Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd

Dreadful though the headline figures are for Labor, the latest monthly Nielsen poll might have offered them cause for relief, with no change to the Coalition’s two-party lead of 58-42. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 27 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 13 per cent. However, the poll offers new torment for Julia Gillard by finding Labor would be ahead 52-48 if it were led by Kevin Rudd. The primary votes, we are told, would be 42 per cent to Labor, 43 per cent to the Coalition and 9 per cent to the Greens. Rudd has 44 per cent support as preferred Labor leader, against 19 per cent for Gillard, 10 per cent for Stephen Smith, 8 per cent for Simon Crean, 5 per cent for Bill Shorten and 4 per cent for Greg Combet. There has also been a sharp drop in Julia Gillard’s already miserable personal ratings: approval down six to 32 per cent, disapproval up five to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on both approval (43 per cent) and disapproval (52 per cent), and now leads as preferred prime minister 48-40, out from 47-44. I should have full tables complete with state breakdowns tomorrow, along with the regular Monday Essential Research results.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:

The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds 54 per cent of voters believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Just 25 per cent say they should be sent to another country to be assessed while 16 per cent believe the boats should be “sent back” and 4 per cent don’t know … When the question was asked a month ago, 28 per cent favoured offshore processing and 53 per cent onshore processing.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research. Another poll showing Labor’s position has not actually worsened since the High Court’s ruling on the Malaysia solution: indeed, the Coalition’s two-party lead has narrowed slightly, from 57-43 to 56-44. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 32 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent and the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Unfortunately for Gillard, this survey features Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which show Gillard beating her previous worst result from July with 28 per cent approval (down seven from August and one from July) and 64 per cent disapproval (up nine from August and two from July). Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent, and leads 40-36 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 in August. A question on processing of asylum seekers is bewilderingly at odds with the Nielsen results (see above), with 36 per cent rather than 54 per cent favouring processing in Australia. “Sent to another country” has 53 per cent – here the difference with Nielsen can partly be accounted for by the absence of a “sent back” option. You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage, but Andrew Wilkie’s pokies reforms have overwhelming support: 67 per cent (up two from April) in favour against 25 per cent opposed. Forty per cent support changes to industrial relations laws when it is put to respondents that doing so will increase productivity, but 42 per cent remain opposed.

Full tables from the Nielsen poll can be viewed here. With results for September, we can now construct Newspoll-style state-level results for the third quarter with reasonable sample sizes by combining the last three monthly polls. For the Nielsen figures, samples and margins of error are about 1300 and 2.7 per cent for New South Wales; 1000 and 3.1 per cent for Victoria; 750 and 3.6 per cent for Queensland; 390 and 5.0 per cent for Western Australia; 330 and 5.4 per cent for South Australia.

  Apr-Jun Jul-Sep
  Newspoll Nielsen Nielsen Swing
Total 46 43 41 9.1
NSW 45 41 41 7.5
Vic 52 47 48 7.0
Qld 42 40 35 9.9
WA 42 44 39 4.6
SA 50 47 40 13.2

Some more preselection snippets to add to the ones from Friday, with Tasmania being a bit of a theme:

• Brigadier Andrew Nikolic won Liberal preselection for Bass without opposition in July. Nikolic had most recently run the Defence Department’s international policy division, after previous service in the army including postings in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was rated a favourite for the preselection ahead of the 2010 election, but withdrew citing work and family reasons.

• The Launceston Examiner reported in late July that Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat in Braddon at the state election, had been sounded out as a candidate for the federal seat of Braddon by Senator Eric Abetz and state party president Richard Chugg. However, Whiteley was quoted saying he would prefer a return to state politics. Whiteley is now chief executive of council-owned Burnie Sports and Events.

• The Liberals have again endorsed wool marketer Eric Hutchinson to run against Dick Adams, Labor’s member of 18 years in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons. There was earlier talk that former Senator Guy Barnett might be interested in running for the seat.

• The retirement announcement of Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons excited some speculation that recently ousted Victorian Premier John Brumby, who held the seat from 1983 until his defeat in 1990, might seize the opportunity for a federal comeback. However, the Ballarat Courier reports that Brumby has ruled himself out. The report also said former Bendigo Health and Ambulance Victoria chairwoman and lawyer Marika McMahon had long been touted as Gibbons’ possible successor.

• Rick Wilson, Katanning farmer, divisional branch president and Pastoralists and Graziers committee chairman, will be the Liberal candidate in the WA seat of O’Connor, where the Nationals’ Tony Crook unseated Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Wilson won an April preselection over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie consultant Ross Wood.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10,653 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd”

Comments Page 213 of 214
1 212 213 214
  1. “Why does an omnipotent omniscient God need a lobbyist to represent them in Canberra?”

    Platinum question from the QandA floor!!!!

  2. Puff in bed and fired up the ipad to tell u how wonderful u are. That post last was magic
    Every one adored it, u said it so well. U certainly are magic. Puff we love. Ya

  3. [cud chewer
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    Is that tiny little bollocks, Frank?]

    oh dear dangling grapes and the russian tourist, haven’t seen any evidence of said fruit belonging to the tourist here, but then dont wish to be too cruel, may be the sun has shrivelled.

  4. TLBD
    Sometimes I can’t sleep and I just want to find dog-stealers and a convenient crocodile farm. I would issue a challenge, “See that pile of big eggs over there? Let’s see you steal a couple.”

    I am anything but uncreative.

  5. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 26 (-1) L/NP 48 (-2) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol #qanda
    1 minute ago
    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 42 (+1) L/NP 58 (-1) #auspol #qanda

  6. Those who care are expected to watch this exhibition of how-good-am-I at an hour when they would like intelligent converse?

  7. #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 42 (+1) L/NP 58 (-1) #auspol #qanda
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 26 (-1) L/NP 48 (-2) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol #qanda

  8. Mod Lib
    [Smoke and mirrors from my perspective. UNHCR aint a big fan of Malaysian rendition. They want countries to meet their international duties to look after those seeking asylum.]
    Yes, that’s why they said the High Court decision was on all fours with their view as to the required safeguards. UNHCR has not at any time approved, signed off on, or been party to the deal, especially the rendition of the 800 part.

  9. Carey…it reminds me of…

    “…we need money to build an interstallar cruiser. Now, this space ship will be able to travel through a wormhole and deliver the message and guh-glory of Jesus Christ to those godless aliens. S-send your money now. Amen.”


  10. GS at 10582. Whatever the merits of your forcasting in other parts of Australia, your idea of Zed Seselja coming within a bulls roar of Government in the ACT is laughable. He and his party only work hard on one topic, internal warfare. For all policy formulation they are so pathetic as to make Abbott seem a policy wonk in comparison. About the only policy the average citizen could identify as coming from them would be the traditional law and order rubbish except as applied to traffic matters. They seem to be against enforcement of speeding laws. Oh, and getting rid of public art!
    Politics in the ACT was so easy for Stanhope he gave it away when he realised that he was never going to face a serious opponent in his lifetime.

  11. [my say
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
    glen you are delousional]

    Have you had the shampoo and comb treatment Glen?

  12. [10628


    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 10:07 pm | Permalink


    LNP primary going down too.


    And the 1% loss went to the Greens – where did the 2% from the libs go to ? 🙂

  13. gosh this is becoming a trend even if it goes down 1 point every fortnight and ours up two perfortnight.
    night all puff weave your magic i think that sparrow only came here becauce you are here just scroll on by ( now finnd can find the music for walk on by

  14. Ah the quote of the day for me…

    Andy_Downunda Andrew Watson
    #QandA I believe Sophie Mirabella is a woman, though I’ve never seen her naked. I believe in God although I’ve never seen him.

  15. [Australia needs Kristina Keneally and Anna Bligh in Federal Parliament. They are fine, principled, intelligent women.]

    Actually, Kenneally has started to be very impressive in the last few months since losing office. She’s a very bright, thoughtful woman. Sad she never really showed that while Premier (was she allowed to?) but she’s definitely not the empty-suited, party-hack that she seemed a while ago.

    Plus, as superficial as it may seem, she looks really beautiful with longer hair. 🙂

  16. Puffy,

    I used to go to sleep, anytime, anywhere pronto. Now, I can’t clear my mind. I know the “secret” but just can’t disengage.

    One good thing: PB in WA and some, like you, are commenting.

  17. [do you know what glen i would be very careful with your hubris lots of karma coming for u]

    My Say

    I have never called the election for Abbott.
    Anybody can win in 2013.
    Please stop misrepresenting me My Say you have a habit of doing so 😮

  18. [And the 1% loss went to the Greens – where did the 2% from the libs go to ?]

    Ok, ok…wait a second, don’t tell me…… “others”?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 213 of 214
1 212 213 214