Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 54-46 to 53-47, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition is down one to 46 per cent, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 34 per cent and 12 per cent. As Bernard Keane reports, voters were also asked who was to blame for rising cost of living, which produced results dramatically polarised by voting intention, with Liberal supporters blaming the government. There are also questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which finds Labor going further backwards on economic management but the results otherwise showing little change since January. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents say the minority government arrangement has been bad for the country against 28 per cent good, with Liberal supporters predictably being most negative. I should have the full report up within the hour.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,142 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [Misfit

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese and Bushfire Bill

    You two deserve a medal (one each)

    I listened briefly to MM last night – could only handle about 15 minutes. And it wasn’t just the off-putting MM, it was the freakin’ ads.

    Had to laugh at one caller, Brian??, who went into a rave about the AS and then, lo and behold, says “I’m not a racist, but ..” to which MM soothed, of course not. And then Brian went on to say “I’m married to an East Timorese girl.”
    ]

    That call was classic Liberqal bootstrapping.

  2. [Hi Vera!
    As long as the likes of Mark Arbib are in charge, Labor won’t be reformed!]

    Here we go…

    *sigh*

  3. [Senator Arbib said while he didn’t begrudge Mr Rudd and Senator Faulkner their opinion, he believed the appropriate forum for debate was at the party’s national conference later this year.]

    keep it all swept under the carpet aye? Don’t make waves OR CHANGE
    Wangker! 😛

  4. [5003

    evan14

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Hi Vera!
    As long as the likes of Mark Arbib are in charge, Labor won’t be reformed!
    ]

    What Bullshit.

    Mark Arbib, as a member of the ALP has as much right to comment than any other member.

    So much for your idea of “Democracy”.

  5. [vera

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    Senator Arbib said while he didn’t begrudge Mr Rudd and Senator Faulkner their opinion, he believed the appropriate forum for debate was at the party’s national conference later this year.

    keep it all swept under the carpet aye? Don’t make waves OR CHANGE
    Wangker!
    ]

    Arbib is quite correct.

    The National Conference IS the approprate Forum for such reforms to be discussed – not in the media.

  6. Vera

    [And they wonder why lifetime Laborites like me gave them the flick at the last election with scumbags like Arbib calling the shots]

    There are thousands out there just like you! Maybe we will reap some rewards from John’s entry into the debate.

    Hope you are well!

  7. G’day evan :kiss:

    How ya been?

    Arbib and his cronies don’t do criticism well 😉

    Even when it’s from good blokes like Faulkner

  8. Senator Arbib said while he didn’t begrudge Mr Rudd and Senator Faulkner their opinion, he believed the appropriate forum for debate was at the party’s national conference later this year.

    Well of course. The last thing Arbib wants is open scrutiny of himself and his group. Let all the dirty crap be arranged behind closed doors.

    I’m with Vera, Labor is worthless as it now is.

  9. [david

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    Mark Arbib, as a member of the ALP has as much right to comment than any other member.

    Hear hear
    ]

    Which is my real beef with the usual suspects calling for “Democracy” in the ALP yet want to silence those who don’t agree with them.

    They arre Hypocrites, and Frankly I question these bludgers loyalty to the ALP.

  10. Darn

    [You would think that Labor being behind by a minimum of 10% in the polls in every state and federally having a PV in the low 30s]

    [Dio
    That’s a rank exaggeration]

    Ream ’em and weep.

    Fed Labor pollytrend 32.9%

    Most recent state polls

    Qld LNP 22% ahead
    Tasmania Liberal 48, Labor 25, Greens 22
    SA Libs 20% ahead
    WA Libs 14% ahead
    NSW Libs 40% ahead
    Victoria Libs 14% ahead

    Perhaps you can point out the “rank exaggeration”?

  11. hi Mytwobobsworth

    Doing OK thanks

    the footsoldiers don’t matter to this brand of Labor unfortunately.
    They get offended if anyone makes a suggestion to “move forward” the party

    seems like slogans are just that with no body

  12. I am inclinded to agree with earlier comments regarding their ABC’s cattle story.

    Once again, it was the perfect receipe to beat Labor from the left and the right simultaneously.

    I just think it’s sad when Greens and other lefter leaning folk get caught up in it.

    Same can be said for the Malaysian arrangements. The government tries to move to a protection-focused regional model (rather than an offshore-Australia-only-who-gives-a stuff-about-protection-obligations-Nauru model) and then still the left and Burnside crew bash Labor for it and Abbott and his ilk join in from the right, with their crocodile tears for canned children.

    Refugee advocates have a unique opportunity to support a better deal for asylum seekers in the region (ie. not just those who physically make it to Australia waters) — but they fell right into the trap of purity — laying down with the likes of Abbott and the vile Morrison.

    Just remember, when you lay down with dogs, you get fleas.

    I am sure they will be happier with Abbott as PM — then they really can have something to be outraged about.

  13. The malevolent member for Warringah
    Thought, on Nauru, I will linger
    I’ll take me mate Scott
    The girls think us hot
    But cardinals don’t score, what a stinger.

  14. tasmania the greens 22 and labor 47 so the hare clarke sytem

    and the election is over 3 years away.

    why do you people bother go and find your own blog then you can all be happy

  15. KEVIN, VERA dear ,has said quite plainly he does not want to be PM

    give him break will you , he is happy where he is even if you are not step in to the real world of kevin, he one day will be head of the Un say in about 6 years may be.

  16. Most recent state polls

    Qld LNP 22% ahead
    Tasmania Liberal 48, Labor 25, Greens 22
    SA Libs 20% ahead
    WA Libs 14% ahead
    NSW Libs 40% ahead
    Victoria Libs 14% ahead

    People obviously don’t think Labor stands for anything. That fairly damning and even worse taking into account the destruction Gillard’s leadership has wrought on Labor’s standing.

    All pretty sad stuff. No doubt Labor will spend another decade in opposition until the wake up again and produce another Rudd.

  17. Darren

    [You just love it, don’t you Dio.]

    The numbers are what the numbers are.

    If people want to say that 10% is wrong, they need to look at the numbers first.

  18. Vera

    [the footsoldiers don’t matter to this brand of Labor unfortunately]

    They do to some who are prepared to go into bat for them.

  19. deblonay @ 4949:

    Thanks for your post.

    I don’t pretend to know much about Chinese history. With that caveat in place, apart from Tibet I’ll take your word for it re. China ‘having no history of imperial expansion.’

    It is of interest to note how quickly China’s economy grew to become the second to the US. And, it is forecast by some that it’s military will “arguably” match that of the US in some twenty years. Its need for natural resources to keep apace with its military and economic growth is therefore crucial.

    It should also be said that the Chinese Mandarin class shut out Western influence in the period when the industrial revolution was gaining pace. Apparently the powers that be thought Western influence would affect their authority.

    It is against this backdrop that it can be said that China’s economic and military growth in the space of some two generations is indeed miraculous.

    China is certainly the major regional power and the only nation capable of curbing any imperialist designs is the US, even if, as you contend, it has not shown any historically.

    Australia’s national security is in my view indelibly linked with the US and the ANZUS Treaty formalises it, although it’s a moot point if the US would come to our defence if its own national security is not at risk – a matter which has been the subject of much academic debate.

  20. ah lets all leave and they can chat among them selves till the cows come home.

    well the cows are home and Julia did the correct thing,. Vera what do you want from Julia. why dont you tell us your plan for the labor party you seem to know all about it.
    tell us we would love to know
    have you been to Georges site and left a few remarks whats the saying put your ideas or say nothing.

  21. my say
    [why do you people bother go and find your own blog then you can all be happy]
    “You people”?? Who are they?

  22. [Darren Laver

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    I am inclinded to agree with earlier comments regarding their ABC’s cattle story.

    Once again, it was the perfect receipe to beat Labor from the left and the right simultaneously.

    I just think it’s sad when Greens and other lefter leaning folk get caught up in it.

    Same can be said for the Malaysian arrangements. The government tries to move to a protection-focused regional model (rather than an offshore-Australia-only-who-gives-a stuff-about-protection-obligations-Nauru model) and then still the left and Burnside crew bash Labor for it and Abbott and his ilk join in from the right, with their crocodile tears for canned children.

    Refugee advocates have a unique opportunity to support a better deal for asylum seekers in the region (ie. not just those who physically make it to Australia waters) — but they fell right into the trap of purity — laying down with the likes of Abbott and the vile Morrison.

    Just remember, when you lay down with dogs, you get fleas.

    I am sure they will be happier with Abbott as PM — then they really can have something to be outraged about.
    ]

    Exactly,

    I can also see a pattern with certain patterns who are more happy to have a Coalition govt in power so they can feel morally superior.

    They aren’t “True” ALP Supporters in my opinon – they use their support and/or membership as some sort of “Status symbol of being “Progressive”, yet when th Party does do the right thing they complain.

  23. Frank

    [Which is my real beef with the usual suspects calling for “Democracy” in the ALP yet want to silence those who don’t agree with them.

    They arre Hypocrites, and Frankly I question these bludgers loyalty to the ALP.]

    I agree to some extent; Rudd was not keen on dissent and democracy at all. That seems to have been forgotten by some.

  24. [why do you people bother go and find your own blog then you can all be happy]
    Hey Thomas Paine
    I think they mean us!!!
    😆

    my say

    I don’t think Kevin would want to be in charge of the mess that labor has become
    Hell I wouldn’t wish that on anyone
    not even my worst enemy

    And I am still quite enamoured with Kevvie 🙂

  25. There was a gal from Nowra,
    and her name is Vera,
    She loves Kevin,
    and I dont mind Julia,
    But we are still the Amigos of Australia.

    :kiss:

  26. [KEVIN, VERA dear ,has said quite plainly he does not want to be PM

    give him break will you , he is happy where he is even if you are not step in to the real world of kevin, he one day will be head of the Un say in about 6 years may be.]

    My Say is spot on.

    Mr Rudd is Foreign Minister, and is very happy to be so. He has no desire to return to the Prime Ministership. He had his turn and now concedes his talents lie more in the foreign policy domain.

    Why the likes of Vera, Evan and assorted other resident stirrers here keep slandering Rudd in trying to lobby for his return to a job he does not want is beyond me.

    Julia Gillard is our Prime Minister and is doing a great job at implementing key Labor reforms and legislation, in line with the party platform. The Government is no longer obsessed with silly irrelevant leads in opinions polls but is focussed on delivery — is not this what you were all calling for not so long ago?

    You cannot win with people who actually want Abbott as PM, I so recognise my foolishness in indulging these tr**ls.

  27. vera kevin was the mess dear he was the mess backed down on so many issues.

    well thats where we will leave this, why do you have to come here stir things up.

  28. why do you people bother go and find your own blog then you can all be happy

    Yeh, your sort are not welcome around these parts pardner.

    Never saw the advertisement that this was a Labor only happy clapping site.

  29. Hey Thomas Paine
    I think they mean us!!!

    Vera, I suspect you might be right.

    Oh well, this nail is going to keep sticking out.

  30. I can remember not that long ago that to say anything against senator Faulkner would be sacrilege. Now when he is speaking not in tune with the factions he is getting dissed.
    Seems he must be on the money.

  31. Making a direct comparison between Liberal and Labor primary votes is no longer particularly relevant. The real thing is Labor Primary + Greens Primary (times around 80% preferences). That gives you the Australian centre-left vote.

    That said, the centre left vote is not polling particularly well. Nor is it as bad as the Jeremiahs would like you to think when they get you to focus on the Labor primary vote.

  32. RNM1953

    I wrote the backstabbers a little note on my HOP ballott and voted Sex Party or another minor party in the senate (can’t remember for sure)

    I vote Democrat in the upper house in the NSW election

  33. Julia is picking up the pieces ,

    the man is happy but thats some thing you dont seem ,why dont you be happy for kevin,
    [Julia Gillard is our Prime Minister and is doing a great job at implementing key Labor reforms and legislation, in line with the party platform. The Government is no longer obsessed with silly irrelevant leads in opinions polls but is focussed on delivery — is not this what you were all calling for not so long ago?

    You cannot win with people who actually want Abbott as PM, I so recognise my foolishness in indulging these tr**ls.]

    Ok Darren whos going to win our of Melbourne and Collingwood tonight.

    my oh is melbourne, had last week he didnt go for them other wise we would of had 8
    lets change the subject to the real world shall we

  34. Just home.

    Shopped. Got a tin of Nescafe (I know, bogan) for $10 on special. Yes! Win to me.
    Fire’s going. Update on our budgie: Still surviving (found out that one of the kids sprayed him/her with lice stuff the day before the head drooping) although still spends most of time with head to one side – still, glad OH didn’t wring its neck.

    And kids and OH out for the evening.

    Where to begin … gunna say something shortly to Thomas Paine and Diog.

  35. [According to ABC Radio some kind of Mining Tax has been agreed to!]

    I think draft legislation has been put out for public consultation.

    But yes, again, Gillard Labor moving ahead with reforms.

  36. [According to ABC Radio some kind of Mining Tax has been agreed to!]

    The MRRT discussion paper has been released. I linked to a report of it earlier.

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