Newspoll and Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

On voting intention, the latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than usual: they trail the Coalition 55-45 on two-party preferred, their primary vote is down a point to 30 per cent, and the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 46 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. However, it seems just about every poll has an added sting in the tail for Julia Gillard these days, and this one finds her recording yet another slump on her personal ratings, which are now at a disastrous 28 per cent approval and 62 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott by contrast is up four points on approval to 39 per cent, although his disapproval remains steady at a thoroughly unimpressive 52 per cent. Worst of all for Gillard, Abbott now leads her as preferred prime minister for the first time: 40 per cent to 39 per cent, compared with Gillard’s 41-38 lead last time.

The latest weekly Essential Research survey also has the Coalition 55-45 in front, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (down one) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down one). It too has its own particular sting for Julia Gillard, finding Labor would be leading 53-47 if Kevin Rudd was leader from primary votes of 45 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent for the Coalition. However, it also finds the Coalition would be much further ahead (59-41) under Malcolm Turnbull than Tony Abbott, so it is likely there is a fair bit of mischief-making by partisan respondents going on. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that there is an eight-point difference in the results for the two Labor contenders against a four-point difference for the Liberals.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments, responding to the assertion of Dennis Shanahan in The Australian that “only Paul Keating has had a worse personal rating than Gillard’s today”:

Depends how you measure it, but:

• If measured by net satisfaction there have been 18 worse results. One by Howard in 2001, one by Hawke in 1991 and the other sixteen by Keating, but six of Keating’s were before the election that he won. This is also true if measured by disapproval rating.

• If measured by approval rating there have been 19 worse results. One by Hawke and eighteen by Keating with eight of Keating’s before the election that he won.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,332 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 107
1 2 … 107

  1. I reckon the Rudd/Gillard finding has a lot more partisan mischief in it than the Turnbull/Abbott one – I think there are substantial numbers of voters who would only still choose Labor under Gillard because the alternative is not just the Coalition but a Coalition led by Abbott specifically.

  6. [but the 2PP is strangely omitted from the story.]

    Possibly because it’s more of the same as usual? Awful figures for Labor. What would adding the 2PP figures do?

  8. Again it’s the Greens that are holding up the Carbon Price agreement in the committee stage, which then holds up the full explanation re the Carbon Price and compensation which gives free air to the Shock Jocks and the OO.
    Anyone who believes the new Senate in July will make it easier for Julia Gillard and the ALP Government has rocks in their head.

  12. [latikambourke | 59 seconds ago
    It’s a bit in-house, but Parly rules have huge impacts for you and us. Eg #qt only possible because of devices recently allowed into gallery]

    [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    So the Parly review could be a good or bad thing, but after the #spills they could be looking to clamp-down on which areas we can work.]

    “Looking to clamp down”?

  13. Muskiemp

    The reason the polls are where they are is that Gillard had lost the trust of the public, to promise there will be no Carbon tax under a government I led going into an election, to win a mandate on no Carbon tax, then to backflip over the carbon tax within 2 months after the election, is that main reason the ALP had lost all credibility with the voting public.

    And if you look at polling history, ie GST, Howard’s worst poll was found after the introduction of the GST, where people were paying more at the supermarket, the petrol store, the power bill etc, this disprite there being massive tax cuts for everyone and removal of sales tax, so I would expect even worst result after the Carbon tax start to bite.

    While both Howard and Keating had worse polls, most people respects Howard and Keating, the same cannot be said for Gillard

  14. morning

    7.00 macquarie radio sen (sports station) leads with Abbott being preferred PM and then has audio of Joe Hockey (from qanda) saying that this govt will not last two years as it is too unstable. tell me that the msm does not set the narrative??!!

    Anyway looks Like Abbott is going nowhere. Turnbull and Hockey must be pleased 🙂

  17. kinkajou

    Nice to see party loyalty

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 3 minutes ago
    [Peter Reith says TAbbott asked him to run for the top job [Liberal Party Presidency]. (Abbott then went on to support Alan Stockdale)]

  18. LATIKAMBOURKE | 3 minutes ago
    [Peter Reith ‘he [Tony Abbott] asked people around him to join in my campaign,’ says TAbbott didn’t ring and tell him he would vote against.]

  19. for people like Itep. I am posting tweets from Latika. she is reporting on Reith who is currently speaking to ABC national radio

  20. [Peter Reith says TAbbott asked him to run for the top job [Liberal Party Presidency]. (Abbott then went on to support Alan Stockdale)]

    Abbott thought Reithy would win in a canter. Showing his ballot paper to Stockdale was insurance in case things didn’t go according to script.

    Fairly obvious to me.

  22. LATIKAMBOURKE | 3 minutes ago
    [@sandraom I think its a bit more than that. From what I’m hearing, much anger about TAbbott’s inexplicable change of mind. Eg weathervane.]

  28. Well, I just don’t give the polls much credibility. I’ve only ever been called twice by poll people – the first time I was told I was in the wrong demographic and the second time I was told they didn’t want any more labor voters.

  29. [Again it’s the Greens that are holding up the Carbon Price agreement in the committee stage]

    The Greens aren’t at the table just to tick off on whatever the ALP imposes. They’ve got every right to push every step of the way to get the best outcome for their supporters and the country. Whether or not this damages the ALP in the opinion polls should be of no concern to them either.

  30. victoria,

    I wonder if the media will talk about Peter Reith’s article and Joe Hockey’s claim of sacking 12,000 if the Liberals were to win the next election.

    Though I am positive we’ll hear plenty about Abbott being preferred PM by one solitary point. Funny, how it’s taken this long, and with the media’s help, for Abbott to finally get there.

  31. [mumbletwits Peter Brent
    Bernard Keane’s Essential report wording best: “voters say they’d” vote such and such”, not “voters would” vote such and such.]

  33. [The Greens aren’t at the table just to tick off on whatever the ALP imposes. They’ve got every right to push every step of the way to get the best outcome for their supporters and the country. Whether or not this damages the ALP in the opinion polls should be of no concern to them either.]
    Except this helps the LNP not the progressive parties.

  34. I reckon the Rudd/Gillard finding has a lot more partisan mischief in it than the Turnbull/Abbott one – I think there are substantial numbers of voters who would only still choose Labor under Gillard because the alternative is not just the Coalition but a Coalition led by Abbott specifically.

    If people think the public wont elect Abbott remember how often Howard was returned to power. The public can and will elect Abbott as must be abundantly clear by now due to very long series of bad and worsening polls for Labor.

    Perenial nervous budgies the backbenchers will start squarking very soon, and if you start to hear about ‘leaked’ internal polling……..which has to also be at historic lows and focus group results that …….

    There is only one thing that has been protecting the leadership and that is the loonies who put them there will want to keep them there or else admit they may a disastrous mistake.

    SO if the destruction of Gillard is on the cards any time soon expect it to be preceded by some heavy smearing of Rudd.

  36. GrogsGamut Greg Jericho
    @
    @mumbletwits yep – the gap between “say” and “would” is rather wide.

    This really is denial.

    The polls have been a disaster just about from day one of the change in leadership, and have gotten worse. You could not get a clearer signal from the public of the intention to not vote Labor, and now that they really dislike Gillard to boot.

  37. Lenore Taylor with some tidbits on the Climate Commitee

    [
    The car makers’ bid came as the multi-party committee considered a deal for the struggling steel industry. The deal falls short of the industry’s demand for a total exemption but offers aid similar to the 95 per cent free permits under the carbon pollution reduction scheme and help with emission-reducing investments.

    After weeks of informal discussions the committee will meet formally today as Ms Gillard promises low-income households a ”battler’s buffer” of 20 per cent more compensation than the average flow-through cost of the carbon tax.

    Figures released with the carbon pollution reduction scheme showed many low-income families would have received even more compensation under that scheme.
    ]

    http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/car-makers-push-claim-for-pollution-tax-compensation-20110628-1go0x.html

  38. madcyril

    Thanks. It would be nice to finally get all the details. It would certainly give all the sectors certainty

  39. TP

    Abbott will be the next PM. Feel better now?

    This is not about me.

    This is about the blind not wanting to see that Gillard has been and is a continuing disaster as is the Labor Party the way it is controlled from behind the scenes.

    The ‘blame’ for the current situation can only be placed on the performance of the current leadership.

  42. TP

    Of course this is all about you. You never discuss policy. You carry on ad nauseum about Gillard being the leader. Guess what? Whoever the Labor leader is right now, they as a party would be struggling!! Get it!!!

  45. An interesting study on public reactions to displays of toughness by male and female political candidates. From the abstract:

    [The conventional wisdom is that female politicians are greatly constrained by a toughness-related double bind: if a woman fails to demonstrate toughness, she confirms a stereotype that women are not strong enough to lead; yet if she demonstrates toughness, she will be disliked for violating gendered expectations.

    Although this double blind is commonly seen as a principal challenge facing women on the campaign trail, political scientists have neglected to evaluate this issue empirically.

    With a large-N, representative sample of U.S. adults, this study utilizes a survey based experiment to thoroughly test the conventional wisdom. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, female politicians do not suffer a disproportionate penalty for acting in a tough manner; in fact, this analysis shows that tough women benefit on several key measures relative to tough men.]

    http://themonkeycage.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Deb-J-Brooks-Double-Bind-APSA-DC-2010-2.pdf

    I wonder if you’d get similar results in Australia?

  48. TP,
    [This is not about me.]

    Really and truely?

    [This is about the blind not wanting to see that Gillard has been and is a continuing disaster as is the Labor Party the way it is controlled from behind the scenes.]

    It is more about the blind not able to see that if it hadn’t been for Gillard we’d already have a disasterous Abbott Govt.

  49. Boerwar

    Scratch the surface of the coalition, and what you see is a rabble. But of course, Australians are not looking underneath.

  50. ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 3 minutes ago
    [Did Reith just say we cant have a rerun of the Fraser years??? Cause who was treasurer then??? #auspol]

    ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 2 minutes ago
    [#auspol Oh dear! Reith calling Abbott ‘he’ and ‘him’. Having trouble to say his names]

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 107
1 2 … 107