On voting intention, the latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than usual: they trail the Coalition 55-45 on two-party preferred, their primary vote is down a point to 30 per cent, and the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 46 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. However, it seems just about every poll has an added sting in the tail for Julia Gillard these days, and this one finds her recording yet another slump on her personal ratings, which are now at a disastrous 28 per cent approval and 62 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott by contrast is up four points on approval to 39 per cent, although his disapproval remains steady at a thoroughly unimpressive 52 per cent. Worst of all for Gillard, Abbott now leads her as preferred prime minister for the first time: 40 per cent to 39 per cent, compared with Gillard’s 41-38 lead last time.
The latest weekly Essential Research survey also has the Coalition 55-45 in front, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (down one) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down one). It too has its own particular sting for Julia Gillard, finding Labor would be leading 53-47 if Kevin Rudd was leader from primary votes of 45 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent for the Coalition. However, it also finds the Coalition would be much further ahead (59-41) under Malcolm Turnbull than Tony Abbott, so it is likely there is a fair bit of mischief-making by partisan respondents going on. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that there is an eight-point difference in the results for the two Labor contenders against a four-point difference for the Liberals.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments, responding to the assertion of Dennis Shanahan in The Australian that “only Paul Keating has had a worse personal rating than Gillard’s today”:
Depends how you measure it, but:
• If measured by net satisfaction there have been 18 worse results. One by Howard in 2001, one by Hawke in 1991 and the other sixteen by Keating, but six of Keating’s were before the election that he won. This is also true if measured by disapproval rating.
• If measured by approval rating there have been 19 worse results. One by Hawke and eighteen by Keating with eight of Keating’s before the election that he won.
More information please –
Paid US $ 580 Million
Sold for $ 35 Million
Am happy to be corrected if I have stuffed up ?
Or do you *object* to the “particularly mean and nasty” bit.
confessions
Yes I do appreciate the comments, but am a tad confused. 🙂
It may be that William is busy with his thesis. He did encourage us to police the quality here. Let’s do it.
Poroti – 5090
You got it in one!
Trouble is their kind of “left” is still somewhere to the right of Mrs Thatcher! – if that makes sense.
Cuppa
[Might be time to put the word out again via Twitter. I’d do it but so far have only 40 followers.]
Me too, but the beauty of twitter is that some of your followers may have hundreds following them or someone they retweet to may have a massive following.
[ There’s lot of this about, actually. In the wrong circumstances it starts wars and lots of people get hurt for real.
Yes, Bonhoeffer called it “cheap grace”. You rock up at Confession or Mass, go through the motions and then play up as much as you like til the next visit.]
Confession, as a sacrament, needed two Religious Knowledge periods to let it sink in.
The first lesson was all upbeat: just rock up to the priest, tell him what you’d done and you’d be forgiven… even mortal sins.
You could hear the collective “Whew!” from the masturbating schoolboys as this concept impressed itself on their very impressionable minds.. they’d thought they were destined for Hell In A Handbasket – and no return ticket – until then… (I say “they” because, naturally, I never masturbated… didn’t even know what it was for until many years later… I was an altar boy, after all… but digress).
Confession, at first dibs was, in short, a Get Out Of Jail Free card.
Then, next week, we had Lesson #2… Confession: The Downside.
Kids who attended the first lesson but were off sick for the second lesson have lived their lives thinking they could sin as much as they could, and then sucker God into forgiving them, so they could sin again. The trick was to not get run over by a bus in-between confessions. As Thursdays approached (Confessions were always on Thursdays), you could always see the sinners, looking right, then left, then right again, crossing the street. Their sins weighed heavily upon them, and they had to – quite literally – make it to the church on time, and intact, body and soul.
My theory (and it’s just a theory) is that Abbott never made it to Lesson #2. Maybe it was chicken pox. Maybe he’d heard rumours and just decided not to turn up. Whatever the case, he still seems to think that you can go out there and cut a swathe of sin through the community, and then turn up to confession and get it all expunged on the spot. A quick mea culpa and you’re right to sin again, and again… as often as necessary, and as possible.
Either that or he fancies himself as God’s Warrior, sinning on our behalf, so that the Greater Good may be accomplished. He reminds me of one of those Elizabethan Whiskey Priests, sworn in fealty to the Pope to assassinate Elizabeth R, the heathen Queen, with the assurance that the fat Italian prelate would put in a good for him “upstairs” when the time came. Sins committed in God’s name aren’t really sins at all, right?
One of his famous quotes is “”Sometimes it’s better to ask forgiveness than permission”. In AbbottWorld (TM), forgiveness is the easy way out, especially when the media look the other way. It makes sinning so much easier and goes someway to proving he never made it to that second RK lesson.
Either that or he’s a born hypocrite to whom lying is second nature.
Take your pick.
This Labor government, with the support of others, is progressive, not Right or Left.
Ducky
There were attempts earlier to divert Frank’s attentions away from trouble. It failed
I’ll give it a go, Dee 🙂
victoria,
Frank can’t help himself. Bilbo can’t his disparangers cut off at the pass without compromising open speech.
For me, I just scroll past bile.
Tricot
.
“Trouble is their kind of “left” is still somewhere to the right of Mrs Thatcher! – if that makes sense.”
.
Oh it does. It should also be a continued source of shame for Australia……….. well Queensland actually that the whole edifice of Apartheid was underpinned by the dreaded “Pass Laws” which were based (drum roll please) The Qld Aboriginal Protection Act.
ducky
The easiest thing to do is scroll past.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/06/never-forget-your-atm-receipt.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund%29
Some may have already seen this.
An ATM receipt *found* in the Hamptons near New York.
Receipt balance $ 99 Million or so.
Mmmm.
[rosa
Posted Friday, July 1, 2011 at 1:52 pm | Permalink
Victoria – Yep, about three hundred when I strolled past (when the Parrot was in full squawk). I’m sure the ABC will say it was a larger gathering than the Nuremberg rally, but it ain’t so. Sitting in my office listening to one screaming freak after another. Total assault on my civic rights.]
ABC NewsRadio were claiming ‘about 1000’, which I’d thought was a bit high on past carbon protest efforts. I wondered if Jones in his new hat as leader of the Galileo group had managed to dredge up a few more. But on your estimate, rosa, about 300.
I caught a bit of the 7pm TV news and I don’t think they mentioned a number – just a ‘good attendance’. They showed Angry Anderson, then a clip of Barnyard on one of his incoherent rants, before featuring the old fart himself. Jones at last seems to be showing his age and didn’t offer much beyond ‘Gillard must go’, which is probably what he raves on about every day on 2GB.
So much for the Peoples Revolt.
This little black duck@5111
I think you mean:
“This Labor government is transparently pragmatic right, with elements of DLP religiosity; but because of the necessity of agreements with the Greens and independents to govern in minority, it has been forced to act on carbon against its will.”
Speaking of Liberal coffers, I was reminded of this little story.
The Liberals, who never get tired of telling us how they are such fantastic economic managers, found themselves with a minor cash flow problem in Canberra, in fact things got so desperate a couple of years ago that….
Scammers!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/29/3256169.htm
[You have been Top of the Pops.
I did the Alt-PrintScr thing.]
???????
GD
Another PB Burgey, said he walked past and estimated 500. Either way, I would consider it an almighty flop
So beautifully said, Gorgeous Dunny.
Not sure if this has been linked too, but it aint bad either. I’m thinking there is a little bit of magic happening between Bob and Jules.
http://newmatilda.com/2011/07/01/greens-take-balance-power
victoria:
It’s intriguing, that’s for sure.
I’m trying to put myself in the shoes of sensible business leaders who are prepared to cop a carbon tax but one which is more like the CPRS than something the Greens would agree to. The only thing stopping that from happening is Tony Abbott. If the Liberals were at the table and prepared to negotiate then the Greens are irrelevent.
Now that it’s looking more and more like there will be no election for a while, the option of stopping a carbon price is off the table. So the alternative is to try to get a policy which best meets their needs. Abbott prevents this by virtue of his oppositionism.
Just a thought.
Couldn’t help myself! 😀
[Updated 1 hour 21 minutes ago
Tony Abbott urged economists to go beyond the “allure of market-based mechanisms” (AFP: Torsten Blackwood, file photo)
Audio: Abbott backs his climate policy over economists (PM) Audio: Anti-tax ad should focus on real Australians (PM) Audio: Industry groups launch campaign against carbon tax (The World Today) Related Story: Anti-carbon tax rally hits Sydney CBD Related Story: Business rallies troops for carbon tax fight Related Story: Carbon tax period as short as possible: PM Related Story: Abbott promises tax, spending cuts Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has criticised Australian economists for supporting a carbon tax and a market-based emissions trading scheme as planned by the Federal Government.
But high-profile economist Saul Eslake has hit back, saying Mr Abbott’s problem is that he cannot find an Australian economist who will support his “direct action” policy.
Speaking at a conference in Melbourne, Mr Abbott urged economists to “think again”, saying they should go beyond the “allure of market-based mechanisms”.
Mr Abbott cited Danish academic Bjorn Lomberg who, he said, had assembled a panel of international economists who do not think market-based mechanisms “are the way to go”.
“They think that research is the best way to go, particularly government-funded research, adaptation and direct action is a better way to go than what we describe in this country as market-based mechanisms,” Mr Abbott said.
“So it may well be that most Australian economists think that a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme is the way to go.
“Maybe that’s a comment on the quality of our economists rather than on the merits of the argument.”
However, it is the credibility of Mr Lomberg rather than Australian economists which may not stand up to scrutiny.
In 2003 the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty upheld a series of complaints laid about Lomberg’s book The Skepical Environmentalist.
They included scientific dishonesty, selective discarding of unwanted results, deliberately misleading statistical evidence, plagiarism and deliberate misinterpretation of others results.
The findings were later declared invalid on procedural grounds.
Mr Eslake, program director with the Grattan Institute, told ABC News Online it appears Mr Abbott’s criticism of Australian economists refers to an open letter signed by 13 of Australia’s top economists backing a carbon price.
The letter, published last month, was signed by Chris Caton, chief economist at BT Financial Group; Besa Deda, chief economist at St George; Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac and Mr Eslake among others.
It called for the speedy introduction of a price on carbon pollution, preferably by way of an emissions trading scheme.
“The frustration he has is that he can’t find a single economist in Australia who supports his policy,” Mr Eslake said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/07/01/3258962.htm
Contrarians very good today!
PvO just made the obvious point that with both major parties having the same reduction target of 5%, how can Tone claim the industry is going to be shut down when his scheme aims to reduce emissions by the same amount?
Dee@5099
That’s a big mistake by Abbott in my view. It’s like demanding, “Come on all you experts, tell me where I’m wrong.” How can he win that challenge?
PvO also says that Abbott’s scheme is far more costly compared to a carbon price. Says Abbott should just say he doesn’t accept the science of AGW, that this would be more honest.
confessions
I am inclined to view the current state of play through the prism of both Tingle’s musings and Elder’s recent commentary.
Is this why the ACT Liberals were scamming money meant for the poor?
Canberra Times, 22 December 2009
[ACT Liberals run out of cash
The Canberra Liberals’ finances appear to be in trouble, with the party having no money in the bank and a significant bank overdraft debt at the end of the financial year, documents obtained by The Canberra Times show.]
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/act-liberals-run-out-of-cash/1711072.aspx
[I’m trying to put myself in the shoes of sensible business leaders who are prepared to cop a carbon tax but one which is more like the CPRS than something the Greens would agree to.]
Many business groups including ACCI and the Minerals Council were extremely vocal in their opposition to the CPRS, even the amended version.
If they are now so worried about a Labor-Green ETS, they should’ve supported a Labor-Liberal ETS.
What is going on is exactly the sort of rent seeking that Garnaut warned about in his final report:
[The really big cost (of not implementing a market mechanism) would be the entrenchment of the old political culture that has again asserted itself after the late 20th century period of reform. The big rewards in low-emissions investments would go to those who had persuaded the minister or the bureaucrat that their idea was worthy of inclusion in the direct action plan—if not under the government that introduced the direct action policies, then under the governments that followed. That would entrench the return of the influence of the old Australian political culture in other areas of economic policy.]
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/garnaut-review-2011/chapter12.html
[PvO just made the obvious point that with both major parties having the same reduction target of 5%, how can Tone claim the industry is going to be shut down when his scheme aims to reduce emissions by the same amount?]
I think that is what Ross Garnaut asked Abbott straight after Abbott had just slagged of Australian economists.
You can hear the start of Garnaut’s question if you listen very carefully to the end of this audio clip:
http://soundcloud.com/latikambourke/tony-abbott-sledges-australias
comfessions
I have not seen the show, but it appears not even PVO can spin Abbott’s position on his policy.
As I said earlier, if Uhlmann says there is trouble in the coalition, I am inclined fo agree. or it could just be wishful thinking!!
Former senator and leader of the Australian Democrats, Andrew Bartlett’s perspective on how the Greens might fare with the Senate BoP.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/greens-learn-from-history-on-handling-balance-of-power/2213265.aspx?storypage=0
He notes:
[The Greens also have something the Democrats never had much of namely significant experience over many years in almost all state and territory parliaments, including in balance of power positions (not to mention minority government situations with both Labor and Liberal), as well as many people in local government positions….
….. it also clearly gives the lie to the caricature of a party that is little more than a bunch of flakes or extremists who can’t be trusted to handle real power and responsibility.]
I saw a comment today, somewhere? about business leaders just back from the UK & Europe where they report NO ONE is worried about or even mentioning the *carbon tax* realities they face. Its all water off a ducks back *over there*.
But it still feels like 1975 to me here.
Chris Kenny just said Abbbott should accept the MRRT and pass it.
😮
[Many business groups including ACCI and the Minerals Council were extremely vocal in their opposition to the CPRS, even the amended version.]
Sure. But surely there were also those sectors which sat quietly hoping Labor would cut the deal with the Turnbull-led coalition. Those groups must be furious at how things have turned out.
confessions
What program is Chris Kenny saying this?
first day of new world order
except for franks banning
🙁
it is all going swimmingly
btw
shows
you finding abbo ‘satirical’ is a new low even for you
victoria,
Abbott had a chance to contribute to the design of a carbon priceing scheme but rejected it.
AIG released a report today by Ernest & Young ( I think ) giving the ” Carbon tax ” into a ETS a big tick. However, it also advised the government to be cautious and ensure compensation was large enough to protect exposed industries. Heather Ridout supported the findings of the report.
THe CC package will happen and business is starting to realise this and the fact that they have no direct input into the design apart from consultation with the government ie no one to represent them at the table.
This can all be put down to Abbott and his no no no approach. The threat by sections of business to campaign against the CC legislation is at this stage nothing more than that, a threat. Only time will tell. However, any monies they spend on it will be wasted. THe legisalation will go through. Despite what the MSM say, this government will not back down on this or much else anymore I suggest.
Combine this realization with the constant negativity about the economy by Abbott will slowly bring it all to a boil. Abbott has done them no good and will continue to do them no good. THe bottom line will determine what business does and if Abbotts actions affect their bottom line he will have to go.
How this all interplays with the battle going on inside the party and the right wing control of the party now under the stewardship of Minchin, Robb and co will be interesting. This is especially so with the push for IR reform.
I have no idea what will happen but the next few months will be interesting.
Personally, I hope Abbott holds on with the support of Minchin/ Robb until early next year at least. This gives the coalition less and less time to get their act together and move back from the right wing/tea party tactics they now employ and the lack of focus on deep, well considered policy formulation.
victoria:
The Contrarians on Sky.
securency is bad news for the fibs
think siev x but on a financial scale
Here’s the deal. I’m on holiday at the moment. I will not again be making the mistake of letting Frank run loose when I can’t keep an eye on him. To those who are indignant about this – seriously, what the hell is wrong with you. To those angry I didn’t ban Abbo as well – I did. I didn’t see what he’d done wrong exactly, but sensible people were saying I should. I’m working off a Blackberry here which is very cumbersome, so pardon me if I’m cutting a few corners. In a few hours I’ll have a proper computer and will do a new post and maybe tidy this thread up a little.
william
fair enough then
More admirable subtlety from News Corp: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/greens-world-has-dark-side/story-fn6bn88w-1226085160227
confessions@5124
What does that mean? The new MPC policy should mirror the CPRS?
Anything we do needs to be real, not tokenism. The ‘needs’ of current ‘sensible business leaders’ are secondary to the needs of the Australian economy in the longer term.
As Andrew Crook pointed out today:
“The CPRS was purpose-designed to stifle any carbon price until beyond 2020, with some of the world’s richest multinationals scoring hundreds of millions of dollars in handouts.”
The minority government and the Greens’ and indies’ role has ensured the CPRS will be improved upon.
Doyley
Great analysis.
As I mentioned today, I am conflicted about Abbott remaining leader. As much as he sickens me, it is in Labor’s favour if he remained leader a while longer.
confessions
Goodness me. Chris Kenny must be getting desperate about Tone!
William
Enjoy your break. We will do our best to behave!!
[THe CC package will happen and business is starting to realise this and the fact that they have no direct input into the design apart from consultation with the government ie no one to represent them at the table.]
I agree with this. Abbott isn’t promising any agreement with the govt, so let them spend their millions on advertising which will do nothing.
victoria:
PvO just put Truss’ failure in govt over live cattle trade to Chris Kenny, who had nowhere to go but to agree.
!!
[“The CPRS was purpose-designed to stifle any carbon price until beyond 2020, with some of the world’s richest multinationals scoring hundreds of millions of dollars in handouts.”]
This is nonsense. Australia is so heavily reliant on coal that cuts are hard for us. Garnaut points out that even achieving a 5% cut on 2000 levels by 2020 would be a good achievement.
Climate Spectator, 1 July 2011 – Not as hard as it looks:
[..Sometime in the next week or two, as the Greens take their influential position in the Senate, and the negotiated agreement on a carbon price is finally unveiled, we will find out if that really was a choice well made.
The signs are that it will be. The fact that we are having a discussion at all about the carbon price is due to the leverage that the Greens and the country independents brought to the table. The benefits of a carbon price, that mysterious commodity that dared not be spoken of before the polls, are now self evident.]
“Here’s the deal. I’m on holiday at the moment.”
For William.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbajf_rHzys