On voting intention, the latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than usual: they trail the Coalition 55-45 on two-party preferred, their primary vote is down a point to 30 per cent, and the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 46 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. However, it seems just about every poll has an added sting in the tail for Julia Gillard these days, and this one finds her recording yet another slump on her personal ratings, which are now at a disastrous 28 per cent approval and 62 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott by contrast is up four points on approval to 39 per cent, although his disapproval remains steady at a thoroughly unimpressive 52 per cent. Worst of all for Gillard, Abbott now leads her as preferred prime minister for the first time: 40 per cent to 39 per cent, compared with Gillard’s 41-38 lead last time.
The latest weekly Essential Research survey also has the Coalition 55-45 in front, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (down one) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down one). It too has its own particular sting for Julia Gillard, finding Labor would be leading 53-47 if Kevin Rudd was leader from primary votes of 45 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent for the Coalition. However, it also finds the Coalition would be much further ahead (59-41) under Malcolm Turnbull than Tony Abbott, so it is likely there is a fair bit of mischief-making by partisan respondents going on. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that there is an eight-point difference in the results for the two Labor contenders against a four-point difference for the Liberals.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments, responding to the assertion of Dennis Shanahan in The Australian that “only Paul Keating has had a worse personal rating than Gillard’s today”:
Depends how you measure it, but:
• If measured by net satisfaction there have been 18 worse results. One by Howard in 2001, one by Hawke in 1991 and the other sixteen by Keating, but six of Keating’s were before the election that he won. This is also true if measured by disapproval rating.
• If measured by approval rating there have been 19 worse results. One by Hawke and eighteen by Keating with eight of Keating’s before the election that he won.
Abbott and his shock jock pals and the New Ltd media have talked this economy down.
People aren’t shopping.
People aren’t buying houses.
It’s hard to find a job.
Mortgage stress (for those who own a home) is rising.
Pensioners are shoving chairs up against their doorknobs in case the Muslim STB installer comes calling.
Gerry Harvey is whingeing (again).
John Symonds is doing little new business.
Small business is hurting.
And they’re all waiting for an election that isn’t going to happen.
They all believe (or at least fervently hope) that Gillard will somehow implode and resign in favour of Abbott and his rabble.
They think the Governor General should call in the army.
The deny Climate Change, despite the overwhelming opinion of scientists, whom they slag off as bludging bloodsuckers off the public tit.
Now ditto for economists.
And actors.
The country is in a state of suspended animation, expecting the impossible to occur.
As I have said many times: there are consequences to all this negativism.
We are seeing them now.
confessions
PVO must know something. It sounds like he did a good job of whiteanting his own party
ShowsOn
The Treasury modelling doesn’t suggest its hard for us at all. There is virtually no difference in impact between 5% and 25% by 2020. There has never been a reason to quibble about the targets.
Gillard Labor’s problems started almost the moment she took over and have being going bad since.
I wouldn’t be fooling myself that Gillard Labor’s problems are all because of the Carbon Tax itself.
The harm that the Carbon Tax issue did to Gillard was the perception she was a liar over it, not the tax itself. The perception of deceit over this issue played into an already negative perception over some of Gillard’s personal characteristics, and particularly the stigma she carries over the way she came into the job.
Abbott is flogging a dead horse on the Carbon Tax as a great big new tax etc. The issue with it is the perception of dishonesty and trust, and I suspect they will again take that issue up again with Gillard.
Gillard is very vulnerable to issues that raise questions of loyalty, legitimacy and truthfulness. The Liberals and their media will be focussing on that in direct and subtle ways from hereon I would imagine. Gillard and her minders ought to carefully think out her approach from hereon to avoid traps to do with these issues.
Is there any way a cook can describe brown without preceeding it with “nice”?
ie
Get the onions nice and brown
Heat the sugar till it is nice and golden brown
All we are doing is getting the outside nice and brown
etc
I suggest a new english word
niceanbrown: a cooking term used when browning.
[jaundiced view
Posted Friday, July 1, 2011 at 2:55 pm | Permalink
daretotread@4539
Richo is for Richo and has a very odd past. Anyone hanging around NSW lefty ALP circles in the 1970s will know the allegations of his activities- Godfather is a rather apt title. Since I do not wish to share my bed with a horses head I shall say no more.
Feel sure JV can add something
In the interests of horses keeping their heads on I can say only this:
Richo must just have been unlucky that so many people in the party got threatened and bashed around him at the time of his state secretary-ship.]
Wow. I wonder if I had a narrow escape myself back in the 70s. As an SA Tourism bureaucrat I went to Sussex to get some stuff that Don Dunstan himself wanted. Don’t know exactly what it was and I didn’t look into the envelope.
I’m pretty sure it was Richo himself I saw there (not a legend then but pretty well-known if a little leaner). He got the stuff and handed it to me, and then remarked and chortled,
“Gorgeous Dunny! Heh! Heh! Gorgeous Dunny!”
It was the first I knew that he was aware of the nickname. Either he was a reader of “Nation Review”, or the Hepworth joke had spread pretty far and wide through Labor circles.
I didn’t feel uneasy at the time, but maybe I should have.
[ABC NewsRadio were claiming ‘about 1000?, which I’d thought was a bit high on past carbon protest efforts. I wondered if Jones in his new hat as leader of the Galileo group had managed to dredge up a few more. But on your estimate, rosa, about 300.]
If I was hearing properly, the 8:30 news break ABC sydney said it was 2000. Obviously the Magic Pudding syndrome has hit the ABC as well as the Libs.
Victoria – I very rarely watch Sky, but did so very briefly about 4:30 pm.
No doubt at all where chris kenny is coming from.
Clicked it off with a memo to myself, I should have known better than to watch it to start with.
So be it.
bushfire
apropos your swmbo experience the other day
a mate of mine started work with a mob recently
the hr bimbo spent half the 1 hr induction slagging off JG
she has been reported to the union
apparently she is a known offender
If Gillard had not wanted an ETS she would have gone on telly and promised that there would be no carbon tax and no ETS under her government. But she did not say that.
The ALP wants an ETS soon and we are going to get one soon.
We just have some kind of stuffing around with a confusingly separate fixed price period because there is a minority government.
William,
I object to Abbo’s name. I cannot see anyone with Aboriginal heritage being comfortable posting on a blog where people go by a name which for decades has been a derogatory term for aboriginal people. I know I am making an assumption there, not having such heritage myself but that is my concern.
puff
actually the insulting spelling would be A*O
Of course, I could be overlooking the possibility that Abbo is an Indigenous Australian making a point through irony.
dave
It appears that today’s offering of tne Contrarians might have been worthwhile
This article speaks of a US politician who”bows down before the military in a way which many Americans now find embarrasing” and never makes a speech on defence without invoking “God” and seeking his blessing on the military…Who is it ?????
Who else but the” Great Hope ” Barack Obama…who as Tom Engleghardt a US writer says now outdoes Bush in his admiration for the US Empire…..
http://www.amconmag.com/blog/the-militarized-surrealism-of-barack-obama/
Gus,
True, but the Urban Dictionary also uses ‘abbo’. Either way, I do not want to hear the word in my mind every time I see his posts.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/06/doing-the-math-on-news-corps-disastrous-myspace-years.ars
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-the-fall-of-myspace-2011-6?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=SAI%20Chart%20Of%20The%20Day&utm_campaign=SAI_COTD_062911
Dr Good@5164
Dr Good
Repeating this balderdash doesn’t make it true. We would be seeing no legislative action whatsoever on carbon emissions reduction in this parliament if either major party had won a majority. Gillard was party to shelving the CPRS in April last year and in the election campaign ruled out a price on carbon and obviated any action in this term on climate with a back pass to a ‘Citizens’ Assembly’. Why you party minions can’t accept the truth is beyond me sometimes. It doesn’t help the party improve (not that it will from here).
puff
I wasnt approving the alt spelling
just see it a simple sign that the person is trying to inflame
jv
you have proof to back your claim?
BB @ 5155, couldn’t agree more!
I think it’s time for a new reality show: “STFU and Live A Little Already!”
Today’s Contrarians would have benefited from having one person talking at a time.
Mr Kenny rarely talks. He diatribes. If he doesn’t like what he is hearing from the other panellists, which is often, he diatribes over the top of them. Occasionally the others were able to interrupt Mr Kenny’s interruption but that was the exception, rather than the rule: Mr Kenny diatribes.
Mr van Onselen needs to instil a bit of discipline.
The most striking thing about today’s Contrarians was that Mr van Onselen launched into quite strong criticism of Mr Abbott.
[in the election campaign ruled out a price on carbon and obviated any action in this term on climate]
Gillard clearly stated she wasn’t ruling out a market based approach like an ETS in the term during the election period but ruled out a carbon tax.
Puff TMD
I think it is carrying third party sensitivity way over the top to suggest that ‘Abbo’ the poster’s appellation is offensive. There is nothing in the posts themselves that suggested any deliberate racial offensiveness. Quite the contrary in fact given the humanitarian approach to refugees, for example. The surname ‘Abbott’ can carry that nickname for example. 😀
Boerwar:
Agree about Kenny. He’s like Kelly O’Dwyer: simply shouts over the top of others. Very poor behaviour.
Boerwar
PVO criticising Abbott is interesting. As I mentioned, perhaps PVO knows something?
If my math is right, Australia’s contribution to the Greek bail out is about AUD$600 million.
george
Do you feel that here in Melbourne people are behaving as BB describes?
The problem with the Empire
_________________________
A US academic looks at how the collapse of the US economy and the Empire effects the world…and that includes us !
http://www.counterpunch.org/naylor06302011.html
William
I’ve always taken the approach that this is your turf, and you make the rules. We have to play by those or go elsewhere.
However your comment on “not being able to see what abbo had done wrong”.
Seriously? At first I thought his/her/it’s moniker was a play on “abbott’ rather than “abo” so I didn’t take too much umbrage at it. The posts though were offensive in the extreme, and seemed to be designed more to wind up certain regular posters, (including, but not limited to Frank), than contribute anything to the discourse on this blog.
My two cents worth.
[Do you feel that here in Melbourne people are behaving as BB describes?]
Not really – a lot of people are still going on holidays, eating out (restaurants/cafes around here are pretty much full day/night) and most of the shop owners along toorak rd/chapel street are doing well. Not many vacancies that I can see.
I don’t come across anyone who goes on about “my electricity bill is high”, but around here I don’t there are many worried at that level. Their complaints are more about school fees and the like.
[If my math is right, Australia’s contribution to the Greek bail out is about AUD$600 million.]
How did you get that figure?
ltep
The plan was to start considering what the Citizens Assembly came up with in 2012. Imagine the carry-on after that in getting an actual plan finalised. I don’t think anyone can suggest that the concept was anything but a no action policy. It was clearly an alternative to action in this term.
[The posts though were offensive in the extreme, and seemed to be designed more to wind up certain regular posters, (including, but not limited to Frank), than contribute anything to the discourse on this blog.]
I would agree with that
considering frank is in a wheelchair….
how anyone could find abbo’s posts satirical is beyond me
🙁
cuppa,
If you have a link to Jen’s petition I will tweet it for you.
JV
You are just stating claims without evidence. If you really want to justify your beliefs why not take up my invitation and explain why Gillard made that particularly worded promise rather than ruling out an ETS and a tax?
I am basing my explanation on publicly agreed facts. You seem to just repeat some counterfactual claims over and over without evidence.
Sometimed it is important to line your theories up with the evidence.
BTW if you are calling me a minion then I don’t think that attempted abuse is helpful.
Especially if I don’t know what you mean.
dr G
jv is a shoot first, ask questions later kinda peep
george
Same here. Maybe Melburnians are not infected with the same negativity as other places.
Gillard neither ruled in nor ruled out an ETS pre-election.
gus,
JV’s got a gun……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqQn2ADZE1A
I have not carefully read the posts by the poster with the offensive name but from what I saw there seemed to be some obsession with suggesting all sorts of people should ve subjected to corporal punishment. Possibly someone more at home on some right wing blog.
Dr Good
See my #5187
Remember that the same ‘hollow men and one woman’ who dumped carbon action in April last year are still there leading the party. They have only agreed to action because of the minority agreements. Surely Labor people are not going to start saying it was all Gillard’s idea? But no, of course they will. 😀
If you not a minion I withdraw it and apologise.
Gusface@5189
Yep. They were motivated to draw a response and were reposted to draw that response.
I hadn’t put together abbo to abbott before Dan’s post above.
Exactly Dio. Those are the facts. Why go to particular lengths to rule out a Carbon Tax but not rule out an ETS unless you were planning to start bringing in an ETS?
gg
dog days just begun……
I’m nodding off. Night all.
SK
Just tweeted the link to jen’s petition to you.
gus,
Hooray!
Night BK!