Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd

Dreadful though the headline figures are for Labor, the latest monthly Nielsen poll might have offered them cause for relief, with no change to the Coalition’s two-party lead of 58-42. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 27 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 13 per cent. However, the poll offers new torment for Julia Gillard by finding Labor would be ahead 52-48 if it were led by Kevin Rudd. The primary votes, we are told, would be 42 per cent to Labor, 43 per cent to the Coalition and 9 per cent to the Greens. Rudd has 44 per cent support as preferred Labor leader, against 19 per cent for Gillard, 10 per cent for Stephen Smith, 8 per cent for Simon Crean, 5 per cent for Bill Shorten and 4 per cent for Greg Combet. There has also been a sharp drop in Julia Gillard’s already miserable personal ratings: approval down six to 32 per cent, disapproval up five to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on both approval (43 per cent) and disapproval (52 per cent), and now leads as preferred prime minister 48-40, out from 47-44. I should have full tables complete with state breakdowns tomorrow, along with the regular Monday Essential Research results.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:

The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds 54 per cent of voters believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Just 25 per cent say they should be sent to another country to be assessed while 16 per cent believe the boats should be “sent back” and 4 per cent don’t know … When the question was asked a month ago, 28 per cent favoured offshore processing and 53 per cent onshore processing.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research. Another poll showing Labor’s position has not actually worsened since the High Court’s ruling on the Malaysia solution: indeed, the Coalition’s two-party lead has narrowed slightly, from 57-43 to 56-44. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 32 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent and the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Unfortunately for Gillard, this survey features Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which show Gillard beating her previous worst result from July with 28 per cent approval (down seven from August and one from July) and 64 per cent disapproval (up nine from August and two from July). Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent, and leads 40-36 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 in August. A question on processing of asylum seekers is bewilderingly at odds with the Nielsen results (see above), with 36 per cent rather than 54 per cent favouring processing in Australia. “Sent to another country” has 53 per cent – here the difference with Nielsen can partly be accounted for by the absence of a “sent back” option. You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage, but Andrew Wilkie’s pokies reforms have overwhelming support: 67 per cent (up two from April) in favour against 25 per cent opposed. Forty per cent support changes to industrial relations laws when it is put to respondents that doing so will increase productivity, but 42 per cent remain opposed.

Full tables from the Nielsen poll can be viewed here. With results for September, we can now construct Newspoll-style state-level results for the third quarter with reasonable sample sizes by combining the last three monthly polls. For the Nielsen figures, samples and margins of error are about 1300 and 2.7 per cent for New South Wales; 1000 and 3.1 per cent for Victoria; 750 and 3.6 per cent for Queensland; 390 and 5.0 per cent for Western Australia; 330 and 5.4 per cent for South Australia.

  Apr-Jun Jul-Sep
  Newspoll Nielsen Nielsen Swing
Total 46 43 41 9.1
NSW 45 41 41 7.5
Vic 52 47 48 7.0
Qld 42 40 35 9.9
WA 42 44 39 4.6
SA 50 47 40 13.2

Some more preselection snippets to add to the ones from Friday, with Tasmania being a bit of a theme:

• Brigadier Andrew Nikolic won Liberal preselection for Bass without opposition in July. Nikolic had most recently run the Defence Department’s international policy division, after previous service in the army including postings in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was rated a favourite for the preselection ahead of the 2010 election, but withdrew citing work and family reasons.

• The Launceston Examiner reported in late July that Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat in Braddon at the state election, had been sounded out as a candidate for the federal seat of Braddon by Senator Eric Abetz and state party president Richard Chugg. However, Whiteley was quoted saying he would prefer a return to state politics. Whiteley is now chief executive of council-owned Burnie Sports and Events.

• The Liberals have again endorsed wool marketer Eric Hutchinson to run against Dick Adams, Labor’s member of 18 years in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons. There was earlier talk that former Senator Guy Barnett might be interested in running for the seat.

• The retirement announcement of Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons excited some speculation that recently ousted Victorian Premier John Brumby, who held the seat from 1983 until his defeat in 1990, might seize the opportunity for a federal comeback. However, the Ballarat Courier reports that Brumby has ruled himself out. The report also said former Bendigo Health and Ambulance Victoria chairwoman and lawyer Marika McMahon had long been touted as Gibbons’ possible successor.

• Rick Wilson, Katanning farmer, divisional branch president and Pastoralists and Graziers committee chairman, will be the Liberal candidate in the WA seat of O’Connor, where the Nationals’ Tony Crook unseated Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Wilson won an April preselection over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie consultant Ross Wood.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10,653 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd”

Comments Page 1 of 214
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  1. So what this is saying is that it is not the CT or the mining tax or the AS policy that’s the problem. Oh, no it’s all Gillard. Give me a break.

  2. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP leader: Gillard 19 Rudd 44 Smith 10 Crean 8 Shorten 5 Combet 4 #auspol

    Hmmm

    that should shut up the trolls for a while

  3. How mysterious that they’re giving the media their story for the week. Who cares about the carbon price process going on or anything else when we can just obsess about Kevin freaking Rudd some more?

  8. [

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    @

    @dshban Gillard only gets 6% for ALP leader from L/NP voters, Rudd 43 Smith 13 Crean 12. #Nielsen #auspol

    9 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP leader (ALP voters): Gillard 36 Rudd 44 Smith 7 Crean 4 Combet 4 Shorten 3 #auspol

    3 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP leader: Gillard 19 Rudd 44 Smith 10 Crean 8 Shorten 5 Combet 4 #auspol

    6 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes with Rudd as leader: ALP 42 (+15) L/NP 43 (-5) GRN 9 (-4) #auspol

    9 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred with Rudd as leader: ALP 52 (+10) L/NP 48 (-10) #auspol

    11 minutes ago]

  10. [Are these poll results confected as well? ]

    They’re not confected, but I think there’s really a feedback cycle between polls and media, especially given these are polls taken in the aftermath of countless ‘speculation’ about Gillard and how Rudd would be so much totally awesomer cause he’s popular and stuff.

  12. I suspect that there is a certain element of “The grass is always greener on the other side” in the “If Rudd was leader” results. Or in the Case of the ALP versus Green result “The ALP is always Greener on the other side”.

  13. [gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    bilbo

    nup

    but public opinion can and is manipulated

    aamoi

    do u think JG gets “clear air’ from the meeja
    ]

    Why do you think the MSM Meme last week was “The Leadership” ?

    Somehow I doubt they teach media studies as part of his PhD.

  14. [I guess the Coalition’s vote is a little soft]

    At 58 per cent, it can afford to be. I suspect “Rudd Labor” does well in a hypothetical poll because it seems like a “middle way” that wavering respondents can follow between left and right options. That wouldn’t be the case at an actual election. Furthermore, the Coalition would kill them in a campaign by playing on their disunity.

  16. I will throw one comment in – the 1% to the Greens is perhaps a reaction to the HC ruling – but nothing to Abbot. Interesting.

    And just to acknowledge ML’s repeated noting of my peak Abbott comments earlier – I stand by them. Abbott has peaked. Lots of journalist and Liberals openly acknowledge this. The polls are not reflecting this. But my research suggests that the figures are soft. I know that will be howled down by many but that is my reading. Many are punishing Labor for single issues and pretty shallow readings of personalities. When you cast your vote bigger stuff comes into play – and Barry O’Farrell is wasting the NSW honeymoon in a surprisingly stupid set of decisions that smack of hubris.

    Still we are in chicken entrail territory so it is a curiosity rather than a worry. Nite all. Enjoyed reading rather than posting tonight.

    Anyway – tired – flying there and back again -tomorrow who invented work?

  19. spur212

    Thats the other aspect, it’s always been soft (Andrew Elder is keeps saying that and I agree), if people are at least willing to say they’d vote ALP under another scenario. How would that go in real life though, if Rudd came back then couldn’t work with his colleagues, or once a new anti Rudd campaign starts from the right.

  20. [At 58 per cent, it can afford to be. I suspect “Rudd Labor” does well in a hypothetical poll because it seems like a “middle way” that wavering respondents can follow between left and right options. ]

    Plausible. I also think that it has something to do with the way that Rudd’s problems are being forgotten in the media (and maybe the broader public?) due to all the stories about him now just being how popular he is. Which is something else that’d disappear very quickly if he actually was in leadership again.

  21. [Gweneth

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    I will throw one comment in – the 1% to the Greens is perhaps a reaction to the HC ruling – but nothing to Abbot. Interesting.

    And just to acknowledge ML’s repeated noting of my peak Abbott comments earlier – I stand by them. Abbott has peaked. Lots of journalist and Liberals openly acknowledge this. The polls are not reflecting this. But my research suggests that the figures are soft. I know that will be howled down by many but that is my reading. Many are punishing Labor for single issues and pretty shallow readings of personalities. When you cast your vote bigger stuff comes into play – and Barry O’Farrell is wasting the NSW honeymoon in a surprisingly stupid set of decisions that smack of hubris.

    Still we are in chicken entrail territory so it is a curiosity rather than a worry. Nite all. Enjoyed reading rather than posting tonight.

    Anyway – tired – flying there and back again -tomorrow who invented work?
    ]

    I reckon Barnett’s support is also started to fracture – what with increased utility charges – and now the Keelty Report into FESA.

  27. Gary
    hHe problem continues to be what it has been since 2007 (IMHO), only more so since April 2010. Lack of philosophy, vision, morality or policy. It’s been all lurch to the right to take the ground from under the Libs.

    However, Rudd dropping the CPRS after being told to by Gillard, Swan, Arbib, Bitar, Farrell, Feeney, Shorten and the other faction bosses was unacceptable to the electorate, and the polls tanked. Since Gillard was installed in her less than pure white toga the leadership deficiency has been made 10 times worse by her own leadership incapacity.

    Insiders should get over blaming ‘the media’ (except News of course). This is a complete ALP organisational f— up, but no-one can fix it, because the magic ‘numbers’ aren’t there any more at any level to get rid of the daleks.

  28. [GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes with Rudd as leader: ALP 42 (+15) L/NP 43 (-5) GRN 9 (-4) #auspol]

    [A +10 TPP and a +15 primary vote swing if Rudd was leader …

    I guess the Coalition’s vote is a little soft]

    So on the face of it, this poll would seem to indicate that there are a shed load of voters out there who actually do want to vote ALP, but don’t like the current leadership.

    I wonder if, when push comes to shove at an election, those people would actually preference the Coalition, higher than the ALP?? Would they really vote send their apparently beloved Kevin into opposition, AND suffer an Abbott led Coalition for three years?

    They would have to be pretty obsessively into a kind of Rudd personality cult head-space to do that i think.

  30. [Gusface, can you please try and make sense when you’re addressing me.]
    William, why should you be privileged? Why can’t I have some of that?
    😀

  32. Gus,
    They are really trying to neutralise and get rid of PM Gillard. So does 94% of LNP dislike Julia Gillard, or does 94% of LNP dislike Julia Gillard being the PM?

  35. bilbo

    so calling howie

    “the man of steel”

    among other almost sickening salivations by the media was in my imagination?

    clear air is done by orgs like NPR in the USA and the BBC in the UK

    the ABC used to do it too

    until it was totally bent over by the fibs

  36. The “love Rudd” meme is just saying – “I don’t like the sound of the carbon tax because I am not sure I am on top of this issue but I don’t want to vote Liberal.” The current polling is based on confusion about policy not genuine desire to vote for the Coalition. Let’s face it – they have no credible alternative to opt for – and they have been so arrogant as a result of the polls that they are even talking up mandates for IR reform. John Howard would never have tolerated such loose talk. He would know how soft these figures are.

    Let the trolls come on and try and sell the Rudd meme – it’s only purpose is the put doubt into the minds of the faithful. The concerned trolling is so obvious that it is a tad ridiculous. Be prepared for more of the same – probably at a heightened intensity as the CP and MRRT moves through Parliament.

  37. [At 58 per cent, it can afford to be. I suspect “Rudd Labor” does well in a hypothetical poll because it seems like a “middle way” that wavering respondents can follow between left and right options. That wouldn’t be the case at an actual election. Furthermore, the Coalition would kill them in a campaign by playing on their disunity.]
    Yes, but if Gillard had a leadership bone in her body (one day to be dsplayed at the Australian Museum) all this speculation wouldn’t be happening at all. Rudd would be a nobody FM. That people even think like that idly is testament to the emerging truth that Gillard is the worst PM at national leadership since Billy McMahon in my view, and he was a joke. Still, to be fair I suppose, Billy got closer to Gough than anyone expected in 1972.

  38. @imacca/28,

    Round two of protesting votes.

    Remember, when Rudd was leader, Gillard had high polling as well.

    Yet news.com.au and all other crap decides not to notice this at all.

    Anyway, time for bed!

    Night all.

  42. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    In the interests of balance, where are the results with Abbott’s leadership rivals factored in?
    ]

    I’ll bet that wasn’t even asked.

    Not that Bilbo’s constant online job application for a News Ltd Gig will notice that. 🙂

  49. [44

    William Bowe

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    bilbo

    so calling howie

    “the man of steel”

    among other almost sickening salivations by the media was in my imagination?

    Yes, unless George W Bush counts as “the media”.
    ]

    Media Watchers and right minded people

    The above is a direct result of being influenced by Agadoo as a child 🙂

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