Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.

These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.

The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:

Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.

I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:

• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.

• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.

• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.

• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.

• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.

• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12,800 comments on “Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [What would be interesting, and refreshing for our democracy, would be if a genuinely centrist party could fill a gap between the ALP and LIB. That would be VERY interesting…]

    And at the moment – if one existed – they would be riding high in the polls.

  2. [BK, she is open to interlocutary interruptus!]
    That’s the only type of interruptus I could contemplate having with Sophie.

  3. [Carey Moore
    Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
    Your post-poll talking points:]



  4. I take back my earlier castigation of qanda.

    Tonight qanda is having the debate on AS I’ve wanted our country to have for years.

  5. My estimate for tonight’s newspoll:

    Coalition 49
    ALP 30
    Greens 12
    Others 8

    TPP: Coalition 57 ALP 43

    Going by the results already released we know that the maximum primary vote for the coalition would be 54%. This is because the 70% of coalition supporters who prefer the coalition’s asylum-seeker policy would have to fit into the 38% of total support for the coalition’s asylum-seeker policy. A higher primary vote would break the 38% threshold. Vice-versa applies for the ALP. They couldn’t get more than 36% without breaking the 12% threshold.

    The estimate assumes that the combined support for a ‘none-of-the-above’ asylum seeker policy is about 40% and that about 90% of non-major party prefer ‘none-of-the-above’. I shaved more off the ALP top threshold than the Coalition top threshold because more labor voters support the coalition’s asylum seeker policy than the other way around.

    Whatever the case, tonights newspoll will not be remarkable. That’s why Shanahan et al didn’t realease the data together on Sunday night.

  6. ML

    Mr Turnbull’s job is to destroy the NBN. Ms Mirabella’s job is to destroy Australian industry.

    There is no evidence to suggest that Mr Mirabella would be better at destroying the NBN than Mr Turnbull or that Mr Turnbull would better than Ms Mirabella at destroying Australian industry.

  7. Bob Hawke was a good PM…….compare the state of the country when he was first elected with its state when he left.

    Fair enough, he was a bore , a womanizer, a drunk and an egomaniac. But these were small failings. He knew what to do and he did it. I never heard him lose an argument. I never saw him take a backward step and I never doubted his sincerity. He belongs with Gough, with the immortals…….

  8. Hawke did quite a few things:

    a) Made historical Industrial relations policy in 1983 after the America’s Cup win “Any boss that sacks anyone for not showing up to work today is a mug”. This could hardly have been more Australian (or more indicative of the attitude that would see Asia step on our manufacturing necks).
    b) Showed that PMs can cry on tellie.. not just when they lose elections.
    c) Demonstrated his love and commitment to his first wife, regardless of the pain and illness she was going through.
    d) Elevated Keating to treasurer, knowing him to be a loyal, faithful and competent portfolio-holder with no aspirations for PM.

    The guy was a saint and a genius.

  9. Carey

    You forgot my personal favorite.

    Poll Swing to Abbott
    Response: This is good for Labor because it will make people think seriously that Abbott might be PM and decide to go Labor

  10. Sophie just said 43% of Najuru mob ended up in Oz.

    Palmer just walks away from his earlier comments by saying ‘too hard, let’s not go over old ground’.

    He can’t criticise the Liberals, can he.

  11. [
    craigreucassel Craig Reucassel
    I can break the dangerous ‘people smugglers model’ by shipping people to Australia on a safe boat for just $10,000. #qanda
    2 minutes ago]

  12. wal kolla

    [Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    With the NBN, will I get a faster, bigger and clearer picture of Sophie?]

    Yep and in 12D and with Rodiya and Arwi subtitles as a bonus 🙂

  13. [You forgot my personal favorite.

    Poll Swing to Abbott
    Response: This is good for Labor because it will make people think seriously that Abbott might be PM and decide to go Labor]

    You also forgot my personal favourite…

    Poll Swing to Abbott
    Response: 2 more years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Comments are closed.

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