Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd

Dreadful though the headline figures are for Labor, the latest monthly Nielsen poll might have offered them cause for relief, with no change to the Coalition’s two-party lead of 58-42. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 27 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 13 per cent. However, the poll offers new torment for Julia Gillard by finding Labor would be ahead 52-48 if it were led by Kevin Rudd. The primary votes, we are told, would be 42 per cent to Labor, 43 per cent to the Coalition and 9 per cent to the Greens. Rudd has 44 per cent support as preferred Labor leader, against 19 per cent for Gillard, 10 per cent for Stephen Smith, 8 per cent for Simon Crean, 5 per cent for Bill Shorten and 4 per cent for Greg Combet. There has also been a sharp drop in Julia Gillard’s already miserable personal ratings: approval down six to 32 per cent, disapproval up five to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on both approval (43 per cent) and disapproval (52 per cent), and now leads as preferred prime minister 48-40, out from 47-44. I should have full tables complete with state breakdowns tomorrow, along with the regular Monday Essential Research results.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:

The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds 54 per cent of voters believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Just 25 per cent say they should be sent to another country to be assessed while 16 per cent believe the boats should be “sent back” and 4 per cent don’t know … When the question was asked a month ago, 28 per cent favoured offshore processing and 53 per cent onshore processing.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research. Another poll showing Labor’s position has not actually worsened since the High Court’s ruling on the Malaysia solution: indeed, the Coalition’s two-party lead has narrowed slightly, from 57-43 to 56-44. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 32 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent and the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Unfortunately for Gillard, this survey features Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which show Gillard beating her previous worst result from July with 28 per cent approval (down seven from August and one from July) and 64 per cent disapproval (up nine from August and two from July). Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent, and leads 40-36 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 in August. A question on processing of asylum seekers is bewilderingly at odds with the Nielsen results (see above), with 36 per cent rather than 54 per cent favouring processing in Australia. “Sent to another country” has 53 per cent – here the difference with Nielsen can partly be accounted for by the absence of a “sent back” option. You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage, but Andrew Wilkie’s pokies reforms have overwhelming support: 67 per cent (up two from April) in favour against 25 per cent opposed. Forty per cent support changes to industrial relations laws when it is put to respondents that doing so will increase productivity, but 42 per cent remain opposed.

Full tables from the Nielsen poll can be viewed here. With results for September, we can now construct Newspoll-style state-level results for the third quarter with reasonable sample sizes by combining the last three monthly polls. For the Nielsen figures, samples and margins of error are about 1300 and 2.7 per cent for New South Wales; 1000 and 3.1 per cent for Victoria; 750 and 3.6 per cent for Queensland; 390 and 5.0 per cent for Western Australia; 330 and 5.4 per cent for South Australia.

  Apr-Jun Jul-Sep
  Newspoll Nielsen Nielsen Swing
Total 46 43 41 9.1
NSW 45 41 41 7.5
Vic 52 47 48 7.0
Qld 42 40 35 9.9
WA 42 44 39 4.6
SA 50 47 40 13.2

Some more preselection snippets to add to the ones from Friday, with Tasmania being a bit of a theme:

• Brigadier Andrew Nikolic won Liberal preselection for Bass without opposition in July. Nikolic had most recently run the Defence Department’s international policy division, after previous service in the army including postings in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was rated a favourite for the preselection ahead of the 2010 election, but withdrew citing work and family reasons.

• The Launceston Examiner reported in late July that Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat in Braddon at the state election, had been sounded out as a candidate for the federal seat of Braddon by Senator Eric Abetz and state party president Richard Chugg. However, Whiteley was quoted saying he would prefer a return to state politics. Whiteley is now chief executive of council-owned Burnie Sports and Events.

• The Liberals have again endorsed wool marketer Eric Hutchinson to run against Dick Adams, Labor’s member of 18 years in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons. There was earlier talk that former Senator Guy Barnett might be interested in running for the seat.

• The retirement announcement of Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons excited some speculation that recently ousted Victorian Premier John Brumby, who held the seat from 1983 until his defeat in 1990, might seize the opportunity for a federal comeback. However, the Ballarat Courier reports that Brumby has ruled himself out. The report also said former Bendigo Health and Ambulance Victoria chairwoman and lawyer Marika McMahon had long been touted as Gibbons’ possible successor.

• Rick Wilson, Katanning farmer, divisional branch president and Pastoralists and Graziers committee chairman, will be the Liberal candidate in the WA seat of O’Connor, where the Nationals’ Tony Crook unseated Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Wilson won an April preselection over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie consultant Ross Wood.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10,653 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition; 52-48 to Labor under Rudd”

Comments Page 212 of 214
1 211 212 213 214
  1. It slib,

    Try “proven” in Scottish law. Yeah, I can read the Bible too and quote it to my vile purpose.

    You’ll be the one with the tooth pick in any joust?

  2. [It slib,

    Try “proven” in Scottish law. Yeah, I can read the Bible too and quote it to my vile purpose.]
    Just using a dictionary would suffice.

    I take it you have chosen a toothpick splinter for your jousting competition.

  3. Looks like the brains trust is Right-Wing Projecting again …

    [BiancaSteman Bianca
    OH MY! now I hear Abbott accusing Gillard of relentless negativity ROFL!]

  4. [george
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    I’m not spinning. Your fearless leader Gillard is the one spinning that Labor is tougher then the Libs and is trying to prove it. How else would the Libs be able to snuggle in on the side of being the humanitarians.

    Libs are gutter dogs rummel – don’t fight it, you guys invented the book on playing dirty with people’s lives. ]

    george ..Abbott v Hanson One Nation, Abbott under orders from the rodent to destroy her by whatever means required…and Abbott did in one of the great gutter low political maneuvers and he hasn’t changed since, the lad of the catholic upbringing, with Pell as his confessor..hearing and forgiving him every week…I rest my case.

  5. [I don’t accept that thesis, but if one did, then you could equally say]
    What the hell are you talking about? It is in black and white, the Border Protection Bill 2001:
    [This Act has effect in spite of any other law.]
    There you have it. The first border protection law, which Labor and the Greens blocked, would’ve exempted SAS officers from the criminal code.

    Spread lies somewhere else.

  6. [I do not do “look over there”]
    Really? What was the Grandma alert then?
    [Have a bible or koran handy?]
    No, I prefer non fiction to fiction Ducky.

  7. Australia needs a 5 party system. A socially democratic/centre-left party, a conservative/centre-right party, a liberal/economically centrist party, a far left party and a far right party (the latter two, of course are within reason, not Bolshies or Nazis.)

  8. ModLib

    the UNHCR’s statement on the agreement between Malaysia and Australia makes it clear that they could see some positive benefits from it for refugees.

    The interview with Richard Towle after the High Court ruling makes it very clear they couldn’t see the same benefits from Nauru or Manus Island, and found both those options unacceptable.

  9. [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 9:07 pm | Permalink
    You voted for the guy who was so desperate to make asylum seekers a political issue that he didn’t even think asylum seekers deserved the protection of the crimes code.

    I don’t accept that thesis, but if one did, then you could equally say:

    “You voted for the gal who was so desperate to negate the asylum seekers political issue that she didn’t even think asylum seekers deserved the protection of the Australian High Court”]

    Shows, I am not questioning you about the law, I am questioning your subsequent accusation that this means that I voted for the guy who… by pointing out that you could equally say the same thing about you supporting the party which is trying to pass a bill to remove any High Court protections the asylum seekers currently have.

    Same same (thats the thesis I was referring to)

  10. My Say,
    My 9228. (Note: Late-of-night language warning)

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    Why don’t you thankless Liberal astroturfing dickless cowards just stfu with the Gillard-baiting hatred? The only thing you have to offer is that lowlife knat’s arskehole Abbott, who isn’t fit to be a trustee in a prison full of thieves, swindlers, liars and sociopathic thugs, let alone a leader of a political party and your choice of Prime Minister.

    You have the elephant hide to come on PB whinging your butts off because the PM does what many leaders do, get some advice on media appearances, and slagging Julia Gillard because she goes near some kids. Never mind that your candidate appears damn near every day with anything from kids to dead fish and pig’s carcasses on the salary we pay him just to get a five second news grab, when he should be at work developing those rarest of items, LNP policy.

    When you can find a leader even good enough to wipe Julia Gillard’s shoes, instead of that pathetic excuse for a human being you’ve dredged up from the bottom of your barrel of rancid Howard left-overs, then maybe you can legitimately criticise Prime Minister Julia Gillard for one of those nitpicky points for which you usually search.

  11. [Carey Moore
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 9:32 pm | Permalink
    Australia needs a 5 party system. A socially democratic/centre-left party, a conservative/centre-right party, a liberal/economically centrist party, a far left party and a far right party (the latter two, of course are within reason, not Bolshies or Nazis.)]

    Socially democratic/centre left party: ALP
    Conservative/centre right party: Liberal
    Liberal/economically centrist party: Democrats & many independants
    Far left party: Greens
    Far right party: One Nation

    What more do you want?

  12. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    the UNHCR’s statement on the agreement between Malaysia and Australia makes it clear that they could see some positive benefits from it for refugees.]

    Smoke and mirrors from my perspective. UNHCR aint a big fan of Malaysian rendition. They want countries to meet their international duties to look after those seeking asylum.

  13. The PB Labortariat’s worst nightmare….

    May 2012 – Queensland Labor routed in State Election. Labor reduced to a rump of 26 seats. Campbell Newman wins Ashgrove 57/43 2PP. Newman links opposition to Carbon Tax and interference from Canberra as well the reason for the landslide.

    June 2012 – Andrew Wilkie withdraws support for Gillard Govt. Refuses Abbott’s offer of support for a no-confidence motion. Gillard Govt doesnt fall. Abbott declares Gillard administration a fraud and a blight on Australian democracy.

    August 2012 – NT CLP wins landslide election. Terry Mills elated with the result. CLP take 6 seats off Labor reducing them to 6 and the CLP moves up to 17 seats.

    October 2012 – Zed Seselja and ACT Liberals win minority govt in Canberra with support of the Greens. Seselja takes Liberals to 8 seats and governs with support of Greens. Tony Abbott refuses to endorse ACT Liberals decision to sign a pact with the Greens.

    November 2012 – Julia Gillard hits 80% disapproval rating. Labor’s primary vote static in last Newspoll at 26%. LNP leads Labor 2PP 58-42.

    December 2012 – Kevin Rudd challenges for the Labor leadership with Stephen Smith as running mate. Rudd falls 5 votes short of taking the leadership. Julia Gillard refuses to resign pointing out her NBN policy and that the Carbon Price has not disadvantaged as many people as once believed.

    December 2012 – Kevin Rudd resigns as Foreign Minister and will not contest the next election.

    January 2013 -Terry Redman ousts Brendan Grylls as WA Nationals leader and signs Coalition Agreement with Liberal Party. Vince Catania made deputy WA Nats leader. Terry Redman becomes Deputy Premier.

    April 2013 – Colin Barnett and LNP wins WA Election. LNP up to 37 seats. Barnett aims to increase State Royalties on Mining following the landslide win. Eric Ripper quits Labor leadership on election night blaming his loss of Federal Labor. Barnett’s victory ensures every State and Territory Govt is held by the LNP except Tasmania.

    May 2013 – Barnaby Joyce signals he has Bruce Scott’s approval to run in Maranoa at the next election and wins pre-selection contest.

    June 2013 – Tony Windsor announces he will retire at the next election.

    July 2013 – Warren Truss indicates he will step down from the Nationals leadership. Barnaby Joyce becomes Nationals leader.

    September 2013 – Newspoll has Labor gaining ground and at 53/47 behind the LNP. It’s primary vote now up to over 31%.

    October 2013 – Galaxy now has Labor behind just 52/48…Ms Gillard proclaims she can still win the next election.

    November 30th 2013 -Final Election Result: 2PP LNP 54 – ALP 46….Labor loses 17 seats and falls to 55 in the HoR…LNP up to 87 seats. LNP 1 vote shy of a Senate majority and will deal with Senator X and the DLP Senator from Victoria to pass legislation. Tony Abbott declares “Carbon Tax dead buried and cremated” and declares “the people of Australia have seen the end of the most dysfunctional and toxic government in living history” as he stands on stage with Margie and the girls.

    December 1 2013 – Julia Gillard resigns as Labor leader. Bill Shorten takes over as PM with Mark Arbib made leader of the Opposition in the Senate.

    February 2013 – Don Randall is made Speaker of the House of Representatives. Cory Bernardi becomes President of the Senate. Julia marries Tim Mathieson in a private ceremony in Melbourne. Julia Mathieson declares she will resign her seat in Parliament next month.

    Tony Abbott sworn in as Prime Minister and Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister.

    April 2013 – Prime Minister Abbott goes to Washington to meet President Perry with Defence Minister Mal Brough and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop. He later visits Stephen Harper in Ottawa and David Cameron in London before returning to Australia.

    May 2013 – Eric Abetz introduces amendments to the Fair Work Australia Act….

    It could all come true… 😮

  14. [Gary Sparrow

    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    The PB Labortariat’s worst nightmare….

    sounds just like your other so called Boy’s own adventures.

    BOLLOCKS !!!! 🙂

    With the emphasis on Boy’s 🙂

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 212 of 214
1 211 212 213 214