Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published results from its last two weekends of face-to-face surveying, with one period before the High Court ruling on the Malaysia solution and the other after. The poll actually shows a slight improvement for Labor on the poll covering the two weeks previous: their primary vote is steady on 32.5 per cent, but the Coalition is down three to 46.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. On the respondent-allocated preferences two-party preferred measure, this translates into a shift from 58.5-41.5 to 58-42; allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election, the shift is from 55.5-44.5 to 54.5-45.5. This is the biggest disparity yet recorded by Morgan between the two preference allocation methods, with Labor receiving just 45 per cent of minor party and independent preferences compared with 65.8 per cent at the election.

Also:

• I have been informed that an unpublished survey of 400 respondents in Western Australia, conducted six weeks ago by Patterson Market Research (which conducts, among other things, Westpoll for The West Australian), had federal voting intention at 57 per cent for the Coalition, 27 per cent for Labor and 9 per cent for the Greens, suggesting a two-party result of about 63-37. This points to a swing of about 6.5 per cent: Labor’s margins in the three Western Australian seats they still hold are 3.3 per cent in Brand, 5.7 per cent in Fremantle and 5.9 per cent in Perth. The margin of error on the poll is a bit under 5 per cent.

• Arthur Sinodinos, former chief-of-staff to John Howard, looks set to fill the NSW Liberal Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Helen Coonan after confirming his intention to nominate.

• In the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, Mal Brough’s election as Liberal National Party divisional branch chairman ahead of the preferred candidate of sitting member Peter Slipper is universally being interpreted as a portent of looming preselection defeat of the latter by the former. Slipper had said his position as an LNP member of parliament would become “untenable” if his candidate was defeated, but after the event claimed he had “never threatened to resign”.

• Jessica Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that as well as Brough, Tony Abbott has approached former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly and Parramatta MP Ross Cameron with a view to returning to parliament at the next election. Also on Abbott’s wish list is Tom Switzer, editor of The Spectator Australia and former opinion page editor for The Australian. Kelly at least has been unequivocal in denying any interest in a comeback, while Switzer appears to be holding out for a seat in Sydney after being discussed as a possible contender in Craig Thomson’s central coast seat of Dobell. It has further been reported that Gary Hardgrave and De-Anne Kelly, who lost their Queensland seats of Moreton and Dawson in 2007, have also “come in for attention”.

• Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons has announced he will bow out at the next election. Gibbons won the seat from the Liberals on the retirement of Bruce Reid in 1998 and consolidated thereafter, winning last year by a margin of 9.5 per cent. There was speculation that Senator David Feeney might seek refuge in the seat, having been unable to advance up the batting order from his highly loseable third position on the party ticket. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey described such reports as “erroneous”, and quoted Gibbons saying he “wouldn’t support David Feeney or anyone else administrative people from Melbourne impose on us”. Also mentioned by The Australian was Ben Hubbard, local native and chief-of-staff to the Prime Minister.

• Christian Kerr of The Australian suggests WA Liberal Senator Matthias Cormann has his eyes on preselection for the lower house seats of Pearce and Moore, to be vacated at the election by the retirements of Judi Moylan and Mal Washer. This threatens to be factionally problematic, as Cormann is of the Right whereas Moylan and Washer are noted moderates. Kerr’s report also foreshadows yet another preselection challenge to Tangney MP Dennis Jensen, who has twice required intervention from higher up to save him from preselection defeat at the local branch level.

• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reviews Liberal preselection jockeying for Corangamite, where Sarah Henderson is hoping for another crack after narrowly failing to unseat Labor’s Darren Cheeseman last year. She may face competition in the shape of Rod Nockles, an internet security expert who also sought preselection last time. Robert Hardie, an adviser to Senator Michael Ronaldson, was identified as a potential starter but declined to comment.

• Victorian Liberal Senators Helen Kroger and Scott Ryan are shaping up for a preselection contest for the second position on the party’s ticket at the next election, to be determined early next year. Kroger was elected from number two and Ryan from number three in 2007, but Ryan has since attained a more senior parliamentary position and is thus by party convention entitled to the higher place.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,038 comments on “Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  2. swamprat

    [lurking .. trying to escape ABC endless 11/9 hysteria]

    Well do not even think about Foxtel’s “News and Documentaries” channel it is wall to wall 9/11 .

  4. you are wise lizzie …. it is sad when the media invents, in their own small minds, cosmic events from local mass crimes … and pretends we share their breathless nonsense

  6. swamprat

    I was thinking today that on weekends there is suddenly less “news”, especially on ABC. Possible reason? Fewer reporters on duty?
    Does this mean they make up the news? He he he.

  7. 2769 rummel
    [No wonder Labor is team fail, its the party of elites who blow members money on booze ups and ladies of the night.]

    Les Paterson is an excellent source of such, Rummel.

    Going back to the days when he was a Minister in Gough’s government he put in for some funding to help end discrimination against gay aboriginal boilermakers and blacksmiths. Gough was a bit suspicious and called Les in.

    Gough: Les, what’s this really about?
    Les: Well its aimed at ending……
    Gough: No. No. I mean what is it really about?
    Les: It’s for a piss-up.
    Gough: Les, for being so honest with me, I’m going to allocate double the funding!

  11. [lol, CLIMATE REALITY PROJECT. No one cares any more and thats reality.
    Move along people its just another inconvenient left militant group (aka GetUP) dressed up as a green group. Gore should just crawl back into his massive co2 pumping mansion and just give up lol.]

    WTF are you talking about?

  15. Puff

    I noticed that one question asked whether things were preferred to people. There was no room for me to put “animals” in. 🙁

  16. [zoomster@2880:

    To be fair, I have gone back and looked at Mick’s argument.

    That’s the problem, people like Mick trade on people being fair, but that’s what intelligent people do.

    I have come to the conclusion that we are dealing with an idiot. I-am-trying-to-ignore-his-posts. (i.e through gritted teeth!)

    But it’s tough when all your instincts cry out to put someone right who is obviously wrong.

    I pity his students.]

    Zoomster, take Don’s advice. There is NO PERCENTAGE in taking the Micks of this world on.

    If you win they will first barrage you with other sources.

    If you win again, they will insult you, pointing out how you’re inferior to them (“picking nematodes out of their arse”)

    If you make a mistake, they think they win.

    They also think they win if you don’t respond, but at least you have some peace of mind in not bothering to indulge their narcissm.

    My recent experience is still pretty raw in my mind. It ended up with this guy threatening to come over to my house with a private detective to prove to my wife I’d been having an affair with his wife (which I had not, but jealousy is another of their traits… they’re obsessively possessive).

    When I told Her Indoors about all this she said, “Bring it on!” She wanted the pleasure of throwing him out of the house personally. I actually had to talk her out of it.

    Then he started to threaten violence, started talking about hammers and anvils and people being crushed between the two. It got quite nasty (from his end, I didn’t reply to any of this).

    They HATE anyone questioning their omniscience. Their wives and kids live lives of hell. Narcissists tolerate the ignorant, knowing that in an imperfect world there will be those who are unintelligent and uneducated (us) and those who are the leaders and teachers (them). “They” have to guide “us” through life’s little traps and dangers.

    When the “ignorant” speak up, they decide they have to crush them. At first they try patronizing their doubters, “iron fist in the velvet glove” kind of thing. But if it gets serious, they cajole, insult and finally threaten

    In the end you have to decide whether you want to keep up the argument. I decided otherwise. I don’t know what the bugger could do if he gets really riled.

    He lives in Abbott’s electorate, in a big multi-million dollar pile on a hill overlooking the harbour. His wife (the one I’m supposed to be having an affair with) is miserable, but she can’t escape him, as he has quite a lot of control over her personal money. It’s real soap opera stuff. Quite scary in the end. So I quit.

  17. lizzie

    I have for most of my many years listened only to ABC news but in the past few years I have given up on them. It has left me a bit culture shocked. I do not understand how a public broadcaster with public funding can abandon its professional and ethical news role so completely with little comment.

    I am coming to an horrible cynical belief that the ABC management wants to lose their “loyal” audience so they can be privatised and get the $5million salary that Joyce gets for running down a once publicly owned QANTAS.

  18. [All being run the same week Gillard sends her tax to be passed by the Parliament, coincidence?.]

    once again, WTF are you talking about? Did you see the report about the connection between the climate change lobby group and the PM’s action group on overgrown hedges? It all links back to that left wing group The People’s Choice and proves once and for all that the back stabbing was real and came about because Rudd wasn’t prepared to pay for the prostitute that Thomson was involved with. It all links back to the Visa card and the one eyed waiter at Rockpool Bar & Grill.

  20. [It’s Time

    I wondered whether he teaches in Toowoomba.]
    I suspect Northside Christian College, Brisbane; a ministry of nexus church.

  22. rummel @ 2913

    What? you have not got the left memo yet………… http://climaterealityproject.org/the-event/

    All being run the same week Gillard sends her tax to be passed by the Parliament, coincidence?.

    Of course it is not a coincidence. Are you stupid or something?

    Was the convoy of no consequence un-planned and spontaneous? Of course not. So in the same way, supporters of action on climate change are rallying in Canberra. What a surprise!

    My best wishes are with them.

  23. Rummel

    Your ‘beliefs’ are examples of the greater threat to western values. You share that with the ‘believers’ in ‘revealed’ religions.

    The acceptance that policy, decisions, indeed society should be based on rational thought and learning rather than BELIEF is the fragile treasure that ‘western’ culture, based on earlier Greek philosophy gives to the world.

    It is under attack from fundamentalists of Islam, fundy Christians and Jews but also from the luny right in USA and their lap dogs in Australia.

    Where do You fit in?

  30. Rummel I can suggest some very good egg on face extractors for you to keep on hand when the House and Senate pass the Carbon Pricing Bills, as they will, keep that in mind, they will From then, your refugee from the Jesuit seminary Abbott, who coincidentally offered to sell his arse, odd that connection, will have nowhere to go…unless of course you can suggest what his next lamebrain stupid strategy will be.

    No No No hasn’t worked, slogans haven’t worked, lies certainly haven’t worked, his collegues haven’t worked, ask Brandis, what a fekin fool.
    The no pairs shat all over him, he has a 70 billion dollar hole, promises he will never keep EXCEPT workchoices, he is snookered on Asylum Seekers, all things considered not a bad year for the one person he underestimated so much, the one person he thought would be easy pickings to take over from, who still resides in the building your idol will never get the keys to, the PM’s residence The Lodge.

    Suck those lemons Rummel and drool over the polls, thats all you have left.

  31. david

    I do not think Abbott was a Jesuit. I think he was a diocesan seminarian (that is an ordinary local priest not a religious order). Never heard he was a jesuit.

  32. There is no way I’m the nerdiest person on this site (I scored 83).

    Some of you lot aren’t coughing up. I certainly have never built my own computer.

  33. [poroti
    Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

    From the first WallyBe’s website a very good “Joke of the Week”

    On the shore of the Indian Ocean in southern Sri Lanka, a raggedy fisherman lies dozing with a hat over his face. Beside him, two fishing rods are stuck in the sand. Up comes an American tourist. ”What are you sleeping for?” the American asks. ”You’d be better off catching fish.”

    ”What for?” the fisherman replies.

    ”What do you mean, ‘What for?’ You’d catch some fish, you’d sell them and with the money you’d buy yourself a trawler. The trawler would catch even more fish. You’d sell it and buy yourself an even bigger boat. You’d catch still more fish. You’d sell it. Then you’d build yourself a fish-processing factory and get rich. And then you could lie on the beach and sleep!”

    The fisherman pulls his hat even further down over his face and says, in a singularly condescending tone: ”But that’s what I’m doing now.”]

    I’ve got a similar story (from the Barossa Valley) called “Lazy Hans”

    Hans was at a riverside fishing with a friend, but mostly dozing on the riverbank. Eventually, he looked up to ask his friend, “Karl, would you mind checking my line to see if I have a bite?”

    Karl checked and told Hans he did indeed have a bite. Hans replied, “Would you mind pulling it in for me?”

    That was too much for Karl, who burst out, “Hans, you’re the laziest person I know! If you want someone else to pull in your line, why don’t you get married and have a son to do it for you?”

    Hans pondered that for a while and replied, “That’s a pretty good idea. Do you happen to know any pregnant single women?”

  37. [who coincidentally offered to sell his arse, ]

    Hmmm Gillard did sell her ass off to the greens, nice work.

    [No No No hasn’t worked]

    yes it has and very well, Labor is mud every where out side of the PM office and PB.

    [lies certainly haven’t worked]

    disagree and provide evidence http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApCwoj35d3M&feature=player_detailpage

    [The no pairs shat all over him]

    Agree and called him out on this for being a idiot

    [he has a 70 billion dollar hole]

    where?

    [he is snookered on Asylum Seekers]

    lol ok, being shot down by the high court is a good day for Team Labor

    [Suck those lemons Rummel and drool over the polls, thats all you have left.]

    Its ok David, you have two more years of this successful government to cheer you up before Abbott takes over, enjoy, because i also love watching this NSW Labor Government fail all over again.

  40. [swamprat
    Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    david

    I do not think Abbott was a Jesuit. I think he was a diocesan seminarian (that is an ordinary local priest not a religious order). Never heard he was a jesuit.]

    I really dont know that I should need to explain the Jesuit connection and Abbott. Suffice to say friend, he was studying at a Seminary run by the Jesuits. The rest you will have to go searching, I really don’t have the time to explain…I presume you have led a sheltered existance, with respect and not wishing to put too finer point on it. 🙂

  41. CM

    The drumbeats will just get louder by the msm that Gillard needs to go to make way for Rudd. As night follows day, that is allwe are going to hear

  45. [victoria
    Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    CM

    The drumbeats will just get louder by the msm that Gillard needs to go to make way for Rudd. As night follows day, that is allwe are going to hear]

    victoria thats about all the MSM will have left, as in rummel it will be lemons time

  47. I am bereft of a rationalisation as to why the blog went off into the Moncktonsphere,

    Mick –You clearly have a strong reason for peddling this stuff. It is either personal conviction that the science is wrong, or you are doing it on behalf of others trying to influence the political debate.

    I strongly suspect it is the latter. Why you may ask? Because you are smarter than the average Joe, so know better. The only discredited pariahs left these days who keep on with the ‘GW science is wrong/ exaggerated/a conspiracy’ line going are all paid by vested interests, and/or have a late onset dementia or psychosis. Eg Carter, Monckton, and Plimer.

    But the facts are that the science really is in. It’s all over. 98%* of climate scientists tell us that global warming is real and human activity related. That will do me as a basis for urgent action. Any mock ‘debate’ (or should that be Monck debate?) about xcy=z or whatever is meaningless. If you are right the climate scientists will accept your views, and you may win the Nobel Prize. Until then, dream on.

    * The statistics of late onset mental disorders would explain the missing 2%.

  48. [ Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    There is no way I’m the nerdiest person on this site (I scored 83).]

    81.

  49. [
    I always knew I was the dumbest person on this site, I managed a score of 23 on the nerdy scale.
    ]

    vic

    I scored 16! And got this

    [
    Not nerdy, but then again maybe not all that cool either.
    ]

  50. Diogenes
    [Abbott was taught by Jesuits but isn’t a Jesuit.]
    He may not be technically a Jesuit, but he’s a carrier. RU 486 for example. But I guess Opus Dei is more hardcore than the Jesuits, although I know Jesuits like to wear white shirts in business. No colours. Not that that is damaging. We need a bit of religious education from any Jesuits or Opus Dei members on PB – perhaps one of the Shoppies can help? 😀

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