Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 54-46 to 53-47, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition is down one to 46 per cent, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 34 per cent and 12 per cent. As Bernard Keane reports, voters were also asked who was to blame for rising cost of living, which produced results dramatically polarised by voting intention, with Liberal supporters blaming the government. There are also questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which finds Labor going further backwards on economic management but the results otherwise showing little change since January. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents say the minority government arrangement has been bad for the country against 28 per cent good, with Liberal supporters predictably being most negative. I should have the full report up within the hour.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,142 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 103
1 2 3 4 103
  1. [Actually, this meme started last week, with that tweet about “a couple of Labor backbenchers” at some parliamentary function who were said to be mouthing off about Gillard.]

    The story was also rubbished by a Labor MP who attended said function

  2. 84 – Well it may be a concern in the sense that it seems she isn’t cutting through as well as they had hoped she would.

    But still, I agree to change leaders again would be suicidal.

  3. [And Greg Combet at his presser just said “well, I speak to Liberal Party front benchers”]

    Gotta love Greg!

  4. Now that Abbott and some commentators are pushing hard for Nauru to reopen I wonder what will happen if agreement is reached with PNG to reopen Manus Island as part of any regional strategy ?

    What argument will they come up with to oppose that after pushing for a centre to be reopened elsewhere.

  5. [What argument will they come up with to oppose that after pushing for a centre to be reopened elsewhere.]

    It doesn’t really matter how pathetic the argument is. The MSM will dutifully support it and continue to bash the government.

  6. [oneschris79 Christopher Jones
    @TurnbullMalcolm – terrible article, lacking facts and full of ill-informed assumptions. Please don’t spread this stuff.]

    who is Chris Jones please?

    victoria – the story on ABC was that the backbenchers are telling Abbott they are unhappy with JG over the Malaysia deal. He hasn’t put it in writing so obviously it is untrue!

  7. BH

    it so happens that Mellissa Parke Labor MP has been speaking out about children needing to be protected. She so happens to be Combet’s partner. Can you imagine her being friendly with Abbott at the moment?

  8. re the leaking backbenchers: I would have thought that if they were so mouthy at such a public function then their names would be in the public domain at the time, twitter being what it is.

  9. victoria – I think what Melissa Parke said is OK and I’m with you. I doubt she’d be talking to Abbott – she’s a modern woman so probably sees him as archaic.

  10. What a shock Tony Kelly MLC in NSW has just annouced his resignation from Parliament having just been re-elected at the March election.

    No power no glory and no guts for the hard yards in opposition.

  11. [“Growing calls for a new election” Headline on Sky News.
    FFS!!!]

    “Growing calls” – just spectacularly pathetic

  12. The next one will be that some ministers are talking about a change of PM. All PB’ers open your eyes to how this works. Abbott or someone plants an idea out there. It starts as a whisper. It will be picked up by one or two media . It starts to get discussed on a forum such as this then it develops a momentum all on its own.
    It is all bull and to talk about it is giving it momentum. There will be others like it but just remember the game they are playing and refuse to discuss it. Otherwise you are giving credence to something that is smoke and mirrors.

  13. “Anonymous sources that may or may not have originated from within Australia, originally delivered via email before being faxed after being photographed directly off the computer screen via the Russell Street internet cafe, say that there are growing calls for an election…”

  14. [“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”]

    Could it be that the Multi Party Committee is considering upping the target and the Libs are trying to get on the bandwagon before the final decison is announced in July.

  15. [“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”]

    so – let me get this straight – the oppos want GREATER cuts for a CRAP thesis?

    they didn’t do well at LOGIC 101

  16. [“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”

    Could it be that the Multi Party Committee is considering upping the target and the Libs are trying to get on the bandwagon before the final decison is announced in July.]

    BH

    I read an article the other calling the groups that have aligned together Getup, Greenpeace, Environment groups etc, a ‘coalition’.

    If that is what they are referring to in that article, then they have once again been misleading.

  17. [“Growing calls for a new election” Headline on Sky News.]

    I fully expect ABC 7pm news to carry a similar angle.

  18. [they didn’t do well at LOGIC 101]

    Logic doesn’t enter into it. If it did, they’d have been scrutinised LOOONNNGGGGGG before now on this issue. As it is, the press are just giving the Libs a free run, on everything!

  19. The Coalition are all sick in the head. How can they cut emissions by more than 5% on their farcical so called Direct Action policy without placing a bigger burden on the budget.

    Dumbing down politics in this country has hit record lows, thanks to a moronic opposition and a just as dopey main stream media.

  20. [The Coalition are all sick in the head. How can they cut emissions by more than 5% on their farcical so called Direct Action policy without placing a bigger burden on the budget.]
    In order to cut more than 5% I would think that it would be an exponentially higher tax burden.

  21. 121 BH
    Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 4:12 pm | Permalink
    [“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”

    Could it be that the Multi Party Committee is considering upping the target and the Libs are trying to get on the bandwagon before the final decison is announced in July]

    BH, earlier today I asked who had made the statement you are quoting. It was tacked on the end of an ABC news item and wasn’t attributed to anyone. Where did it come from?

    I have heard Greg Hunt on radio today and he didn’t mention it. So, where the hell did it come from?? The ABC need to be asked about this.

  22. [ok – that at least makes some sense]

    Otoise

    But I can remember reading that article when it was linked the other day from the ABC website, but I am sure the words ‘say yes’ were missing.

  23. Evening all. Back from a tour down south: Main anecdotal findings:

    ‘Federal Labor Government’ and ‘waste’ are synonymous.
    There is lots of economic and personal financial gloom and fear.
    Many small businesses are either just coping or struggling a bit.
    Well less than five per cent understood the carbon tax.
    Folks are over the Afghanistant War, even the ones who used to be for it.
    The jury is still out on Mr Baillieu but there is not much sense of how inspirement.
    General puzzlement about wtf is happening cf police management in Victoria.

  24. We already had an election.

    The election was held in August 2010. That was 10 months ago. The people had their say.

    Julia Gillard is now negotiating for a price on carbon in accordance with the result of that election.

    The Liberal Party must accept that Julia said there would be no carbon tax BEFORE the result of the election was known.

    Now Julia is acting in accordance in which the people voted at the last election.

    So the main stream media, Rupert Murdoch’s rear enders, Tony Abbott and his coalition can go and do you know what to yourselves!

  25. 130 blackdog
    Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 4:27 pm | Permalink
    [The ‘Say Yes’ coalition wants the government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.

    I think this is what they mean. It is completely wrong to use the Coalition name without expanding further]

    Christ, now it makes sense. Thanks for that blackdog. It’s been troubling me all day.

    I’m depressed enough as it is – after my absolute high last night from attending the rally – without having to deal with that BS.

  26. [And the mystery is solved! Thanks for that.]

    confessions

    My pleasure.

    I think there is still a little mystery. As I said above that link is from the newcastle ABC, but I am sure reading it on the main ABC website the words ‘say yes’ were missing.

  27. blackdog@134

    ok – that at least makes some sense

    Otoise

    But I can remember reading that article when it was linked the other day from the ABC website, but I am sure the words ‘say yes’ were missing.

    They fixed it – “Updated 51 minutes ago”

  28. wtf.

    You can’t even go the bloody football without having military things rammed down your throat.The insidious militarization of our society continues.

    The Hawthorn footy team wore what amounted to a camouflage-style football jumper for a special ‘Kokoda Trail’ match with the Dockers on Sunday.

    Mr Baillieu is reported to be intent on giving police the power to do on-the-spot fines for swearning. Around $240 a go, apparently. Oh, and he is introducing double jeopardy. Goes with Mr O’Farrell’s mandatory life sentences for those convicted of murdering a police person.

    The reactionaries are in full flower. They just love the uniforms. The next thing is that they will try to reach for our nether regions. They just love to control other people’s procreative parts.

  29. [confessions
    Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    How on earth can the coalition be rated better economic managers after the debacles which have been the hole in their budget, the stuff up over finding savings to avoid a flood levy, their appalling budget replies (incl Hockey’s woeful performance at the NPC), and the holes in the costings over their climate policy?]

    As BK said afterwards, it simply wouldn’t stand up to any serious scrutiny. It does confirm, however, how completely switched off the public is about day-to-day politics.

    Just consider: the Budget was just presented. Apart from the ridiculous hysteria about penalising the battling $150,000 income-earners, it has generally been perceived as responsible. The Opposition Leader didn’t even touch on it in his Address-in Reply; the Opposition Treasury spokesman barely touched on it in his NPR address and “stood by” the absurd cost over-runs in his election campaign ‘cost savings’ program; neither them or any other senior opposition member has asked a question about the Budget during Question Time, and yet …

    The shadow Treasurer uses the MPI abuse to move an urgency motion against the government to address the grave state of the economy. This is the party that the average punter thinks (sic) is better able to handle the economy? Cheesh!

  30. 139 blackdog
    Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 4:34 pm

    [I think there is still a little mystery. As I said above that link is from the newcastle ABC, but I am sure reading it on the main ABC website the words ‘say yes’ were missing.]

    That should be entered on Jenauthor’s petition. Talk about dishonesty, which is not supposed to be part of the ABC charter.

  31. mytwobobsworth @ 103:

    Whereas Abbott can only get the attention of the ALP back-bench (which in any case I very much doubt), the Member for Charlton by-passes the Tory minions & goes straight to the front-bench.

    A great rejoinder from a class-act.

  32. bob katter says he has had 26 th hits on his new party web site
    has any one had a look says his policies are there.
    you know this could do damage to the opp., any thoughts on this

  33. The fact is people will get their chance to vote on the CT again at the next election.
    Yes, it will be in by then but that just gives the people a chance to make an informed decision rather than a decision based on inaccuracies and fear.

  34. Surely the headlines should be:

    Despite at election 10 months ago, Abbott wants to spend millions on another.

  35. [Julia Gillard is now negotiating for a price on carbon in accordance with the result of that election.]

    i heard some one say we actually went to the election in 2006 saying this

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 103
1 2 3 4 103