Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 54-46 to 53-47, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition is down one to 46 per cent, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 34 per cent and 12 per cent. As Bernard Keane reports, voters were also asked who was to blame for rising cost of living, which produced results dramatically polarised by voting intention, with Liberal supporters blaming the government. There are also questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which finds Labor going further backwards on economic management but the results otherwise showing little change since January. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents say the minority government arrangement has been bad for the country against 28 per cent good, with Liberal supporters predictably being most negative. I should have the full report up within the hour.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,142 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. BB

    I have difficulty reading what you have had the misfortune of listening to. Life is too short. For your health’s sake, give it away!!

  5. gus

    there was a young poet named Gus
    Whose verse is incredibly suss
    the more he did try
    with nary a lie
    the more he became a big wuss

    ( for poetry virgins, this is called an eye-rhyme, see w blake)

  7. bk

    phew

    just for you

    there once was a girl called soph

    who had it more than moaf

    a radiant aphrodite

    she sure could get shitey

    and scare a puff adder

    ken oath!

  8. Actually I don’t mind the Contrarians. Bramston is a very good foil for Leeser and PvO is is quite a reasonable compere. Usually it is quite entertaining – but not when Chris Kenny is on.
    Leeser, although he is from Menzies House, is not one of those really nasty types (a la C. Kenny).

  11. There was an old Scot named McTavish,
    Who attempted an anthropoid ravish.
    But the object of rape
    Was the wrong sex of ape,
    And the anthropoid ravished McTavish.

  13. vic
    It’s still going. The PC report was “devastating” for Abbott’s direct action plan. A bit of argey bargey over other aspects of the report.

  15. Gusface – On that performance Otiose is Shakespeare, you’ll have to be the Earl of Rochester with that stye.
    😀

  18. Appears it is a day for replies from Politicians. This one from Greg Combet’s office.
    My original mail follows the response…..

    Dear David,

    Mr Combet enjoyed your comments and asked me to thank you for taking the time to write to him.

    As you would be aware, the Government is still developing the carbon price policy, and negotiations are still taking place through the Multi Party Climate Change Committee. The Government hopes to be in a position to release the details of the policy soon.

    In the meantime, I can assure you that Mr Combet will continue to work hard to introduce the Government’s plan to put a price on pollution, tackle climate change and move to a clean energy future.

    You are quite right, this important debate must be underpinned by facts, not fear, such as the campaign we are seeing from the Opposition leader. Remember, Tony Abbott, won his job as Opposition Leader by being a self-described ‘weathervane’ on the issue, but in reality he supported carbon pricing in the 2007 election when both Liberal and Labor supported a price on carbon, and has since staked his leadership on denying both mainstream science and mainstream economics.

    Thank you again for your support of this very important policy.

    Yasmin Catley

    Office of the Hon Greg Combet AM MP
    Federal Member for Charlton

    Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

    and my original….

    From: David [mailto:d+++++++++++]
    Sent: Friday, 3 June 2011 2:32 PM
    To: Combet, Greg (MP)
    Subject: Garnaut report

    Dear Mr Combet

    May I congratulate you on your personal contribution to the climate change debate, your understanding of the overall science and your excellent efforts during Question Time, particularly your handling of the Leader of the Opposition

    I did wish to raise a point regarding the overall Governments immediate public reaction to the Garnaut Report this week.

    I and many of my collegues and friends are somewhat perturbed as to why many in the Government rushed to diffuse Garnaut’s message

    My listening to the Oppositions reaction to the report, indicated they were at a loss as to how to respond and resorted to misrepresenting the content of it. Surely the Govt should have been out in the public arena flaying them with it.

    Unfortunately the impression out here in the electorate is, the Government is still trying to be too nice, there is not enough mongrel in many of the front bench and some of the usually better performing labor members, particularly during media interviews and press conferences. Although to be fair it is getting better.

    Hopefully the worm is turning and despite the efforts of “their ABC” and Murdoch’s mob, to prop the no hoper Abbott up, Ms Gillard and the team will see better days soon. There is a very loyal hard core of Labor supporters out here, with many others who may have left in 2010 but are on the fringe, they I am convinced do not want a bar of this hopelessly inadequate Opposition.

    Thanks again Mr Combet for your efforts, as a fellow Union person of many years standing, I had no doubt you would be more than a match for the stupidity and complete inadequacy of Tony Abbott. The man is a joke, sadly a very bad one. Your response yesterday in the House that Abbott was gallivanting around the country in a shrill and hysterical fashion making out he was the worker’s friend when in fact he was one of the principal advocates of Work Choices, was timely. Also your response, ” I’m not frightened of you, mate.You have got to be kidding. You’ll have no clothes.”.. to what must have been an attempted macho smart verbal at you, hit the mark, good on you.

    Looking forward to the complete package and success of Carbon Pricing, be assured the majority of the country does agree with it, despite the negativity from the Opposition.

    Very Best Wishes

    Yours Sincerely

    David L++++

  21. Must admit I love it when I see a tweet from a PB’er on Q&A or Sky.

    SK is prolific and really work the twittersphere really well. I cant stand twitter but enjoy the tweets that are posted here.

    good work guys, keep it up.

  22. oti

    there was once a man named greg’s

    who could never be mistaken for a keg’s

    altho a falsetto

    he obtained machismo

    at least among the msm dregs

  25. [Admittedly Howard did make some dubious appointments to the board and management – Newman, Windschuttle & Scott. But if you judge bias by the measure of complaints, they are apparently evenly balanced.]

    The only accurate way to assess bias is by examining intention, and by using other ways of assessing communication to assess that – examining sense,, feeling and tone. Using “complaints”, or “time given to words or appearances”, or even “counting words” in no way evaluates the impact of the way words are chosen, and the vocal intonations (+ “non-verbals” on video) with which they are delivered.

    Actors wouldn’t have spent the last however many centuries reinterpreting Ancient Greek dramas, Shakespeare, Voltaire, Pinter and others, if mere words were the only vehicle of vocal and visual communications – probably no better example than Hamlet’s “Words. Words. Words” speech to Polonius. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_qRvheXEYk&feature=related

    The most obvious ABC bias is detectable in the observable differences in feeling, tone and word choice & positioning between those used with regard to Opposition figures, especially Abbott, and those used with regard to government members (inc Indies), especially Gillard and Swan. So obvious is it that Ali Moor copped a serve from the next guest about her treatment of his predecessor.

    We saw a change between 7.30’s Uhlmann’s early, aggressive, talk-over-the-top attempts to monster senior ALP figures; then a quite sudden tempering to something approaching good manners – so stark people noted on a number of blogs & comment columns that he must have been hauled over the coals.

    Last night, we saw the opposite when the normally courteous tried to monster Greg Combet – silly choice! Read the transcript, then watch the video, on the same page! http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3240275.htm The printed transcript does little to convey the video’s feeling, tone and possibly intention

    No way bias can be judged by “balancing” statistics, like counting the number of complaints!

  27. there once was a guy, call him Greg
    his own thesis he always did beg
    to differ alone
    on orders from Tone
    so sounded confused and a SMEG

  29. Dr Good
    .
    “Electric cars produce more emissions than petrol ones”
    .
    Yes and BUT. Yes they need alot of energy to make the batteries BUT it depends if that energy was from coal fired power stations or say geothermal. Then there is the benefit of not fumigating all and sundry with the exhaust fumes which give cigarette smoke a good run for it money. Diesel fumes in particular cause many deaths.

  30. [poroti

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Mark Tomasz
    .
    “And….folks, the West continues its Love In with the cattle industry this morning…with the header: “Grazier blames bleeding hearts for ruining rural incomes – Cattle ban costs me $70,000 every day.”
    .
    They were a perfect match for the “family farm” bushie their ABC had on yesterday morning. Three properties and 40,000 head of stock.
    ]

    WA 7.30 Tonight is also ging for the Love in.

    It makes me puke.

  33. [“And….folks, the West continues its Love In with the cattle industry this morning…with the header: “Grazier blames bleeding hearts for ruining rural incomes – Cattle ban costs me $70,000 every day.”]
    To me this guy looks like a very good target for a tax audit.

  35. [4698

    zoomster

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    j.v.

    so an unelected group of party elders – chosen by whom? certainly, as an active party member, I wasn’t involved in their selection – should have their recommendations accepted, no questions asked, no discussion entered into.

    Anyone who questions their recommendations on any grounds whatsoever is dismissed as a factional hack.

    Doesn’t sound like a democratic process to me.
    ]

    Hear Hear.

  36. shellbell

    [ he is left faction I think]

    He is and if he gets the Leadership in the Upper House I am guessing it may be a first for the left.

  37. Oz Pol

    You would also need to add in the substance of what the subject matter is saying and the method of how he or she is saying it; the assumption being that the interviewer should be reactive and not passive in the process.

    Taking a neutral example, if Quentin Dempster interviewed Pauline Hanson tonight on stateline and started mocking her about her Supreme Court action, nearly all here would say “Good on ya.’ rather than saying he is biased to whoever.

    The problem is less extreme examples confound the analysis because personal bias would influence how we view the substance of what is said and how it is said by the interviewee. Those who support the Malayasian solution, for example, would be more tolerant if Chris Bowen was non-responsive to questions about its future etc and minded to think bias if he was pressed aggressively on the subject matter. Those hostile to it would think bias if the interviewer was passive so as to allow long speeches on the matter etc

  38. Gus – have just been invited out for dinner so can we leave the shockjock til next week when I can listen in. Taa muchly.

  39. MTBW

    Foley’s is a rapid rise to an elevated position – I think he will try and move to Legislative Assesmby in 2015

  40. NSW Labor couldn’t do worse than replace Robertson with Foley as Opposition Leader – Foley regularly gets himself on the nightly news, more than you can say for Robbo.
    Steve Whan is a genuinely talented fellow.
    It’d be great too if they could somehow get David Borger back into the fold.

  42. 4976 Dr Good
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
    [Electric cars produce more emissions than petrol ones]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/electric-cars-may-not-be-so-green-after-all-says-british-study/story-e6frg8y6-1226073103576

    Interesting article, Dr Good, but the comment 6 more so:
    [I’ve read it, they’ve (properly) included measurement of carbon produced in the electric vehicle & battery manufacturing process but have (improperly) failed to include manufacturing carbon input on the other side for conventional vehicles. basic stuff missed suggests to me an ulterior motive. Who funds this mob?]

    If this person has given an honest account, sounds like another beat-up by the anti-carbon industry!

    On the other hand, it has always seemed a bit strange to me that to recharge a battery you need an electricty supply from a .. a…. power station, so where’s the saving? Comment 6 (and some others) seem to give a good answer. Thanks for posting the link.

    Some claiming that

  47. shellbell

    [Foley’s is a rapid rise to an elevated position – I think he will try and move to Legislative Assesmby in 2015]

    Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see that happen. He appears to have both a passion and a soul and they are what we need.

  48. evan

    [It’d be great too if they could somehow get David Borger back into the fold.]

    He is a good bloke as well and has actually lived a life that wasn’t all milk and honey so he is street smart.

  49. Frank Calabrese and Bushfire Bill

    You two deserve a medal (one each)

    I listened briefly to MM last night – could only handle about 15 minutes. And it wasn’t just the off-putting MM, it was the freakin’ ads.

    Had to laugh at one caller, Brian??, who went into a rave about the AS and then, lo and behold, says “I’m not a racist, but ..” to which MM soothed, of course not. And then Brian went on to say “I’m married to an East Timorese girl.”

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