No Morgan poll this week, so I’ll instead relate the results of the latest semi-regular (about three times a year) Australian National University Social Research Centre phone survey of around 1200 respondents on a range of matters other than voting intention, conducted between April 27 and May 10. The special subject chosen for this survey was gambling, and it found 74 per cent support for mandatory pre-commitment measures as advocated by Andrew Wilkie, with 70 per cent expressing agreement that gambling should be more tightly controlled (so at least 4 per cent offered the counter-intuitive response that they favoured the former but not the latter). Against this, 42 per cent took the view that “the government has no right to restrict a person’s gambling”. There were slightly fewer supporters for mandatory pre-commitment among those who identified as regular gamblers, but they were still in a substantial majority.
As always, respondents were also asked to nominate the first and second most important problems facing Australia today, and to rate their satisfaction with how the country is heading on a five-point scale. The latter question produced almost identical results to the previous survey: 51 per cent satisfied and 12 per cent very satisfied, against only 20 per cent dissatisfied and 7 per cent very dissatisfied. The “most important problems” question is best examined from a long view: the following chart adds responses for “most important” to “second most important” for six of the issues canvassed, going back to the first such survey in early 2008.
By far the outstanding feature is a GFC-inspired spike in economy/jobs which washed out of the system at around the time Labor’s federal poll numbers began to tank. The scale of this obscures some of the trends in other categories: a steady descent in environment from 30 per cent to the high teens, an escalation in immigration from barely into double figures to its present place in the low thirties, and an apparently mounting concern – traceable, it seems, to the first half of last year – that government should be, in whatever sense, “better”.
Another recent poll result that has so far gone unmentioned here is from Essential Research, which occasionally holds back on questions from its regular polling for exclusive use by the Ten Network. This one is yet another humiliating leadership poll for Julia Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd 37 per cent to 12 per cent on the question of preferred Labor leader. The commonly raised objection that such figures are skewed by mischievous Coalition supporters is dealt with by the fact that Rudd leads by 43 per cent to 31 per cent even among Labor supporters. Speaking of mischief, Malcolm Turnbull and Bob Brown were also thrown into the mix, respectively scoring 11 per cent and 3 per cent. However, it’s hard to say exactly what respondents were making of their inclusion: Turnbull was far behind Rudd among Coalition voters, and Brown was far behind both Rudd and Gillard among Greens voters. Of the Labor also-rans, Stephen Smith recorded 7 per cent, Greg Combet 2 per cent and Bill Shorten 1 per cent.
Besides which:
• The parliamentary library has published a paper by Murray Goot and Ian Watson with the self-explanatory title, “Population, immigration and asylum seekers: patterns in Australian public opinion”. Exhaustively reviewing public opinion measurement dating back to the late 1970s, they find that while opposition to immigration has increased since 2005, it is still lower than it was in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The fall in the intervening period is put down to declining unemployment, while the rise since has been driven by boat arrivals. Opposition to immigration is nonetheless found to be primarily environmentally rather than economically motivated – though racial motivation is, it seems, placed in pollsters’ too-hard baskets. The archetype of the immigration opponent is Australian-or-British born, of low income and education, and lives in public housing – though in defiance of other stereotypes, they are more likely to be female than male, and as likely to live in inner as outer metropolitan areas.
• Fairfax economics writer Peter Martin reviews the literature on that hottest of topics, the impact of media partisanship on voting behaviour. His broad conclusion is that while newspapers have very little impact, “television and radio are different”.
• Antony Green examines data on above-the-line voting patterns for the Legislative Council at the recent-ish New South Wales state election. The system here differs from the Senate in that voters can sequentially number as many parties as they choose above-the-line, after which their vote exhausts. Voters are thus spared the farce of having their preferences allocated in full by their one nominated party. The figures show that despite the different rules, voters continue to follow habits acquired from the Senate, with 82.2 per cent voting for one party above the line: 15.6 per cent numbered multiple parties above the line, with the remaining 2.2 per cent voting below the line. Antony reckons that if this system were adopted for the Senate, the high number of exhausted votes “would make the filling of the final Senate seat in each state a regular lottery rather than the occasional lottery under the current group ticket voting system”. However, I can’t see this myself: looking at the last two elections, each state elected four to five Senators off quotas derived from the primary vote, and after that major party and Greens candidates had easily enough in the way of surpluses to see off any micro-party chancers who might have been in the race for the final one or two seats (I await to hear where I’ve gone wrong here). However, double dissolution elections would be a different matter.
• Ben Raue at New Matilda and Peter Brent at Mumble review the Mike Rann situation. The timing may remain farcically up in the air, but the smart money says that South Australia will sooner or later be looking at simultaneous by-elections for Rann’s seat of Ramsay and his former deputy Kevin Foley’s seat of Port Adelaide. Defeat in both would cut the government’s majority from five seats to one: luckily for them, the respective margins are 18.0 per cent and 12.8 per cent. However, safe seats often prove the most vulnerable to high-profile independents, and Antony points to Max James (who polled 11.0 per cent at the election last year) and Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson as possible contenders in Port Adelaide. A Liberal strategy of boosting independent challengers by declining to field a candidate is complicated by the fact that the swing they require there is not quite beyond the realms of possibility.
• If having the government’s majority chipped away through by-election defeats doesn’t do it for you, Family First MLC Robert Brokenshire is introducing a bill to the South Australian parliament allowing for early “recall” elections in the event that a petition calling for one is signed by 150,000 people within 30 days of its initiation.
• Malcolm Mackerras reviews some election timing history in Crikey. Also from Mackerras: a month or two ago I raised an eyebrow when he professed himself “quite confident in predicting there will be no by-elections during the current term”, since “Members of Parliament do not die these days”. On July 6 he offered a follow-up in the Canberra Times, which fleshed out the point that deaths of sitting parliamentarians have become a lot less common:
The essential reason is the generosity these days of parliamentary superannuation schemes and the ease with which former politicians get good jobs post-politics. In the past the typical politician expected to fail in the employment market post-politics. Since parliamentary salaries were good there was a great incentive for the politician to stay in his seat for as long as possible. Also medical advances mean that longer lives are now normal. A current Labor member in any of about 30 marginal seats killed in a car crash would, of course, wreck the Gillard Government. Surely Labor could not win a by-election in such a circumstance. However, such an occurrence is very unlikely.
UPDATE (8/7/11): Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, now leading 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition has gained a point to 50 per cent and Labor is down one to 30 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Also:
The survey also revealed remarkable levels of ignorance about the numbers of asylum seekers coming to Australia. 36% of voters believe that the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has “increased a lot” in the past 12 months, and 26% say it has “increased a little”, with 20% saying numbers have stayed the same. Only 7% of voters believe the number of asylum seekers has fallen. When told that the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has fallen by more than half this year, the proportion of people “very concerned” about asylum seekers falls from 43% to 33% and those “a little” or “not at all” concerned goes from from 30% to 39%.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
[Australia doesn’t need to worry about GFCII, Wayne saved us last time and he can do it again. How does everyone feel about Pink carpets and school basketball courts?]
A smart arse comment
[Vera will be glad about this: Kevin Rudd is making such a fast recovery from his operation that he could very well be back at work before the original estimated time of early October.]
Why just Vera?
american are angry with the tea party types, Mr, swan you mention the liberals
seem to have many slogans similar.
i have been reading the letters on the New YOrk Times very intersting. this one is just about the same as many
[Republicans and Tea Partiers should take responsibility for what they have brought us. You can’t behave like fools willing to throw the US and world economies over the cliff to protect your ideology and your “pledge” and expect to be rated as consistent, effective and predictable. ]
test post
One credit rating agency downgrades the USA.
Forget about S & P in the short term at least. One or two countries that spring to mind will stick with it and the US treasury. Try China and Japan.
Anyone salavating at the thought of Australia going down the gurgler need to take a deep breath. May not be immune if anything happens but any effects will be well handled.
Anyway, bit early to prempt any world wide recession.
Massive ranges in last night trading in the US anyway –
Dow was up 0.5%. But range for the day was 4.6%
SP500 was down 0.1%. But range for the day was 4.3%
Nasdaq was down 0.9%. But range for the day was 5.2%
Nasdaq was down 0.6%. But range for the day was 5.1%
Maybe the word did get out but people didn’t know which way to jump.
The XAO has had daily movements of over 1% for 5 of the last 6 trading days with average ranges of 2.2%.
We are set for an interesting week all around.
By stick with it I mean the USA. Irrespective of S&P I can’t see any short term exit from US Treasury bonds etc. Thats what counts.
ifonly
[Australia doesn’t need to worry about GFCII, Wayne saved us last time and he can do it again. How does everyone feel about Pink carpets and school basketball courts?]
Australia was saved by a collection factors. Continuing demand from China was important, businesses cutting work hours in preference to sacking people was important, the government stimulus, notably the cash payments (which was effectively a tax refund) and the Building the Education Revolution construction projects was important, and finally unions showing extreme restraint by putting on hold significant wage increases for 18 months helped as well.
A more sophisticated analysis of how Australia stayed out of recession is more useful to constructive debate than idiotic sarcasm from ideological hacks who lack the ability to critical evaluate anything.
[Finny,
Your beautiful numbers just did a wander over to the tucker site.]
puffy, like to see that. got a link?
more letters, well thank god we have our gov, and our treasury and MR Swan and the PM no trickle down effect here like USA and Canada.,
this is of course was what hockey wanted,. said many times about putting taxes so people would spend well they didnt in the usa. and would not of done here either what we did worked.
had an email from our cousin in canada to day they lost their business cabinet making in the GFC they said the canadian gov as of today are getting rid of public servants.
also they dont have a system as good as ours for retirement re supper ( thank you Paul Keating}
so see how the tories destroy and not build
letters below ny times
[If you Wikipedia the presidents who have run up the debt the most you would see that the 4 previous Republican presidents have done it.
Thank you Ronald Reagan and George W Bush for the steepest climbs in the national debt.
Recommend Recommended by 6th, 20111:27 amIt all goes back to Reagan. Trickle down economics have come home to roost. I am ashamed of America]
Article in today’s Herald Sun by Laurie Oakes. A theme Bushfire Bill has talked of here…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/austrsalian-economy-is-far-from-a-spent-force/story-fn56baaq-1226109422776
[…..The bank lowered its growth forecast slightly, but still has the Australian economy growing by 3 per cent in 2011.
Yet most discussion of economic matters is so pessimistic that we are in danger of talking ourselves into a funk.
A TV pundit not long ago used the word “recession” eight times in a single report.
And the Opposition is determinedly talking the economy down.
Shadow Finance Minister Andrew Robb, for example, stated baldly in a radio interview on Thursday: “There is no investment.”
That is plainly untrue, as was immediately evident when the interviewer shot back: “I heard a report yesterday saying investment in Australia is running at a 50-year high.”
“The investment in the mining sector is,” Robb had to admit.
…………………………
The latest figures to set off a bout of hand wringing showed the value of retail sales falling by 0.1 per cent in June. Over the financial year, sales grew at their slowest rate for 50 years.
But even here, positive points can be made. While retail spending has slowed, growth in spending on things like education, health, transport (including overseas travel) and recreation is higher than its average over the last 30 years.
One figure in particular leaped out of the statistics, though. Retail sales in NSW in June dived by 0.5 per cent — compared with just 0.1 per cent in Victoria and 0.2 per cent in Queensland.
No one can be sure of the reasons, but there is an interesting theory.
The chorus of negativity about the economy from shock jocks and other sections of the media is much louder in Sydney than in Melbourne or Brisbane.
………
It is fair enough to be concerned about some trends in the economy. Swan acknowledges many people are doing it tough.
But our situation is a far cry from that in Europe and the US. We should be talking ourselves up, not down.]
Worth reading in full.
Good afternoon Bludgers. I’m back just in time for the start of the Bledisloe Cup.
The Tea Party would be well pleased with themselves seeing the US downgrade and the collapse off the DJIA. They want to wreck the economy and claim it was Obama’s fault.
Now, where have we seen that strategy before?
A few letters to the editor in today’s SMH, from people grateful for a break from Tony Abbott this past week! 🙂
Politics without Abbott is like a yacht without a sea anchor.
such a sad sarcastic comment, every one suffers in a recession or a depression, thinking of the kids and their businesses and mortgages, and every one else who would suffer we dont need sarcasim
obviously people like evan have never lived through hard times,. this is not the time for this, but of course we will see that from the australian tea party united group of course.
Same issue talked of in a blog…
http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2011/08/06/talking-down-the-economy/
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
PJK was right about the #TeaParty: “Give me the POTUS or i wreck this place”
8 seconds ago
my say, to be fair to evan it wasn’t he who made the sarcastic comment, not this time at anyway. Ifonly was the one, a typical response by a Liberal hack.
Socrates,
[For that matter, we could ask why did they downgrade some Australian States (eg Qld) when their real default risk is IMO zero.]
There is only one explanation that I can think of.
“Hi, the LNP here, could you do us a little favour. We are having some difficulty getting back into government here in Qld because this dastardly Labor Government seems to be governing the State extremely well.
Would you mind terribly giving them a poor credit rating, yes we know that they should be at AAA because they are running the state so well, but, you know, a little down-grade won’t do any harm, except to Labor and you can jack it back up to where it belongs when we get back into power.
It’ll make us look good and help us to go on to further terms in Government. Thanks awfully”!
There appears to be a great deal of angst coming from the right side of politics. By right I don’t mean right as in correct, more your run of the mill delusional, money is God, give me mine now and don’t ever ask me to pay for social programs and the planet isn’t in any trouble sort of people. You know the sort I’m talking about. Those, should they be unfortunate enough to be sentenced to the gallows, quite happily tender on the supply of rope to be used. As long as there is a “quid” in it …eh guys. Anybody needing a grandmother in a hurry could do worse than to contact them. I’m sure they”ll have someone on offer. Their firstborn may take a bit of negoitiation though. But, as they say, everything is achievable. Just buy a few like minded politicians, as certain, unnamed global conglomerates are wont to do. Making sure that the purchased politicians are brain dead robots programmed to repeat your agenda ad nauseum is a given. Confected outrage programming is extra. I just happen to have to hand a copy of the brochure and the following is some of what’s on offer……..unfortunately no prices are listed.
Cunning…..two(2) types are offered.
1.
Normal everyday type of cunning…ie; agreeing with all and sundry, wherever they are and whatever they’re whinging about. Go bike riding, surfing whenever media wants to change the meme. Go on overseas holiday when debates on important nation building policies seems to be lost.
2.
Slippery as a shithouse rat…ie: answer two or three questions at media events then scurry away in case the questions become hard or, God forbid, intelligent. Appear only on the talkback radio stations of choice……Disclaimer:….unfortunately one of the older models had a glitch in the memory bank recently. After recall and re-programming you can be assured the ” Gawping like a feral carp on the riverbank” app is no longer connected……er, we think…..hope.
3.
Ethics and morality.
You can be fully assured that none of these qualities can be found in any of our programable robots. While anecdotal evidence has suggested this may once have been the case. You can rest easy. So thoroughly has the dna been sanitised that anything other than blandness of intellect and blind obedience to your instructions will never happen.
4.
Empathy and/or compassion for the plight of those less fortunate.
As there has never been a market for this we, quite simply, have never figured it into our programing. We have it on good authority that it does exist. However given the massive amount of re-tooling we would have to do to incorparate it into our production line we feel, as do our customers, that both empathy and compassion are outmoded fad type programing. Probably best suited to fools who believe that mankind can indeed rise to the heights of noble cause and purity of thought.
5.
Intelligence Quota..”IQ”
Has never been available…..and never will be.
This is just a sample from the brochure which fell into my lap.
[Leroy
Posted Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 5:16 pm | Permalink
Article in today’s Herald Sun by Laurie Oakes. A theme Bushfire Bill has talked of here…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/austrsalian-economy-is-far-from-a-spent-force/story-fn56baaq-1226109422776
…..The bank lowered its growth forecast slightly, but still has the Australian economy growing by 3 per cent in 2011.]
so has mr oakes realised what is happening in this country and who they are.
lets hope so, the things that have happened the last few weeks seem to be either leading to renewal of
or the other way,.
the murdoch thing, the dreadful tragedy in scandinavia, now this, there is a pathway here when you think backwards.
will australians. now get behind our good gov, and our pm
who has got us through last time and continues to govern in extraordinary circumstances. its really up to the press to made the difference can they step up to the plate, lets see,
Yes Leroy, thanks – an interesting read.
Oakes and some others seem to be coming around to the view that Labor’s policy implementation is gathering speed and looking good.
The PM and THe Treasurer talking up Australia today. Hockey, Robb will continue talking it down.
Will Australians react to the difference ? PM Julia Gillard right place at the right time. Just like Australia and Asia. People concentrate on China. Keep your eye on India as well and Korea just to name two.
We shall pevail even though the Australian chapter of the Tea Party hope we do not.
Was it Mark Twain who said wtte ” Reports of my death are exagerated.. “
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
During #GFC, many Govts spent billions to save the Banks etc in trouble. Who save the Govts now? Aust Govt didnt have to do that #auspol
37 seconds ago
yes gary you are correct there. sorry evan.
Ian – you have nailed it yet again.
Well done old son 🙂
[During #GFC, many Govts spent billions to save the Banks etc in trouble. Who save the Govts now? Aust Govt didnt have to do that #auspol]
And we’ve still got 4.75% of interest rate to play with.
And still a relatively low debt to GDP ratio.
BK, he he he, never got sick of posting this:
Let me remind everyone of the beautiful set of numbers:
1. Unemployment 4.9%
2. Inflation 3.6%
3. Public Net Debts 7% GDP
4. RBA Interest rate 4.75%
5. Growth rate 3.3%
6. AUD Vs USD 1.0403
7. Trade Surplus – $2B jun 2011- Australia’s $2 billion-plus trade surplus for June brought the tally for the last financial year to $22.4 billion – easily the biggest surplus in raw terms for the past 40 years of records compiled by the ABS
8. “ALP best manager of money, history shows” – Mega
9. Australian families depending on one breadwinner pay among the lowest amounts of tax in the world and have become better off under the Gillard Government – Natsem
10. Investment in the next year in mining and related infra-structure projects $140B
11. Labor’s Tax take 21.75% of GDP Vs 25% under Liberals
12. No interest rise for the 10th consecutive month Vs 10 consecutive rises under Howard/Costello. It is now expected no rises in the future with a prospect of interest rate cuts.
13. The number of people filling for bankruptcy in Australia has fallen by 16%.
14. Australia safe from debt crisis: OECD – http://afr.com/p/national/economy/australia_safe_from_debt_crisis_rgznLP6HTyYo7nGragUwyI #auspol
15. Credit Rating AAA
16. We are in Asia –
17. business investment spending is expected to grow by 15 per cent this year and another 15 per cent next year. – Ross Gittin
I think as far as NSW is concerned, things, at least, appear to be bad economically. In Sydney every conversation goes back to housing, and this is where the perception of bad economic times comes from. Rents keep going up, and wages don’t keep up. Whilst interest rates remain stable, house prices are still beyond reach..If a government could come up with a good affordable housing policy they would be hailed as heroes.
Sydney, also has many service industries, such as tourism, which have been hit hard by the rising dollar. Retail is also very visible, and it is on a downturn at present. But housing is the major problem, the one issue that all the 20-30 somethings I know talk about at work and socially.
Finns
Abbott can huff and puff but he’ll NEVER blow those figures down!
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
It’s time the #Wallaby downgrade the #AllBlack to A Triple Minus
26 seconds ago
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/aug/05/tea-party-media
this is interesting.
Positive articles in Oz too. Midweek dinner must have been a good one.
Seems to be all All Blacks so far.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/05/britain-global-economic-crisis-conservatives
Another tory on holiday.
[George Osborne is on holiday as a financial storm rages. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
In a speech last August, I warned of the perfect storm of factors that were facing the world economy and threatening to choke off its nascent recovery.
Twelve months on the winds of the storm are rising fast. And, just as in 2008, the storm is hitting from all sides: the eurozone in crisis; America in political paralysis; the pace of China’s growth slowing; and markets across the world in turmoil, including in Britain.
Comment is free
Where is Britain’s leadership in this global economic storm?In global economic crises the British chancellor has always led the response, but the Conservatives are nowhere to be seen]
i noticed though the dollar fell a couple of cents.
i wondered, if usa only now has AA rating and we have AAA rating would not our dollar go up.
can any one explain
[I think as far as NSW is concerned, things, at least, appear to be bad economically. In Sydney every conversation goes back to housing, and this is where the perception of bad economic times comes from. Rents keep going up, and wages don’t keep up.]
Yes, and apparently sixty percent of them think the answer is to vote for Abbott. Well good luck with that. (hope you’ve got a plan B).
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
As usual the #AllBlack peak too early
7 seconds ago
Really appreciate ‘the beautiful set of numbers’ by The Finnigans and hope to use them widely. To reinforce the current interest rate performance would you consider adding the words ‘compared to 6.75% when Howard was thrown out’ to point 4 – the RBA Interest rate?
The Finnigans
[As usual the #AllBlack peak too early]
The AB’s are still just warming up !
Another All Backs try!
[One figure in particular leaped out of the statistics, though. Retail sales in NSW in June dived by 0.5 per cent — compared with just 0.1 per cent in Victoria and 0.2 per cent in Queensland.
No one can be sure of the reasons, but there is an interesting theory.
The chorus of negativity about the economy from shock jocks and other sections of the media is much louder in Sydney than in Melbourne or Brisbane.]
Nice to see Oakes finally sees the light.
Backs = Blacks
It will be interesting to see how the markets react to S & P’S decision. How much respect does the financial sector have for S & P ? It will be a test for their legitimacy as much as the USA I would think. As I said earlier I would be surprised if it had a major effect on confidence in the US Treasury.
As well Europe may settle down a bit on Monday with the European Central Bank deciding to support Italy by investing in its bonds to stabilise that market.
Interesting times.
Abbott apparently holidaying in Switzerland. Could he be getting some advice from the Gnomes of Zurich? he might be asking them how to cultivate a leading first world economy with the prospect of a global downturn. he might have realised that it is time to take some interest in economics.
so what does the S&P downgrade mean? here is as selection of thoughts from various financial players, some with obvious self interest coming through ther statements. I suspect the downgrade itself is just the canary in the coalmine.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44042754/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/t/debt-downgrade-experts-offer-views-effects/#.Tjz2z2sl9hk
[Abbott apparently holidaying in Switzerland. Could he be getting some advice from the Gnomes of Zurich?]
If he talking to anyone with even a high school knowledge of economics then they would be telling him to STFU on matter economic unless he actually has something positive to say. Rather than telling everyone how badly things are going under the ALP, he should be telling them how much better they would be under the Lib/Nats.
I mean,its not like anyone actually expects him to utter the truth is it?? 🙂
Had load of issues logging on. For about 3 hours today i couldn’t even get the site and to log on had to go roundabout to get back to this thread. Weird.
Its difficult to see how it can possibly be taken as a positive against the background of the long list of US problems and those in Europe.
Maybe, just maybe it could galvanise the Yank politicians to work together in their country’s interest, but pigs might fly too. They are only months away from the start of the US primaries and the Presidential campaign.
In Australia the full year reporting season for company results is upon us and I think expectations are modest at best.
Seasonal factors (ie Sell in May and Go away, come back again on St. Leger Day – September) and themes are running to usual form, currently at least.
We shall see soon enough.
finny,
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/07/the-convoy-of-no-confidence-is-amassing-towards-canberra/
comment 793
it will be interesting to see if the corporations with a AAA rating start paying lower interest rates than US govt debt. secondly it shows the power of corporations in the US that they now have a higher rating than the govt an absurd scenario.