Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd

Dreadful though the headline figures are for Labor, the latest monthly Nielsen poll might have offered them cause for relief, with no change to the Coalition’s two-party lead of 58-42. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 27 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 13 per cent. However, the poll offers new torment for Julia Gillard by finding Labor would be ahead 52-48 if it were led by Kevin Rudd. The primary votes, we are told, would be 42 per cent to Labor, 43 per cent to the Coalition and 9 per cent to the Greens. Rudd has 44 per cent support as preferred Labor leader, against 19 per cent for Gillard, 10 per cent for Stephen Smith, 8 per cent for Simon Crean, 5 per cent for Bill Shorten and 4 per cent for Greg Combet. There has also been a sharp drop in Julia Gillard’s already miserable personal ratings: approval down six to 32 per cent, disapproval up five to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on both approval (43 per cent) and disapproval (52 per cent), and now leads as preferred prime minister 48-40, out from 47-44. I should have full tables complete with state breakdowns tomorrow, along with the regular Monday Essential Research results.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:

The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds 54 per cent of voters believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Just 25 per cent say they should be sent to another country to be assessed while 16 per cent believe the boats should be “sent back” and 4 per cent don’t know … When the question was asked a month ago, 28 per cent favoured offshore processing and 53 per cent onshore processing.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research. Another poll showing Labor’s position has not actually worsened since the High Court’s ruling on the Malaysia solution: indeed, the Coalition’s two-party lead has narrowed slightly, from 57-43 to 56-44. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 32 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent and the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Unfortunately for Gillard, this survey features Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which show Gillard beating her previous worst result from July with 28 per cent approval (down seven from August and one from July) and 64 per cent disapproval (up nine from August and two from July). Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent, and leads 40-36 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 in August. A question on processing of asylum seekers is bewilderingly at odds with the Nielsen results (see above), with 36 per cent rather than 54 per cent favouring processing in Australia. “Sent to another country” has 53 per cent – here the difference with Nielsen can partly be accounted for by the absence of a “sent back” option. You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage, but Andrew Wilkie’s pokies reforms have overwhelming support: 67 per cent (up two from April) in favour against 25 per cent opposed. Forty per cent support changes to industrial relations laws when it is put to respondents that doing so will increase productivity, but 42 per cent remain opposed.

Full tables from the Nielsen poll can be viewed here. With results for September, we can now construct Newspoll-style state-level results for the third quarter with reasonable sample sizes by combining the last three monthly polls. For the Nielsen figures, samples and margins of error are about 1300 and 2.7 per cent for New South Wales; 1000 and 3.1 per cent for Victoria; 750 and 3.6 per cent for Queensland; 390 and 5.0 per cent for Western Australia; 330 and 5.4 per cent for South Australia.

  Apr-Jun Jul-Sep
  Newspoll Nielsen Nielsen Swing
Total 46 43 41 9.1
NSW 45 41 41 7.5
Vic 52 47 48 7.0
Qld 42 40 35 9.9
WA 42 44 39 4.6
SA 50 47 40 13.2

Some more preselection snippets to add to the ones from Friday, with Tasmania being a bit of a theme:

• Brigadier Andrew Nikolic won Liberal preselection for Bass without opposition in July. Nikolic had most recently run the Defence Department’s international policy division, after previous service in the army including postings in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was rated a favourite for the preselection ahead of the 2010 election, but withdrew citing work and family reasons.

• The Launceston Examiner reported in late July that Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat in Braddon at the state election, had been sounded out as a candidate for the federal seat of Braddon by Senator Eric Abetz and state party president Richard Chugg. However, Whiteley was quoted saying he would prefer a return to state politics. Whiteley is now chief executive of council-owned Burnie Sports and Events.

• The Liberals have again endorsed wool marketer Eric Hutchinson to run against Dick Adams, Labor’s member of 18 years in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons. There was earlier talk that former Senator Guy Barnett might be interested in running for the seat.

• The retirement announcement of Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons excited some speculation that recently ousted Victorian Premier John Brumby, who held the seat from 1983 until his defeat in 1990, might seize the opportunity for a federal comeback. However, the Ballarat Courier reports that Brumby has ruled himself out. The report also said former Bendigo Health and Ambulance Victoria chairwoman and lawyer Marika McMahon had long been touted as Gibbons’ possible successor.

• Rick Wilson, Katanning farmer, divisional branch president and Pastoralists and Graziers committee chairman, will be the Liberal candidate in the WA seat of O’Connor, where the Nationals’ Tony Crook unseated Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Wilson won an April preselection over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie consultant Ross Wood.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10,653 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd”

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  2. Scarpat

    I’ll do an impression:

    EOJebdbn pinko svh’isvh djwvhn ; reed my laist poost, ds;kvn ;avn;rln dnrlkgnl’.corwj][1
    yu fleaa jv
    dgkbnetlkbnektbn sayed f;vre;Labor rite is rite bn ddfrekehotiu fgnrgn, yuis skum jv

    qehgn; you ainti Christses; wrong sfkvjnoeh wrlgbrkrbvkireb. dib blugers dio.jv, & youse mungrels

  3. Will be interesting to see QT tomorrow.

    I’d say the tactic from the Ooppoo will be Boats, Boats, Boats. Morrison is already on record as saying that the Govt should put up ammendments to the migration act as soon as possible isn’t he?

    Hopefully the Govt will stick to matters of some actual import, like Carbon Price and MRRT.

  5. [101

    gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:38 am | Permalink

    frank

    perversely TP was providing advanced fib and meeja talking points

    i hope bilbo allows him back onboard

    Its good to get the fibs moves telegrapged in advance
    ]

    Unless TP was really a Limited News Journo under an assumed name 🙂

  7. [imacca

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:44 am | Permalink

    Will be interesting to see QT tomorrow.

    I’d say the tactic from the Ooppoo will be Boats, Boats, Boats. Morrison is already on record as saying that the Govt should put up ammendments to the migration act as soon as possible isn’t he?

    Hopefully the Govt will stick to matters of some actual import, like Carbon Price and MRRT.
    ]

    will there be a condolence motion to mark 10th Anniversary of 9/11 ? or a pointed question re terrorism ?

  9. I am interested in the next Newspoll to see if the (initial) blocking of Thomson being with his wife at the time of their child’s birth and the High Court’s AS decision have any influence on Abbott’s approval/disapproval rating (the HC decision left the would be Emperor without any clothes as much as hitting the Government and people may come to see that). Today’s Nielsen Poll may be too close those events to have picked up any movement.

  10. gusface
    Teddy bears? Grow up lad. Get yourself a woman who laughs at your jokes, within reason, and pours you a drink when you deserve one. And she is real and not stuffed with fibrous matter. You can do better. Spike that teddy. It’s time.

  20. This is an interesting poll. I think it underscores how Federal politics is becoming ever-more quasi-presidential. It also suggests that Abbott and the Liberals are not sure things next time around. If Labor could make such gains in a single step, it possibly suggests that any credible new leader could change the rankings. Maybe Stephen Smith will yet be drafted.

  21. Stephen has a lot going for him as a candidate. For a start, he obviously has the “safest hands” in Canberra – imperturbable, firm-minded, clear-thinking, intelligent, articulate, tough, disciplined and cautious. As well, he has generally shown excellent political judgment and is well-known as a capable administrator. His personal style is fluent and, if understated at times, shows the depth of preparation he puts into his work. He has two other invaluable qualities. One is patience. The other is determination.

    I think it is notable that his political peers in other countries – the US, UK, Europe, China – have high regard for him. I suspect we have yet to see the best of Stephen.

  22. [It also suggests that Abbott and the Liberals are not sure things next time around. If Labor could make such gains in a single step, it possibly suggests that any credible new leader could change the rankings. Maybe Stephen Smith will yet be drafted. ]

    It also suggests that if Gillard can turn her ratings around (and again, two years is a long time), voters will return to the ALP.

  23. All this leadership speculation just plays into the Lib/Nat, msm and big-money-interests’ hands. They want PM Gillard gone because she is the threat.

  26. OK Bludgers, why worry about local politics while the world will be hit with another tsunami.

    sell your house, buy US dollars and move into a tent. But then Mr. Dent has got a book to sell.

    [‘Tsunami’ to hit Australian real estate, September 11, 2011 – 7:27PM – Australia’s love affair with property is about to turn sour as an “economic tsunami” looks set to hit world markets, American economic forecaster Harry Dent says. Mr Dent, who arrived in Australia on Sunday, predicts the world will experience a second, deeper downturn, which will arrive between the beginning and the middle of next year.

    Starting in Europe, the downturn will spread to the US, China and eventually Australia, he said.

    ………………….. To survive the incoming “economic tsunami”, Mr Dent said investors should sell their excess real estate and buy up assets in US dollars. “Gold and silver are going to crash, they’re a bubble,” he said.]

    http://smh.domain.com.au/tsunami-to-hit-australian-real-estate-20110911-1k413.html

  31. Morning all.

    Finns, thanks for the piece on Harry S Dent, which I find funny. He is a living example of the saying: even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

    Some past predictions of his that were spectacularly FALSE:
    – Dow would reach 40,000 (in 2004!)
    – he was still predicting the Dow would go up (to a lower limit) in 2007!

    In short, he did not see the GFC coming, and makes his living promoting himself as an investment advisor. His real ability is in getting so much MSM to pick up his salesmanship as news.

    He bases his predictions on analysis of past spending patterns. If spending patterns change his views are about as reliable as a bet on a St Kilda – Essendon grand final.

  33. Fed up with real polls, now we get fantasy polls.

    The the Politico-Media complex is trying to tell the punters who really runs the country. And it’s not the punters.

    Deprived of their Thomson Fantasy, Their Old Boyfriend Fantasy and their Boats Fantasy they’re bringing back the Rudd Resurgent Dream to generate a little excitement.

    It doesn’t matter to them that this session of parliament will see some momentous changes… or perhaps it does.

    Government in Australia is officially no longer a matter of policy or issues. It’s a simple Reality TV personality swap.

    In the media’s world swapping the newsreader and putting up some billboards along the commuter roads with the new person looking grave is a meaningful way to address flagging ratings. Why wouldn’t it work in the national government?

    After a few weeks (if that long) they can start to write stories about how the party is in buyer’s remorse, about how shallow they were to think changing a leader back to a failed one would make any difference… or even (if they’re real cheeky) about how Labor is so poll driven nowadays.

    Meanwhile no Carbon Tax legislation would get through, the government would probably collapse, an election would be called and Abbott would win it.

    That’d be enough column inches to stretch from here to the Moon and back.

    National politics has become a total soap opera, run by and for the media. The transition is almost complete. All we need now is for Bolt to stand for a safe Liberal seat and the farce will be total.

  34. Well this is a psephological site and so there is no point in avoiding the elephant in the room, though I don’t wish to wind up sounding like TP. The Neilsen Poll in Fairfax can’t be ignored. It has a substantial sample (1400) and questions were not evidently biased against the government. I don’t perceive Fairfax as being anti-Labor. Some in it obviously have residual dislike of the former NSW State Labor regime and those who were associated with it. But still, the poll is troubling for Gillard.

    Even the fact that issue related questions suggest that a majority (54%) now want on-shore processing of refugees is concerning. If true, Gillard and Bowen need to drop the “breaking the business model” line fast. It will annoy, not resonate.

    Labor should not do backflips (stick to NBN, Carbon tax, tax & super reforms) but the HC decision was an opportunity to make a policy change. It needs to be grasped. If it isn’t, and the poll slide continues, then neither Gillard nor Rudd would have any chance. Focus on the policy first, selling it well, and hopefully leadership will disappear as an issue. If not, then a lot of caucus are going to have to either swallow their pride or look for new jobs.

  38. FInns 132

    Yes I think that is true of Dent and many like him. They project the past to predict the future. USA number one is the past they cannot let go of. So their ability to predict is zero.

  40. [Labor should not do backflips (stick to NBN, Carbon tax, tax & super reforms) but the HC decision was an opportunity to make a policy change. It needs to be grasped.]

    Soc, like Sam, the Govt must hold its nerve.

  41. Thanks BK. Off to work; one comfort in Nielsen: Abbott’s numbers are still not great (43% support) so final outcome is still up for grabs.

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