Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd

Dreadful though the headline figures are for Labor, the latest monthly Nielsen poll might have offered them cause for relief, with no change to the Coalition’s two-party lead of 58-42. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 27 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 13 per cent. However, the poll offers new torment for Julia Gillard by finding Labor would be ahead 52-48 if it were led by Kevin Rudd. The primary votes, we are told, would be 42 per cent to Labor, 43 per cent to the Coalition and 9 per cent to the Greens. Rudd has 44 per cent support as preferred Labor leader, against 19 per cent for Gillard, 10 per cent for Stephen Smith, 8 per cent for Simon Crean, 5 per cent for Bill Shorten and 4 per cent for Greg Combet. There has also been a sharp drop in Julia Gillard’s already miserable personal ratings: approval down six to 32 per cent, disapproval up five to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on both approval (43 per cent) and disapproval (52 per cent), and now leads as preferred prime minister 48-40, out from 47-44. I should have full tables complete with state breakdowns tomorrow, along with the regular Monday Essential Research results.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:

The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds 54 per cent of voters believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Just 25 per cent say they should be sent to another country to be assessed while 16 per cent believe the boats should be “sent back” and 4 per cent don’t know … When the question was asked a month ago, 28 per cent favoured offshore processing and 53 per cent onshore processing.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research. Another poll showing Labor’s position has not actually worsened since the High Court’s ruling on the Malaysia solution: indeed, the Coalition’s two-party lead has narrowed slightly, from 57-43 to 56-44. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 32 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent and the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Unfortunately for Gillard, this survey features Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which show Gillard beating her previous worst result from July with 28 per cent approval (down seven from August and one from July) and 64 per cent disapproval (up nine from August and two from July). Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent, and leads 40-36 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 in August. A question on processing of asylum seekers is bewilderingly at odds with the Nielsen results (see above), with 36 per cent rather than 54 per cent favouring processing in Australia. “Sent to another country” has 53 per cent – here the difference with Nielsen can partly be accounted for by the absence of a “sent back” option. You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage, but Andrew Wilkie’s pokies reforms have overwhelming support: 67 per cent (up two from April) in favour against 25 per cent opposed. Forty per cent support changes to industrial relations laws when it is put to respondents that doing so will increase productivity, but 42 per cent remain opposed.

Full tables from the Nielsen poll can be viewed here. With results for September, we can now construct Newspoll-style state-level results for the third quarter with reasonable sample sizes by combining the last three monthly polls. For the Nielsen figures, samples and margins of error are about 1300 and 2.7 per cent for New South Wales; 1000 and 3.1 per cent for Victoria; 750 and 3.6 per cent for Queensland; 390 and 5.0 per cent for Western Australia; 330 and 5.4 per cent for South Australia.

  Apr-Jun Jul-Sep
  Newspoll Nielsen Nielsen Swing
Total 46 43 41 9.1
NSW 45 41 41 7.5
Vic 52 47 48 7.0
Qld 42 40 35 9.9
WA 42 44 39 4.6
SA 50 47 40 13.2

Some more preselection snippets to add to the ones from Friday, with Tasmania being a bit of a theme:

• Brigadier Andrew Nikolic won Liberal preselection for Bass without opposition in July. Nikolic had most recently run the Defence Department’s international policy division, after previous service in the army including postings in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was rated a favourite for the preselection ahead of the 2010 election, but withdrew citing work and family reasons.

• The Launceston Examiner reported in late July that Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat in Braddon at the state election, had been sounded out as a candidate for the federal seat of Braddon by Senator Eric Abetz and state party president Richard Chugg. However, Whiteley was quoted saying he would prefer a return to state politics. Whiteley is now chief executive of council-owned Burnie Sports and Events.

• The Liberals have again endorsed wool marketer Eric Hutchinson to run against Dick Adams, Labor’s member of 18 years in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons. There was earlier talk that former Senator Guy Barnett might be interested in running for the seat.

• The retirement announcement of Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons excited some speculation that recently ousted Victorian Premier John Brumby, who held the seat from 1983 until his defeat in 1990, might seize the opportunity for a federal comeback. However, the Ballarat Courier reports that Brumby has ruled himself out. The report also said former Bendigo Health and Ambulance Victoria chairwoman and lawyer Marika McMahon had long been touted as Gibbons’ possible successor.

• Rick Wilson, Katanning farmer, divisional branch president and Pastoralists and Graziers committee chairman, will be the Liberal candidate in the WA seat of O’Connor, where the Nationals’ Tony Crook unseated Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Wilson won an April preselection over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie consultant Ross Wood.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10,653 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd”

Comments Page 2 of 214
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  1. No – one more comment. The Libs have finally realised that the only people who can shift PM Gillard is the Labor caucus. So that is who they working on. Big time. I emailed my local member to tell him I was backing JG and thanked him for backing her as well as well as supporting an enquiry into the media. I got a very encouraging reply. Fight fire with fire – contact your local Labor MP and let him know that you are not falling for the lasted ploy and that you expect them to hold their nerve.

  4. Hartcher has the key problem pegged; he problem with no answer as the elders such as Cavalier, Faulkner, and Tanner have said, or would say:
    [In particular, the Right factional operatives who staged the coup, the faceless men, are determined to keep Rudd out. Their misjudgment has cost them their political credibility but they retain their organisational prowess. And the Right still has the numbers.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/theres-no-easy-answer-20110911-1k4bc.html#ixzz1Xei8v9f8

  5. [leadership deficiency has been made 10 times worse by her own leadership incapacity.]

    Cant really see this “leadership incapacity” that some keep banging on about. The ALP under Gillard have so far gotten their entire legislative program through. And that is a nearly hung parliament.

    This session is a biggy, but it looks like Carbon Price will get done (probably the most controversial and politically difficult program in living memory), NBN (biggest infrastructure program ever), and the MRRT (an actual new revenue source).

    About here would probably be appropriate to insert dah Finn’s numbers. 🙂

    If she’s leading a Govt that can get that done, and have a good stab at delivering a surplus budget in 2013, then yup, she is obviously leading a good team, and i think it speaks well of her leadership. They have had to negotiate with other MP’s on some things and shift their positions a bit, but I actually think that’s a good thing.

    And then their is the glaringly obvious bit about how she negotiated the ALP into executive govt in the first place following their less than stellar election result.

    For me, the measure of Gillard herself is not the actual campaign or election result. That’s history. Its how she has managed to play the cards dealt her after that. I don’t completely agree with everything her Govt has done, (particularly on AS) but overall its been effective, practical, and seems to me to have generally managed in the best interests of the people of this country, rather than narrow, noisy, well resourced interest groups.

  8. Gusface
    [that a union or two rejected you
    for some, rejection is a bitter pill to swallow
    my advice
    have a beer, it will help wash it down]
    What? What William said.

  13. [we are about to enter the bareknuckle stage]

    It has been bareknuckle for the past year. So what is the more likely happening this week? Carbon Price Legislation being introduced into Parliament or a change of Labor leadership? Is going to be a week where one walks or chews gum? Are the questions and, or or and/or?

  14. [59

    gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    puff

    and the meeja was so hard on him

    NOT
    ]

    Compare how the WA Media”Criticise” Colin Barnett compared to Geoff Gallopp and Alan Carpenter.

    It sums up our media in a nutshell.

  15. Smell the desperation in that one paragraph jv has (kindly) posted. They are playing every card in their hand, pressing every button and blowing every dog whistle they own.
    Wow! PM Julia Gillard is one formidable opponent. She must be. Every day my admiration grows.

    I have a plane to catch early – so I really must go. I would love to stay though. This is going be a propaganda analyst’s dream.

  16. Bilbo @7,

    [Are these poll results confected as well?]

    No, but they give one pause for thought about the mindset of the voters and the reliability of the whole exercise.

  20. [ the faceless men, are determined to keep Rudd out. ]

    if these are the same faceless men that the meeja used as a scare campaign back inthe 60/70’s

    they must be centarians

    NOW THAT WOULD BE A STORY

  23. [gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:01 am | Permalink

    the faceless men, are determined to keep Rudd out.

    if these are the same faceless men that the meeja used as a scare campaign back inthe 60/70′s

    they must be centarians

    NOW THAT WOULD BE A STORY
    ]
    Mark Arbib is the Friggen Sports Minister – hardly Faceless.

  25. gusface
    Is that San Remo-speak, or possibly a Northlakes dialect? Watanobbi?
    Anyway, send through any English translation if you can get one.

  28. JV
    I can understand Gus easily. I never had a problem with Ron’s posts either. So there are the two ends of the spectrum, but it would be boring if all they styles were the same.

    BTW, my comments get more abbreviated as the night wears on.

  29. Mark Arbib is kept in a dark room in a straitjacket. He takes occasional calls from a “Mr Brown” who has a strong American accent. The receptionist says the caller keeps mentioning some “sauce”.

    Arbib is allowed to speak only through a medium who appears before him rarely to tell him what he thinks. The medium is known to him only as ” Lindsay”.

  30. frank

    wasnt joe there cos howie had said he had a great plan for Joe taking over after the GFC

    Joe heard it as taking over KFC

    hence his look of disappointment as he leaves

    👿

  32. [jaundiced view

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:11 am | Permalink

    Mark Arbib is kept in a dark room in a straitjacket. He takes occasional calls from a “Mr Brown” who has a strong American accent. The receptionist says the caller keeps mentioning some “sauce”.

    Arbib is allowed to speak only through a medium who appears before him rarely to tell him what he thinks. The medium is known to him only as ” Lindsay”.
    ]

    As opposed to Scott Morrison who only talks to people known as 2GB 🙂

  33. Puff
    [I never had a problem with Ron’s posts either.]
    You’re a more interpretational type than me then. r/Ron just got to the stage where the term ‘incomprehensible’ was inadequate for me. 😀

  36. [84

    jaundiced view

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:18 am | Permalink

    gusface
    Discord? Is that what you call independent opinions? That is, independent of Labor HO?
    ]

    As opposed to random thoughts removed via one’s Arsk 🙂

  38. The Hartcher editorial is interesting as a showcase of the media groupthink that’s developed in the last couple of weeks. All the assumptions are there:

    -Popularity is everything.
    -Rudd is the ‘obvious’ solution.
    -Everyone’s saying it. Why would everyone be wrong?
    -Nothing can turn Gillard’s position around, not even a little.
    -Rudd can somehow manage minority government perfectly cause he’s so awesome.

    as is what gets conveniently left out:

    -Rudd’s ‘numbers’ are way higher among Coalition voters.
    -Its two years out from an election.
    -Labor is on the brink of some really tough reforms and a shitstorm of noise is trying to make them even harder.
    -Rudd’s dismissal was never just about polls.

    And here’s a question. Has anyone ever polled to see how many people know that what happened to Rudd (however you may feel about) was legal? I really think that with the emotive way it gets written about a lot of people think it was literally illegal, and that confusion colours their opinions of the government as a whole.

  39. [For me, the measure of Gillard herself is not the actual campaign or election result. That’s history. Its how she has managed to play the cards dealt her after that. I don’t completely agree with everything her Govt has done, (particularly on AS) but overall its been effective, practical, and seems to me to have generally managed in the best interests of the people of this country, rather than narrow, noisy, well resourced interest groups.]

    imacca,

    I agree with your statement. It would be absurd for the Labor Party to lose its nerve at this stage of proceedings. To change leaders at this stage would be giving control of the agenda, that is what happens in the Parliament, to its opponents. There is around two years to go to the next election. The arrow of time moves forward. Kevin Rudd, has had his time as leader. If a change were to be made it would need to be someone else. There is plenty of time to change leaders much closer to the election. For now and the months to come the focus should be on policy implemention.

  40. JV
    All it takes is an open mind, patience and an belief that it is your responsibility to understand, as much as it is the messenger’s responsibility to provide as good as mode of communication as they can.

  42. [Rudd’s ‘numbers’ are way higher among Coalition voters.
    ]

    conservative Voters loved Rudd cos he was a mini Howard – and that the weathervanes over at LP said as much when he was elected leader etc – yet they mourned his loss like a death in the family – all because he was a Quincelander.

  45. The ‘change of leaders’ meme has even infected this board. If the ALP was stupid enough to change leaders before the next federal election they would deserve the defeat they most assuredly would get.

  46. [Yes, I agree, but I don’t bother too much if I get a sense of blog abuse, into which r/Ron also sank toward the end.]

    jv,

    without being able to decipher Ron’s posts how can you be sure it was abuse?

  47. [The ‘change of leaders’ meme has even infected this board. If the ALP was stupid enough to change leaders before the next federal election they would deserve the defeat they most assuredly would get.]

    yes indeed.

  49. [94

    gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:31 am | Permalink

    frank

    btw

    where are the fib posters

    aside from mercenary jv, they seem to have been ahem quite
    ]

    Funny that a meh poll with a “Rudd” question and they go silent – especially one EvanwithanIQof14 🙂

    notice the last two polls the movement has been amongst tyhe Greens.

  50. [To change leaders at this stage would be giving control of the agenda, that is what happens in the Parliament, to its opponents.]

    If you are including the media commentators in “opponents” i’ll agree with that. 🙂

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