Nielsen struck a blow for transparency yesterday by releasing comprehensive data for their polling on asylum seekers, featuring detail on the questions and how they were asked, breakdowns by state, location, gender, age and voting intention, and no fewer than eight tables cross-tabulating various results for the eight questions asked. They even went so far as to include the raw numbers they reached after weighting the responses for age, gender and location, not that this particularly tells us much.
The poll also deserves credit for posing thoughtfully crafted questions on a complex and contentious subject. No doubt taking inspiration from Murray Goot and Ian Watson’s recent paper on public opinion and asylum seekers, which noted that results had been heavily influenced by “the way questions are framed, the kinds of questions that precede these questions (and) the range of possible responses the questions allow”, the Nielsen report offered the following:
It is important to note that the results of opinion polls on this issue are more sensitive to the wording of the questions asked than for many other topics. This is because the issues are often emotional for some and complicated for all. Respondent knowledge on this subject is never complete. The task of adequately condensing complex options into fair but meaningful questions is also a difficult one.
The questions in this poll were stripped of their political context as much as possible. For example the ‘sent to another country to be assessed’ option was not offered in the context of deterrence, nor was any human or financial cost alluded to. It was not offered as Labor or Coalition policy (e.g. by calling it the ‘Malaysian solution’ or the ‘Pacific solution’).
The Fairfax papers asserted that the poll showed voters “at odds with both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott and the perception that attitudes have hardened against asylum seekers”, and certainly the figures point to a more liberal attitude than the tenor of political debate would suggest. However, The Age gilded the lily a little with a graphic showing 60 per cent believed those assessed as genuine refugees should be allowed to stay in Australia permanently. It takes a bit of digging to appreciate that this excludes the 15 per cent who didn’t believe the asylum seekers should be assessed at all, having preferred that they be “sent out to sea”. The number supporting settlement in Australia was nonetheless a very solid 49 per cent, although there remained a combined 44 per cent in favour of the less liberal options of temporary protection visas (29 per cent support) and sending boats back out to sea (15 per cent). The same issue occurs with The Age’s figures for whether boat arrivals should be held in detention (64 per cent) or allowed into the community (32 per cent): putting the aforementioned 15 per cent back in (together with the 4 per cent “other/don’t know“), the results come down to 52 per cent and 26 per cent.
Regarding the treatment of asylum seekers on arrival, the results can be broken down thus:
22% – Allowed to live in the Australian community
12% – Detained in Australia, excluding children
17% – Detained in Australia, including children
4% – Sent to another country, allowed to live in community there
23% – Sent to another country and detained there
4% – Assessed for refugee status, no opinion on detention
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
4% – Other/don’t know
And on their treatment after being assessed for refugee status:
49% – Settled in Australia
29% – Granted temporary protection visas
2% – Returned to country of origin
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
5% – Other/don’t know
To those who are ready to junk the orthodox view on this subject, I would offer a few notes of caution. Certainly there was no majority in favour of assessing refugee status in Australia at the time of the Tampa episode, when Nielsen and Morgan polls had between 68 per cent and 77 per cent in favour of turning boats away. It is hardly plausible that so many of these respondents have had changes of heart that only 15 per cent now remain. What it likely shows is how the finer point of public opinion on this issue are shaped by the terms of the debate at the time. The symbolism in August/September 2001 involved boats being either allowed to land or held at bay by the military – only as the Howard government scrambled to effect its “Pacific solution” was the public alerted to the fact that the latter course only constituted half a policy. This may have led to a change in questions posed and answers given in opinion polls, but it doesn’t follow that there was a shift in underlying attitudes.
This leads to a point that occurs to me about the wording of Nielsen’s “sent to another country to be assessed” option: for many respondents, Nauru might not register as “another country” in the sense that Malaysia does, as it is perceived either as a dependency of Australia or too insigificant to qualify as a “country”. This option may accordingly have been interpreted by some as an invitation to sign on for the Malaysia solution. If Nielsen had at least added enough political context to allow for the restoration of the Pacific solution as a response option, the poll may have told a somewhat different story.
UPDATE (22/8): Crikey reports the latest Essential Research has Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
ABC has a wider audience than the major Capitals. Maybe they are trying to soft soap a bit for their wider geographic reach.
Greensborough Growler 6239
[As she strolled past opposition MPs’ offices, Christopher Pyne and Joe Hockey, like two schoolyard ne’er-do-wells, trailed about 10 paces behind, heckling. Hockey was bellowing the Engelbert Humperdinck lyrics: “Please release me, let me go, ’cause I don’t love you any more …” Pyne, doing his best to affect a menacing gravitas, was taunting repeatedly: “You’re drowning Julia, not waving, you’re drowning.”]
As I mentioned earlier such behaviour by men who aspire to some of the highest positions in the land is truly embarrassing. They do not seem to have moved beyond Uni Young Liberals and undergrad debating.Do they really think that a) It is funny or b) Cutting remarks? Voters of Australia,do you really want guys like this to run the place and have the power to affect your lives and those of your children and loved ones ?
Interesting comments about 7.30pm and the ABC news tonight.
I refuse to watch either but comments here, in a strange way, bring a bit of joy to my heart.
Must of been a real bad day for the tories today if the ABC is making such a effort to clean up after it.
poroti,
Would be good if the Fat and Skinny epitaph sticks.
I just saw the most biased, one sided news report I’ve ever seen from Mark Simpkin. Borderline lying.
Wouldn’t it be great if it was proven Jones did accept a fee?
Now I know why Scott is ditching arts programs. They are now part of 7.5.
kezza2 5638
[And this caption from a photo supplied by a Ruth Bonnet (also from 4 hours ago)
Above: Drivers waiting their turn: there were two lots of convoys left from EPIC and more from other locations, so I would say the number of vehicles is over a thousand.
No wonder they’re in trouble economically – can’t count either.]
Hockey and Robb are their numbers men?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-fee-me-and-alan-jones-how-question-of-money-turned-crowd-nasty-20110822-1j6fu.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Greensborough Growler
[Would be good if the Fat and Skinny epitaph sticks.]
Meanwhile keep this image in mind when the dynamic duo are doing a double act 🙂
Darn,
Who paid for him to be there?
Airfares, salary etc? Did he take annual leave like all the Convoyers?
Mentioned he’d raised $65k. How was that spent.
Is there any medium in Australia by which the government can promulgate its policies without paying for it?
ducky
via the armed forces
Is Ita saying bad things about Pinocchio on Australian Story now?
poroti,
Classic.
BB I hope you put that in writing an email to Bob Brown we need to keep the pressure up
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 at 12:42 pm | Permalink
Mr Jones is tottering on about a conspiracy about 2 kilometre long convoy of trucks blocked at the ACT/NSW border.
The AFP are saying that there is no such thing.
My guess is that the aliens have abducted the convoy.]
Maybe they were beamed out of there by that new laser technology in Germany that Jones had discovered.
gusface,
My son-in-law is in the ADF. A non-show for that job (Riley evil with Abbott. Had to tell him TA had 1 hour plus notice).
1000 jobs gone is not a good situation for all those poor buggers.
But one positive is the MRRT well could be a very popular policy by the government. How will the libs look voting against it especially when the huge profits of the miners are lined up against the job losses in other sectors?
I think its BHP that will release its profits this week ? Predictions are for the biggest 12 months ever.
Gina, Twiggy and co will look pretty ordinary with all their noise.
if you walked in to your lounge room saw the picture of the PM with blue scope and job losses you would of thought she sacked them
i watched her pres conf she was so so good and showed so much empathy for the people there.
paul howes was supporting the minning tax today at that news conf and all the workers where nodding their heads in agreement.
Re Alan Jones and his favourites among the “Rugger Bugger” set, I always remember him affectionaltely referring to new Balmain Tigers recruit (Gloria was coach) Mark Geyer, as rough as guts and straight out out of Penrith (as in the song – There’s only one ‘f’ in Penrif), as “Colt”. Not sure what it all meant, though…
Meanwhile the Libyan version of Der Untergang continues as fighting is now breaking out around Gaddafi’s compound
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/fighting-breaks-out-at-gaddafis-compound-2341852.html
“Ita is tough”. Something wrong here. Is she supposed to be an hombre? How about competent or visionary.
[6264 This little black duck
Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 at 8:00 pm | Permalink
Is Ita saying bad things about Pinocchio on Australian Story now
]
yes i linked that today earlier,
Doyley,
One good thing. They’re all to be paid what they are owed. I like honesty, up-front and commitment to promise.
[6255 gloryconsequence
Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 at 7:52 pm | Permalink
I just saw the most biased, one sided news report I’ve ever seen from Mark Simpkin]
you saw that to did you, my oh who takes no notice usually just shook his head
about the whole news tonight from the blue scope thing till that bit.
i have written to BB and to the minister, no good writing to the abc of course.
so we have to get very pushy with this, so glory will you write also.
my say,
Thank you. Am watching.
I love Ita for the way she got over her lisping.
[Gina, Twiggy and co will look pretty ordinary with all their noise.]
FMG recorded a $1b profit last week. Up on $500m or so the previous year.
ducky
she had a risp?
Unfortunately Mr Mulcare has been ordered to reveal names and the stew may prevented whereby he wins his court case against NoW to keep paying his legals.
[Part of Mulcaire’s problem is money. A month ago, James Murdoch, under questioning from members of Parliament, confirmed that his company had been paying for Mulcaire’s lawyers and, duly embarrassed, promised to halt that flow of cash. Since Mulcaire is not privately wealthy and British justice is very expensive, that in principle strips the investigator of his ability to defend his own interests in the dozens of civil lawsuits against News International.
In what British tabloids might call a “bizarre twist,” Mulcaire, a convicted criminal, is now suing his former employers in an apparent effort to force them to resume paying his legal bills.
What looks like a rift may, however, be something different, because it remains the case that Mulcaire’s legal interests and those of News International overlap considerably. Mulcaire’s reticence, after all, has always suited News International, whose principal tactic in the civil courts has been to avoid disclosure. So, if Muclaire were to win his case against them and get back the flow of money for his lawyers’ bills, News International would probably not be very upset.
By then, however, it may be too late]
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/22/glenn-mulcaire-lawsuit-pushes-rupert-murdoch-s-shadow-man-into-spotlight.html
“Rupert’s is a tough organization.” Lots of questions there.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-22/ita-buttrose-rupert-murdoch/2850338?section=entertainment
very interesting to see what they reply was
This little black duck 6262
I’ve been thinking along the same lines. Perhaps they need to take out full page ads in all newspapers, with a tick against all their achievements, and an outline of what is to come.
Unfortunately, it would have to be paid by the ALP, but I think the situation is such it needs to be done.
I am sure most Australians wouldn’t have a clue of what has been achieved as the MSM are not interested in anything positive.
[One good thing. They’re all to be paid what they are owed. I like honesty, up-front and commitment to promise.[]
would you know that if you watched the abc. though it seemed very mixed up story
[Wouldn’t it be great if it was proven Jones did accept a fee?]
Jones is the patron of the gallileo organisation that co-sponsored the event, you do not do the patron thing free of charge, of course he got a fee.
Tlbd @6276
,
Agree 100%
confessions @6280,
And Abbott will be standing up for the poor miners.
[So, if Muclaire were to win his case against them and get back the flow of money for his lawyers’ bills, News International would probably not be very upset.]
That does not make sense.
[Doyley
Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
Interesting comments about 7.30pm and the ABC news tonight.
I refuse to watch either but comments here, in a strange way, bring a bit of joy to my heart.
Must of been a real bad day for the tories today if the ABC is making such a effort to clean up after it.]
you have to worry about the standard of education, when people think you can just have another election of dd or even drive your truck up to the door of parliment house, i would think even tradesman and delivery people would have to go through strick secuirty , you wonder dont you.
[paul howes was supporting the minning tax today at that news conf and all the workers where nodding their heads in agreement.]
Yes. This might be a big opportunity for the government to wrong foot Abbott if they play their cards right. It might even provide a persuasive political rationale for the original super profits mining tax.
SkyNews a fair report.
Emphasised that numbers were down.
Showed Jones abusing their reporter, and then him saying about the blockade being blocked.
Followed not only by police saying it hadn’t happened but one of the truckers saying that, yes, they had been stopped, but it was so that police could discuss proceedures with them and delay only a matter of minutes – wtte that Jones must have misunderstood situation.
Very clear from report that numbers below expectations and that Jones acted like a prat.
my say,
Of course. The ABC was doing a hatchet job on the government. BlueScope have not been underhand.
As regards the Vexnews article on Sloppy and Pyne.
[As she strolled past opposition MPs’ offices, Christopher Pyne and Joe Hockey, like two schoolyard ne’er-do-wells, trailed about 10 paces behind, heckling. Hockey was bellowing the Engelbert Humperdinck lyrics: “Please release me, let me go, ’cause I don’t love you any more …” Pyne, doing his best to affect a menacing gravitas, was taunting repeatedly: “You’re drowning Julia, not waving, you’re drowning.”]
If that was happening in my workplace, they would be at the very least threatened with the sack for harassment. If they were union members and came to me (as their delegate) for advice i would tell them they are idiots and if they want to keep their jobs they should change their ways, grovel for forgiveness, and consider themselves lucky if they were working there tomorrow.
Hah. i actually did give very similar advice to a bloke i worked with once. He did, and kept his job, although he hadn’t done ANYTHING near as bad as this.
BTW am undergoing exquisite suffering.
Had dentist’s appointment this arvo – as the anaesthetic wore off I started feeling very miserable, so lay on couch to watch news.
In an effort to cheer me up, my dog brought her big marrow bone over to me – and dropped it right in the middle of my forehead.
Still seeing stars.
This little black duck
[One good thing. They’re all to be paid what they are owed. I like honesty, up-front and commitment to promise]
Yes and without the need for the “Stan Howard” option. Just to show The Australian was not always nice to JWH there is the following
[Today the Australian newspaper claimed that acceptance of the scheme would prevent an inquiry into National Textiles’ management and Directors, of which Mr Howard’s brother, Stan, is one. The editorial was scathing, raising questions about the government’s probity and calling the taxpayer funded bail-out improper, and policy on the run.]
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s98866.htm
Even more galling was the #%^#^$&$ saying that it was quite kosher for employers to raid employee superannuation monies in an effort to save the company. With the cherry on top being his declaration it was basically a one off.
Seems that a Mr Jones is being cast in a less than favourable light, for now. What next?
Truckers being stopped by police? If he were dead, CW McCall would be turning in in his grave:
“Big Ben, this here’s the Rubber Duck
We just ain’ta gonna pay no toll
So we crashed the gate doing 98
I say “let them truckers roll, 10-4”
Now that’s how it is done.
Ducky
the stocks
or the tumbril
I think Mr Jones is like Rupert Murdoch. They have reached their use by date.