Dreadful though the headline figures are for Labor, the latest monthly Nielsen poll might have offered them cause for relief, with no change to the Coalition’s two-party lead of 58-42. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 27 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 13 per cent. However, the poll offers new torment for Julia Gillard by finding Labor would be ahead 52-48 if it were led by Kevin Rudd. The primary votes, we are told, would be 42 per cent to Labor, 43 per cent to the Coalition and 9 per cent to the Greens. Rudd has 44 per cent support as preferred Labor leader, against 19 per cent for Gillard, 10 per cent for Stephen Smith, 8 per cent for Simon Crean, 5 per cent for Bill Shorten and 4 per cent for Greg Combet. There has also been a sharp drop in Julia Gillard’s already miserable personal ratings: approval down six to 32 per cent, disapproval up five to 62 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on both approval (43 per cent) and disapproval (52 per cent), and now leads as preferred prime minister 48-40, out from 47-44. I should have full tables complete with state breakdowns tomorrow, along with the regular Monday Essential Research results.
UPDATE: Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:
The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds 54 per cent of voters believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Just 25 per cent say they should be sent to another country to be assessed while 16 per cent believe the boats should be “sent back” and 4 per cent don’t know … When the question was asked a month ago, 28 per cent favoured offshore processing and 53 per cent onshore processing.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research. Another poll showing Labor’s position has not actually worsened since the High Court’s ruling on the Malaysia solution: indeed, the Coalition’s two-party lead has narrowed slightly, from 57-43 to 56-44. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 32 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 49 per cent and the Greens down a point to 10 per cent. Unfortunately for Gillard, this survey features Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which show Gillard beating her previous worst result from July with 28 per cent approval (down seven from August and one from July) and 64 per cent disapproval (up nine from August and two from July). Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent, and leads 40-36 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 in August. A question on processing of asylum seekers is bewilderingly at odds with the Nielsen results (see above), with 36 per cent rather than 54 per cent favouring processing in Australia. “Sent to another country” has 53 per cent – here the difference with Nielsen can partly be accounted for by the absence of a “sent back” option. You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage, but Andrew Wilkie’s pokies reforms have overwhelming support: 67 per cent (up two from April) in favour against 25 per cent opposed. Forty per cent support changes to industrial relations laws when it is put to respondents that doing so will increase productivity, but 42 per cent remain opposed.
Full tables from the Nielsen poll can be viewed here. With results for September, we can now construct Newspoll-style state-level results for the third quarter with reasonable sample sizes by combining the last three monthly polls. For the Nielsen figures, samples and margins of error are about 1300 and 2.7 per cent for New South Wales; 1000 and 3.1 per cent for Victoria; 750 and 3.6 per cent for Queensland; 390 and 5.0 per cent for Western Australia; 330 and 5.4 per cent for South Australia.
| Apr-Jun | Jul-Sep | |||
| Newspoll | Nielsen | Nielsen | Swing | |
| Total | 46 | 43 | 41 | 9.1 |
| NSW | 45 | 41 | 41 | 7.5 |
| Vic | 52 | 47 | 48 | 7.0 |
| Qld | 42 | 40 | 35 | 9.9 |
| WA | 42 | 44 | 39 | 4.6 |
| SA | 50 | 47 | 40 | 13.2 |
Some more preselection snippets to add to the ones from Friday, with Tasmania being a bit of a theme:
• Brigadier Andrew Nikolic won Liberal preselection for Bass without opposition in July. Nikolic had most recently run the Defence Department’s international policy division, after previous service in the army including postings in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was rated a favourite for the preselection ahead of the 2010 election, but withdrew citing work and family reasons.
• The Launceston Examiner reported in late July that Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat in Braddon at the state election, had been sounded out as a candidate for the federal seat of Braddon by Senator Eric Abetz and state party president Richard Chugg. However, Whiteley was quoted saying he would prefer a return to state politics. Whiteley is now chief executive of council-owned Burnie Sports and Events.
• The Liberals have again endorsed wool marketer Eric Hutchinson to run against Dick Adams, Labor’s member of 18 years in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons. There was earlier talk that former Senator Guy Barnett might be interested in running for the seat.
• The retirement announcement of Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons excited some speculation that recently ousted Victorian Premier John Brumby, who held the seat from 1983 until his defeat in 1990, might seize the opportunity for a federal comeback. However, the Ballarat Courier reports that Brumby has ruled himself out. The report also said former Bendigo Health and Ambulance Victoria chairwoman and lawyer Marika McMahon had long been touted as Gibbons’ possible successor.
• Rick Wilson, Katanning farmer, divisional branch president and Pastoralists and Graziers committee chairman, will be the Liberal candidate in the WA seat of O’Connor, where the Nationals’ Tony Crook unseated Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Wilson won an April preselection over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie consultant Ross Wood.
[Get real, Mod Lib, this is PB, not some crappy Ltd News outlet]
Liberal tough on ayslum seekers: BAD
Labor tough on asylum seekers: OK (no choice because of liberals)
I get it…..I just don’t accept it.
[Was there sound and fury on this blog when Keating blocked the GST to win the unwinnable 1993 federal election?]
I doubt this blog existed back then but two wrongs don’t make a right. Also that was an election, not legislation.
[Was there sound and fury on this blog when Keating blocked the GST to win the unwinnable 1993 federal election?]
Let’s see, we’re comparing blocking a consumption tax and trying to find a way to remove the partisan disgrace that has become the AS volleyball game.
Tell us Mod, after Tampa you voted for Howard? After Siev X you voted for Howard? After children overboard you voted for Howard?
My my, what great moral standards you have.
[Shadow Comms Minister Malcolm Turnbull says newspapers and radio weigh more heavily in opinion than news these days.]
Wasn’t Turnbull telling us last week that the media enquiry is useless because LimitedNoos is doing such a good job. Is Malcolm having 2nd thoughts this week?
Orf to watch 4C.
From outta nowhere the Adelaide Crows have appointed Brenton Sanderson as coach.
He and my oldest son grew up and played primary school football together.
IMO, the Labor govt under Rudd won office partly because people hated Howard’s AS policy and administration of them. After the conditions were “softened”, and for various reasons more boats started to arrive, Abbott and Morrison and the RW bashed Labor continuously until the voters also took up the cry against boats.
Labor are trying a bit of lateral thinking by suggesting a regional solution.
Abbott is a wrecker.
poroti,
Fencing aficionado?
Peeps keep talking about QT as whatever. Fencing is the mot juste. They line you up and thrust. You parry and counter-thrust. Tony Abbott would be down with zero hits credit.
Ducks
[She gets her thrills on The Hill]
Just Y’all check out Thrills on the Hill. Yeee Haw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eggP7CxFqkM
Abbott doesn’t need to block the legislation to win the AS debate. If he let it pass, he’d probably still get a bit of mileage out of just playing the “Good for the govt but you know who are the party who you can actually trust to really protect the borders? (And remember, they’re only doing this because we put pressure on them)” line…
I mean, it suits me if the legislation gets blocked. I think offshore processing is an atrocious policy. I just resent the idea that he’s only holding out on it until they’re in power. It’s dirty, cowardly politics.
[Pegasus
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
Re: Abbo’s link:
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/caning-epidemic-in-malaysia-prisons-20101206-18m95.html
Above article refers to an Amnesty International report – Malaysia: A blow to humanity: Torture by judicial caning in Malaysia- a link I provided on PB many months ago]
Thanks Pegasus. that link worked.
The thing is, though, while I abhor caning (obviously) the fact is
[Amnesty estimated that some 10,000 people are caned each year, many of them illegal immigrants.]
The people who will be returned to Malaysia under a regional solution will not be “illegal immigrants” and therefore not subject to caning, unless of course they commit a crime that is accorded that punishment.
That was the crux of Julie Bishop’s “guarantee” shite today. Pity the PM just didn’t say they wouldn’t be caned unless they had committed a crime under Malaysian law that attracted such punishment.
If she had, though, the press would have said JG agreed with caning.
BK
I am watching on the Couch, and they just announed the Sanderson appointment.
[Was there sound and fury on this blog when Keating blocked the GST to win the unwinnable 1993 federal election?]
Good point Mod Lib. Even though I’m a Labor supporter I have always thought that was one of the most breathtaking pieces of hypocrisy I have ever seen.
It’s a strange game politics.
Well think about it – you might.
Had Labor not moved to the right on the issue, they would have lost Greenway and Lindsay, and Abbott would have been PM today.
The Greens would be happy. A PM that is the bestest ever friend the environment ever had.
How appropriate, The Greens sided with Liberal on the CPRS and now the Liberals side with the Greens on AS.
One loonier than the other!
Frank was right, the LNP/Green Coalition.
You both deserve each other!
poroti,
I was thinking more http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dl5hknXqXps
I do Norm really well.
[I think it’s timely at this point to remind people of the coalition’s strident opposition to the cigarette plain packaging bills, and their fierce campaign (in concert with the DT) against the govt’s cuts to middle class welfare in the budget. On both accounts, the coalition attacks simply ended with nary a wimper. ]
Ditto the flood levy, which was surely going to be the downfall of Gillard until it well, wasn’t.
4C worth watching?
This little black duck
[poroti,
Fencing aficionado?]
I was. Loved it.But the siren call of thuggerby stuffed that. Anyways one of the things I do know for using the foil was that graceful deflections were most important. Tones is going the saber when the reality is that politics is more the foil. Not that there is anything wrong with the sabre I might addd !!
Moodie & Dare not,
Leave the past to itself or not, as you please.
[The Labor government has been left with no choice but to move to the right on this issue to avoid losing an election.]
This comment raps up Labor and its supporters in a nut shell.
Labor supporters screamed blue murder during the pacific solution, took the high ground and claimed JWH was a criminal. Now every thing is fine, Gillard and team labor are not hypocrites and every thing they do is because the Lib made then do it.
Oh how the self righteous have fallen.
jv @10434,
Thanks for your response.
Interesting to see how it all plays out.
[4C worth watching?]
Starting straight off with the revolting people – only if you can stomach it duckie
[which was surely going to be the downfall of Gillard until it well, wasn’t.]
27% primary vote
-45% approval/disapproval standings.
LBD 10450 “I found my thrill on blueberry hill” to paraphrase Richie from Happy Days
I am glad though Gai is getting a thrill somewhere!!!!
poroti,
I have no personal experience of the sport but I love watching it. It rally is a matter of will. Not through the eyes but through posture and movement.
“The Australian’s” idea of impartiality
_________________________
On the weekend the Oz carried a long statement by His Holines the Israeli Ambassador,about why the Palestinians can never have a state of their own or be in the UN..permenant occupation is to be their fate…
Surprise,Surprise…there has been no right of reply offered to any Palestinian representative in Australia…the rest is silence from Murdoch…a passionate support of Israel. (The christening of one his children by Wendi Deng ,…was actually performed in Israeli with Parson and war-criminal Tony Blair as God-father…what a treat !
[ I just resent the idea that he’s only holding out on it until they’re in power. It’s dirty, cowardly politics.]
I would be surprised if Abbott wins the Senate.
If this is blocked now, it could well and truly stop offshore processing for good.
We are in the high stakes part of the game, and I am sorry if it offends all of you, as it seems to be doing, but I am very very excited about potentially being in the death throws of this disgraceful policy (if Gillard goes down with it, water off a ducks back to me, I think she is hopeless remember!)
[Labor supporters screamed blue murder during the pacific solution, took the high ground and claimed JWH was a criminal. Now every thing is fine, Gillard and team labor are not hypocrites and every thing they do is because the Lib made then do it.
Oh how the self righteous have fallen.]
Rummel, nothing compares to Siev X, Tampa and Children Overboard to anything that is happening now. Nothing.
You think you own the high moral ground? You are purposely taking the stance to deflect from the moral bankruptcy that has been the Liberal Party, to which now has been thrown further into a twisted mess of lies and hypocrisies under Abbott and Morrison.
Your mob is nothing short of pathetic.
[but I am very very excited about potentially being in the death throws of this disgraceful policy]
And yet you voted for a party that held an even worse policy. We can see through the high horsery Mod, it don’t work.
Here we go, that’s all they have got – Julia lied before the election!
[If he let it pass, he’d probably still get a bit of mileage out of just playing the “Good for the govt but you know who are the party who you can actually trust to really protect the borders?]
Passing the amendments enables the coalition to continue arguing for Nauru. The policy situation will effectively be what it is now: Malaysia vs Nauru.
However, voting down the govt’s amendments means Nauru is out as well, and the coalition are left with no credible, alternative policy.
mari,
Gai is in the electorate of Canberra, the “other” ACT one (Andrew Leigh is my rep). In the House, Gai gets many opportunities (the Whip and Albo decide who gets up) and speaks well. She always look as if she enjoys what she is doing, and her couture is quite fetching.
rishane:
Did the coalition vote for the flood levy? I didn’t think they did, just that they weren’t able to come up with sufficient savings as an alternative.
wow blocked by p vanonsolen on twitter..the poor sweet cupcake, such a sensitive lad, loves to be in the pubic eye but don’t dare criticise the fragile darling…the poor thing goes all hurt and bothered..as if I would be the first to call his number?
Moody Blue Lib,
“death throes?” What do you know? Tell us on PB. We are breathless in expectation.
[If this is blocked now, it could well and truly stop offshore processing for good.]
It won’t and you know it. The next time there is a flood of boat arrivals, the incumbent govt will simply legislate to enable offshore processing.
The only humane alternative to boat arrivals is a regional solution with UNHCR oversight. If the Malaysia deal is voted out, we will never get there.
george
regardless of your spin, Labor and every Government supporter is just as bad as Howard and the libs. Welcome to the club.
david,
Carve another notch on your .303.
Combet – exactly, Australia must pull its weight!
[And yet you voted for a party that held an even worse policy. We can see through the high horsery Mod, it don’t work.]
Just remind me why I should have changed my vote to the ALP on the asylum seeker issue George?
Bomber bent over backwards to say “Me too” in the Tampa aftermath. Gillard is proud of going further than the Liberal party. Not to mention it was the ALP who introduced mandatory detention.
BK, what have you done to Sophie’s lips?
[Labor supporters screamed blue murder during the pacific solution, took the high ground and claimed JWH was a criminal. Now every thing is fine, Gillard and team labor are not hypocrites and every thing they do is because the Lib made then do it.]
I never called Howard a criminal.
I just immediately realised that the Pacific non-Solution would ultimately be a massive waste of money.
I was proven correct.
Oh and George, have we forgotten when Kev tried to pimp out the refugees on the Oceanic Viking to Indonesia?. Another fine day for the Labor party.
[regardless of your spin, Labor and every Government supporter is just as bad as Howard and the libs. Welcome to the club.]
rummel regardless of your spin, you are ashamed of your side to the point that you wish to paint us in the same light. We don’t buy it for a second.
Again rummel, you were ok with Tampa? Siev X? What about children overboard. My what a disgrace your side has proven to be. Any regrets for the thousands who DIED under you watch? None? I don’t expect any, your mob is heartless at the core.
Disgrace.
Bil Dom.
You are in reverse. Try a forward gear, if you have one.
[Oh and George, have we forgotten when Kev tried to pimp out the refugees on the Oceanic Viking to Indonesia?. Another fine day for the Labor party.]
Tampa, Siev X, Children Overboard. Death and misery as peddled by the Libs.
[david
Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 8:46 pm | Permalink
wow blocked by p vanonsolen on twitter..the poor sweet cupcake, such a sensitive lad, loves to be in the pubic eye but don’t dare criticise the fragile darling…the poor thing goes all hurt and bothered..as if I would be the first to call his number?
]
See your DM for my reply .
[Just remind me why I should have changed my vote to the ALP on the asylum seeker issue George?]
The high horse you’re on now – if you didn’t have a problem them don’t preach here now. Simple?
Mod Lib
just wow, really.
[Was there sound and fury on this blog when Keating blocked the GST to win the unwinnable 1993 federal election?]
You’re right, there wasn’t.
William, I hope you’re taking this to heart – why didn’t you start this blog up when you were in your early teens?
[He waxed lyrical about it for a decade before that,]
No, he didn’t. He waxed lyrical about it about A decade before that, and then he went right off it.
If he had still be in favour of a GST, he could well and truly have got one up and running long before Hewson came on the scene.
[ in fact he and Hawke said that if they couldn’t get the “consumption tax” through they didnt deserve to be in government (or words to that effect, I am going by memory). ]
Worse than that, I think you’re making stuff up.
My memory is that Hawke was never even the least bit interested in a GST – which is why it never became, even for a micro second, Labor party policy.
If Hawke had supported it, there’s no reason on God’s earth that it wouldn’t have got up.
[Then he dumps on it ]
…because he decided it was bad policy, when he looked into it in more detail…
[and mounts a massive scare campaign against a great big new tax.]
…which he was able to do because by then (nearly ten years later) he had gone off the idea of a GST to the extent that he never even looked like introducing one when he had plenty of opportunity to do so.
It’s the policies you once supported that you can mount the most stinging attacks against, because you understand both their attractions and their flaws so much more.
[I am guessing you all thought that was brilliant at the time.]
Yes, because I find people who change their minds after considering all the evidence incredibly sexy (intellectually speaking).
[ Now you are apoplectic about Abbott for not bending over backwards to give Gillard whatever she wants….Hmmm]
No, we’re apoplectic because Labor is genuinely trying to find a policy which will save refugees’ lives, and improve their living conditions whilst they’re waiting for rendition, and Abbott’s getting the credit for being a great humanitarian when he has no interest in refugees as people at all.
Sorry, ‘settlement’ is closer to my meaning than ‘rendition’ (couldn’t think of the word I wanted until I pressed post!)
[Oh and George, have we forgotten when Kev tried to pimp out the refugees on the Oceanic Viking to Indonesia?. Another fine day for the Labor party.]
Rudd, as LOTO also promised to turn boats around at sea.
It was very disappointing from my perspective.