of Mr Katter in the absence of Mr Wilkie.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/bob-katters-20point-wish-list-20100902-14rv2.html#ixzz1Zg7P4fTA

  36. kezza,

    That confirms the latest population trend is a move back to Mexico from the USA because of lack of opportunity and too much violence in the USA.

  38. This little black duck

    [Is he on holidays, or has he been put on (in management parlance) “Special Projects”?

    Gardening leave?]

    Either that or the ABC’s Yakutsk Correspondent. Maybe even a special on winter gardens in Yakutsk ?

  41. Oops, I left out a discussion of the mining tax. Labor would say no, but might be able to arrange for some of the infrastructure funding to head further north than it otherwise would, to the satisfaction of Mr Katter.

  42. Danny. So. Far. Ess,is. The only. Poll.for. me its done. On. Line will be interesting to see if its

    Mentioned anywhere. May. Be. We willlkeep. It. A. Secret. Fo. Now

  43. Danny. So. Far. Ess,is. The only. Poll.for. me its done. On. Line will be interesting to see if its

    Mentioned anywhere. May. Be. We willlkeep. It. A. Secret. Fo. Now

  44. [Essential Research: 55-45, down from 56-44. Labor’s best result since July 25 on two-party, since June 14 on primary.]

    Thanks William. What is the PV?

  47. Boerwar

    [10. Restoration of collective bargaining rights to Australian farmers. Where a majority of farmers in an industry request collective bargaining arrangements, they be provided. (maybe. Don’t know what it means) ]

    Could be to do with the BIG mistake Australian cow cockies made by cashing in their co-ops. Their Kiwi brethren did not and continue reaping the benefits from Fonterra whislt the poor Aussie cow cockies get screwed over by Coles and Woolies.

  49. Boerwar

    You can be sure that when JoHo and others open their mouths, lies automatically follow. Btw Ms Mirabella has been quiet lately. Wonder why?

  50. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, October 3, 2011 at 12:43 pm | Permalink
    kezza,

    That confirms the latest population trend is a move back to Mexico from the USA because of lack of opportunity and too much violence in the USA]
    Sorry, GG, forgot to mention the US troops in Mexico was about the WAR ON DRUGS!

    Can’t have those Mexicans taking all the dosh from the Repug drug cartels.

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